Is this Real Life:
So here is the way it played out. And some bad math to draw sketchy conclusions from.
|
GROUP A
|
RANK | GROUP B | RANK |
| BRAZIL | 10 | SPAIN | 1 |
| CROATIA | 16 | NETHERLANDS | 9 |
| MEXICO | 20 | CHILE | 15 |
| CAMEROON | 51 | AUSTRALIA | 59 |
|
avg:
|
24.25 |
avg:
|
21 |
| high: | 10 | high: | 1 |
| low: | 51 | low: | 59 |
| std. dev.: | 18.301 | std. dev.: | 25.974 |
| GROUP C | RANK | GROUP D | RANK |
| COLOMBIA | 4 | URUGUAY | 6 |
| GREECE | 12 | COSTA RICA | 31 |
| COTE d'IVORIE | 17 | ENGLAND | 13 |
| JAPAN | 48 | ITALY | 7 |
|
avg:
|
20.25 |
avg:
|
14.25 |
| high: | 4 | high: | 6 |
| low: | 48 | low: | 31 |
| std. dev.: | 19.259 | std. dev.: | 11.587 |
|
GROUP E
|
RANK | GROUP F | RANK |
| SWITZERLAND | 8 | ARGENTINA | 3 |
| ECUADOR | 23 | BOSNIA-HERZ. | 21 |
|
FRANCE
|
19 | IRAN | 45 |
| HONDURAS | 41 | NIGERIA | 36 |
|
avg:
|
22.75 |
avg:
|
26.25 |
| high: | 8 | high: | 3 |
| low: | 41 | low: | 45 |
| std. dev.: | 13.720 | std. dev.: | 18.392 |
| GROUP G | RANK | GROUP H | RANK |
| GERMANY | 2 | BELGIUM | 11 |
| PORTUGAL | 5 | ALGERIA | 26 |
| CHANA | 24 | RUSSIA | 22 |
| USA | 14 | S. KOREA | 54 |
|
avg:
|
11.25 |
avg:
|
28.25 |
| high: | 2 | high: | 11 |
| low: | 24 | low: | 54 |
| std. dev.: | 9.912 | std. dev.: | 18.301 |
Group G, more like Group of Greath, amirite?
Other Possible Scenarios:
But things could have been even worse. And they could have been so much better. Here is a chart with USA taking the place of everyone from their pot.
| GROUP A | RANK | GROUP B | RANK |
| BRAZIL | 10 | SPAIN | 1 |
| CROATIA | 16 | NETHERLANDS | 9 |
| USA | 14 | CHILE | 15 |
| CAMEROON | 51 | USA | 14 |
|
avg:
|
22.75 |
avg:
|
9.75 |
| high: | 10 | high: | 1 |
| low: | 51 | low: | 15 |
| std. dev.: | 18.998 | std. dev.: | 6.397 |
| GROUP C | RANK | GROUP D | RANK |
| COLOMBIA | 4 | URUGUAY | 6 |
| GREECE | 12 | USA | 14 |
| COTE d'IVORIE | 17 | ENGLAND | 13 |
| USA | 14 | ITALY | 7 |
|
avg:
|
11.75 |
avg:
|
10 |
| high: | 4 | high: | 6 |
| low: | 17 | low: | 14 |
| std. dev.: | 5.560 | std. dev.: | 4.082 |
|
GROUP E
|
RANK | GROUP F | RANK |
| SWITZERLAND | 8 | ARGENTINA | 3 |
| ECUADOR | 23 | BOSNIA-HERZ. | 21 |
|
FRANCE
|
19 | USA | 14 |
| USA | 14 | NIGERIA | 36 |
|
avg:
|
16 |
avg:
|
18.5 |
| high: | 8 | high: | 3 |
| low: | 23 | low: | 36 |
| std. dev.: | 6.481 | std. dev.: | 13.820 |
| GROUP G | RANK | GROUP H | RANK |
| GERMANY | 2 | BELGIUM | 11 |
| PORTUGAL | 5 | ALGERIA | 26 |
| CHANA | 24 | RUSSIA | 22 |
| USA | 14 | USA | 14 |
|
avg:
|
11.25 |
avg:
|
18.25 |
| high: | 2 | high: | 11 |
| low: | 24 | low: | 26 |
| std. dev.: | 9.912 | std. dev.: | 6.946 |
My analysis on the averages...
So the USA got screwed, but the are 2 scenarios in which things could have got a whole lot tougher. If we landed in Group B, the average FIFA ranking would have been south of the TOP 10! Group D, is exactly 10, and we would have been the worst team in that group (according to FIFA). The only other group close to Group G, is Group C, which is half a ranking higher in difficulty.
My analysis on the standard deviations...
I am treating this as, the lower the standard deviation the more competitve the games in that group would be. Idk if competition would be better or worse, based on other teams being able to keep you in it based on two teams drawing. I am treating it as a worse option to have a low standard deviation based on the assumption it would be harder to get three points in that case.
Currently our group is at 9.912. The most competitve would have been if we landed in that dreaded group D. yikes. 2nd worse would be group C. In which case C may be a little easier in terms of competition, but you're trading that in for some close games. If we landed in group B, E, or H, the standard deviations would have been relatively the same, with varying degrees of strength of schedule.
Dog Gif:
What could have been:
Believe it or not, the numbers say Group A, with Brazil at home would have been by far the easiest track. In my opinion, I fell landing in group E or H would have been more Ideal.
Now do I think we are the 14th best in the world? No. I believe we could beat several teams ranked above us. FIFA rankings can kiss my ass!
TL;DR section:
USA is in the Group of Death. We ended up in the 3rd or 4th hardest group possible, as long as every other team stayed where they were drawn. The best 3 groups we could have gone to are Group A, Group E or Group H.
Group F looks like it has a favorable average, but it has the highest standard deviation. Our chances of winning that group aren't as strong as A, E, or H, but the chances of moving on are better then where we are currently.
[edit]: Thanks for being patient through the reformatting, and editing process. I threw this together real quick and don't know what I am doing.
