Outlook for Big 10 "Bowl Teams"
Just curious on a slow news day on your general thoughts on the top 7-8 Big 10 teams aside from UM, MSU, and OSU which we discuss a lot. Reading through some previews on each team there are a lot of holes out there and with OSU potentially being a 3(4?!) loss type of team this year the calls of the "Big 10 sucks" might really ring loud this year in the bowl season - again. If we had even an average OL right now I'd consider UM with a very high chance for 2nd best team in the conference when I see what has been lost on other squads... even though other teams have more favorable schedules.
A quick glance at the "bowl type" teams - along with UM, MSU and OSU this would give us a top 7:
- Wiscy - they play LSU early on a neutral field. I am not sure how good LSU is in a general sense but they should be solid and Wisconsin lost 9 defensive starters including stud Borland. Anderson is supposed to be a defensive whiz but...9 starters. LSU is favored by 7 but if LSU blows out Wiscy it puts another nail in the Big 10 perception. This will be a team that relies on offense, and running game (4 OL and Gordon return) as usual but I see a lot of people penciling them in as favorites because...Wisconsin. That is a lot of experience to replace. Stave does not inspire. On the positive side, another easy schedule - outside of LSU, @Iowa seems to be their 2nd most difficult game with Neb at home.
- Iowa - maybe the easiest schedule in America among BCS schools; they avoid almost everyone and play Wisconsin/Neb at home late. Might be the least inspiring 9-3 type team in the country. Their strength last year were their 3 LBs, all 3 graduated. They had a 1st team Big 10 CB, he graduated. It will be a team that relies on offense it appears. And their QB is not all that. They play Iowa State and @Pitt as their 2 "tough" games - a trip up against either would prove this team to be a mirage.
- Neb - took some key injuries here these past few weeks on defense. They bring in a sorta meh Miami program (YTM) as their premier non conf game. They have upset potential for a road game @ Fresno State. Fresno is not all that (lost to USC by 20+ in a bowl) but its a west coast game for a conference that usually sh**s the bed in the PST time zone. Vegas only has Nebraska as a 4 pt fav here. Neb has a schedule like us where the toughest opponents are all on the road - @MSU, @WIscy, @Iowa. They bring back a premier RB, premier WR (Bell) and a premier DE. Armstrong should improve at QB with a year under hise belt. Defense only brings back 3 players - similar situation as Wiscy. Nebraska actually reminds me a lot of UM in that it could be a better team than 2013's version but faced with a tougher schedule so the W-L doesn't change much.
- PSU - yes Hackenberg but... this team doesn't wow when you look closely. UCF lost its QB but was a pretty damn good team last year and potential exists for an upset early if the volcano allows the game to be played. PSU is a small favorite in Vegas (2.5ish). Looking at their depth chart they seem to return only 1 OL - that's not cool for them. Allen Robinson is gone. The RBs should be very good but you need an OL to open holes. Defense took a hit with DaQuan Jones but should be decent. Schedule is favorable - they bring in OSU and MSU, only tough road game really is @UM. @Indiana, @Illinois, @Rutgers are their 3 other conf road games - manageable. So schedule is favorable so it could be a team like Iowa that benefits more from schedule than being world beaters.
I will leave it at those 4 teams - we could throw Minnesota or Northwestern in there but at this point those would be the 8th/9th place teams in the conf unless they move ahead of the 7 above and generally your conference will be viewed on how the teams above do in non conf/bowls versus what Minnesota does. Quick thoughts though - NW has crossovers with Michigan/PSU but gets Wiscy/Neb at "home" (I assume Ryan Field gets overrun with Badgers and Cornhuskers). Minnesota has an easy non conf highlighted by a 4-8 TCU team - but ends on a run of Iowa, OSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Good luck with that.
TL;DR - the Big 10 does not inspire me this year. Worried about some bad non conf outcomes that make the conference look bad yet again in national perception.
August 22nd, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^
You go all the way down to 9, and no mention of Maryland? Don't they bring a ton of people back?
August 22nd, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^
Fair enough - but I'd throw Maryland in the bucket with NW/Minn. Do you see Maryland finishing above OSU/UM/PSU/MSU this year? If so it's the 5th place team in the division - not going to move the meter nationally in perception.
Basically Maryland preview is - they are going to stress you in the air with premier WRs - think Indiana but more NFL type WRs. Defense should be decent. I see them as a team that will upset some folks in their home stadium (MSU and OSU both are candidates) but probably get punked a lot on the road.
August 22nd, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
I would put Maryland ahead of NW/Minnesota. I could see them beating out an Iowa or somebody and getting up to like 6th or whatever, but no, I agree: I would put them just behind that set of 7 but ahead of NW/Minnesota.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:01 PM ^
Yes they play Iowa at home and have more experience than Iowa in the 2 deep and again - Iowa does not inspire me in any fashion. Other than a good running game I don't see much from Iowa unless their QB comes back in much better form. And I see Iowa's defense struggling with Maryland's air attack. Maryland reminds me of a healthy Northwestern in many ways - their offense is going to cause you issues, and their defense is ok enough to steal some games from the "heavyweights".
They have a tough schedule however - UM, MSU, OSU, PSU, Iowa and Wisconsin. So they only miss Nebraska of the "top 7". You could see them wearing down as the year goes by.... an advantage for UM. Other than open dates they play all 6 of these teams consecutively. Thats not fun.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^
Yep - we are going to need some serious points in that game as I expect them to score quite a few on us. That is the 2nd to last game of the year so "in theory" the OL should be somewhere between pretty bad to below average by then ... hopefully. From a scan of the OSU and MSU boards that is a game a lot of their fans see as a 'trap game' on their schedules as its in MD. Luckily we have it at home.
August 22nd, 2014 at 5:32 PM ^
August 22nd, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
Granted, right now we're dealing with last year's data so it is of limited use, but Massey would project 5-7-ish for Maryland right now with a lackluster conference record, but still I think that among the two additions to the conference, they are the one that might be in a position to be a tough customer here and there in games even this year. I have to think that against teams with sketchy pass defenses, they can definitely hang around built as they are.
August 22nd, 2014 at 1:53 PM ^
PSU won't be a bowl team for at least a few more years.
August 22nd, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^
Hence the quotes.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:40 PM ^
August 22nd, 2014 at 4:59 PM ^
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:01 PM ^
I know the BTN guys are very high on Nebraska (Howard Griffith said they are the best team in the conference), but I just can't put them above MSU until Tommy Armstrong proves he can stretch the field with his arm. They probably have the best rushing attack in the conference and I think they have the best overall player in the league in DE Randy Gregory. I'd put them at #1 in the West and #2 overall in the conference, behind only MSU. I think Wisconsin takes a pretty big step back this year with all of their losses on defense plus losing Abbrederis. I see the overall conference rankings as:
1) MSU
2) Nebraska
3) OSU
4) UM
5) Iowa
6) Wisconsin
7) Minnesota
8) PSU
9) Indiana
10) Northwestern
11) Maryland
12) Illinois
13) Rutgers
14) Purdue
I think the Big Ten has 10 teams that would be bowl eligible (counting PSU) and also has 4 teams finish with 10+ wins (MSU, Neb, OSU, UM). While I don't think the league will send a team to the playoff, I do think it will be a very good overall year for the conference from top to bottom (minus Purdue).
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
Armstrong needs to demonstrate he won't be a turnover machine for Nebraska to do that well - especially in the hostile environments they will be heading to. Nebraska does have 2 of the top 5 players in the league in my mind in Gregory and Abdullah. Keep in mind they took some serious hits in their already young defense due to injuries in the past 2 weeks.
We can hate on MSU all we want but they return the least number of question marks in the league. Lost 1 WR and 2 OL - everything else back on offense. MLB and 1 CB will be the question marks on defense - still expect it to be a top 20 defense. They've been #6, #4, and #2 overall the past 3 years - they won't be dropping 40 spots. They have 3 NFL 1st/2nd rounders on that defense right now in Calhoun, Waynes, and Drummond.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:14 PM ^
I tried to take each teams schedule into account for my rankings. For example, I think Maryland is actually a more talented team than Iowa, but their schedule is so tough that I just don't see 6 wins. On the flip side, Nebraska has probably the second easiest schedule in the conference (behind Iowa) with the only game I would consider a probable loss being @ MSU.
I agree completely about MSU. I hate that they are on the top of the conference but they are there because they are currently the best. I do think their defense comes back down to earth but I think their offense will be quite a bit better than last year.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
Nebraska is like UM in that the schedule is not super tough but the tough games are really almost all on the road. Check Wisconsin's schedule and I think you will find it easier than Nebraska. (speaking to conference play)
Wisconsin avoids MSU in crossover play, Nebraska has to go to EL.
Wisconsin hosts Nebraska, Minnesota, and Maryland. They go to Northwestern and Iowa. That's about it when it comes to "tough games" for Wisconsin in conference.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^
Overall, how do you see Nebraska's defense shaping up? I remeber one of their biggest concerns last season was the defense not playing like the old Blackshirts. Do you see them improving?
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^
Not an expert on Nebraska - thread is more for open conversation. They bring back probably the best defensive player in the conference in Gregory. But they lost 8 starters and took some key injuries the week before last. You can isolate 1 great player if you are a very good offense. Depends on how their other players perform because every game Gregory is going to be double teamed constantly.
August 22nd, 2014 at 4:45 PM ^
NE won't win the west much less be above the 2nd place East team...which won't be OH. October 25 will determine the East champ and that should be the favorite in the BTCG. Unfortunately, I think that means Sparty.
I see the bowl teams as MSU, UM, OH, WI, IA, NE and 1 or 2 others that are too difficult to predict. I have my doubts about PSU, but once you're talking 6 wins anyone is possible. I think MN and IN are likely to be better, but MN has a brutal schedule.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:17 PM ^
3 starters including Scherff who is probably a 1st rounder. Iowa usually has a good OL through thick and thin.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:19 PM ^
I think either Iowa or Nebraska have the best OL in the conference. Iowa also has a pretty solid DL. What worries me about Iowa is they don't have much speed in their back 7 on defense, though speed is not always a premium in the Big Ten.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
Yeah they only have 1 guy that was a starter last year that is back (Cotton) but they also get another back from injury that was a starter in 2012. Pretty much every OL other than IU in the conference is going to lack experience. Iowa and Nebraska (and Wisconsin) both have much older players than UM that will be starting for the first time. As others have said before, experience/age is more important on the OL than anywhere else, in my opinion.
And I personally think Nebraska will have the best DL in the conference. I know OSU's has much more hype but I think Nebraska's starting DL is better right now, while OSU's will be better in the long run.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^
I am not sure any of the backup QB's are ready especially with a below average OL. Defense may be good but if they are on the field too often and too long they will get tired or worst get injuried regardless of depth.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^
Depends what DG we get. I am not as sold as most of MGo that Devin has made huge strides this offseason. In the spring game and this open scrimmage his stats and play (the scrimmage I am going off what people have reported) reminded me of many games last year where he had a few explosive plays, some key errors, etc.
Obviously his ability to scramble is a big benefit over Shane. Devin became very conservative in the back half of the last year as his confidence seemed to wane and I am sure the coaches pulled back his reigns as the turnovers were just killing us. But then it went too far IMO - other than Indiana and OSU Devin struggled much of the back half of the year. He also got beat up as the year progressed - he began running less his last 3 games if my memory serves from looking at his splits. I don't blame him - he took a beating no QB deserves.
So long story short - Shane might be a better passer right now than Devin. I don't know. Devin gives you a lot more ability to make something out of nothing but he also gives the other team a lot of chanes to make something out of nothing. I think Devin gives you a ton of variability - you could get Vince Young Jr 1 week or a guy who looks like he just stepped on campus 3 weeks later. Shane probably has a lower ceiling and lower floor from week to week. But Devin would keep defenses more honest because even if your running backs cannot run, at least Devin can.
August 22nd, 2014 at 2:36 PM ^