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OT - World Cup Draw, it could have been worse

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December 6th, 2013 at 1:57 PM
#1
mgobaran
mgobaran's picture
Joined: 09/12/2012
MGoPoints: 18042
OT - World Cup Draw, it could have been worse

Is this Real Life:
So here is the way it played out. And some bad math to draw sketchy conclusions from.

GROUP A
RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 10 SPAIN 1
CROATIA 16 NETHERLANDS 9
MEXICO 20 CHILE 15
CAMEROON 51 AUSTRALIA 59
avg:
24.25
avg:
21
high: 10 high: 1
low: 51 low: 59
std. dev.: 18.301 std. dev.: 25.974
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 4 URUGUAY 6
GREECE 12 COSTA RICA 31
COTE d'IVORIE 17 ENGLAND 13
JAPAN 48 ITALY 7
avg:
20.25
avg:
14.25
high: 4 high: 6
low: 48 low: 31
std. dev.: 19.259 std. dev.: 11.587
       
GROUP E
RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 8 ARGENTINA 3
ECUADOR 23 BOSNIA-HERZ. 21
FRANCE
19 IRAN 45
HONDURAS 41 NIGERIA 36
avg:
22.75
avg:
26.25
high: 8 high: 3
low: 41 low: 45
std. dev.: 13.720 std. dev.: 18.392
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 2 BELGIUM 11
PORTUGAL 5 ALGERIA 26
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 22
USA 14 S. KOREA 54
avg:
11.25
avg:
28.25
high: 2 high: 11
low: 24 low: 54
std. dev.: 9.912 std. dev.: 18.301

Group G, more like Group of Greath, amirite?

Other Possible Scenarios:
But things could have been even worse. And they could have been so much better. Here is a chart with USA taking the place of everyone from their pot. 

GROUP A RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 10 SPAIN 1
CROATIA 16 NETHERLANDS 9
USA 14 CHILE 15
CAMEROON 51 USA 14
avg:
22.75
avg:
9.75
high: 10 high: 1
low: 51 low: 15
std. dev.: 18.998 std. dev.: 6.397
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 4 URUGUAY 6
GREECE 12 USA 14
COTE d'IVORIE 17 ENGLAND 13
USA 14 ITALY 7
avg:
11.75
avg:
10
high: 4 high: 6
low: 17 low: 14
std. dev.: 5.560 std. dev.: 4.082
       
GROUP E
RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 8 ARGENTINA 3
ECUADOR 23 BOSNIA-HERZ. 21
FRANCE
19 USA 14
USA 14 NIGERIA 36
avg:
16
avg:
18.5
high: 8 high: 3
low: 23 low: 36
std. dev.: 6.481 std. dev.: 13.820
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 2 BELGIUM 11
PORTUGAL 5 ALGERIA 26
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 22
USA 14 USA 14
avg:
11.25
avg:
18.25
high: 2 high: 11
low: 24 low: 26
std. dev.: 9.912 std. dev.: 6.946

My analysis on the averages...

So the USA got screwed, but the are 2 scenarios in which things could have got a whole lot tougher. If we landed in Group B, the average FIFA ranking would have been south of the TOP 10! Group D, is exactly 10, and we would have been the worst team in that group (according to FIFA). The only other group close to Group G, is Group C, which is half a ranking higher in difficulty. 

My analysis on the standard deviations...

I am treating this as, the lower the standard deviation the more competitve the games in that group would be. Idk if competition would be better or worse, based on other teams being able to keep you in it based on two teams drawing. I am treating it as a worse option to have a low standard deviation based on the assumption it would be harder to get three points in that case.

Currently our group is at 9.912. The most competitve would have been if we landed in that dreaded group D. yikes. 2nd worse would be group C. In which case C may be a little easier in terms of competition, but you're trading that in for some close games. If we landed in group B, E, or H, the standard deviations would have been relatively the same, with varying degrees of strength of schedule.

Dog Gif:

 

What could have been:
Believe it or not, the numbers say Group A, with Brazil at home would have been by far the easiest track. In my opinion, I fell landing in group E or H would have been more Ideal. 

Now do I think we are the 14th best in the world? No. I believe we could beat several teams ranked above us. FIFA rankings can kiss my ass!

 

TL;DR section:
USA is in the Group of Death. We ended up in the 3rd or 4th hardest group possible, as long as every other team stayed where they were drawn. The best 3 groups we could have gone to are Group A, Group E or Group H. 

Group F looks like it has a favorable average, but it has the highest standard deviation. Our chances of winning that group aren't as strong as A, E, or H, but the chances of moving on are better then where we are currently. 

[edit]: Thanks for being patient through the reformatting, and editing process. I threw this together real quick and don't know what I am doing.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:00 PM
#2
gwkrlghl
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Joined: 04/13/2012
MGoPoints: 71
It'll be even cooler now when

It'll be even cooler now when we win it all

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:59 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
ken725
ken725's picture
Joined: 10/26/2008
MGoPoints: 27659
Just thought I'd post it at

Just thought I'd post it at the top so people can read if they are interested.

http://www.businessinsider.com/world-cup-groups-uneven-2013-12

I had no idea FIFA did the draws this way.

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:23 PM
(Reply to #50) #4
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
That's incredibly absurd.

That's incredibly absurd.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:01 PM
#5
Mr. Yost
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Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: -9898289
We got screwed.

The end.

Nonetheless, I'm going.

I'll be in Rio for the Quarterfinal Match - don't care who's playing - can't wait!

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:21 PM
(Reply to #3) #6
ken725
ken725's picture
Joined: 10/26/2008
MGoPoints: 27659
Did you get packaged

Did you get packaged tickets?

Anyways, stay safe while you are over there.

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:48 PM
(Reply to #37) #7
Mr. Yost
Mr. Yost's picture
Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: -9898289
Not sure...

Basically I just woke up at 4:30am on the first day you could submit in the the random draw selection.

I chose to pick the date and venue (I knew I wanted to go to Rio, and I knew I wanted it to be a "meaningful"/tournament game, so I really didn't care who was playing)

Rio's final game is the World Cup final, so I chose the 2nd to last game played in Maracana which is the Quarterfinal match.

It was a risky move, and I'll likely be watching Germany advance...but if, IF, somehow USA can WIN their group and then win the Round of 16, I'll be watching them on the 4th. That would be amazing. We'll see.

Anyway, 2 months later, I got an e-mail from the Fifa Ticket Center saying that I won and my order had been processed.

I should have airfare finalized tonight, but the lodging has been tough. Hotel rates are crazy and I just don't know if I trust all of these apartments that are popping up offering stays. People say they're legit, but I'm not sure.

In '96 my family went to Atlanta for the Olympics and a frat was renting out their house, so we did that it worked well, but again, that was obviously in America. I've been sketchy about going that route in Brazil.

So I'm still doing a little research, but I believe the 3rd round of tickets are being released in the next couple of days so I want to nail down my stay before a million more people get awarded tickets.

 

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:54 PM
(Reply to #45) #8
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
My brother-in-law is a ticket

My brother-in-law is a ticket broker and is in Brazil right now.  If you have trouble getting tickets, let me know and I'll give you my email address and put you guys in touch.  That goes for anyone else too, obviously.  Except M-Wolverine.  I hate that guy.

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:57 PM
(Reply to #45) #9
ken725
ken725's picture
Joined: 10/26/2008
MGoPoints: 27659
Good luck finalizing your

Good luck finalizing your plans.

I would be weary of those apartments as well.

I know in the last World Cup some companies were offering tickets, airfare and lodging at a insane price.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:05 PM
#10
mGrowOld
mGrowOld's picture
Joined: 10/04/2010
MGoPoints: 111763
The US got screwed by an

The US got screwed by an international governing sports body known for corruption.

No. Fucking.Way.

Next thing I'll find out is my beloved figuring skating is not 100% legit.

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December 6th, 2013 at 3:15 PM
(Reply to #4) #11
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 16385
USA got a very favorable draw

last world cup so let's not just say FIFA screwed USA.

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:27 PM
(Reply to #29) #12
ken725
ken725's picture
Joined: 10/26/2008
MGoPoints: 27659
It seems like it happens

It seems like it happens every other world cup.

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:34 PM
(Reply to #40) #13
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
It has a lot to do with the

It has a lot to do with the fact that we're not all that good, so we're usually going to be in a group with at least one team that is better than us.

 

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:50 PM
(Reply to #41) #14
mgobaran
mgobaran's picture
Joined: 09/12/2012
MGoPoints: 18042
We aren't bad.

We got pulled out of pot 3 because of our Geography. Since we were't in the top 8 in FIFA that is. 

http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2013/12/4/5081552/world-cup-draw-2014

It went:

POT 1: The Seeds(Host + top 7)

POT 2: Europe

POT 3: Asia, North & Central America

POT 4: Africa & South America

We are 14th by FIFA (17th SPI) & top seed in our Pot. That is pretty damned good. Only a few are expected to win a world cup. Based off our world ranking, we should be expected to make it to the round of 16. And it wouldn't be shocking to make it further.

Our Group went (again according to FIFA) 2nd in the World, Top Seed from POT 2, Top Seed from POT 3, and Top Seed from POT 4.

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:24 PM
(Reply to #46) #15
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
But that's the thing - we're

But that's the thing - we're not (and I don't think we ever have been) a seeded team, which means that we've got to play one of the seeded teams in our group every time.  Other than Switzerland, all of the seeded teams this year are really tough, as they usually are.  At that point, you've basically got to hope for two crappy opponents to round out your group, and that's not too likely.

(This brings up my age-old rant that CONCACAF sucks.  It may be easy to qualify for the WC from there, but it's terrible when it comes to actually preparing us to play in it, not to mention the fact that all its garbage teams are a drag on our ranking.  There should be a single confederation for all of the Americas.)

 

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:35 PM
(Reply to #53) #16
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
But the problem is that if

But the problem is that if the groups were made in any normal way, the US should be the second best team in their bracket, or should be third behind a seeded team and team similar to us.  Instead, we are in a group with 2 teams who should both be seeded, but for some stupid reason, are not.  There is no reason Portugal shouldn't be a seeded team.  

There is absolutely no reason why Mexico is the second best team in their group and we are the third.  That's absolute horse shit.  Mexico made it in by the skin of their teeth and should be the 4th best team in their group.  

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December 6th, 2013 at 6:30 PM
(Reply to #58) #17
Yeoman
Joined: 06/08/2011
MGoPoints: 13242
Why should Portugal be seeded?

They didn't even win their qualifying group, finishing behind Russia who also isn't seeded. Like Mexico they "made it in by the skin of their teeth."

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December 6th, 2013 at 7:52 PM
(Reply to #61) #18
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
Portugal is one of the top

Portugal is one of the top teams in the world year-in and year-out and has one of the top players in the world.  They are much better than Mexico.  

I probably should have said "could be seeded" instead of should.  Rankings aside, they're easily one of the best non-seeded teams in the WC.  

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:08 PM
#19
JimBobTressel
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Joined: 11/28/2010
MGoPoints: 4235
USA might as well stay home

USA might as well stay home

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:15 PM
#20
ChiCityWolverine
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Joined: 07/08/2011
MGoPoints: 3126
Our chances for winning A

Our chances for winning A would have been 0% just so we're clear.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:38 PM
(Reply to #6) #21
andrewG
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Joined: 10/20/2010
MGoPoints: 3153
don't need to win, just

don't need to win, just advance.

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December 6th, 2013 at 3:10 PM
(Reply to #13) #22
ChiCityWolverine
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Joined: 07/08/2011
MGoPoints: 3126
Just a response to him saying

Just a response to him saying A is easier to win than F when Brazil is a stone cold lock to win A. But obviously Brazil, Spain, Argentina, and Germany are teams that merely drawing would be a dream result.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:19 PM
#23
FreddieMercuryHayes
Joined: 12/29/2010
MGoPoints: 35030
All that really matters is

All that really matters is how good the two best teams in the group are. And in this case, they're really good. No, it really couldn't have gone much worse.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:32 PM
(Reply to #7) #24
mgobaran
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Joined: 09/12/2012
MGoPoints: 18042
Bottom teams matter

Not really. A strong worst ranked team makes a huge difference. Germany won't be able to push teams like the USA and Ghana around as easily as a team ranked 52nd or something. The possiblity of a draw or even a loss goes way up over what would be considered 3 free points. How often do the two favorites come out of the group of death? I would say close to never. 

I'll say this right now though. Portugal is a joke. They are soft. And sure they have Ronaldo, but that guy is the biggest choke artist in the World Cup. He seems to never lead his team far. I guarantee that we walk away from that game with 3 points.

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December 6th, 2013 at 3:22 PM
(Reply to #10) #25
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 16385
Portugal is ranked #5 in the world

so they're a defacto #2 seed in our region.  USA has suspect defense and facing Ronaldo won't make it easy.  Saying Portugal is a joke is silly considering they have advanced past group stage since 2002.

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:58 PM
(Reply to #10) #26
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
We need to beat Ghana and we

We need to beat Ghana and we need them to beat whoever loses between Germany and Portugal.  Then we have a shot.  Getting a tie against Germany or Portugal would also be huge.  

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:24 PM
#27
Yeoman
Joined: 06/08/2011
MGoPoints: 13242
It's funny...

...in Europe the FIFA rankings are treated as a source of comedy. I didn't realize things were different here.

Is there anyone that actually thinks Brazil is only #10 in the world, or the fourth best team in South America?

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:42 PM
(Reply to #8) #28
User -not THAT user
User -not THAT user's picture
Joined: 06/05/2012
MGoPoints: 1894
They're not what they were.

...that's why hostingthe event is big for them.  Theyre still good, very much better than the USA, but this generation of players lacks the talent by a wide margin from the teams they put together from the mid-'90's through the early 2000's.

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:30 PM
(Reply to #8) #29
cmd600
Joined: 11/17/2010
MGoPoints: 183
Brazil's ranking was really

Brazil's ranking was really hurt as they didn't have to qualify, and qualifying games count more in FIFA ranking than friendlies.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:32 PM
#30
Lorne
Joined: 07/30/2009
MGoPoints: 25
Can you do this based on SPI rankings?

Can you produce this based on SPI rankings... FIFA rankings are at best a joke.  Seems we ended up in a better spot than most think and I imagine your numbers will show that even more if you use SPI. SPI link here:

 

http://espnfc.com/spi/rankings?cc=5901

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:35 PM
(Reply to #9) #31
mgobaran
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Joined: 09/12/2012
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I just tried throwing numbers

I just tried throwing numbers I could find together. I can update with SPI. No big deal. 

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:39 PM
(Reply to #11) #32
Lorne
Joined: 07/30/2009
MGoPoints: 25
Thanks! Please don't take my

Thanks! Please don't take my comment as trashing your work I appreciate you putting it together!I believe we actually ended up in an ok spot.. sure it could have been easier but it could have been much much worse too (Group B!) and I think the SPI ranking will show that

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:45 PM
(Reply to #9) #33
mgobaran
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Joined: 09/12/2012
MGoPoints: 18042
I used FIFA Rankings because

I used FIFA Rankings because that is how the pots are seperated. The SPI does change things a bit.

ACTUAL:





GROUP A RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 1 SPAIN 3
CROATIA 31 NETHERLANDS 9
MEXICO 26 CHILE 5
CAMEROON 39 AUSTRALIA 53
avg: 24.25 avg: 17.5
high: 1 high: 3
low: 39 low: 53
std. dev.: 16.399 std. dev.: 23.798
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 6 URUGUAY 8
GREECE 23 COSTA RICA 25
COTE d'IVORIE 18 ENGLAND 10
JAPAN 32 ITALY 13
avg: 19.75 avg: 14
high: 6 high: 8
low: 32 low: 25
std. dev.: 10.844 std. dev.: 7.616
       
GROUP E RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 22 ARGENTINA 2
ECUADOR 11 BOSNIA-HERZ. 14
FRANCE 7 IRAN 38
HONDURAS 33 NIGERIA 28
avg: 18.25 avg: 20.5
high: 7 high: 2
low: 33 low: 38
std. dev.: 11.701 std. dev.: 15.780
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 4 BELGIUM 12
PORTUGAL 16 ALGERIA 69
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 15
USA 17 S. KOREA 37
avg: 15.25 avg: 33.25
high: 4 high: 12
low: 24 low: 69
std. dev.: 8.302 std. dev.: 26.311

 

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:53 PM
(Reply to #16) #34
Lorne
Joined: 07/30/2009
MGoPoints: 25
Thanks! Group B (3,5 &9) &

Thanks! Group B (3,5 &9) & Group D(8,10 & 13) would have been way worse than what we drew. and according to SPI we have a 39% chance of coming out of our group as opposed to Portugal's 40%.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:56 PM
(Reply to #20) #35
mgobaran
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Joined: 09/12/2012
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Yeah, according to SPI, Group

Yeah, according to SPI, Group D should be Death. But no one cares because those countries suck anyways (probably).

/murica

Also, Austrailia makes Group B seem easier than it is. The odd man out of that group is going to be pissed by their draw.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:52 PM
(Reply to #9) #36
mgobaran
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Joined: 09/12/2012
MGoPoints: 18042
Possible Scenarios

Our group's average is currently 15.25 according to SPI.

GROUP B = 8.5(!!)

GROUP D = 12

GROUP E = 14.25

GROUP F = 15.25 (same)





GROUP A RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 1 SPAIN 3
CROATIA 31 NETHERLANDS 9
USA 17 CHILE 5
CAMEROON 39 USA 17
avg: 22 avg: 8.5
high: 1 high: 3
low: 39 low: 17
std. dev.: 16.693 std. dev.: 6.191
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 6 URUGUAY 8
GREECE 23 USA 17
COTE d'IVORIE 18 ENGLAND 10
USA 17 ITALY 13
avg: 16 avg: 12
high: 6 high: 8
low: 23 low: 17
std. dev.: 7.165 std. dev.: 3.916
       
GROUP E RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 22 ARGENTINA 2
ECUADOR 11 BOSNIA-HERZ. 14
FRANCE 7 USA 17
USA 17 NIGERIA 28
avg: 14.25 avg: 15.25
high: 7 high: 2
low: 22 low: 28
std. dev.: 6.602 std. dev.: 10.689
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 4 BELGIUM 12
PORTUGAL 16 ALGERIA 69
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 15
USA 17 USA 17
avg: 15.25 avg: 28.25
high: 4 high: 12
low: 24 low: 69
std. dev.: 8.302 std. dev.: 27.244

 

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December 6th, 2013 at 3:03 PM
(Reply to #19) #37
Lorne
Joined: 07/30/2009
MGoPoints: 25
Thanks! just as I thought...

Thanks! just as I thought... when you run SPI numbers it actually could have been worse 3 of the 8 other groups and just as bad in 1 leaving only three possible draws that would have been better for us. with some absolutely disastrous possibilities in B&D. I really appreciate you doing this!

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December 6th, 2013 at 3:17 PM
(Reply to #26) #38
mgobaran
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Joined: 09/12/2012
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To be honest, I didn't know

To be honest, I didn't know the SPI rankings even existed. And I didn't want to update my post because I would have had to change too much. And I am at work, so I feel guilty enough for wasting as much time as I already have. lol.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:36 PM
#39
wolverine1987
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Joined: 07/07/2008
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Our chances are nil.

I can't see a scenario that gets us out of this group, other than a France style meltdown from Portugal. Even beating Ghana is sketchy.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:42 PM
(Reply to #12) #40
Lorne
Joined: 07/30/2009
MGoPoints: 25
While I can certainly dream

While I can certainly dream up a disatourous showing for us in this group... I can also absolutely see us moving on. While Ghana has been a thorn in the past two WCs those games could have easily gone our way. Portugal barely made it into this WC and i believe we are actually on par with them. We beat them in 2002 WC. While the draw is difficult I think our travel is actually more of an issue then the teams we drew.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:48 PM
#41
UMQuadz05
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Joined: 04/03/2009
MGoPoints: 3472
had to happen

The USA was always going to be in a group of death, because they MAKE it the Group of Death.  All the seeded teams looked at Pot C and said "I hope we don't get the Yanks". 

To advance, we have to beat Ghana, tie Portugal, and then wait for them to melt down, I guess.

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December 6th, 2013 at 7:40 PM
(Reply to #17) #42
alum96
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Joined: 04/28/2012
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^This. Not always, but most

^This.

Not always, but most of the time the US is going to be one of the better pot C teams so by definition most (not all) of the years they will be in a tough group.  2010 was an exception as England was...well England, and a weak Algeria (Pot 3) and Pot 4 team was bad.   Still the U.S. was struggling to advance.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:50 PM
#43
bo_lives
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Joined: 04/10/2011
MGoPoints: 4290
Jokes on you, rest of the world...

because America still doesn't care about soccer!

Okay maybe some people do. And for them, this admittedly sucks. Though if the US actually made it out of this group it'd be pretty sweet indeed.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:55 PM
(Reply to #18) #44
Lorne
Joined: 07/30/2009
MGoPoints: 25
But that's the thing... for

But that's the thing... for those that actually care about soccer this doesn't actually suck all that bad. Things could have been much much worse.

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December 6th, 2013 at 3:41 PM
(Reply to #22) #45
bo_lives
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Joined: 04/10/2011
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well, to some extent

I mean if the US goes 1-1-1 in group play and doesn't advance, people will be complaining about the draw, no doubt. And the complaints will be pretty legitimate.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:55 PM
#46
MaizeAndBlueWahoo
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Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 32944
On the plus side, if we do

On the plus side, if we do manage to advance, there's nothing scary about anyone in Group H.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:56 PM
(Reply to #21) #47
Lorne
Joined: 07/30/2009
MGoPoints: 25
Exactly... runner up in G

Exactly... runner up in G  could possibly get us set up nice for a magical run in the round of 16

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December 6th, 2013 at 3:06 PM
(Reply to #24) #48
Yeoman
Joined: 06/08/2011
MGoPoints: 13242
The Germans seem happy with the draw.

Missed the nightmare scenario of a group with Italy or the Dutch; probably have relatively easy draws in the first two knockout matches (Belgium or S. Korea, then maybe France or Switzerland or Nigeria); have the fun of Loew v. Klinsmann and Boateng v. Boateng along the way.

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:13 PM
(Reply to #21) #49
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
Not sure about that - Belgium

Not sure about that - Belgium has an excellent team (maybe its best ever) and is really on a roll at the moment.

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December 6th, 2013 at 2:59 PM
#50
MGoKalamazoo
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Joined: 01/13/2010
MGoPoints: 5886
(No subject)

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:37 PM
(Reply to #33) #51
ken725
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Joined: 10/26/2008
MGoPoints: 27659
I wish I were a bigger soccer

I wish I were a bigger soccer fan back then. I wish I could have seen McBride play for Fulham back then.

I had no idea Frankie Hejduk was national team caliber back then.

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:42 PM
(Reply to #33) #52
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 16385
It helps that it's at USA's homefield

Host nations always fare well in WC. I believe they have never been eliminated at group stage.

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:07 PM
#53
meddler
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Joined: 09/08/2010
MGoPoints: 1352
Spencer Hall, Ladies and

Spencer Hall, Ladies and Gentlemen:

http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2013/12/6/5182388/united-states-2014-world-cup-ante-up

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:27 PM
(Reply to #34) #54
mgobaran
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Joined: 09/12/2012
MGoPoints: 18042
I know. I just read that

I know. I just read that shit. Got me all pumped. And made me laugh. Perfect article.

We probably won't beat Ghana because that's not something we seem to do, but whatever. You're our "spouse-fight over whether you put peanut butter in the fridge or not," Ghana, and like so many other battles we'll keep up the argument no matter how doomed it might be.

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:24 PM
(Reply to #39) #55
Fields
Fields's picture
Joined: 01/15/2013
MGoPoints: 67
This.

Ghana.  It always ends with Ghana.

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:11 PM
#56
Mr. Yost
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Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: -9898289
If USA somehow wins their group...

And wins the Round of 16 game.

I will be there watching USA play in Rio on the 4th of July.

#GoAMURICA!

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:25 PM
#57
Flying Dutchman
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Joined: 09/16/2009
MGoPoints: 4381
Hup Holland! ORANJE!

Hup Holland!

ORANJE!

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:08 PM
(Reply to #38) #58
Hemlock Philosopher
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Joined: 02/12/2009
MGoPoints: 5017
Ja ja ja! 

Ja ja ja! 

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December 6th, 2013 at 4:46 PM
#59
I WAS THERE
I WAS THERE's picture
Joined: 01/09/2012
MGoPoints: 2712
I don't mind soccer

I just hate when people do it around me.

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:11 PM
#60
I Have A Gnarly Face
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Joined: 10/14/2013
MGoPoints: 579
I cannot wait to watch every

I cannot wait to watch every game in the tournament.

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December 6th, 2013 at 5:32 PM
#61
hailtothevictors08
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Joined: 06/11/2009
MGoPoints: 3506
Late because I was at work...

I know some people are freaking out about the draw the US just got. Yes, it is a nasty group and probably the toughest overall group in the World Cup, but we knew it probably would be and it could have been WAY worse (If we had been drawn into B or if the mythical Brazil, Netherlands, Italy group that was mathematically possible). Also, a big reason why our group is the toughest is the US is a very good team and is far superior to many of the pool C teams. The truth of the matter is this group has one powerhouse and three teams that in normal conditions should be expected to compete for the knockout rounds, but aren't legit threats to win it all (Portugal is not Brazil, Spain, the Netherlands, Germany etc.) The amount of travel we have is awful though. 

 
Team by Team:
 
Germany: We knew the seeded team would be heavy favorites over us unless it was the Swiss or perhaps Belgium (I want no part of Uruguay in South America). I much prefer our chances to perhaps steal a draw against Germany than either Spain or Brazil. Again, we are underdogs but it could be way worse. Also, while they SHOULD advance on top of the group, the Germans cannot be happy about this group and would probably willing to switch straight up with any of the seeded teams. 
 
Ghana: This is where I think we caught the biggest break. Yes they are a solid squad that could beat us/advance, yes they are more dangerous than say Algeria, and yes I have an awful taste in my mouth from the last two World Cups, but they are not better than us straight up. On paper, especially with this game being played away from Africa, we are better. Remember, this was the really scary pool. We could have ended up with a South American team playing with the home-continent advantage or we could have doubled up on European teams if we had gotten a South American seeded team. Again, we got a break here.
 
Portugal: Yes, they have Christian Rolando. Yes, he may win the Ballon d'Or. Yes, he is one of the two best players on the planet. They are still are not world class. They didn't put away a very pedestrian Sweden in their play-in until the very end.  In fact, they seem to about equal to us, maybe slightly better but it is close. We knew that it was probable that we would have at least one more very good team in the group other than the seeded team and I am just happy that team is not the Netherlands.
 
In reality, we knew that we would probably have a really nasty drawn and I think it fell somewhere in the middle between impossible and very lucky. The thing about being the best in an area of the world without soccer greats is that we get an easier road to qualification but you are more likely to get a rough group if you can't get yourself seeded. It is a group in which I think we can advance. I still think had we been switched with the pool C team in Groups B (Spain, Chile, Netherlands) and maybe D (Uruguay, Italy, England) we would be way worse off. Yes, soccer odds are weird, but ESPN's SPI (which I have found to be decent) puts us right around 40% to advance (1% behind Portugal, ahead of Ghana) and that sounds just about right to me.
 
This is the World Cup and the field is stacked everywhere, if you want to advance, you have to be able to win games against good teams. This group is really going to come down to who can maybe steal a point (or even somehow a win of Germany) and/or who can win what is essential a three team group for one spot between the US, Ghana, and Portugal. Klinsmann and the boys have a tough road but they have a pretty fair shot. I believe in them.
 
Go Nats!
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December 6th, 2013 at 6:34 PM
(Reply to #57) #62
Yeoman
Joined: 06/08/2011
MGoPoints: 13242
I've been reading the German

I've been reading the German press this afternoon--they're quite content with the draw and there's no way in hell they'd be willing to trade with Spain (Chile/Netherlands) or Uruguay (Italy/England), especially since this way they get group H in the round of 16 and the weaker half of the draw for the quarterfinals.

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December 6th, 2013 at 6:20 PM
#63
CR7
CR7's picture
Joined: 10/21/2012
MGoPoints: 1585
I'm expecting them to

I'm expecting them to progress. Should be beating Ghana. Gotta get over the Ghanian hump sooner or later and Portugal are nothing to write home about. Outside of Ronnie (and maybe Nani, depends) they've got nothing. Germany will be a toughie, no question. If they get anything out of that game, I'll be happy.

Speaking of Portugal, though, where have you gotten your rankings from? I was skimming earlier today and saw that Portugal were 16th and we were 17th, which seems about right. A team that needed a play-off to qualify isn't going to be ranked 5th in the world.

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December 9th, 2013 at 8:59 AM
(Reply to #60) #64
mgobaran
mgobaran's picture
Joined: 09/12/2012
MGoPoints: 18042
FIFA Rankings

FIFA: http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/

The SPI has us at 17 & Portugal at 16 FWIW. I have updated tables above.
 

But you will never see this because it is Monday and that post was Friday.

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December 6th, 2013 at 7:21 PM
#65
alum96
alum96's picture
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 63601
South Korea lucked out, USA

South Korea lucked out, USA did not.  That said USA got a very easy draw in 2010 so it is what it is.

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December 6th, 2013 at 8:58 PM
#66
smwilliams
smwilliams's picture
Joined: 08/20/2010
MGoPoints: 6160
Thank You

Glad to see the folks here are more analytical as opposed to the media jumping on the "GROUP O' DEATH" bandwagon.

Group B with Spain, Netherlands, and Chile (tournament is in South America, people).

Group D with Uruguay, Italy, and England is also crazy hard.

Frankly, getting three against Ghana is almost a must.

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December 6th, 2013 at 9:18 PM
(Reply to #66) #67
CR7
CR7's picture
Joined: 10/21/2012
MGoPoints: 1585
Chile are a real dark horse,

Chile are a real dark horse, for me. I was extremely impressed with them in 2010 with Marcelo Bielsa. Their high tempo, pressing style is incredibly entertaining and they were involved in 2 of the more saviory matches in that tournament, against Brasil and Spain. I read Zonal Marking in tandem with the WC that year and he put out some great articles on them. Bielsa is no longer managing them but Sampaoli plays with similar tactics, from what I understand.

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