Penn State by the Numbers

Last week Indiana pretty much acted true to form.  Unfort UM did not hold its end of the bargain in the front 7 so IND wildly exceeded their rushing projection but generally aside from that (and another special teams derp) Indiana's strength and weaknesses played out as the numbers indicated.

Let's look at what PSU is good and not so good at.

Things PSU is Good At

PSU's offense doesn't do much well.  They don't get to the red zone often, but much like UM they are excellent once they get there in converting.  The lack of interceptions stands out; Hack's year reminds me of Stafford's 2014.  He went from a high risk guy to one who has been coached to take less chances so less INTs but this also limits whatever upside he has most games.  When Hack does complete a pass it does go for a good # of yards as PSU has some big play capability in players like Godwin.

PSU's D is good, especially the front 4 which is elite.  The DLs of the East are stacked - you could make a case for OSU, MSU, PSU, or UM in any week being excellent.  PSU has 2 bad a$$ DTs in Zettel and Johnson and they have the nation's leading sack artist in Nassib.  Cole and Magnuson struggled vs similar edge players from MD and MSU.   They are a chaos defensive line much like MSU - lots of penetration and disruption and lead the nation in sacks and and are #2 in TFL.  Unlike MSU,PSU actually has valid secondary players but the pressure from the DL obviously helps any secondary look better than it might otherwise be.  They cause turnovers, especially fumbles.  You can run on PSU to a degree if you have a good run game.... but looking at UM's inability to run on one of the worst run defenses in America last week, that is not going to be much of an option.   This is going to be tough sledding for UM's offense and Jake has to have a good game.

PSU does do some of the little things well- i.e. they have a great turnover margin that is based on both not turning the ball over much and creating turnovers.   They also don't get penalized much.  This helps offset their derp offense.  Half their special teams is competent as well.

Things PSU is Not so Good At

PSU is bad at offense.  Their 3rd down conversion % is 2nd worst in all of FBS so UM should get them off the field often.  Both their passing and rushing offense are 89th or worst.  They do have a good freshman rb in Saquon Barkley who didnt start from day 1 and then was out injured a few games so the rushing stat is a bit deceiving but the passing stat is not.  Looking over Hack's stats he has not completed more than 54% of his passes in Big 10 play more than once.  That's bad.  But hey at least he doesn't throw INTs.  The OL is better than last year but that is like saying the 2014 UM line was better than the 2013 UM line - low bar.  They still are among the nation's worst in P5 in TFL and sacks allowed.  UM must take advantage of that and put PSU in long 2nd and 3rd downs.

As noted earlier PSU has a very good D - the one area to exploit is in the red zone which just so happens to be an area UM O excels.

A few weeks ago this would look like a decided special teams advantage to UM but no more as the coverage teams are scuffling the past few weeks.   So unlike in the MSU game we cannot just expect UM to offset a good defense faced by having very short fields constantly.  But we do need some good special teams play.

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Overall, PSU's O reminds me of something between Minnesota and Northwestern- take that as you will.  I expect them to try to run with their good rb on a non Glasgow DL and hope to get into space vs our LBs.  Their D is very much like MSU's on the front end with competency in the back end.  UM will struggle to run in non Jake, non Peppers, non end around ways so we'll need to work thru the air.  Maybe some screen game to try to offset PSU aggressiveness.  But the OL will be stressed constantly by that very disruptive DL.  UM should likewise cause lots of issues for PSU's meh O.   Let's not make Hack look like Gary Nova 2014 in this one.  Points will be at a premium.