OT - World Cup Semifinal #1 GER v. BRA, ESPN, 3:00pm CDT
Argentina wins 3-2. Messi with 2 goals with the second and winner in the 86th minute.
that may be the worst possible outcome possible in this cup! I don't know whether I'm hoping Brazil wins more than I'm just hoping Argentina doesn't... but a last minute goal by argentina in a situation like that would kill me...
I say Brazil x Argentina in the final... the two biggest rivals head-to-head... everything to play for... 2x1 Brazil, scoring off a corner kick in the 90th...
WWII war criminals will be on the edge of their collective seats....
The old man responds - "soccer is game where guys run back and forth kicking the ball for 90 minutes trying to get it in the goal and when the game is over, Germany wins."
I like Die Mannschaft's chances with both Silva and Neymar out for the match. That puts tremendous pressure on Oscar and Hulk to produce (Fred has been disappointing thus far), and the Germans have done a good job sensitizing the refs to Brazil's penchant for tactical hard fouling. I think that adds up to a German win on Brazilian soil.
Does anyone know how the amnesty kicks in for yellow cards. If a player pulls a second yellow in the quarterfinals, does he simply carry one forward for the balance of the tournament. Or does everyone enter the quarterfinals with a clean slate? I know there's some sort of amnesty that kicks in with the quarterfinals, but have not seen how exactly it works.
One could be suspended for the semifinals via card accumulation (which is why Thiago Silva is out), but yellow cards are reset after the quarterfinals in order to ensure that no one is suspended for the final via card accumulation.
Thanks - that's very helpful. And based on your avatar I'm going to take a wild guess and predict you're pulling for Die Manschafft.
Call it intuition.
You'd guess correctly. Auf gehts (or, to go with the dialect of my avatar, Pack ma's)!
If a player were to get 2 yellow's in the semi-finals, is he out for the finals?
Yes. The second yellow would draw a red card and an automatic 1-game suspension.
What's up with this CDT bullshit.
Shut your mouth.
I don't know how today's is a "toss-up," given that Silva and Neymar are out. Would love to see a Brazil-Argentina final, though. If the not-Messis show up for Argentina, they will be hard to beat. If it's Messi v. the Dutch, Messi will be slightly less hard to beat.
This game was a tossup if everyone was healthy.
Germany losing today would be an upset.
I think the home-field advantage for Brazil gives them enough to match up with Germany. Then again, the immense pressure (really never seen anything like it in sports, actually) may backfire on the Brazilians.
I think there's a definite limit to home field advantage. Germany in the WC semis without your 2 best players is too much to overcome I think.
I'm with you, but my gut is telling me that Brazil is going to play out of their skulls, with or without Neymar and Silva. This is why I don't make money gambling.
Here's how it looks now on FiveThirtyEight for those who remain:
| SPI | TEAM |
GROUP
|
FINAL | WIN |
| 90.8 |
Brazil
|
A |
73%
|
54%
|
| 89.6 |
Argentina
|
F |
57%
|
20%
|
| 88.7 |
Germany
|
G |
27%
|
14%
|
| 87.5 |
Netherlands
|
B |
43%
|
13%
|
Statistics/algorithms/shmastistics. You don't have that high of a chance to win a game without your only attacking presence, and one of the best defenders in the world (the best IMHO, Kompany has had as good a year excluding a horrific quarterfinal against Argentina). Especially against a healthy German midfield.
People are deluding themselves if they think Dante is as good a defender as Silva. Silva broke up at least one odd-man rush against Columbia, and I don't remember him losing an aerial 50-50 ball.
Yikes. Nate Silver took one on the chin there.
Today I think Germany wins. I think they score early.
I'll count 11 minutes as early.
apparently.
Odd, seems the mods have edited out where I also predict the Germans go up 5 nil in the first half. Shame.
Brazil: Julio Cesar, David Luiz (c), Fernandinho, Marcelo, Hulk, Fred, Oscar, Dante, Luiz Gustavo, Bernard, Maicon
Germany: Neuer, Hoewedes, Hummels, Khedira, Schweinsteiger, Ozil, Klose, Muller, Lahm (c), Kroos, Boateng
I'm hoping for an early Brazil goal so Germany has every reason to attack them. If Germany scores first, I think the game plays out a lot like Germany vs. France.
I think it plays out a lot like Spain v. Netherlands. (The 2010 version.)
This is a Scolari team we're talking about here. There's no way they let the other side play tiki taka.
We're both wrong.
this is over
Way too easy. If Germany don't fall back they could get a few more easily.
Hulk sucks
Getting flashbacks to the 1998 finals. And as I type another goal
3-rock.
This looks like an according-to-Hoyle ass-kicking.