OT(ish?) Any MGoGamblers out there?
Sports betting is something that I've done for a while and enjoy thoroughly. It gives me added interest in games that I would otherwise have no interest in watching.
For example, UC and Temple play tonight. Before, I would be asleep by halftime during this. Now that I have something bet on the game, it gives me an excuse to drink a few cold ones and root for a team I otherwise wouldn't care about.
NW is a 10.5 point underdog against Wisconsin this week.. And I was wondering if there are any other MGoGamblers out there that have any favorable lines circled. I already have NW(+10.5), UM(-3), and UC(-21).
October 11th, 2013 at 9:34 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 10:11 AM ^
is it the line that is making you think that? Vegas knows that "Michigan sucks" is flying off the shelves right now but they aren't buying it. Vegas like Michigan and wants your Penn State money.
October 11th, 2013 at 9:37 AM ^
parlay Jacksonville +27 with the over 50 = make money sunday. Denver is susceptible to the pass, as we saw last week, and even with bailey back Jacksonville has two options in shorts (who is questionable right now) and Justin Blackmon (who is a boss)...
last night sucked as I parlayed NY and the under only to lose by a point, but that is life.
- as you can see I favor parlays as they pay 2.5-1.0 with my guy and I like to say if X or Y wins it is because they scored a lot or didn't score a lot...
jdon
October 11th, 2013 at 10:22 AM ^
Why are those good odds on a parley? You need to do a little better than 63% on the individual bets to make money. Maybe you can get a little help from correlations if you're making multiple bets on the same game but that seems like a lot of skim to me.
Bookies love parleys, for good reason. As in Vegas, you always pay a premium on longer-odds bets.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:42 AM ^
my bad, I agree in point with you, however I would contend that in game parlays involve bets that are intertwined and therefore if I believe, incorrectly last night, that the giants will cover the 8 because the bears won't score enough to seperate then I would argue I am simply betting that belief at 2.5 to 1.0.
In the case of the jacksonville game I feel like jacksonville will score enough to push an over and stay within 27. Again I would argue that I am making but one bet...
take it witha grain of salt, we all have our theories, but I like it and it has served me well.
jdon
October 11th, 2013 at 9:39 AM ^
I've been riding the Baylor train all year, this week is no different. I'm not sure if the line has moved, but I took them at -18. Let's keep that Bank of Baylor open!!
October 11th, 2013 at 9:44 AM ^
Baylor has done well for me also. It's like they look at the over as a challenge.
Could you imagine what the total would be on a Baylor-Oregon matchup? 100?
October 11th, 2013 at 9:50 AM ^
I stopped betting a few years ago but if I learned one thing if it looks like "free money" - go the other way.
October 11th, 2013 at 10:22 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 9:54 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^
According to Just Cover Blog (jamiemac's site), the O/U for points on the Michigan-State is 54.5 and I believe State is getting 9 or 10 points.
October 11th, 2013 at 10:52 AM ^
State's laying 9.5. If they were getting 9.5, THAT would be free money!
October 11th, 2013 at 9:56 AM ^
NW will either win or cover the spread.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:17 AM ^
Did you see what Carlos Hyde did to them last week? I am sure Wisky noticed and is ready.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:30 AM ^
I'm sure NW isn't practicing this week.
October 11th, 2013 at 10:06 AM ^
IU (+10)
October 11th, 2013 at 10:09 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 10:21 AM ^
But if you want added interest to meaningless games you should try 5 and 6 team parlays. Sure, it's a longshot most weeks, but those 2 or 3 weeks a year where you have 5 out of 6 the right and the 6th is the late game makes that way more interesting. Plus, you only have to bet, say, $15 to win $150. If you bet online, they make the calculations for you and let you know what's on the line. For me, I can't beat the thrills for only $15/week. Believe it or not, I am actually up a few hundred by doing this.
Here's my actual tip, bet on ohio. If they're going to frustratingly win every week, I might as well make some money off of them. But don't worry, it doesn't numb the feeling at all.
I locked in UM at -2 early in the week and like NW +10.5. Just sayin'.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:03 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 10:21 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 10:30 AM ^
I enjoy picking against the spreads, but don't actually bet money on them due to me being in college and broke. I really like the Texas AM -6 against Ole Miss line.
October 11th, 2013 at 10:35 AM ^
I honestly don't even know where you can place a sports bet... don't you have to be in vegas or delaware?
October 11th, 2013 at 10:42 AM ^
I bet on Bovada. They're a legitimate sportsbook with fair lines.
October 11th, 2013 at 3:39 PM ^
they profile each bettor and shade lines towards what their model thinks youre likely to bet... They deal different lines to different bettors.
Ever notice you go to their odds screen and then login and the numbers are different?
Ive had no problems with getting timely payouts from them, but I would get a sharp book like pinnacle as well as bovada. plus bovadas juice or commission on in game wagering is obscene.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:45 AM ^
there are countless bookies around, you just have to find your gambling junkie buddies and you will find a bookie... I've been playing with the same guy for 10 years now...
jdon
October 11th, 2013 at 10:36 AM ^
Lines I love this week:
Missouri +7.5
Florida +7
NW +10
Washington +14
October 11th, 2013 at 11:28 AM ^
lulz Florida is going to get waxed.
October 11th, 2013 at 5:16 PM ^
Love the Mizz +7.5 anf FLA +7 plays. UGA is short something like, what, 9 starters? Huh? Dog's have an OK Defense but I think Mizzou can move on them the hook is key there though. As for the Gators, their defense is looks pretty good to me and they'll need it to be vs the Tigers. The Gator offense is OK but has a good matchup vs what I think is an OK Tiger D, Looks like money is starting to flow to Florida so if you locked in +7, good on you.
Northwestern: I'm personally taking a pass on this one. You got a good look at both teams vs a common opponent: Ohio State. I think Wisco had a better game on the road than NW did at home. And margin of victory, or defeat rather, isn't what I mean. You're getting a lot of help so that good but I can't get comfortable with either side of this one.
Washington: Dogs are legit this year. Had them last week vs. Stanford and I feel like they earned an outright win everywhere but where it mattered, on the scoreboard. In case you're wondering, they covered. However...Oregon. This is another one I'm passing on but, I think this could work. Just depends if the Huskie's D can run enough interference. My gut says they can, but...Oregon.
October 11th, 2013 at 10:55 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 10:56 AM ^
I've been burned by Cincinnati a couple times this year. I have a hard time envisioning UC beating anyone by 21 after losing to USF.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:00 AM ^
I feel like Washington, getting around 14 points, is a good bet. Washington is at home, and I think their offense can hang in there.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:13 AM ^
Washington. I think they are climbing their way back to being a strong program. I do, however, believe that they are going to find out this weekend that they have a good deal further to climb. I think the Huskies are going to reside in the ole woodshed this weekend.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:03 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 12:49 PM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 11:08 AM ^
I like Nebraska -14, Northern Illinois -22.5, Northwestern +10,
October 11th, 2013 at 11:12 AM ^
October 11th, 2013 at 11:14 AM ^
There's gambling on the Internet?
October 11th, 2013 at 11:23 AM ^
NW +10 looks awfully spicy, but it also feels like a trap.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:26 AM ^
I also like Cal +25.5 against UCLA.
October 11th, 2013 at 11:28 AM ^
Clemson -14 1st half, Army -7.5, Clemson -24.5
October 11th, 2013 at 12:08 PM ^
sports gambling outside of Vegas is illegal.
Second, I have Michigan easily covering the 3 point spread. PSU is on their way down. Last week I saw glimpses of Michigan returning to form offensively. And, Jake Ryan coming back, maybe?
Third, I like that NW +10.5 line. I think I'll take it.
Fourth, sports gambling outside of Vegas is illegal.
That is all.
October 11th, 2013 at 12:10 PM ^
I like Va Tech and LSU to cover as well.
October 11th, 2013 at 12:08 PM ^
Seems to me as if NW is damn near a lock at +10.5. I like Indy at lot at +9.5 too. Of course me liking a line means missed field goals and a damn close non-cover (See: Louisville last night at -17.5).
October 11th, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^
Louisville and their 3 turnovers can go.. well, you know.
And I would appreciate it if everybody would stop calling the NW spread a "lock." It's pretty much guaranteeing that I lose money.
October 11th, 2013 at 4:05 PM ^
It all but eliminates Northwestern from the division race.
October 11th, 2013 at 12:44 PM ^
I think Michigan -2.5 and NW + 10 are odds that are too good to be true. That is why if I am a betting man, I would bet on PSU and Wisc! If everyone is betting on UM and NW, the odds must move. But if the odds do not move, it is time to panic!!! My prediction is huge win for Wisc and first loss for UM.
October 12th, 2013 at 10:10 PM ^
That deserves an after-the-fact +1.
I basically have two rules (these are actually for financial markets, not football, but I think the principal's the same):
1. If I think something looks like free money I probably know less than I think. If I have good reason to think I really have some unusual expertise I might possibly play it but I usually let these go.
2. If I hear a lot of other people saying something looks like free money, I fade it.
October 11th, 2013 at 12:56 PM ^
I'll take NW to at least cover that spread. The M spread is dicey though. I have a feeling M will win by more than that, but I won't be surprised if they have yet another tough game on the road.
October 11th, 2013 at 5:42 PM ^
Man, you've got some stones, hoss. Cincy offense has laid some collosal eggs but their defense has also dominated two bad squads in SFLA and Purdue. I'm leaning Temple with the points buttheir offense is just terrible. Cincy could hold the owls under, say, 14, but dont think they'll get to 35. Hell, the only FBS team Cincy put up more than 21 on was Purdue...sheee, sorry buddy, Temple's the play here. But, good God, the owls are bad. No Thanks.
If anything, I think the Under is the play but that's not my game so...whatever.
I'ma keep my powder dry on this one, but I'll put 1 MGoPoint on Temple +21 and another on Under 53.
October 12th, 2013 at 5:43 AM ^
Sharp minds in the sports gambling arena. I follow @bookiecrushers but there are lots of guys hitting over 60% which is damn good.