OT - World Cup Draw, it could have been worse

Submitted by mgobaran on

Is this Real Life:
So here is the way it played out. And some bad math to draw sketchy conclusions from.

GROUP A
RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 10 SPAIN 1
CROATIA 16 NETHERLANDS 9
MEXICO 20 CHILE 15
CAMEROON 51 AUSTRALIA 59
avg:
24.25
avg:
21
high: 10 high: 1
low: 51 low: 59
std. dev.: 18.301 std. dev.: 25.974
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 4 URUGUAY 6
GREECE 12 COSTA RICA 31
COTE d'IVORIE 17 ENGLAND 13
JAPAN 48 ITALY 7
avg:
20.25
avg:
14.25
high: 4 high: 6
low: 48 low: 31
std. dev.: 19.259 std. dev.: 11.587
       
GROUP E
RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 8 ARGENTINA 3
ECUADOR 23 BOSNIA-HERZ. 21
FRANCE
19 IRAN 45
HONDURAS 41 NIGERIA 36
avg:
22.75
avg:
26.25
high: 8 high: 3
low: 41 low: 45
std. dev.: 13.720 std. dev.: 18.392
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 2 BELGIUM 11
PORTUGAL 5 ALGERIA 26
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 22
USA 14 S. KOREA 54
avg:
11.25
avg:
28.25
high: 2 high: 11
low: 24 low: 54
std. dev.: 9.912 std. dev.: 18.301

Group G, more like Group of Greath, amirite?

Other Possible Scenarios:
But things could have been even worse. And they could have been so much better. Here is a chart with USA taking the place of everyone from their pot. 

GROUP A RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 10 SPAIN 1
CROATIA 16 NETHERLANDS 9
USA 14 CHILE 15
CAMEROON 51 USA 14
avg:
22.75
avg:
9.75
high: 10 high: 1
low: 51 low: 15
std. dev.: 18.998 std. dev.: 6.397
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 4 URUGUAY 6
GREECE 12 USA 14
COTE d'IVORIE 17 ENGLAND 13
USA 14 ITALY 7
avg:
11.75
avg:
10
high: 4 high: 6
low: 17 low: 14
std. dev.: 5.560 std. dev.: 4.082
       
GROUP E
RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 8 ARGENTINA 3
ECUADOR 23 BOSNIA-HERZ. 21
FRANCE
19 USA 14
USA 14 NIGERIA 36
avg:
16
avg:
18.5
high: 8 high: 3
low: 23 low: 36
std. dev.: 6.481 std. dev.: 13.820
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 2 BELGIUM 11
PORTUGAL 5 ALGERIA 26
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 22
USA 14 USA 14
avg:
11.25
avg:
18.25
high: 2 high: 11
low: 24 low: 26
std. dev.: 9.912 std. dev.: 6.946

My analysis on the averages...

So the USA got screwed, but the are 2 scenarios in which things could have got a whole lot tougher. If we landed in Group B, the average FIFA ranking would have been south of the TOP 10! Group D, is exactly 10, and we would have been the worst team in that group (according to FIFA). The only other group close to Group G, is Group C, which is half a ranking higher in difficulty. 

My analysis on the standard deviations...

I am treating this as, the lower the standard deviation the more competitve the games in that group would be. Idk if competition would be better or worse, based on other teams being able to keep you in it based on two teams drawing. I am treating it as a worse option to have a low standard deviation based on the assumption it would be harder to get three points in that case.

Currently our group is at 9.912. The most competitve would have been if we landed in that dreaded group D. yikes. 2nd worse would be group C. In which case C may be a little easier in terms of competition, but you're trading that in for some close games. If we landed in group B, E, or H, the standard deviations would have been relatively the same, with varying degrees of strength of schedule.

Dog Gif:

 

What could have been:
Believe it or not, the numbers say Group A, with Brazil at home would have been by far the easiest track. In my opinion, I fell landing in group E or H would have been more Ideal. 

Now do I think we are the 14th best in the world? No. I believe we could beat several teams ranked above us. FIFA rankings can kiss my ass!

 

TL;DR section:
USA is in the Group of Death. We ended up in the 3rd or 4th hardest group possible, as long as every other team stayed where they were drawn. The best 3 groups we could have gone to are Group A, Group E or Group H. 

Group F looks like it has a favorable average, but it has the highest standard deviation. Our chances of winning that group aren't as strong as A, E, or H, but the chances of moving on are better then where we are currently. 

[edit]: Thanks for being patient through the reformatting, and editing process. I threw this together real quick and don't know what I am doing.

Mr. Yost

December 6th, 2013 at 3:48 PM ^

Basically I just woke up at 4:30am on the first day you could submit in the the random draw selection.

I chose to pick the date and venue (I knew I wanted to go to Rio, and I knew I wanted it to be a "meaningful"/tournament game, so I really didn't care who was playing)

Rio's final game is the World Cup final, so I chose the 2nd to last game played in Maracana which is the Quarterfinal match.

It was a risky move, and I'll likely be watching Germany advance...but if, IF, somehow USA can WIN their group and then win the Round of 16, I'll be watching them on the 4th. That would be amazing. We'll see.

Anyway, 2 months later, I got an e-mail from the Fifa Ticket Center saying that I won and my order had been processed.

I should have airfare finalized tonight, but the lodging has been tough. Hotel rates are crazy and I just don't know if I trust all of these apartments that are popping up offering stays. People say they're legit, but I'm not sure.

In '96 my family went to Atlanta for the Olympics and a frat was renting out their house, so we did that it worked well, but again, that was obviously in America. I've been sketchy about going that route in Brazil.

So I'm still doing a little research, but I believe the 3rd round of tickets are being released in the next couple of days so I want to nail down my stay before a million more people get awarded tickets.

 

WolvinLA2

December 6th, 2013 at 3:54 PM ^

My brother-in-law is a ticket broker and is in Brazil right now.  If you have trouble getting tickets, let me know and I'll give you my email address and put you guys in touch.  That goes for anyone else too, obviously.  Except M-Wolverine.  I hate that guy.

mGrowOld

December 6th, 2013 at 1:05 PM ^

The US got screwed by an international governing sports body known for corruption.

No. Fucking.Way.

Next thing I'll find out is my beloved figuring skating is not 100% legit.

mgobaran

December 6th, 2013 at 3:50 PM ^

We got pulled out of pot 3 because of our Geography. Since we were't in the top 8 in FIFA that is. 

http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2013/12/4/5081552/world-cup-draw-2014

It went:

POT 1: The Seeds(Host + top 7)

POT 2: Europe

POT 3: Asia, North & Central America

POT 4: Africa & South America

We are 14th by FIFA (17th SPI) & top seed in our Pot. That is pretty damned good. Only a few are expected to win a world cup. Based off our world ranking, we should be expected to make it to the round of 16. And it wouldn't be shocking to make it further.

Our Group went (again according to FIFA) 2nd in the World, Top Seed from POT 2, Top Seed from POT 3, and Top Seed from POT 4.

jmblue

December 6th, 2013 at 4:24 PM ^

But that's the thing - we're not (and I don't think we ever have been) a seeded team, which means that we've got to play one of the seeded teams in our group every time.  Other than Switzerland, all of the seeded teams this year are really tough, as they usually are.  At that point, you've basically got to hope for two crappy opponents to round out your group, and that's not too likely.

(This brings up my age-old rant that CONCACAF sucks.  It may be easy to qualify for the WC from there, but it's terrible when it comes to actually preparing us to play in it, not to mention the fact that all its garbage teams are a drag on our ranking.  There should be a single confederation for all of the Americas.)

 

WolvinLA2

December 6th, 2013 at 4:35 PM ^

But the problem is that if the groups were made in any normal way, the US should be the second best team in their bracket, or should be third behind a seeded team and team similar to us.  Instead, we are in a group with 2 teams who should both be seeded, but for some stupid reason, are not.  There is no reason Portugal shouldn't be a seeded team.  

There is absolutely no reason why Mexico is the second best team in their group and we are the third.  That's absolute horse shit.  Mexico made it in by the skin of their teeth and should be the 4th best team in their group.  

WolvinLA2

December 6th, 2013 at 6:52 PM ^

Portugal is one of the top teams in the world year-in and year-out and has one of the top players in the world.  They are much better than Mexico.  

I probably should have said "could be seeded" instead of should.  Rankings aside, they're easily one of the best non-seeded teams in the WC.  

mgobaran

December 6th, 2013 at 1:32 PM ^

Not really. A strong worst ranked team makes a huge difference. Germany won't be able to push teams like the USA and Ghana around as easily as a team ranked 52nd or something. The possiblity of a draw or even a loss goes way up over what would be considered 3 free points. How often do the two favorites come out of the group of death? I would say close to never. 

I'll say this right now though. Portugal is a joke. They are soft. And sure they have Ronaldo, but that guy is the biggest choke artist in the World Cup. He seems to never lead his team far. I guarantee that we walk away from that game with 3 points.

Yeoman

December 6th, 2013 at 1:24 PM ^

...in Europe the FIFA rankings are treated as a source of comedy. I didn't realize things were different here.

Is there anyone that actually thinks Brazil is only #10 in the world, or the fourth best team in South America?

Lorne

December 6th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^

Thanks! Please don't take my comment as trashing your work I appreciate you putting it together!I believe we actually ended up in an ok spot.. sure it could have been easier but it could have been much much worse too (Group B!) and I think the SPI ranking will show that

mgobaran

December 6th, 2013 at 1:45 PM ^

I used FIFA Rankings because that is how the pots are seperated. The SPI does change things a bit.

ACTUAL:

GROUP A RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 1 SPAIN 3
CROATIA 31 NETHERLANDS 9
MEXICO 26 CHILE 5
CAMEROON 39 AUSTRALIA 53
avg: 24.25 avg: 17.5
high: 1 high: 3
low: 39 low: 53
std. dev.: 16.399 std. dev.: 23.798
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 6 URUGUAY 8
GREECE 23 COSTA RICA 25
COTE d'IVORIE 18 ENGLAND 10
JAPAN 32 ITALY 13
avg: 19.75 avg: 14
high: 6 high: 8
low: 32 low: 25
std. dev.: 10.844 std. dev.: 7.616
       
GROUP E RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 22 ARGENTINA 2
ECUADOR 11 BOSNIA-HERZ. 14
FRANCE 7 IRAN 38
HONDURAS 33 NIGERIA 28
avg: 18.25 avg: 20.5
high: 7 high: 2
low: 33 low: 38
std. dev.: 11.701 std. dev.: 15.780
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 4 BELGIUM 12
PORTUGAL 16 ALGERIA 69
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 15
USA 17 S. KOREA 37
avg: 15.25 avg: 33.25
high: 4 high: 12
low: 24 low: 69
std. dev.: 8.302 std. dev.: 26.311

 

mgobaran

December 6th, 2013 at 1:52 PM ^

Our group's average is currently 15.25 according to SPI.

GROUP B = 8.5(!!)

GROUP D = 12

GROUP E = 14.25

GROUP F = 15.25 (same)

GROUP A RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 1 SPAIN 3
CROATIA 31 NETHERLANDS 9
USA 17 CHILE 5
CAMEROON 39 USA 17
avg: 22 avg: 8.5
high: 1 high: 3
low: 39 low: 17
std. dev.: 16.693 std. dev.: 6.191
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 6 URUGUAY 8
GREECE 23 USA 17
COTE d'IVORIE 18 ENGLAND 10
USA 17 ITALY 13
avg: 16 avg: 12
high: 6 high: 8
low: 23 low: 17
std. dev.: 7.165 std. dev.: 3.916
       
GROUP E RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 22 ARGENTINA 2
ECUADOR 11 BOSNIA-HERZ. 14
FRANCE 7 USA 17
USA 17 NIGERIA 28
avg: 14.25 avg: 15.25
high: 7 high: 2
low: 22 low: 28
std. dev.: 6.602 std. dev.: 10.689
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 4 BELGIUM 12
PORTUGAL 16 ALGERIA 69
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 15
USA 17 USA 17
avg: 15.25 avg: 28.25
high: 4 high: 12
low: 24 low: 69
std. dev.: 8.302 std. dev.: 27.244

 

Lorne

December 6th, 2013 at 2:03 PM ^

Thanks! just as I thought... when you run SPI numbers it actually could have been worse 3 of the 8 other groups and just as bad in 1 leaving only three possible draws that would have been better for us. with some absolutely disastrous possibilities in B&D. I really appreciate you doing this!

Lorne

December 6th, 2013 at 1:42 PM ^

While I can certainly dream up a disatourous showing for us in this group... I can also absolutely see us moving on. While Ghana has been a thorn in the past two WCs those games could have easily gone our way. Portugal barely made it into this WC and i believe we are actually on par with them. We beat them in 2002 WC. While the draw is difficult I think our travel is actually more of an issue then the teams we drew.

UMQuadz05

December 6th, 2013 at 1:48 PM ^

The USA was always going to be in a group of death, because they MAKE it the Group of Death.  All the seeded teams looked at Pot C and said "I hope we don't get the Yanks". 

To advance, we have to beat Ghana, tie Portugal, and then wait for them to melt down, I guess.

alum96

December 6th, 2013 at 6:40 PM ^

^This.

Not always, but most of the time the US is going to be one of the better pot C teams so by definition most (not all) of the years they will be in a tough group.  2010 was an exception as England was...well England, and a weak Algeria (Pot 3) and Pot 4 team was bad.   Still the U.S. was struggling to advance.

bo_lives

December 6th, 2013 at 1:50 PM ^

because America still doesn't care about soccer!

Okay maybe some people do. And for them, this admittedly sucks. Though if the US actually made it out of this group it'd be pretty sweet indeed.

Yeoman

December 6th, 2013 at 2:06 PM ^

Missed the nightmare scenario of a group with Italy or the Dutch; probably have relatively easy draws in the first two knockout matches (Belgium or S. Korea, then maybe France or Switzerland or Nigeria); have the fun of Loew v. Klinsmann and Boateng v. Boateng along the way.