This is likely Penn State's biggest home game of the year and the place will be loud. Devin will commit some turnovers that causes every to go on suicide watch. This just feels like a game where we should win, but the road + crowd makes it such that we struggle
Penn State -- Early Thoughts?
Preliminary matchup stats, courtesy of TeamRankings. They have Michigan as the slight favorite in this one:
|Rush Play %||60.30%||50.62%|
|Pass Play %||39.70%||49.38%|
|3D Conv %||53.73%||29.73%|
|RZ Scoring %||90.91%||94.44%|
|Opp Completion %||53.01%||56.89%|
|Opp 3D Conv %||41.10%||29.49%|
|Opp RZ Scoring %||73.33%||85.71%|
That "Defense" row says a lot.
the penn state defense is very good at stopping a third down. The offense is very bad at converting them.
unpracticed eye, than I would like. We'll find out over the next two weeks whether Akron and CT were outliers and whether we're better than those indicate.
I'll say one thing--next Sat. is about as good a litmus for the rest of the season as one could hope for. Beat PSU fairly convincingly and we can all finally calm down a bit more.
I think Michigan has a good chance if they hang onto the football. PSU's defense isn't as good as it usually is, and their offense is seemingly mediocre at best (though they have a very good receiver).
I hate to say it, but I can pretty easily imagine Michigan losing any of the games they have left on the schedule.
Indiana, actually ran quite a bit on PSU, maybe this happened as it was a change up that they didn't expect <shrugs>. If Michigan can win the turnover battle we can win this game. I think Hackenberg is a good QB, but he is still a freshmen. I think mixing up a few blitzes and putting pressure on him will cause PSU's offense to stumble.
Without selling out and leaving another area/player open for O'Brien to exploit .... we will be successful if Hackenburg to Robinson is contained (may not be stopped, but success will be in holding this pair to below average performance). Fortunately Hackenburg is not mobile so that gives us a breather in that department.
PSU is showing some of the weaknesses expected by the gutting from the NCAA unfortunately. Great coach and team but they are getting a little thin in depth.
BTW - Robinson is a high school teamate of Ross (Orchard Lake St. Mary).
Yeah, 40% of PSU's completions last week were caught by Robinson. If we can double him and/or blitz from the not-him side, we could be in good shape. When Hackenberg is pressured, he looks for Robinson, so if we can send a corner blitz from the other side, he'll be forced to find the open guy, which is tough for a frosh QB.
No way. The earliest is likely the MSU game.
According to Hoke's presser (that's going on right now), he's been medically cleared to play, it now the coach's call. So there is definitely a chance. Especially for the Indiana game.
I stand corrected. Now, will he play this weekend? We would all love that, but will Hoke give him one more game off just to be sure? We shall see.
It's amazing how quickly players recover from ACL surgery these days. ACL recoveries used to be a year or more.
Hoke said JR could "potentially play". So, ummm, yes please?
After last week we saw what the Gophers TE did to us on some plays so that is a concern for me after Robinson. Also their RB is a beast and doesnt go down easy. This will be a tough game for us no doubt.
Their RB is a big kid (who we recruited as a LB) but they aren't a very good run team, and they didn't really try to establish the run at all against Indiana despite them having a pretty bad DL. PSU threw it 55 times compared to 38 runs, but it was really worse than that because 6 of those runs were by Hackenberg, all of which were essentially sacks (his long run was 2 yards). Assuming those were all called pass plays, that's 61 pass plays compared to 32 run plays.
So we'll be in a nickel almost all game. At least we won't feel Pipkins's absence since he would barely be on the field.
So I'm in favor of us being in the nickel all day. Penn State's been balanced overall.
That's not true. They were winning halfway through the third and we're only down 4 heading into the fourth. It was a one score game for most of it, so the score didn't dictate the playbook until about halfway through the fourth quarter.
I'm not sure that there are a lot of takeaways from Penn State's game against Indiana, unfortunately. They play such a different offense than us, so any struggles that Penn State revealed on Saturday may not be repeatable for our offense.
On defense it's going to be interesting to see what Mattison does. Unfortunately I see him playing a lot of two deep to prevent Allen Robinson from destroying us in the long game, so we'll have to see if Penn State can sustain long drives. I see them scoring somewhere in the low to mid 20's, so we just have to get above that.
The key will be that the team that scores more points than the other is going to win the game.
Say what you want, it's technically correct, which is the best kind of correct.
and appreciate this contribution! If you have any more insights, either edit and add or post below.
No one is a fan of Maddenisms?
Another passing spread, what is that, 5 in 6 games? (I honestly can't remember what CMU ran).
I haven't seen a ton of PSU but I thought they were more pro-style than spread. No?
they have a very diverse play book, so some pro stuff some shotgun stuff. its more like nfl style offenses kinda like the pats since obrien used to be a coordinator for them.
They are coming off a bad loss, first ever to Indiana, and getting a hated rival at home for a white out game. I think they'll be playing to prove they don't suck and the crowd will be behind them. We need to suck the air out of the building early. If we come out swinging early I believe they'll lay down but if we start slow we are in trouble
PSU press has been trying to generate a rivalry since they joined the league. Until RR Michigan owned PSU and was something like 11-1 or 10-2 against them. The closest thing they had to a rivalry was Little Brother and that was clearly imagined.
Just last summer the PSU press was writing glowing articles about Rutgers and Maryland joining the B1G because maybe next of those schools by geography could be a rival. Right now PSU is the sorta ugly, but not repulsive, girl nobody wants to date but you don't mid being friends with.
One item regarding the "Rivalry" that PSU can point to is being the final nail that got RR fired. Many people, including myself, got off that bandwagon after the debacle of last visit to State College.
If Michigan plays like they are capable and Turnover Santa doesn't have a striped helmet Michigan should win by a relatively comfortable margin.
That 2010 game was brutal. Going in, I really thought it could be the turning point for RR (in a good way) . . . I thought the D would come off the bye week and start to show some life against a depleted PSU offense. And then that happened.
Only N'Western and Ohio worry me. I said that from Day 1, people called NW overrated, but I think they're more than legit.
Saturday was a step in the right direction. Hopefully we can continue to improve in all facets and play to our potential.
I won't click the Free Press link because they suck at life, but clearly M is the better team. Now what worries me is their insane home field advantage. If Devin had difficulty at UConn at night, imagine what MIGHT happen this weekend at one of the largest stadiums in the country.
Hackenburg, like every other new starter is prone to making bad decisions when he feels he has too much time in the pocket. Right now, he's the type of quarterback that likes having his first or second read open and struggles when receivers start running the "get open" play. If there ever was a game to start playing 2 man under coverage, it's this one.
Their secondary is actually not that bad this year but their left side of their defensive line is weak and at least from what I saw, UCF busted many positive runs on that side of the line.
All in all, I think Michigan's offense needs to build a useful play action game to really score against Penn State. The defense should be okay provided that the coverage holds up.
Anyone comforted by the Indiana game needs to remember Akron and UConn. Hackenburg was no worse than Devin has been at times. It's a pick 'em at best.
pretty much nailed it.
is a true Frosh, this will be his biggest game of the season and he's not terribly mobile. This is where Mattison needs to dial up his exotic blitzes and throw a bunch of fake blitzes PSU's way to confuse their QB.
I hate to say it but I feel Gardner's one game turnover-free streak breaking Saturday evening. Later game, white out, loud fans... That's good for a mistake on Gardner's part.
That said, Michigan covers.
I know that I know nothing about how this game will play out.
The tigers aren't on TV?!?!?!?! Terrible...
IT'S A TRAP!
This team got bombed by Indiana last week. Michigan should handle this squad comfortably.
If we can control the ball on the ground, we win. PSU has depth issues, so long scoring drives will kill their defense.
I watched Penn State's game against Central Florida. CFU destroyed their defense all night long. The final score would not have been as close as it was had CFU not snapped the ball 15 feet over the punter's head late in the game giving PSU the ball at the 8 yard line.
I saw a good chunk of their game against Indiana and again, their defense played awful. And IU was shockingly efficient on offense.
Hackenburg is inconsistent. Not surprising since he is a freshman, but he does have his moments. You just get that feeling he'll play much better with a home night crowd. Once again, I see a meh team playing good against Michigan and then going back to sucking the following week.
That was an impressively terrible snap. Usually you see the punter jump. On that one, he just turned and started to run backwards.
I guess the question is do you blitz him hard out of the gate or sit back and see if he makes any mistakes on his own.
I dont see us winning this one. PSU will be on a mission. We will be on the road. That road leads to a big, tough, uncomfortable venue. Given recent performances, I just dont think we are there yet. It will be a close game, but I think PSU gets this one. Of course, I hope I am wrong.
try and contain your optimism, it may be infectious
we should be fine. My convidence in playing like we can isn't all that high though. Also, I just looked it up, and Blake Countess is leading the country in INT return yards so far this year with 149 yards (tied for 1st in interceptions with 4). Pretty cool.
It's not a good idea to take any B1G game as a "gimme."
If I recall, a few years ago everyone predicted a win against them because they were starting a walk on QB and blah blah blah, and we got hosed.
But I think we are on an upswing and we win a tough game with superior talent.
You mean the guy who had thrown 5 passes in his career and then played us and looked like a Super Bowl MVP quarterback? Yeah, that sucked.
Thankfully, we're not taking a 117th ranked defense to Happy Valley this time around.
as a Michigan fan, and I was a Rich Rod die-hard.
which means Matt McGloin is Oakland's full-fledged #2 quarterback right now.
One (inevitable) Terrelle Pryor injury, and the 2010 PSU loss can be explained as a loss to a future NFL starting quarterback!
I traveled to that game with my brother, thinking we'd see a revitalized defense and a Denard show. We pretty much got the latter but holy hell the former was the biggest no-show in the history of mankind.
I finally had it in the third quarter after yet another long, sustained drive by PSU. I lost my mind in the stands and just started wailing to no one in particular. I don't remember half of what I said but at some point the conversation I was having with MGoJen (ran into her at the game) turned to Nick Saban and me exclaming that he would go coach football on the moon if it paid enough.
I also went in 2008 and I'm going this weekend. I can haz good Happy Valley experience?!
But we are taking the same defense that made the QBs from Akron and UConn look very good.
Get off the ladder, turnovers had much more to do with those scoreboards than the defense, yeah, they have been frustrating bending a tad too much, but they haven't broken in any game.
Their QB did not have a great day against us.
But shantel Jennings said he sliced thru our defense and he was the player of the game... lol what a joke.. how do some of these kids get jobs
The Akron QB had a rating of 42.1 in the game against Michigan. I don't know what the UConn QB rating was, but he completed only 50% of his passes for 5 YPA. When you have followed college football for a while, you'll realize that those are not good numbers, let alone "very good" ones.
Chandler Whitmer was absolutely terrible (ESPN QBR of 7.6) and Kyle Pohl, while he did make a few dead-on fly route strikes, only completed 51% of his passes with two picks, one of them being the worst pass you will ever see when he tossed the ball directly to Jarrod Wilson in the endzone.
My first thought is we better
Kick their asses..this is Hokes third year in an established program, while Penn St. is in year 2 with their guy in a program gutted with sanctions.
We are favored by a mere 3 points to a team that IU just destroyed. Seems like a trap to me.
... so we are evenly matched in the bookies eyes.
No, that would mean we are 6 points better in the bookie's eyes.
Yeah but Akron, a game that was a win. Yeah but UConn, also a win. How about this this yeah but Notre Dame and Yeah but Cental Michigan and I will raise you a yeah but Minnesota. I hope all of my "failure" are equally as successful. 5-0 is as good a start as they could have. If someone wants to show me how we could get another W out of those 5 games I'd sure like to know.
Give us a break with the oversimplification. There are 'W's and there are 'w's. Let's not pretend that how a team wins does not influence rankings. And rankings impact bowl games. A great deal of how successul a season is depends on one's bowl game. And that feeds into subsequent seasons in terms of recruiting.
How about we all just chill the fuck out and see how many W's or w's we have at the end of the season. Shit we won some w's during the 97 nat run and I don't hear complaining about that? Id take a w over a lose any day
that is all.
f'd us. But not forever.
General view is we will play the base Mattison defense - give up a good bit of yardage between the 20s, tighten up in the red zone, give up 20-27 pts and be required to score 28+ to win.
Really a lot (all?) of our games are going to be very similar go forward: 0 or 1 turnover, we win - albeit not in emphatic fashion and lots of angst. 2 or more turnover we lose.... with more angst.
I hope to see Funchess permanently moved out to WR to give the other Big 10 defenses something more to do than bracket Gallon and not respect Dileo or Chesson.
from a statistical point of view.
Both teams are equal at Pass Defense (PSU 3rd, UM 4th)
Michigan has a better rushing defense (UM 2nd, PSU 6th)
Both are equally unimpressive running the ball (UM 8th, PSU 11th)
PSU has a much better passing offense than Michigan (PSU 3rd, UM 7th), but PSU Hackenburg has a propensity to get sacked (11 sacks, -88 yrds)
Michigan has the mobile QB and the terror factor (which slices both ways sadly).
I predict PSU plays way above their average on defense and Hackenburg has a great night.
But I think Gardner, Gallon, Funchess and Toussaint have a huge night.
This has "close game" written all over it. Lots of passing, turnovers and lead changes.
Michigan 38, Penn State 34
"This has "close game" written all over it. Lots of passing, turnovers and lead changes.
Michigan 38, Penn State 34"
And then a steady diet of complaining about how our 6-0 team really didnt play that well, were lucky as hell to get out with a win and the overall team performance just didnt measure up to OUR expecations.
In short - another Bitchathon for Brady's kids......
The moving of Funchess (6'5", 235 lbs) outside is huge for Michigan's offense, and for opposing defenses.
Not just because of Funchess himself, but for Dileo and Chesson. And obviously Gallon.
Jordan Lucas 6'0 (starter), 193 lbs.
Trevor Williams is 6'1 (starter), 187 lbs
Devin Pryor 5'10, 174 lbs
Malcolm Willis 5'11, 215 lbs
Adrian Amos 6'0, 215 lbs.
Stephen Obeng-Agyapong 5'10, 205 lbs.
Well, the media keeps shoveling UM fans year after year the notion that their team is loaded with Top 10 recruiting classes (and top 2 BIG10 recruiting classes), and then the football team does an OMG flaming Nascar crash barrel roll to the wall against nancies Akron and UConn in consecutive weeks. Then it takes the UM coaching staff the entire month of September to finally figure out that maybe the interior offensive line needs to be reshuffled?
Yeah, it's all horseshit.
The "a win is a win" works to placate, with a shelf life of maybe another two weeks. After that it's @MSU plus four more games of murderers row in BIG10 play for Michigan, so the real bitching hasn't even started IMO.
I don't think you understand. Bryant has been hurt. They've wanted to use him all along.
Well, the media keeps shoveling UM fans year after year the notion that their team is loaded with Top 10 recruiting classes (and top 2 BIG10 recruiting classes),
Only our current freshmen and (true) sophomores could be considered part of top 10-level classes. The classes above them were never ranked that highly - at least, once you removed all the guys who never made it to campus.
But I think Markus might be referencing the media's ignorance when discussing our recruiting classes. Bryant's injury screwed up the coaching staff's preferred OL lineup; it's clear he would have been starting if healthy, which means Glasgow would very probably have been at center.
He's totally right that whatever bitching we're hearing now pales in comparison to what we'll be hearing and reading if we stumble during the stretch run against MSU and in November. It's telling how the Akron and UConn games seem to have brought the previously silent Mattison and Hoke critics out of the woodwork, and it will be ugly if we lose to MSU and OSU, let alone any of the other supposed lesser conference rivals.
Did we experience growth from Game one through Game 5? It would appear that we have regressed since our first two games, but appearances often are deceiving. The one thing, more important than all others is learning to win. This team has done that effectively although only against one team considered to be among the best 30-35 in cfb. It is, however, very telling that we played probably our best game against that team, the only one clearly possessing more future NFL talent on the field that particular Saturday than we had on that particular day. I'm glad Al dummied down the offense Saturday past because it played a large part in Devin not having his first T.O. since he became a starter. We're riding this kid's shirttails the remainder of the season and I think the playbook is opened wider when competition calls for it. Against ND we had to use much more so we did. When it's time for blitzes, Greg calls them. He tries not to which in itself is a teaching tool and supplies him with a ton of missed assignments by the DL for teaching during the week. This should be another ugly win for us with PSU's qb throwing for a lot, but with us eventually blitzing late to slow him down, and I don't expect to see much more of the offnesive playbook until MSU because as bad as we look, we are good enough to beat most teams on our roster while still teaching these young men who are still learning the fine art of winning. Once that sinks it, it kind of becomes contagious and players learn what is necessary to win by wider and wider margins because confidence in yourself and teammates goes along way in this game. We'll be fine. Hold on tightly and hope for some non-ABC televised games so we don't have to devote four hours instead of the three that should be sufficient.
5:00 pm kick time + Canadian Thanksgiving weekend = FFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
My first inclination about this game is that we should beat them. But this still has upset written all over it. Hoke's teams are just not that good on the road, no matter how you slice it. Penn State will be rocking and this is arguably their biggest home game of the year. I know they got beat bad by Indiana on Saturday, but they will be fired up for this game.
If we don't bring our 'A' game, we will not win.
So, if you're Mattison, do you move away from our more vanilla defensive plan and use aggressive blitzing to force some young Hackenberg mistakes?
I think we will win, but I say that before every game, regardless, so...
Then we're not a good team and this season could turn into a real tire fire! I would say we then go on to lose to IA, MSU, NE and OSU and may be Indiana.
However, I think we are a good team and have been playing below our potential. I'm not saying it will be an easy win but I think we win by 10 or more point.