OT: Who are your top MLB rookies this year?
My fantasy baseball league just had our draft over the weekend, and we're just a couple weeks away from Opening Day, so I'm starting to get into baseball mode. So, I want to know who you think are 10 rookies who have a good shot at contributing at a high level this season. This is partly just a fun thing, and partly because I don't know much about rookies outside of the Tigers' or Reds' organizations. The only condition I'll set is that, if they aren't already on the ML roster, they must be projected to be in the Majors by the All-Star break. And they must have rookie status, of course (for a definition of that, click here). Here's my list:
1. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Jesus Montero, C, Seattle Mariners
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Addison Reed, RP, Chicago White Sox
5. Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds
6. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
7. Mike Trout, OF, LA Angels
8. Andy Oliver, SP, Detroit Tigers
9. Yonder Alonso, 1B, San Diego Padres
10. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics
Those last few are stretches, since I really don't know much about 10 rookies. I'm saying Oliver based on the assumption that he gets the #5 spot in the Tigers' rotation, since he's had a pretty good Spring. Alonso is based solely on the fact that he'll be starting for San Diego and he's supposed to be a good hitter. And Cespedes is based solely on the hype surrounding him (and the fact that I picked him up with my last draft pick, so I'm hoping that he turns into a star and makes me look good).
March 21st, 2012 at 10:09 AM ^
Andy Oliver can be very good for the Tigers this year if he can just find the strike zone consistently. The walks he gave up last year were very hard to watch.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:45 AM ^
Drew Smyly would like a word with you
March 21st, 2012 at 10:15 AM ^
I like Cozart from the Reds. I think he'll look good taking over for Jeter at short in 3 or 4 years when the Yankees steal him from Cincy!
Edit: I love baseball but I have to admit I thought this thread was about middle linebackers when I first clicked. I'm glad baseball's regular season is right around the corner.
Just picked him up in my league. Partly because we share the same last name and partly because you are correct sir!
March 21st, 2012 at 10:13 AM ^
I'll be curious to see how Jesus Montero does in Safeco Field - much different hitting environment than Yankee Stadium. I still think he'll be in the talk for top 5 rookies, but maybe not as much as he would have been with the Yankees.
Agree about Matt Moore. The kid was phenomenal last season in the limited action we saw of him.
I've also heard a lot of talk about Bryce Harper. He'll start the season in AAA but I've heard rumblings that he could emerge in the MLB lineup before the seaon is over. I expect big things from him whenever he makes the jump.
March 21st, 2012 at 12:42 PM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 10:13 AM ^
Cespedes ought to be in your top 5, since I think he's part of the plan from day 1.
Is Yu Darvish classified as a rookie? Lot's of hype there too.
March 21st, 2012 at 10:32 AM ^
I didn't rank him as high since he has a lot of things to adjust to, and the common theme I've been hearing is that this year might be a struggle for him. If he was tearing it up in spring ball I'd be a lot more willing to rank him higher (and believe me, I know not to put too much weight on Spring Training), but he has struggled so far. Still, he's obviously got the potential to be a monster.
And good point about Darvish, I had forgotten about him. I don't know if there are any exceptions with rookie status for international players who have played professionally, but he's definitely not thrown 40 innings in the MLB. He's definitely someone worth keeping an eye on.
March 21st, 2012 at 10:15 AM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 10:57 AM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 11:08 AM ^
I think they were going to ease him into the position, Miguel Olivo is the only other option there to catch.
March 21st, 2012 at 12:39 PM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 10:18 AM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 10:23 AM ^
I really like Royce Jenkins-Stone coming in as MLB.
March 21st, 2012 at 10:25 AM ^
You beat me to it ... when I saw "MLB" the first thing that occurred to me is "Middle Linebacker." Shows how much my brain is awash in football at all times. :-)
March 21st, 2012 at 10:30 AM ^
In no particular order:
Tyler Pastornicky -- Atl ss
Simmons -- Atl ss
Lombardozzi - Was
Matt Harvey -- Mets (midseason)
LaHair -- Cubs
Brach - SD
Skaggs - Ariz
Bauer - Ariz
Hultzen - Seattle
Aoki - Milwaukee
Mesoraco - Cincy catcher
Arenado -- Rockies
Delgado - Atl
Teheren - Atl
Alonso - SD
Wieland - SD
Erlin - SD
AND last but certainly not least Bryce Harper - Washington (by July at the latest)
March 21st, 2012 at 10:31 AM ^
some under the radar guys who are recieving less hype like Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs who could both find themselves in the Arizona rotation by mid-season. Anthony Rizzo who was traded to the Cubs and should be the opening day first basemen for them, he struggled in the minimal time he had with the Padres but he has potential to be a very good all-around player. Ryan Lavarnway catcher for the Redsox showed good power and could eventually take over the everyday catching gig in beantown
March 21st, 2012 at 10:39 AM ^
Wil Myers C/OF KC BKFinest it.
March 21st, 2012 at 10:54 AM ^
In two years
March 21st, 2012 at 10:54 AM ^
Did anyone else open this thinking that he was talking about football and Middle Linebackers?
March 21st, 2012 at 11:04 AM ^
Question for Tigers fans: Given Jacob Turner's recent dead arm and what looks like some time in Toledo, would you go back a month or 2 ago and trade him and Castellanos for Gio Gonzalez straight up which was proposed?
Gio would fit in the rotation like a glove and he's the left hander the Tigers are looking for, but was the cost of our top 2 prospects too high? I'm of the frame of mind that you always trade prospects for proven big league players, so I might have pulled the trigger on that deal.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^
I wouldn't have made the trade, and I maintain that position even considering Turner's arm problems. Turner and Castellanos are undeniably our top 2 minor leaguers, and it doesn't make sense to me to trade your top 2 prospects for someone who's not a stud big leaguer. Sure, Gonzalez is a decent southpaw, but his high walk rate really scares me. He's never had a season at any professional level with a BB/9 rate under 4.00. It has been trending downward the past few years, but that's a big drawback to me, especially considering Detroit's less-than-stellar infield. To me, the Tigers are just as well off waiting for Smyly or Oliver to develop into the left-handed starter they need. Plus, the top 4 spots in our rotation are solid enough that it's not necessary to make that kind of move for a 5th starter.
Also, I think Turner's dead arm thing is a blessing in disguise. I have maintained since last season that this year (at least the first half) would be a bad time to move Turner to the Majors. He still needs time to develop and this injury should prevent the Tigers from moving him too quickly to the Show.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:24 AM ^
You're right about Turner's injury, the Tigers don't need him just yet and I don't want him rushed to the Bigs ala Porcello, but are we sure that Oliver is ever going to develop into a starting pitcher? He's shown some promise this spring with his control but until he does it with consistency i'm not buying it, he looks like a decent bullpen guy with his K/9 rate but the walks are scary. Smyly is a bottom of the rotation pitcher, solid but nothing to really write home about, low ceiling
I just thought this would be a good question to bring up with the Tigers still deciding who's going to fill the 5th starter spot. Recently on MLBTR they talked how the Tigers are interested in John Lannan from Washington if the in house options don't pan out. Lannan is basically the left handed Brad Penny, just an innings eater.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:41 AM ^
It's definitely a good question to discuss, and I do think Gonzalez would be a good fit in the 3 or 4 spot in our rotation, but I don't think that's worth our top 2 prospects.
And the question about Oliver is the million dollar question right now. At first, it seemed like he struggled in the majors because the Tigers moved him too quickly, but now it's beginning to look like he just doesn't have what it takes to be a big-league starter. I have been encouraged by his performance this spring, but as you say, he's got to show that he can maintain this kind of control (which, although good for him, is still at 3 BB/9) over long periods of time. Also, he hasn't started a game yet. So maybe he is destined for a long relief role. I don't know.
Also, just curious, but why do you think Smyly is a low ceiling, bottom of the rotation pitcher? I'm not arguing it, I'm just curious to see your reasoning on that.
I hadn't heard anything about Lannan before now, but that's intriguing. Looks like he could throw 200 innings and keep the ball in the park. I wouldn't be disappointed at all if they made that move, depending on who they give up in return.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:43 AM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 11:53 AM ^
I disagree, assuming the Tigers wouldn't over-value him and give up too much to get him (basically, as long as they didn't give up Turner or Castellanos, I'd be fine with it). Think about it, what do you want out of a #5 starter? Someone who will eat up innings (check; he's averaged about 188 IP over the last 4 years), keep your team in the game in most starts (check; his FIP and xFIP are right in line with what you would want in a #5 starter: he's been consistently in the mid-4's for the past 4 years), and can add depth to your bullpen for the playoffs (check; he's consistently averaged a GB rate over 50% for the past 4 years, and his HR rate isn't that bad, and that would only be aided by Comerica). Plus, he's a southpaw.
For the right price, he'd be a perfect fit in the #5 slot.
Smyly just doesn't have the overpowering type of pitches to be a top 3 rotation kind of guy. He pitches to contact, which is a good thing, but he only has a low 90's FB, along with an average curve/changeup. Think of him as a poor man's Doug Fister without the ridiculous command. Like I said he's solid, but he's a 4th/5th starter at best.
Speaking of prospects, Oliver on the mound starting this afternoon if you want to tune into FSN.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^
With the way Oliver and Smyly are throwing....not a chance. Then again, I was never a fan of that deal from the start so consider my opinion slightly jaded. Gio is a good pitcher but he benefits from a good ballpark and bad division.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^
Gio doesn't have Cy-Young/MVP written all over him, so the cost was a bit too steep.
I'm not ready to give up on Turner, and Costellanos still is promising.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:40 AM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 12:53 PM ^
There is no way the Angels or Rays would trade their aces for our 2 top prospects, a more likely trade would be Turner/Castellanos for a James Shields type. That's a little more reasonable from the opposing teams perspective.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:41 AM ^
Nope. Tigers' system is extremely top heavy with these two and then a significant gap down the rest of the chain. I know pitching prospects often go down with injuries but Castellanos is looked at very highly- even the normally snarky Keith Law tweeted a few days ago that he thought Castellanos would be a future All Star 3B. I'm fine with keeping these guys and then re-evaluating what is needed as the season unfolds
Gio Gonzalez is a decent pitcher, but he's not worth two of the top 50 ish prospects in the game. In fact, I'll go as far to say that I like Castellanos more than Turner, even.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:14 AM ^
Unfortunately, I think he lost his rookie elidgability last year but watch out for Anthony Bass of the SD Padres. He's one of my friends so homerism applies here...but check out his stats from 2011. Arguably the best season for a rookie pitcher that SD has ever had. Throws high 90s with a low 80s change, mid 80s slider, and high 80s cutter.
If he wins the #5 spot in the rotation he could have a very, very nice season in a ballpark that favors pitching.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:25 AM ^
Oops, I totally misread your post. You obviously weren't referring to Mike Trout at all. Forget what I said.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:26 AM ^
No problem!
March 21st, 2012 at 11:29 AM ^
2. Trevor Bauer
3. Andrelton Simmons
4. Anthony Rizzo
March 21st, 2012 at 11:40 AM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 11:46 AM ^
Wow, the D-Backs are stacked with high-level minor league starters. Holy crap. Between Bauer, Skaggs, and Parker, they're loaded.
in the Cahill trade, but yeah...
March 21st, 2012 at 11:36 AM ^
& Royce Jenkins Stone
They'll be the best MLB's for Michigan
March 21st, 2012 at 11:48 AM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 11:52 AM ^
March 21st, 2012 at 11:57 AM ^
I have Moore on my fantasy keeper team, so that's all I care about. I have two other young players on the team as well - Dee Gordon, who may have played too much for the Dodgers last year to count as a rookie, and Jacob Turner who may or may not pan out.
Ok, off topic in relation to this thread, but I want some trade advice. Would you accept or decline this trade:
Give:
Troy Tulowitzki
Gio Gonzalez
For:
Matt Moore
Elvis Andrus
I'm leaning toward declining it. I really like Matt Moore and I think he's a shoo-in for AL ROY if he stays healthy. But shortstop is a shallow position and Andrus is a big dropoff compared to Tulo. Thoughts?
I make that deal. Tulo is the best shortstop in the NL; Moore has essentially one game, albeit very good, at the major league level.