OTish:Vegas favors Sparty to win Football Playoff
Per MLive via Vegasinsider.com has msu a 13:2 favorite to win College Football's first playoff. Negbang material for sure but just wanted to get the word out.
http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2014/10/michigan_state_the_curr…
October 13th, 2014 at 4:54 PM ^
Will Purdue be there?
October 13th, 2014 at 7:32 PM ^
No but LeAnn Rimes.
October 13th, 2014 at 4:55 PM ^
That doesn't mean that Vegas believes Sparty is the best team. The odds they are creating now have to include the chance each team has of making the playoff in the first place.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:04 PM ^
I would say that FSU has the easiest path to making the playoff with MSU not far behind.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:29 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 5:34 PM ^
Sparty still has to play Ohio. If they get past Ohio, they have to play the BT Championship game. They aren't making the playoff. Besides, what if the Wolverines play inspired football, catch a few breaks and win in two weeks?
Until further notice, Michigan is now the "little brother" who has "no chance to win." Sparty used to win every three years that way. We will probably be pissed after that game, but you never know.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:57 PM ^
cause i'd take sparty any day of the week, twice on sundays, to roll us by 10+ points
October 13th, 2014 at 8:44 PM ^
Is that really "rolling" a team?
38 - 28? 20 - 10? 10 - 0?
Now, Sparty will be rightfully favored but that's why you play them.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:33 PM ^
/ducks
October 13th, 2014 at 4:59 PM ^
Still far from a guarantee a 12-1 MSU even gets to the playoff.
Assume the ND/Florida State winner, plus 2 SEC teams (you know this is happening), then there's only 1 spot for .............
October 13th, 2014 at 5:01 PM ^
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October 13th, 2014 at 6:46 PM ^
If Oregon wins out they're in over MSU, but I don't think they will win out. I don't expect a Pac-12 team to be in it.
I have a hard time seeing a Big 12 winner being lower than 12-1, and I think it will be Baylor. The Baylor-OU winner has a good shot and at 12-1 would get in over MSU.
I agree that the FSU-ND winner is likely in, especially if it's ND. They have a tough schedule, so even if they drop one they will be one of the better 1-loss teams. But to be honest, I think there's a really good chance both ND and FSU get in.
Obviously the SEC winner gets in, but I'm not sure another SEC team does. Either way, a 1-loss SEC team gets in over 1-loss MSU. It's still possible there just isn't another one of those, though.
So, no, I don't think MSU gets in. There's just a lot of uncertainly around most other individual teams.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:53 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 8:08 PM ^
The Big 12 winner, whoever it is, will have played more tough games than the Big 10 winner, so I don't think that extra game will make much of a difference. At that point, 11-1 and 12-1 are functionally the same.
October 13th, 2014 at 8:49 PM ^
More and more looks like MSU will be playing Iowa or someone like that in B1G championship game, if MSU wins out. That will be a hard sell for the 4th spot. No wonder they were trying to jack up the points on Saturday and almost backfired on them.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:07 PM ^
If there are 12-1 teams in the B1G, Pac-12, B12, ACC/ND, there won't be two SEC teams in the final four.
The committee will be subject to all sorts of politics, and including two teams from one conference is not the way this is going to start. Remember the huge fuss around Alabama getting the MNC invite after not making the conference championship game. There won't be any interest in starting the new system off with that type of controversy.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:28 PM ^
I heard on a number of ESPN radio shows last week discussions abut whether a two loss SEC team would be more desrving in that scenario than a one loss team from another league. The table is already being set, in case that happens.
Obviously, I dont agree, Im just reporting the news
October 13th, 2014 at 6:59 PM ^
That's fine for radio shows, but the committee will not care what people on ESPN talk radio shows think. The point of those shows is for discussion.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:17 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 7:29 PM ^
But ESPN radio shows have very little connection. Most of them are regional, and even the ones that aren't are just expressing the opinions of the particular guys on that show. Just because Mike Greenberg or Colin Cowherd think a second SEC team is deserved, doesn't mean "ESPN" thinks that and just because those guys say it doesn't even mean they believe. A lot of what they say is for the sake of discusssion and ratings are little else.
That said, ESPN owning the SEC network hes little influence over this. ESPN has primary broadcasting rights to most of the conferences (including the Big Ten) and most of the big SEC games are actually aired on CBS. And if they had any agenda on the playoff, it would be to get the best ratings, and an SEC team playing a Big Ten team would get far better ratings than an SEC team playing another SEC team. You want to draw from a broad viewer base, not a limited one.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^
If's he's arguing for 2 SEC teams in the playoff, then that's what the suits at ESPN want.
October 13th, 2014 at 8:06 PM ^
First of all, I don't think every opinion he has is the opinion of the "suits at ESPN." Secondly, the suits at ESPN aren't the ones picking the teams. Thirdly, I don't think the "suits at ESPN" want two teams from the same conference anyway. They want to draw in fans from all over the country.
October 13th, 2014 at 8:31 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 5:08 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 5:24 PM ^
This is exactly why I want it to happen.
It does two wonderful things for us:
1) It gets the CoFoPuf expanded to 8 teams where it should be, and quickly.
2) it screws Sparty over in the most frustrating LOL way possible.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:25 PM ^
The playoff isn't going away. The only thing spurned teams/conferences will cause is a larger playoff.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:49 PM ^
There is no way we're going to see a 4 team playoff for the next 12 yrs, as is the current plan, and such a joke. This may have been the transitional baby step necessary to appease the profiteering bowl assholes (who should have been kicked to the curb, and thankful for the far too many years they were able to delay a playoff, while raping the CFB landscape) and their enablers, but 4 teams is ridiculous. If it doesn't go to 8 for all the right reasons, the prospect of the increased revenue should get the job done sooner than later.
I would like to see auto-bids to the P5 conference champs, with 3 at-large bids. The more participants determined on the field, the better. This would encourage much tougher OOC scheduling - OOC losses wouldn't prevent you from winning your conference, but any year you're vying for one of the 3 at-large bids, you best have an impressive resume. If the committee wants to control more than 3 spots, then expand to 16 (I can dream).
October 13th, 2014 at 7:58 PM ^
I like that idea, and I think that's very likely to be the case.
There is too much guessing from year to year how good a given conference is compared to another, but they don't play each other enough to know. So is a 11-2 champ from one league better than a 12-1 champ from another? Who knows? Let all of the P5 champs in and the next 3 best will get in. If you're the second best team in a really good league, you will get in. And if you are in a league where everyone beats up each other but you come out on top, you still get in.
The only problem I can foresee is when there is a conference championship game where one of the team is clearly not worthy but pulls that game out. Like a few years ago when 8-5 Wisconsin beat Nebraska and went to the Rose Bowl. You'd still have to let that team in then.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:58 PM ^
The only remaining undefeated team in those two leagues is Baylor, which just gave up 58 and its schedule is extremely back-loaded.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^
Hard to imagine a Big 10 team being invited to begin with
October 13th, 2014 at 5:09 PM ^
I think MSU probably gets "jobbed" by the 2nd SEC team that gets in.
It's actually pretty interesting, IMO. On the one hand, they did schedule Oregon. But of course, on the other, the B1G is just so bad this year.
We will keep seeing articles about this until they get another loss this year. Here's to that happening on 10/25.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:28 PM ^
If Oregon does not win the Pac 12, it really hurts Sparty. That was their lone big win, er, big loss. They don't have too much to hang their hat on beside that.
And if Oregon does win it, they take a slot away from Sparty.
Oregon is Sparty's worst nightmare.
October 13th, 2014 at 6:15 PM ^
what happens to the loser of FSU and ND. If ND loses to FSU, but then wins out, they will also be in the conversation. In part, annoyingly, because they are ND.
I think a playoff system is a good thing. But the politics and lobbying is going to really suck. Even if every SEC team has 2 losses, there will be a big push to put at least one, if not two of them in the playoff.
October 13th, 2014 at 6:28 PM ^
They will only have 11 wins in that case and likely no wins over anything better than 9-3 Stanford. That won't be enough.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:03 PM ^
But MSU's best win would be against an (at best) 10-2 OSU, and absolutely nothing else to hang their hat on. ND would at least have ASU and USC, both of which will be better than MSU's next best win. And their loss would be better as well. At FSU will be viewed as tougher than at Oregon, who isn't looking incredible lately.
October 13th, 2014 at 10:40 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 11:46 PM ^
You can't count OSU twice. OSU is their best win (which I compared to Stanford). ND's next two would be USC and ASU. Who are MSU's next two? Nebraska and who?
October 13th, 2014 at 11:50 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 7:59 PM ^
ND will lose to ASU on the road. ASU is the best offense (better than FSU) ND will face. It will be on the road, 3 time zones away at the end of a long season.
As for the OP, MSU has the easiest path in the nation outside of FSU. And the easiest schedule overall. Oregon and OSU without their QB are their 2 toughest games. A flawed Nebraska which almost lost to McNeese State is their 3rd toughest game. And they are built for destroying teams like Nebraska who has a QB who cant throw well. Most likely they will rematch Nebraska in the Big 10 championship game and if not then then a Wsconsin team with no QB at all.
FSU at least had to go to OK State on the road early, had Clemson and has ND. So 3 tough games. MSU will have 2.
MSU would probably be 4th in the SEC West this year. But they will most likely go to the playoffs as 12-1. Unfortunately.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:09 PM ^
would win it all in Bball last year, since they were finally healthy. We'll see.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
This is quite true, of course, but oh how the story changes when your season does in fact get derailed a little bit by injuries and you spend part of the most pivotal section of your schedule having to switch people around and play some weird guys in crucial games.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:54 PM ^
Well in fairness, MSU did look pretty sweet in the tournament. I was getting worried they'd actually do it when they made the Elite 8
October 13th, 2014 at 7:19 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
Have they watched Sparty play at all lately? They haven't been at their best. But then again, no team out of Mississippi has done that great lately.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:05 PM ^
Did you watch the Miss St game? They didn't look all that great either. A couple times, the pro-SEC announcers (Gary Danielson and Verne Lundquist, I believe) said how they didn't feel this looked like 2 of the 3 best teams in the country.
October 13th, 2014 at 8:18 PM ^
October 13th, 2014 at 5:19 PM ^
Check back in 2 weeks
October 13th, 2014 at 5:22 PM ^
To win it? Wouldn't bet on that. I'd believe that they have the best odds of reaching it though. They have the easiest schedule from this point on by far out of contenders in the top 10. There is of course the risk of them being passed over all together due to that easy schedule remaining though. They need OSU and Nebraska to win their remaining non-Sparty games to legitimately get in the discussion.
October 13th, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^
What's scary is they only get better as seasons progress. If they make the playoff, it wouldn't shock me at all if they won it. Better hope the PAC 12/Big 12 champs have 1 loss or less.
October 13th, 2014 at 6:30 PM ^
They haven't this year. Have you watched MSU play and then watched FSU or the top SEC teams. MSU isn't even close to them. We seen how they faired against Oregon.