"On Pace For" Updated: Week 6
I figured I'd just do an updated post of the projected numbers every week for the rest of the season. Just a couple notes to start:
1)The link to check out the week 5 numbers if you'd like to compare:
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/just-some-pace-numbers
2) Added Stephen Hopkins. It appears he might get at least somewhat regular carries (although apparently not in short yardage, which just seems dumb as hell and makes me want to punch myself in the face, but whatever).
3) I'm doing these as posts and not diaries becasue, well, honestly I just don't feel like they're really informative enough to be diary worthy. If I was more handy with the charts, I'd make up a line chart for each guy, but I'm not, so to hell with it. If a mod sees this and feels that it should be a diary, feel free to move it, and I'll start posting them as diaries from then on.
As before, these are assuming a 13 game season.
Offense
Denard Robinson-258 carries, 2,148 yards, 20 TD's
182/271, 2,649 yards, 17 TD's, 9 INT's
Vincent Smith-130 carries, 620 yards, 9 TD's
13 catches, 74 yards, 2 TD's
Mike Shaw-104 carries, 594 yards, 11 TD's
17 catches, 152 yards
Stephen Hopkins-20 carries, 150 yards, 2 TD's
Roy Roundtree-67 catches, 835 yards, 4 TD's
Darryl Stonum-33 catches, 490 yards, 4 TD's
Martavious Odoms-33 catches, 464 yards
Junior Hemingway-22 catches, 638 yards, 3 TD's
Kelvin Grady-22 catches, 289 yards, 4 carries, 26 yards
Kevin Koger-11 catches, 85 yards, 2 TD's
Defense
Jonas Mouton-121 tackles, 11 TFL's, 2 sacks, 4 INT's, 2 BrUp's
Jordan Kovacs-115 tackles, 9 TFL's, 2 INT's, 2 FF's, 2 FR's
Cam Gordon-100 tackles, 2 TFL's, 4 INT's, 4 BrUp's, 2 blocked kicks
JT Floyd-104 tackles, 4 TFL's, 2 INT's, 4 BrUp's, 2 FF's
Obi Ezeh-85 tackles, 5 TFL's, 2 FR's
Craig Roh-46 tackles, 8 TFL's, 1 sack, 2 BrUp's
Greg Banks-41 tackles, 9 TFL's, 4 sacks
Mike Martin-50 tackles, 12 TFL's, 5 sacks
James Rogers-39 tackles, 7 BrUp's
Thomas Gordon-39 tackles, 7 TFL's, 2 sacks
Ryan Van Bergen-22 tackles, 8 TFL's, 4 sacks, 2 BrUp's
Kenny Demens-24 tackles, 2 TFL's
October 12th, 2010 at 12:00 PM ^
...Tae Odoms "on pace" numbers. His injury will keep him out for several weeks. The PT and stats beneficiary will likely be Kelvin Grady.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:01 PM ^
Yea, but these aren't conjectured projections, simply numbers based on what has happened up to this point. As he misses games, his projected end of season numbers will go down.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:07 PM ^
...but you could factor in his expected absence now and obtain a projection that's just as accurate as any of your others. Your choice, of course.
Another suggestion: Project team stats and compare them against 2009 stats.
All that said, thanks for providing the data.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:45 PM ^
Just so you know, assuming Odoms misses 4 games, his numbers would be 23 catches for 321 yards.
On a side note, I'm glad you mentioned it because going back over the numbers I realized that I had done Hemingway's numbers for a 13 game season, when in fact he'll only play 11 games. So I've updated those as well.
Team stats are difficult because of the variety of opponent from the OOC schedule to the Big 10 schedule.
For example, last year we had a fantastic OOC start that made it look like we were going to be a vastly improved offensive and defensive team. Yet within the Big 10, we scored exactly the same amount of PPG in '09 as in '09, had a worse rush offense (worse yards per carry, yards per game etc) and defensively we were only about a quarter point better in the Big 10 than the previous year.
To be quite honest, in conference performance is all that matters to me until Rod shows he can actually win in conference, as far as team stats go. I could care less if we go 4-0 OOC every year if we're going 1-7 or 2-6 in conference. I'd gladly take 3-1 or 2-2 OOC if we go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference
October 12th, 2010 at 12:55 PM ^
...any of that.
BTW, could you tell The Man in Black to stop flipping me off? I have no quarrel with him.
October 12th, 2010 at 1:55 PM ^
My vote for most level-headed well-mannered mgoblogger goes to MGoShoe. A gentleman throughout. I rather suspect he dons a top hat and sports a monocle.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:04 PM ^
I would say Junior more than Grady since Grady is more of a slot guy . Tae is more of an outside WR this year, I believe, although I may be wrong. Either way, Grady and / or Junior will be able to fill in for Tae, but I hope for a speedy recovery for Tae.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:03 PM ^
if roundtree only ends up with 4 TDs this year
October 12th, 2010 at 12:25 PM ^
I'm sure you're right, but with only 2 TD's in 6 games this year, that's what he's currently on pace for. Remember, these are raw data driven, not my personal guesses.
October 12th, 2010 at 3:33 PM ^
doesn't include the TD's he'll help set up by getting tackled on the 1.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:44 PM ^
Something sounds "fundamentally flawed" with that number. I'm not questioning the numbers, just questioning how he's being used. Sometimes the numbers make it painfully obvious when someone's not being used correctly.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:53 PM ^
Just looking at these numbers....WHY IS DEMENS NOT PLAYING YET? I will pray every day he plays well enough this weekend to start the rest of the year.
October 12th, 2010 at 1:43 PM ^
it's just fun when it sounds like you have DEMONS in the backfield or DEMONS sacking the QB or DEMONS intercepting the pass. DEMONS!!!
October 12th, 2010 at 4:20 PM ^
The entire team. On pace for 10-2. WOO!