Our Naked Lunch: We are Penn State (or possibly ND)
William S. Burroughs described the contents of his book Naked Lunch - a book, utlimately, about abuses of power - as "brutal, obscene, and disgusting," but he believed the contents were important so that readers would see what was on the end of their "long newspaper spoons," i.e., the reality they missed as it was filtered through the media of Burroughs' day. The title was a reflection of his desire to deliver a lucid account - readers where to be given Burroughs' news naked and unvarnished.
I think it is time given the hand-wringing over this season (and not picking up Hand, to a much lesser extent) to take an unvarnished look at Michigan football in the last ten years. Why ten? Well, it's a nice round number and because it puts us well into the childhood of recruits so that the'yre unlikely to have formed a perception of a football program much before then. It's also just a pretty long time. It's hard to say that ten years' worth of outcomes is a fluke.
2003: Michigan goes 10-3, beats ND, OSU, and MSU, wins the Big Ten, and loses in the Rose Bowl. This was the last year in which Michigan beat ND, OSU, and MSU...Also, Chris Perry finished fourth in the Heisman vote, making him the last Wolverine to finish that high.
2004: Michigan goes 9-3, beats ND and MSU, wins the Big Ten for the last time since, and loses in the Rose Bowl, Michigan loses to OSU for the first of what will be seven straight times.
2005: The Year of Infinite Pain we called it. If we'd only known. Michigan suffers mass injuries, goes 7-5, and among the rivals only beats MSU. They then lose in the Alamo Bowl to Nebraska and a collection of scarecrows dressed up as referees.
2006: Michigan rebounds to go 11-2 but loses to OSU and is thrashed in the Rose Bowl. This is the last time Michigan was considered a national championship contender late in the season. Current high school seniors were roughly eleven years old when this happened.
2007: Michigan goes 9-4, loses to App State, loses to OSU, and wins the Citrus Bowl. Lloyd Carr then retires.
2008: Michigan goes 3-9 and loses to all of the rivals.
2009: Michigan goes 5-7, beats ND, and loses to OSU and MSU. No bowl for the second straight year.
2010: Michigan goes 7-6, beats ND, loses to OSU and MSU, and is destroyed in the Gator Bowl. RR is out. Hoke is in.
2011 Michigan goes 11-2, beats ND and OSU, loses to MSU, and wins the Sugar Bowl against Va Tech in a match-up that drew criticism on the grounds that some people believed neither team deserved a BCS bid. This is Michigan's only BCS bowl victory since 2000.
2012: Michigan goes 8-5, beats MSU, loses to OSU and ND, and loses its bowl to South Carolina.
Why did I bother to type all this out? That's a good question, and my answer (which may not cut it) is that I think some people don't realize what Michigan football is right now. Michigan football is Penn State - or maybe Notre Dame. History of great coaches (or at least one great coach)? Check. Large and passionate fan base? Yep. Lots of great history generally? Yep. Great stadium? That too. A long list of former All-Americans and NFL players? Sure. Very good school? Yes...All of that is great, but is Michigan a top football program right now? No, I don't see how you can say that. Again, a decade is a long time. You just aren't very good if you're having to make excuses for an entire decade.
I join everyone in wanting Michigan to return to the top. But I encourage you not to despair as if Michigan just recently fell from the top or is right now falling from the top. Michigan has not performed like a top-tier program for most of the last ten years. Michigan is like ND or PSU - once-great programs that are and have been shells of there former selves that occasionally, briefly pop back up into the elite only to drop back down again. There is no point in pretending otherwise.
Oscar Wilde wrote something about staring at the stars while lying in the gutter. Let's continue to stare at the stars, but let's have no illusions that we are, while not in the gutter, not too far out of it either.
EDIT: See NittanyFan's comment below for more on the PSU comparison.
November 14th, 2013 at 4:42 PM ^
This is all true... And it is sad.
November 15th, 2013 at 6:29 AM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 4:45 PM ^
not Penn State. Things are concerning but our recent history does not involve anything like what has gone on there.
Virginia Tech is a good parallel.
November 14th, 2013 at 4:45 PM ^
It's not that bad. We don't have to dig out from draconian sanctions and the biggest black eye in the history of black eyes.
We are in the same boat as Notre Dame and Nebraska, though.
November 14th, 2013 at 4:47 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 4:49 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 4:50 PM ^
and got punched in the dong for it. . .
November 14th, 2013 at 4:56 PM ^
And tell it to keep its hands up.
November 14th, 2013 at 4:53 PM ^
Guess what, guys. This happens to pretty much everyone, OSU unfortunately excepted. Texas was medicore for 10 years before Mack Brown. Alabama was awful before Saban. USC was bad before Carroll. We've had a bad stretch, but our time will come.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:02 PM ^
I was going to mention 'bama but you've already mentioned it. To further expand..
Bama
2003 - 4-9
2004 - 6-6
2005 - 10-2
2006 - 6-7
2007 - 7-6
And everyone knows what happened after 2008 - since then it seems like after every game they play we find ourselves saying, "I haven't seen a beatin' like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose."
Hopefully Saban runs to TX and the program returns to earth.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:08 PM ^
Yeah pretty much. Though this feels like about the tenth time the OP has brought up this point. It's getting a bit old.
November 14th, 2013 at 7:00 PM ^
OU before Stoops, all of the Florida schools have had wild fluctuations. It goes on and on.
November 14th, 2013 at 10:01 PM ^
Eh. It happened to Ohio, just to a lesser degree. John Cooper was not all that great by record. Hoke's not really far off where Cooper was.
November 14th, 2013 at 10:31 PM ^
His first few years and last couple of years weren't great but OSU had a pretty nice run from '93 through '98. From '93 - '98 they were ranked in the Top 10 pretty much every year entering the Michigan game. Won a couple of Big Ten titles and won what would now be considered 2 BCS Bowls (Rose and Sugar) and played in one more (lost Sugar to FSU).
November 15th, 2013 at 12:07 AM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 11:14 PM ^
They had some lean years in the late 80s/early 90s, but not quite wander-in-the-desert years like the other bigtime programs have gone through. But still, I agree--everyone is vulnerable.
November 14th, 2013 at 4:54 PM ^
Admittance is the first step towards recovery.
I'm looking at the reality of our division next season. Bill O'Brien is looking like he's going to build PSU back into something, especially now that the sanctions were reduced. Hackenberg is legit and only a freshman. MSU is gaining clout and stability every year under Dantonio Their defense, it's great. They are going after Cass Tech. Need I mention they've beaten us 4 out of 5? They have been real for a while now. And Urban Meyer and OSU aren't going anywhere. Urban is 1.00 nearly at the end of his second seasons The way things are going, Rutgers and even Maryland aren't looking like easy wins. Getting out of our division is going to be dogfight every season.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:11 PM ^
Welcome to big-time football.
"MSU is gaining clout and stability every year" -- they went 6-6 and then played in the BWW last year! You know, the quite possible scenario for UM that is causing us to rend our garments this year.
Bill O'Brien seems like a fine coach. But I have no idea how good they are going to be. They are currently 5-4, 2-3 in the B1G. Penn State (this year not excluded - that's why it's so pathetic we lost to them) is historically on a downward swing, and will likely be that way for another year or two.
"Rutgers and Maryland" --- I agree they're not going to be cupcakes, esp in our current form, but unless you want UM to stop playing in a BCS conference, Rutgers and Maryland are about as "easy" a game as you can expect. For example - under Randy Edsall, Maryland has not won ONE game in November, and has gone 4-17 in the vaunted ACC.
Ohio State is going to be elite (or near so) every year Urban is there. A fact of life.
In short, UM has underachieved for a decade now -- that is not in dispute. We all better hope Hoke gets it elevated, soon. But UM is VERY lucky to be playing in the B1G, with its wide array of mediorce teams. We would be in deep dip if we had to play in the SEC or Pac-12.
November 14th, 2013 at 6:13 PM ^
Might be worth mentioning that the pundits said Texas A&M and Mizzou would be in deep trouble and clobbered in the SEC as well, and look what happened. They're more competitive than they were in the Big 12.
And Nebraska is no more competitive in the B1G than they were in the Big 12.
Too much is made of this SEC stuff. Yes, they have great teams at the very top.
November 14th, 2013 at 6:31 PM ^
like you mostly just rehashed and agreed with them aside from the stuff about MSU. Yes, it is big-time football, and right now, we're not big-time but middle-of-the-road at best, that is the reality that I don't think your average Michigan fan accepts. The reality is that Michigan, at this moment, isn't even the third best team among the members of next year's division. Regarding your MSU comments, I think you're not facing the reality there. The Spartans are on the verge of their third 10+ wins season in four years. We haven't done that since 1997-2000. If they win-out their conference schedule, they could have three 11-win seasons in four seasons...something we've never done. They've also won a share of a B1G Title in that time and are likely going to win their second divisional title. That's clout and stability in my book, and beyond. If we had those accomplishments, the garment-rending wouldn't be this bad.
November 14th, 2013 at 7:00 PM ^
...instead of OSU. All the other teams in our division are nothing for us to aim for or compare ourselves against.
Michigan's problem is that its performance on the field has been largely mediocre for quite some time. And if we stepped it up and we were achieving at MSU's recent level (i.e., no BCS bowls, no B1G championships, no wins over Top 10 teams, getting drilled by Alabama 49-7 when we played them), we'd still be unhappy. That's not even as good as the late Carr years, when UM fans (rightly) worried we had lost a step.
The goal is for Michigan to be an "elite" program. I am well-aware, and have been for years, that we haven't been one for about a decade. It's Hoke's job to change that, and obviously, that hasn't been going so well lately.
November 14th, 2013 at 7:55 PM ^
Need I mention they've beaten us 4 out of 5?
Actually I think you need not - guessing most people here are onto that newsflash
November 14th, 2013 at 4:56 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 5:05 PM ^
Since 1990 (my birthyear, why not?) Michigan has averaged 8.76 wins per year and 3.63 losses per year.
My fandom began in 2008 (first year at Michigan, never paid much attention before then), so that dark cloud of the RR era and what we've seen through Hoke remains.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:06 PM ^
You missed the best stuff! (Maybe saying that doesn't help.)
November 14th, 2013 at 5:03 PM ^
Rich Rod's nick name by some while he was at Ann Arbor was the Human Death Penalty.
Maybe we aren't that far off from Penn State.
Only 2 things could lead to an utter collapse of a program: Jerry Sandusky type scandal, or Rich Rod.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:04 PM ^
Called rebuilding. Winning a BCS bowl when doing so is pretty nice. Oh and PSU and ND cant say they made the Final Four last year either.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:05 PM ^
For some reason, I am finding better comparisons to baskebtall teams and not other football teams.
To me, UM is basically Georgetown basketball. Aside from conference realignment, Georgetown is a historical powerhouse, complete with a proud history of coaches, players, and fans. They are frequently hovering around the top - although, they really only crack into the top ranks on a handful of occasions. For all their branding and media attention, they also only have 1 national championship in the last 50 years, although (like UM) they have had some dominant wins sprinkled in every 7-10 years.
For what it's worth, I used to think UM was similar to Kansas basketball. But, they've started winning a lot and are pretty freaking dominant in their conference. So - yeah - that wouldn't make much sense.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:09 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 5:23 PM ^
The Capital One Bowl used to be called the Citrus Bowl and is played in the Citrus Bowl. Some people like to use the old name. Kinda like if some sponsor paid to rename the Rose Bowl to I dunno, the Rogaine Hair Loss Treatment Bowl, we'd still call it the Rose Bowl,.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:52 PM ^
It hasnt been called the Citrus Bowl since like 2001.
November 14th, 2013 at 7:33 PM ^
Recent history.
November 14th, 2013 at 8:29 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 5:10 PM ^
Finally a sane and realistic post.
Thank you.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:11 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 5:17 PM ^
We've been mediocre a lot longer than ten years...outside of the 1997 season the late 90s and early 2000s were pretty much all mediocre.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:19 PM ^
97',98', and 99' were all ten win seasons. Ten wins is not mediocrity.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:42 PM ^
Okay? 10-3 is not mediocrity, but it's not great.
November 14th, 2013 at 6:40 PM ^
Dude, I and many others, would kill to have 10 win seasons on the reg. We've only had 12 of those since 1980 -- one out of every three seasons. And only four 11+ win seasons (1986, 1997, 2006, 2011).
I would definitely consider a 10 win season great and 11 or more exceptional.
That's the problem with this fan base. There are people that think even a 10 win season isn't, yet in the last 33 seasons, we've only had twelve of them. The expectations are disconnected from the reality.
November 14th, 2013 at 7:11 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 7:18 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 10:08 PM ^
1998: 10-3
1999: 10-2
2000: 9-3
You were saying?
November 14th, 2013 at 7:46 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 5:16 PM ^
I remember that UM 97 national title team like it was yesterday. 1997 was a long time ago. Sure we had some successes in the 2000's but not any of real worth. We would do well in the big ten but get crushed in the meaningful bowl games.
I got news.. It's gonna take a hell of a lot more then Brady, Al, and Greg to get this program to where we want it. I want to believe that next year is the year we make strides but Al said were 2 years behind so I dont expect much at all. I am starting to hate watching the piss poor game management and play calling from this team. You can have a damn all star team and still go 7-6 with this staff. Ughhh
November 14th, 2013 at 5:17 PM ^
you're right. I think Penn St. is a good comparison. They've had a few shining moments in the past 20 years where they're relevant on a national stage, but they're still considered a football school. We're in the same boat. My hope is that we can stage an Alabama-esque turnaround and peel off a multi-year BCS eligible streak between 2015-2020. We shall see. The absolute worst part of this story is that the B1G has been mediocre to plain bad. A true powerhouse would've owned this stretch of rancid B1G history...so I guess OSU has been the only true powerhouse, with Wisconsin a not-so-distant second.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:18 PM ^
As you noted, we won the B10 in 2003 and 2004, going to the rose bowl both years. The fact that we lost to great teams both of those years does not change that fact that we won our conference and were considered a power in those years. Ditto 2006. We were ranked #2 going junto the final week of the season. That we lost to a great OSU team by less than one score and then lost in our bowl doesn't change that one iota. Hell, we were one Shawn Crable hit away from possibly going to the national championship game that year.
That said, I agree with the remainder of your post from 2007 forward. So, we have had a down 7 years in my book, not 10. Sucks, but name me a single program other than OSU that hasn't experienced the same thing, including such powers as Bama, Texas, USC, Nebraska and LSU.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:34 PM ^
2003 was undoubtedly a very good year. I didn't mean to imply otherwise. I'd take a bunch of 2003s in a heartbeat.
It's hard to love 2004 and 2006 with their losses to OSU and in the Rose Bowl, but Michigan was a more-or-less top-notch team in those years. However, the flaws in those years hurt all the more when you see them in the larger context of the last decade. To put it another way, two of Michigan's few good years weren't even all that good.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:43 PM ^
2004 was one of the most disappointing years to me. The B1G was sooooo bad that year. If I remember right, only 2 or 3 teams finished in the top 25 at the end of the year. And - to make matters worse - we lost to an unranked ND team and an unranked OSU team. Ugh.
Then Vince Young happened...which, ugh (again).
I'm not going to get into 2006. That entire year to me is a giant smoke-and-mirrors illusion. Even though the B1G was bad before, 2006 really hammered home just how bad the B1G was (is) relative to the other conferences. OSU and UM really laid eggs that year, and the perception of the B1G has not changed since.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:50 PM ^
That really was when all hell broke loose. I still remember Gary Daneilson going game by game through the Michigan and Florida schedules and lobbying for Florida - and of course he was right.
November 14th, 2013 at 10:36 PM ^
How was that disappointing? UM lost a lot from the 2003 team. The starting QB gets hurt in fall camp (Gutz) and UM is forced to play a true frosh at QB. They still end up winning the Big Ten (co champs with Iowa). Yeah, OSU and the Rose Bowl loss stung but dang.