OT - Your NFL Worst-to-First Prediction for 2016?
Celebrating the end of the OT season... I bring you another annual installment of "NFL Worst to First." I have been doing these for several years in a row -- hey, as long as the streak continues, I'll keep posting these annually.
For 12 of the past 13 years (2014 being the only exception), a team in the NFL went from last in its division one year to winning its division the following year. The 2015 team to accomplish this? Think hard... they have a really horrible owner and a lot of Native Americans don't like their team name.
So, what is your prediction for the team that will win its division this season, having come in last place in its division last year? Here are your inglorious candidates:
AFC East: Miami Dolphins
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
AFC North: Cleveland Browns
AFC South: Tennessee Titans
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC West: San Francisco Noharbaughs
NFC North: Chicago Bears
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ex officio: Arsenal Gunners
Slim pickin's, huh? It's not just a question of which team has improved... it's also how good of a division they are in. Rule out SF, because even if they play better than last year under their new coach (can they be worse?), they have the Seahawks and Cardinals to overcome, and the Rams aren't any worse than the Noharbaughs, and SF still has Yorke pulling the strings. Cleveland gets eliminated because Cleveland. (Wait... does that rule still apply anymore (see: Cavs)? RG3 is their QB? Yes, yes the rule still applies.) And the Gunners won't win it all because the laws of physics apparently forbid them from winning it all. Plus they play a different kind of football in a different league in a different country.
So, reaching into the grab bag, the chip I'll pull out is: San Diego Chargers. Denver has no QB, KC and Oakland are meh, and SD is due for a turnaround after all those injuries last year. The Bears, Titans and Buccanneers might not be aweful, but their divisions are too tough.
What say you?
I would go with the Cowboys if I had to choose. Weak division and Romo and Dez are healthy.
Cowboys seem to be the only possible pick for me from that list if I absolutely had to pick one. I honestly don't see any of them winning their division though.
The others are just so bad. Love to see SF in last too. Thank you for the gift SF!
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:09 AM ^
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:37 AM ^
Romo and Dez are healthy... for now
Brain says Tampa Bay. Have best QB of any of the choices and I think the Panthers will come back to earth next year, Atlanta's a hot mess and New Orleans defense makes Rich Rod blush.
It's the Bucs.
The sooner you accept that the Browns will forever suck the better off you will be.
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:38 AM ^
But who cares, Cavs.
Having said that, if we actually give Hue Jackson at least 3 years I think he will get it done. (My definition of getting it done is the Browns playing a game that resembles football)
August 3rd, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
I dont know if you've been following WKNR or 92.3 lately but man are the stories coming out now about last year's camp amazing. One of the NFL insiders (dont remember who) said last year's Brown's coaching staff might have been the WORST in NFL history. I guess they basically stood around and did next to nothing for the first week or so and then they went to Buffallo to scrimmage the bills and got the absolute SHIT beaten out of them both physically and mentally by the Bills.
I'm with you on Hue. If Haslam gives him time we're gonna be ok. And from what I've heard it's his wife Dee that is taking more charge of things and everybody seems to be in agreement that it's a very good thing she is.
Oh....and go Cavs. Sometime between August 18-25th I get to go to the Q and get my pic taken with the Larry O'Brien trophy due to my membership in Wine & Gold United.
August 3rd, 2016 at 11:33 AM ^
The stories have made me sick. Riz always alluded to it without directly calling them out, but when they were fired he started going off with both barrels that it was basically a spa treatment.
I hate how much I like Dustin Fox on Bull and Fox.
Yeah, Cowboys are the logical pick this year - especially with how weak that division was. I'm gonna go with the Browns as my sleeper pick though. There's some devil magic going down in Cleveland this year.
The Indians are falling back a bit. 8-8 after ASG. Think reality may set in with them.
AFC East: Pats are still too strong.
AFC West: Denver, KC won't be giving up ground
AFC North: Cleveland is a joke, they'll be lucky to win 2.
AFC South: Titans don't have much talent, they will scrape out 5, 6 wins.
NFC East: This is the only division I can see it happening. All these teams scream average to me.
NFC North: Bears have a horrible offense, GB and Minnesota are head and shoulders above Chicago.
NFC South: Bucs are okay, but don't think they have enough to get to the top.
NFC West: See above for SF.
Hate the Cowboys, but they're the easy choice.
Out of all that crapfest of teams, those 2 would be your likely candidates.
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:03 AM ^
I don't see the Chargers improving all that much this year. Oakland is a good young team and Kansas City and Denver are still good. Even if Denver lost their QB, that defense is still top notch and won them the Super Bowl.
Cowboys. And it will annoy me for some reason I can't quite place.
*Puts paper bag on head*
Lions, just like every year...
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:18 AM ^
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:38 AM ^
They were last.
Drafting a TE in the first round, then following it up with a 1st round OL who looked like he could have been picked up off the practice squad. Starting 1-7 and then beating up on a bunch of crap teams to give the Stafford lovers and Lions slaps hope again for the next season.
They may not have been last, but they were last.
Did you read the question?
I think the Cowboys are the safer pick. Mostly because the NFC East is pretty meh and the division winner usually ends up going 9-7. Their offense could be pretty damn good if Romo and Bryant stay healthy. Elliott will have his rookie moments next year, but he should still have a ton of room to run behind their OL.
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The Bucs' defense bent, but did not break against Brees and Ryan last year as they went 3-1 against them. They held them to 20 points and under in those wins. Having ex-Falcons' HC Mike Smith as DC should help even more against them hopefully.
They have a good, but not very deep DL and very good linebackers with Alexander and David. If they're secondary improves at all, they should be good to go.
They had no answer for Cam and the Panthers last year, but hopefully he's still pouting from the Super Bowl and they'll have a down year.
I'm picking the Bucs and not just because I'm a Bucs fan, but mostly because I'm a Bucs fan.
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
They've got a lot of great pieces on offense, and if Winston keeps his act together (by all accounts, so far he has), they could be great on offense next year. The defense just concerns me.
They have McCoy, David, maybe Kwon Alexander, and that's it. Everyone else is just meh or an unproven rookie. The secondary is garbage until proven otherwise, and I'm honestly not all that sure that Hargreaves is the answer at corner. Going by one game's worth of data is tough, but after watching Rudock/Chesson torch him in the Citrus Bowl, I'm not sure how he's going to hold up when he goes against a guy like Julio Jones.
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So will KC. The AFC West will be competitive this year with Denver dropping off because Elway's ego wouldn't allow him to pony up another million to keep Brock.
As much as I hate saying this, I have to go with the Cowboys. I detest Jones and firmly believe that Romo is one of the most skilled choke artists in the game. But they're good enough to beat the average out of the NFC East.
I kinda wish Detroit was in the NFC East - anymore, it's a crappy division that gets by on reputation. I think Detroit could win that division...
Cowboys are the only team that has a chance, especially with how bad that division was last year!
The Cowboys. When healthy I would say they are a top 5 team regardless of division. Romo and Dez are healthy again, their o-line is the best in the NFL, they got Elliot in the draft (fuck that guy), and their defense is good enough.
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:20 AM ^
and I'd add their division isn't great.
Going to go out on a limb and say the Tennessee Titans win the AFC South this year.
Long time reader, first time poster. The obvious answer here is America's team the Dallas Cowboys. Healthy Romo and Bryant with the best offensive lines in the league. Their defense will blow more than Michael Irvin in the 90's. Their division is also weak.
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:00 AM ^
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:14 AM ^
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August 3rd, 2016 at 10:20 AM ^
Bucs and Chargers
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:31 AM ^
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August 3rd, 2016 at 10:35 AM ^
Cowboys, unfortunately, are the best pick. They were last because of injuries . With Dez and Romo back, plus that OLine, they will be much improved.
For the rest of the league I've got:
AFC: NE, Pittsburgh, Hou and KC with Jax and Oakland getting surprise wild cards.
NFC: Dallas, Carolina, Green Bay, Seattle with Arizona and Minny grabbing the wild cards.
Foooootbaaaaaawwwwwllllllll!!!!
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
The Raiders have a good young squad but can they consistently put up points? The Broncos have a great D but Mark Sanchez will probably be the starter at QB... an iffy proposition at best.
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^
If they can win a SB with a QB who finished with 9 TD/17 INT and a 67 QBR, they can win with Sanchez. In fact, Sanchez will probably be at the same level or even a slight upgrade from what Peyton gave them last season.
August 3rd, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
but down the stretch, including the big comeback in New England, Brock Osweiler was the QB.
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
Fun stat about the Lions... the last time they won the division was 1993, that means they haven't won the division in 22 years. Now, I know it used to be the NFC Central and there were 5 teams in there for a bit, but for simplicity let's just use 4 teams for the calculation... pure odds puts them at a 25% chance of winning the division every single year.
As such, the % chance of them not winning the division every year is 75%. 75%^22 = .18%.
The Lions, over the last 22 years, statistically, had a 99.82% chance of winning the division at least once and have failed to do so.
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^
August 3rd, 2016 at 10:56 AM ^
As others have said, 10-6 will clearly win the division (with 6 games against very beatable division opponents) and 9-7 may well be good enough. So, if they go 4-2 within the division, 5-5 against everyone else might be good enough. Romo can miss a few games, and they can still manage to hit that mark.
August 3rd, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
I'm super biased but that Dolphins D could be great and if Gase works well with Tannehill, look out Pats.
Cowboys? Romo has to stay on the field and Kellen Moore just got hurt. Chargers, maybe.
August 3rd, 2016 at 11:46 AM ^
And the Redskins faithful are convinced they'll repeat as division winners and go deep into the playoffs.
Therefore, I think it's safe to bet the Cowboys are the worst to best team this year.