Over/Under Michigan Offense
Good Morning!! Good news: practice starts within the week. Games begin next month. It's not really the offseason anymore.
Anyway, I did a post on my blog on various, quirky Over/Under games I would play with certain Offensive numbers for 2010 Michigan. You can check out the full post here.
For discussion sake, I'll throw them out and see what you guys think. Remember, these are not my predictions, but rather where I would set the number to get even action on both sides. We'll see if I am way off on anything.
Total TDs from the QB position: 30.5
Rushing yards for leading rusher: 825
Total returns, Drew Dileo: 1.5 (fair catches, muffs, fumbles and touchbacks count)
Number of people who will catch as many or more balls this year than their current career totals: 5.5 (Excluded our true frosh, RS frosh w/o a catch, anybody without a career catch and all QBs)
TO Margin, better/worse than -6
What do you guys think, Over/Under? I'll be doing a defensive centric one as well as probably at least one other Michigan one. Going to try and do lists of 3-5 for every other Big 10 school, so stay tuned.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:53 AM ^
Im gonna say better than -6. We need to limit our TO's this year!
We should recover more than 5 fumbles and throw less than 15 interceptions this year.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:54 AM ^
I think the tds for qbs and leading yards for a runningback are both a little high. I think somewhere closer to 600 yards for the leading rusher and around 25 tds for the qbs.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:01 AM ^
I count 23 total TDs either thrown or run in by Forcier and Robinson last year. I really hope this number jumps up by more than 2. I'll take over on the 30.5.
Maybe Denard rushes for 825 yards, but no RB will do it with the rotation we'll likely see there.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:01 AM ^
Regarding the TDs for QBs, really?
Didn't Denard and Tate combine for 26 TDs last year? You don't think they can add 4 more?
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:03 AM ^
I count 23.
Tate: 13 pass, 3 rush.
Robinson: 5 rush, 2 pass.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:06 AM ^
I think we could and its entirely possible, I just think it wont. I think we will be more run heavy this year with the plethora of running backs this year including Toussaint, Shaw, Smith, Cox, and maybe Hopkins. I guess projecting numbers in my head Ill say 27.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:10 AM ^
Didn't Cone throw for one?
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:12 AM ^
By Sherdian, Kennedy, etc.
False
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:34 AM ^
No problem. I'll use your numbers.
You really don't think Denard and Tate will add 2 TDs to last year's production?
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:54 AM ^
No, just above your original comment I said I will take the over on the 30.5 so I agree with you here.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:58 AM ^
Over on QB TD's
Under on rushing yards
I sure hope better than -6 turnovers. Our achiles heel last year.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:03 AM ^
The leading rusher will exceed 825 yds.
That TO margin is a good indicator of one's opinion for the season. If you're pessimistic you'll take the over (worse). If you're an optimist, you take the under (better).
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:07 AM ^
The QB touchdowns line is on the money, I was screwing around last week on that very idea and came up with 31. Give me the over I guess, but I wouldn't bet on that.
I think -6 on turnovers is a pretty good line, too. I think the INT's come down by 4 or 5, and I'd hope that we'd fumble a lot less. Our defense was pretty light on TO's last year, too. I'd guess we could improve by more than 6 over last year. I'll take the over.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:11 AM ^
I'll take:
Over for QBs,
under for Rushing yards,
under for returns,
under for Receivers,
and Better for T.O.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:09 AM ^
Total TDs from the QB position: 30.5
That's just over two per game from the quarterbacks. I'll go over, but it could be close.
Rushing yards for leading rusher: 825
I'm going with the under. It's unlikely that one back will get enough carries to top 825 yards. It's certainly possible, but I think carries will be split, as they have the last two years.
Total returns, Drew Dileo: 1.5 (fair catches, muffs, fumbles and touchbacks count)
I think DIleo redshirts, so under. This one is awfully tough, though
Number of people who will catch as many or more balls this year than their current career totals: 5.5 (Excluded our true frosh, RS frosh w/o a catch, anybody without a career catch and all QBs)
I would say Roundtree, Hemingway, and maybe Stonum or a tight end could do it, but I don't see six non-freshmen beating their career totals unless Forcier starts and is just dynomite. Under for me
TO Margin, better/worse than -6
Better, at least I hope so. Michigan has turned the ball over so much the last two years that it would actually be a pretty big improvement to be at -5 or better. But Phil Steele tells me Michigan should improve in this regard, and I think he's right
Good topic, jamie
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:10 AM ^
I'll take under 825 for rushing leader.
But this is my optimistic bet as I hope it is due to various weapons and not the necessity for only two TBs to take all the load (because the others fall through). A healthy V. Smith, Cox stepping up, and Fitz living up to the hype combined with an expected breakthrough by Shaw should max any of the four at 750.
Of course, if all four want to rush for 851 a piece I'll gladly lose my money.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:12 AM ^
That total rush yds of 825 seems high....now. I hope somebody emerges as a full time back (and would love it being a redshirt freshman so we can get 4 years out of them). I would hope we get 31 total TDs from our QBs because thats averaging just like 2.5 a game, seems reasonable our QBs could get 4 one game then 1 another and so on. Drew Dileo is a real hit or miss, if he's the returner then easily makes the 1.5 a game mark. There should be a bunch more passes this year having two competent QBs with 2 years in the system and having all the WRs as well on the same page. Finally. more QB experience should limit turnovers as well as having more options at punt returner than can catch the ball.
Rush yds (under), Total QB TDs (over), Drew Dileo touches (under), WR catching more than ever (over), TO margin (over)
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:22 AM ^
Who would it be that gets to 825? Running Back by Committee means at least 2 backs split the majority of carries, with the remaining disbursed. Speed/finesse backs alternating with power backs. Another potential preparation concern for opponents, in addition to Tate/Denard
I'd love one guy to take control, but even then he'd be spelled often by V. Smith on passing downs (Vincent won't be an every down back)
Though overall, we will run the ball much better this year
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:25 PM ^
I'm inclined to agree but Slaton and Devine shared fairly well at WVU in 2007. I think we have a committe of two main guys and Hopkins as a short yardage or goal line specialist. The guy I'm most excited about is Fitzgerald Toussaint but it reamins to be seen if he can make enough hey to get onto the field for meaningful carries. Also, the O-line should be so much better.
I actaully think 825 is a pretty good number. I think we have one guy right around there with another two or three in the 400-500 range.
I would very much like you to be correct. Running that well would open up the pass, which means we will be shredding teams this year. And keeping our D off the field.
If you do that math it comes out to 1600 - 2300 rushing yards from the top the rushers on the team, that's nothing. Michigan put up 2200 last year with injuries on the O-line and to the top two RBs on the roster. From 2005 - 2007 WVU rushed for 3269, 3939, 3894 yards respectively.
If the O-line is as good as expected and the QBs can figure out how to run the zone read effectively, we should be blowing by my upper estimate and threatening 3000 yards pretty easily. OR, we're running a different encarnation of the Rodriguez offense.
JMac: give me the over on this one.Wouldn't be surprised if we had two guys go over.
but 3K would be outstanding, only 5 teams eclipsed that mark in 2009. At that point we'd be averaging 252 yds/game, mouth-watering even without relative comparisons (6th in 2009). WV was Top 5 in all the seasons you mention (though I think you're listing gross yards above, while mine are net)
Wisconsin led the Big Ten with 2,480 yards last year, followed by Illinois and Ohio State. We were 4th at 2,234. Jumping to 3,000 might be ambitious, but we will improve on '09. Still not clear if Running Back by Committee will allow one rusher to get 825, but I can see that being a more reasonable number
I count more than 5 teams over 3K in '09, unless you're looking a ypg and not total yards. That's not a big deal though, your point is well taken. A more reasonable, though still aggressive, target would be 2600-2700 ypg. Running is what this offense is designed to do; if we can't do that, something's up. Either we're not as good as I think we will be or we're doing something different. I think we have the right personel and enough of it on the two-deep to sustain performance through fatigue and injury. Also, M should throw up some gaudy rushing yards against UMass and Bowling Green, making their 'competitive' average lower but their overall total high. My expectation for this year's offense is 425 - 450 total ypg over 12 games; I expect over half of them to come on the ground.
I'm not buying the RB by committee thing just yet. The fact that we don't know who the guy will be doesn't necessarily mean that we won't have a #1. You may be right, but I'd like to think that we'd be able to have an A back identified by the end of fall camp. I think Toussaint has a shot at being a great every down back. We'll see.
Won't be long now.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:22 AM ^
Initially, I had O/U yards for leading rusher at 1,000.
Otherwise, sounds like, so far, a pretty even mix of over/unders on the other ones.
The Dileo thing was just to be creative, but who knows, maybe he seizes the job. He seems such a lock to redshirt, though.
As for the folks catching more balls in one year than in their career, dont forget guys like Vinny Smith, Martell Webb and Mike Cox, who have very small numbers to clear and expect to see some PT this season. I had to make the number a little bit higher because some of those guys might have a big day against UMass and shred their career numbers
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:23 AM ^
Total TDs from the QB position: 30.5 OVER
Rushing yards for leading rusher: 825 UNDER (injuries and no real depth chart)
Total returns, Drew Dileo: 1.5 (fair catches, muffs, fumbles and touchbacks count) WAY OVER. Double D Dileo will get junk time, at the very least.
Number of people who will catch as many or more balls this year than their current career totals: 5.5 (Excluded our true frosh, RS frosh w/o a catch, anybody without a career catch and all QBs) UNDER (I would never bet this because it is too weird and random. It's like a Super Bowl prop bet.)
TO Margin, better/worse than -6 OVER (which means the TO margin will be more in Michigan's favor. Eventually, luck, if nothing else, will turn this number around.)
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:24 AM ^
Dont forget Denard could easily be the leading rusher. I know some folks think he will flirt with 1,000 yards if he ends up asserting himself in the lineup.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:30 AM ^
That's an awful lot of rushing yards, though. Pat White ran for 1219 yards in his best season at West Virginia. Could Denard get close to that? Maybe as an upperclassman, but not in his first year starting
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:27 AM ^
I think your numbers for QB TDs and Top RB Rushing Yards are optimistic.
For RBs - that seems like a solid number if we had a leader in the clubhouse at running back. Unfortunately we do not. Our top rusher gained 502 yards last year. Also, only FOUR RBs in the Big Ten had more rushing yards than 825 last year. Unreasonable peg to be set.
For QBs - they had 23 total TD's last year. To expect 33% improvement is not totally off the wall, given they were both true freshman. But 2.5 TDs from our QBs per game is a lot, especially given our RBs scored 18 TDs last year.
So... if RBs remain stagnant (possible), and QBs improve to say 30 - that's 48 TDs - or 4 per game average. I'd take it, but I won't be expecting it - given there will be some B10 games that 4 TDs will be hard to come by.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:29 AM ^
almost 100 yds/gm with having Wisc, PSU, OSU, and Iowa on the schedule I think he doesn't hit that mark. Especially when you gotta think Tate at least gets 2 drives a game even if Denard becomes the starter.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:42 AM ^
100 yds/gm to reach what mark? 825? If Denard averages 70ypg, he'll reach 825 total, not including a bowl game.
He was referring to the 1,219 yards Pat White rushed for in his best season at WVU.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:31 AM ^
Definitely under 825 rushing yards by the leading guy. I might even go under 525. We have at least 5 guys who we'll use. I don't think we'll have a clear #1 guy this year, and we might even have 3 guys all get equal number of touches.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:46 AM ^
I'd be getting killed on that rushing stat, wouldnt I?
Lot on one sided action there.
Are there any other offense or defensive stats we could do O/U for? Throw out some ideas.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:50 AM ^
Offensive PPG or YPG?
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:01 PM ^
Same with defense, since I feel those numbers are crucial to our success.
Also, something about red zone efficiency on offense. If I remember correctly, Michigan was pretty awful in the red zone offensively during Big Ten play last year
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:09 PM ^
We were also awful in the redzone defensively. Rivals called it a "bend then shatter" approach...
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:02 PM ^
QB's: Under, I think it will be close. I'll say 28 total.
Rushing 825: Under, I see the rushing leader (DRob) with about 700 yards.
Dileo: Under, I don't think he'll play this year.
Receiving: Under, UM will continue to move to a run-centric offense with DRob getting the majority of the snaps.
TO's: Better, I think UM will finish close to even in TO margin in 2010.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:16 PM ^
Focusing on the pass catcher question. Here is the list of folks available:
Odoms, 71 (Didnt include him on the list originally because I dont think anyone feels he will approach his career numbers in one season. But Beavis brings up a good point and for accuracy sake, he should be on the list)
Roundtree, 32
Stonum, 27
Hemingway, 22
Koger, 22
V. Smith, 10
Grady, 10
Shaw, 8
Webb, 4
Stokes, 2
T-Rob, 1
Moore, 1
Cox, 1
Over/Under 5.5 exceeding those totals this single season
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:50 PM ^
Hmm... the "overs":
- Roundtree
- Stonum OR Hemingway (but not both)
- V Smith
- T Rob
- One more (where is Tay?)
I say 5.
5.5 seems like a really good line there.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:56 PM ^
i think it is a pretty safe bet that at the very least cox, t-rob, and stokes will beat those numbers.
considering that the majority of rountrees catches came in the last 4 games of the season, i'm inclined to say hell break that number as well. although he might recieve increased focus from opposing defenses, so who knows.
i dont think koger will break 22 because i expect we will have a lot more sets with two of t-rob, rountree, odoms, and gallon in the slots.
i expect our rb's will be catching a lot of balls out of the backfield. shaw very well could break 8. in fact i think its very likely
if smith is healthy, he should as well.
sadly i dont expect hemingway or stonum will break those totals. while they are certainly good enough recievers, they dont seem to be getting as many looks in their direction as the backs and slots.
brandon moore probably will exceed 1 reception.
so:
Roundtree - yes
Stonum - no
Hemingway - no
Koger - no
V. Smith - yes
Grady - no
Shaw - yes
Webb - no
Stokes - yes
T-Rob - yes
Moore - yes
Cox - yes
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:35 PM ^
I'd actually guess that the line on QB TDs is a bit low. The two biggest weapons on offense are Forcier and Robinson; I would wager that it could be closer to 33-34. That's just my $0.02, though.
At first i thought that it would be the under, but don't forget we do have a couple of mac-cakes this year (could easily be 5TD games by the QBs) and we'll most likely have some shoot-out games if our defense can't stop people. So I think I'd take the over on the original line
Over. Under. Over. Under. Over
I think we get mid-30s from the QBs. Too many different RBs get carries and maybe one or two gets a nagging injury to prevent the yardage total. When so many RBs are so close in ability, if they get nicked up, another will be in to take his place. For sure someone will have more that 1.5 total returns, I will say Odoms though. 6 is a lot of people to get more than their career numbers. I think a few specific guys will break out and get most of the catches. And I think our turnover margain ends at about even. Some of the worse teams will help us even it out
EDIT: I misread. Apparently it's total returns for Dileo, not just returns by an individual. I think he redshirts so under
Total TDs from the QB position: Over, by a hair.
Rushing yards for leading rusher: Under - though I think someone will exceed this in 2011
Total returns, Drew Dileo: Under - I think he'll end up redshirting
Number of people who will catch as many or more balls this year than their current career totals: Tough one - I'll say under, but I think it'll be like four or five.
TO Margin, better/worse than -6 Better. We'll be around zero.
I think Minor and/or Carlos Brown could have gotten over 800 yards last season had it not been for injuries. I realize no individual back is going to get the 35+ carries that Lloyd used to give Hart, Perry, A-Train, et al., but those guys were hitting 1,300 or 1,500 yards in a good season. I think if we don't have a back go over 825 yards this season, it means we've had another year of our backfield getting decimated by injuries.