Penn State by the Numbers
Last week Indiana pretty much acted true to form. Unfort UM did not hold its end of the bargain in the front 7 so IND wildly exceeded their rushing projection but generally aside from that (and another special teams derp) Indiana's strength and weaknesses played out as the numbers indicated.
Let's look at what PSU is good and not so good at.
Things PSU is Good At
Natl rank | Value | ||
Offense | |||
Passes Had Intercepted | 5 | 3 | |
Passing yds per comp | 30 | 13.56 | |
Red zone Offense | 12 | 91.7% | |
Defense | |||
Fumbles recovered | 8 | 10 | |
Passing yds Allowed | 2 | 159 | |
Scoring defense | 13 | 17.7 | |
Sacks / game | 1 | 4.2 | |
TFL / game | 2 | 9.3 | |
Total defense | 13 | 311.2 | |
Misc / Special Teams | |||
Fewest Penalties/Game | 27 | 5.2 | |
Kickoffs returns | 28 | 23.4 | |
Punt return defense | 32 | 5.3 | |
Turnover Margin / game | 18 | 0.7 | |
Turnovers gained | 29 | 19 | |
Turnovers lost | 19 | 12 |
PSU's offense doesn't do much well. They don't get to the red zone often, but much like UM they are excellent once they get there in converting. The lack of interceptions stands out; Hack's year reminds me of Stafford's 2014. He went from a high risk guy to one who has been coached to take less chances so less INTs but this also limits whatever upside he has most games. When Hack does complete a pass it does go for a good # of yards as PSU has some big play capability in players like Godwin.
PSU's D is good, especially the front 4 which is elite. The DLs of the East are stacked - you could make a case for OSU, MSU, PSU, or UM in any week being excellent. PSU has 2 bad a$$ DTs in Zettel and Johnson and they have the nation's leading sack artist in Nassib. Cole and Magnuson struggled vs similar edge players from MD and MSU. They are a chaos defensive line much like MSU - lots of penetration and disruption and lead the nation in sacks and and are #2 in TFL. Unlike MSU,PSU actually has valid secondary players but the pressure from the DL obviously helps any secondary look better than it might otherwise be. They cause turnovers, especially fumbles. You can run on PSU to a degree if you have a good run game.... but looking at UM's inability to run on one of the worst run defenses in America last week, that is not going to be much of an option. This is going to be tough sledding for UM's offense and Jake has to have a good game.
PSU does do some of the little things well- i.e. they have a great turnover margin that is based on both not turning the ball over much and creating turnovers. They also don't get penalized much. This helps offset their derp offense. Half their special teams is competent as well.
Things PSU is Not so Good At
Natl rank | Value | ||
Offense | |||
3rd down conversion % | 126 | 28.3% | |
Completion % | 100 | 54.1% | |
Fumbles lost | 93 | 9 | |
Passing Offense | 89 | 207.4 | |
Rushing Offense | 97 | 143.2 | |
Sacks allowed / game | 120 | 3.3 | |
TFL allowed / game | 109 | 7.3 | |
Scoring Offense | 93 | 25.2 | |
Total Offense | 103 | 350.6 | |
Defense | |||
Red zone Defense | 121 | 92.3% | |
Misc / Special Teams | |||
Blocked kicks Allowed | 98 | 3 | |
Kickoff return defense | 118 | 25.8 | |
Net punting | 89 | 36.1 |
PSU is bad at offense. Their 3rd down conversion % is 2nd worst in all of FBS so UM should get them off the field often. Both their passing and rushing offense are 89th or worst. They do have a good freshman rb in Saquon Barkley who didnt start from day 1 and then was out injured a few games so the rushing stat is a bit deceiving but the passing stat is not. Looking over Hack's stats he has not completed more than 54% of his passes in Big 10 play more than once. That's bad. But hey at least he doesn't throw INTs. The OL is better than last year but that is like saying the 2014 UM line was better than the 2013 UM line - low bar. They still are among the nation's worst in P5 in TFL and sacks allowed. UM must take advantage of that and put PSU in long 2nd and 3rd downs.
As noted earlier PSU has a very good D - the one area to exploit is in the red zone which just so happens to be an area UM O excels.
A few weeks ago this would look like a decided special teams advantage to UM but no more as the coverage teams are scuffling the past few weeks. So unlike in the MSU game we cannot just expect UM to offset a good defense faced by having very short fields constantly. But we do need some good special teams play.
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Overall, PSU's O reminds me of something between Minnesota and Northwestern- take that as you will. I expect them to try to run with their good rb on a non Glasgow DL and hope to get into space vs our LBs. Their D is very much like MSU's on the front end with competency in the back end. UM will struggle to run in non Jake, non Peppers, non end around ways so we'll need to work thru the air. Maybe some screen game to try to offset PSU aggressiveness. But the OL will be stressed constantly by that very disruptive DL. UM should likewise cause lots of issues for PSU's meh O. Let's not make Hack look like Gary Nova 2014 in this one. Points will be at a premium.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
So, the answer is M00Ps?
November 19th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
I think PSU will be able to run on UM some this game without Glasgow and with Barkley. PSU run stats are deflated a bit because he is a true freshman who didnt really win the job until game 3 and then went out for 2 games I believe with injury. Barkley had his best game vs OSU with 194 yds on 26 carries. He has toted it at least 20x in the last 4 games.
Hack is a wildcard - he has only completed > 54% more than once in Big 10 play (Ill) but when he does complete it can be a big play so UM needs to avoid busted coverages or derp safety plays by Thomas or Hill.
On our side I just think its going to be on Jake's shoulders as I dont see our run game doing much. And the OL's shoulders. Peppers hopefully with some impact. Will be curious to see how much time Jake has to make throws.
Feels like a 17-14 type of game.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^
Or perhaps P00M, the Portuguese word for fart.
November 19th, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^
Watch the Bubble Boy's dad from 1:30-1:42. Some awesome acting there.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^
November 19th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
as a fairly low scoring affair after reading this. I think turnovers will be huge, and hopefully we can create a few this week.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
At 7-3, PSU is guaranteed to finish the regular season with a winning record. Beating them on the road would be the first time since 2010 (at ND) that Michigan has gone on the road and beaten a team that finished its regular season with a winning record. Didn't happen a single time during Hoke's four years. The best we managed under Brady was beating one or two 6-6 teams.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^
November 19th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
Depressing stat.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
Thank you for confirming one of the dozen reasons this game has me so scared.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:27 PM ^
I love Don because he always put up negative stuff to make me seem like a sunny side up type of poster.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
The good cop/bad cop routine works every time.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^
wow, I know I've seen this stat, or similar stat, before but it just amazes me every time. Hoke coaches teams just didn't have the confidence/ swagger/ determination to win on the road against good teams.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^
I don't think confidence, swagger, or determination had anything to do with it—if they did, planting the stake at MSU would have resulted in victory.
They simply weren't good enough at football, either the playing or the coaching.
Swagger and confidence without actual achievement to back it up is just running your mouth.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^
Appreciate these posts. Next year, however, when you compile them, could you switch the "National Rank" and "Value" columns. I think it reads more naturally that way. If you, or others, disagree, please disregard.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^
I like the rank 1st becuse it shows you immediately where a stat ranks nationally and that is the main point of the post - to see what a team excels or sucks at. The last column is just sort of a data point if you are interested in what a ranking translates to in football terms.
November 19th, 2015 at 1:44 PM ^
... and look at the data point for an idea of significance...
Example, the National rank for Sacks for and Sacks against doesn't tell tell as much as comparing their averages per game for both...
November 19th, 2015 at 12:27 PM ^
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November 19th, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
Good weekend to bring them back for a one-off for better contrast.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^
Penn State has not done terribly well against good competion, losing to both OSU and NW, not that I'd put OSU and NW in the same class, and their win over Indiana was when Indiana was short Sudfeld and Howard. In PSU's three losses, in two of their games, OSU and Temple, they were blown out.
Hackenberg seems to have problems when pressured and I'm hoping that pressure is dialed up early and often.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^
Like all mid level teams (goodish but not great) they struggle on the road. NW and OSU were on the road. As was the Temple loss. So all 3 losses on the road.
You see with UM, playing on the road is a struggle as well. We look like world beaters every game (except MSU) at home. We struggles for long stretches on the road.
I've come around to believe home field is worth more than 3 in college as opposed to NFL. Lots of crap teams tend to play half decent at home and average teams tend to play good at home. Meanwhile on the road they play to form.
This PSU team feels a lot like a typical non 2011 Hoke team but with a bit better defense due to so many NFL guys on their DL. Those Hoke teams sucked on the road but usually (until last year) put up some fight at home and rose and fell to the competition.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^
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November 19th, 2015 at 12:43 PM ^
This PSU stat gets me excited.
"Kickoff return defense....118....25.8"
Hope we can do some damage on both kick and punt returns.
November 19th, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^
hope we're not returning a lot of kickoffs :)
November 19th, 2015 at 2:38 PM ^
No, but house the 1 kickoff we do get. Something tells me it's possible (cough Chesson Northwestern cough)
November 19th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^
Seems like a matchup where this could be utilized more with PSU's D getting diced by mobile QBs a couple times this year. thoughts?
November 19th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^
If he can throw??
PSU vs OSU was a 7 pt game until Barrett came in in the 4th and OSU just went full spread and he diced them up. Perry Hills from Maryland likewise found lots of success on the ground. Pro style QBs have struggled more as they are stuck in the pocket.
Jake probably gets a few good runs in this game.
November 19th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
I wonder though. I remember army moving the ball reasonably well against them without much threat of a pass. Could just be another wrinkle to throw at them.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
I'm not expecting Denard 2010 to reappear, but PSU will likely not leave a spy on him. If Peppers is out there, they can line him in the slot or at RB and use motion to confuse the defense. Chesson in motion, fake the handoff to either him or Pep and Rudock probably has some green in front of him. I know it's not typically our game, but I'd like to see it either this week or next.
I don't think Travis Wilson is that much faster than Rudock, but he had a big game on the ground because we feared Booker and didn't spy him much. I think we could have similar success.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:43 PM ^
...our regional telecast of the Indiana game nearly outdrew the national telecast of Oklahoma/Baylor.
UM/IU: averaged 5.175 million viewers
OU/Bay: 5.884 million viewers
The source is the newspaper that shall not be mentioned.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
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November 19th, 2015 at 7:15 PM ^
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November 19th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
NOT on a red wheel barrow glazed with rain water beside the white chickens but on whether we rectify some of the D line problems of last week.
Here's my epinion:
1. the D line, with a week to adjust to the new personnel, fares better against a slightly less-powerful PSU run game. Our secondary gives Hackenberg a difficult day.
2. We are a more efficient offense and maintain an advantage there.
We win! Maybe even handily? I think this is a game where things come together after several weeks of struggle.
November 19th, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^
That poem has haunted me since 9th grade.
November 19th, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^
Life, though turbulent, deceptively complex, and at times scary, resolves to purpose and beauty.
November 19th, 2015 at 1:56 PM ^
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November 19th, 2015 at 1:33 PM ^
November 19th, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^
People on this board saying the PSU O-Line stinks said the same thing about the injury plagued MSU line, and we got ZERO pressure on Cook that day. Strobel & Godin need to step their game up bc I am afraid we are going to be on the field a lot on defense bc PSU will snuff out our nonexistent run game, and they should also be able to push our OL back on pass plays bc of their 2 stud DT's.
Prior to the Minnesota game I thought we would win this game with relative ease, but now I am not too sure. I see a very close game.
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November 19th, 2015 at 2:12 PM ^
That was just one of a number of games over the past several years where the conventional wisdom around here was "________'s OL is really lousy and/or banged up, and our DL will have a field day" but it didn't turn out that way. I'm hoping that since PSU is dead last in sacks allowed that it really turns out to be true this time.
November 19th, 2015 at 5:37 PM ^
Seriously?...over the last several years I don't recall many in this fanbase being over-confident about much of anything. Those dark RR and BH years were pretty damn humbling.
November 19th, 2015 at 2:49 PM ^
November 19th, 2015 at 3:30 PM ^
Not overly excited about going against that dline the way our oline/running game has performed.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^
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