OT: U.S. Opponent for 2nd Round Scenarios
USA!! With a win over Algeria today, the U.S. is through to the 2nd round, and won their pool for the first time since 1930 (that's right, kids, the Hoover Administration). Our 2nd round opponent for Saturday's 2:30pm matchup will be the 2nd place team in Group D, which will depend on the outcome of this afternoon's games. IF:
GER > GHA, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia (unless Serbia scores 3 more goals than Germany).
GER > GHA, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays either Ghana or Serbia, depending on the goal differential of the GER/GHA game.
GER > GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Ghana (unless the amount GHA loses by and the amount AUS wins by total 5 goals or more).
GER = GHA, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Ghana.
GER = GHA, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays Germany (unless Serbia scores 3 more goals than Germany).
GER = GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Germany (unless the amount Australia wins by totals 7 goals or more).
GHA > GER, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia.
GHA > GER, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia.
GHA > GER, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Australia.
Assuming all teams are equal, the U.S. has roughly a 38.9% chance of playing Serbia, a 27.8% chance of playing Ghana, a 22.2% chance of playing Germany and an 11.1% chance of playing Australia (barring huge goal differential swings this afternoon).
A U.S. win in the 2nd round would mean facing the winner of Uraguay and Mexico South Korea for the right to the Semifinals, a truly wonderful draw for Team USA.
Don't Tread On Us!!!
Uruguay is playing South Africa, not Mexico.
Nope. South Korea.
Honest mistake above. Sorry.
You beat me, but I was more factually correct.
South Africa is done, i think you meant South Korea.
The US would get the winner of Uruguay and South Korea, not Mexico.
It's winner of Uruguay and South Korea, not Mexico. Mexico gets a rematch of their 2006 round of 16 loss to Argentina, followed by the winner of England/winner of D. BRUTAL path to the semis for Mexico.
Our round of 16 opponent is almost certainly going to be better than the quarterfinal opponent should the US advance.
Uruguay is a solid team. They have a great shot to reach the semis or even the finals. I think they're as good or better than all the teams in Group D except for Germany.
I think the U.S. can beat all of those teams, but I would be really worried about Germany and Klose against our center backs. I'd rather see Ghana or Australia, but Australia isn't going to happen. Ghana without Essien is beatable, and did not look all that strong against Australia.
I think given those scenarios that it is unlikely that we end up playing Germany. And thank God for that.
Serbia has six guys playing on yellow cards. Depending on how chippy their match gets (or how much of a lunatic the ref is), they could have quite a few guys suspended for the next match should they move on.
Bookings reset after the group stage
Right, but bookings today to any of those six mean they're suspended for the next match. Which could well be against the US.
but if a player receives his second yellow card in the third group match, he is suspended for the the first game of the second round.
Germany and Serbia both winning is far from unlikely
My brain hurts reading that.
Nate Silver had second place in Group D broken down like this:
50% Serbia
29% Ghana
15% Germany
which would leave 6% for Australia. (I think he truncated rather than rounded, because the odds in the table that he's been updating don't quite match the knockout round graphic.)
Yes, these probabilities are much better than copping out by saying "all teams are equal."
...was head-to-head. If GER > GHA, SER > AUS, then both Serbia and Germany are 2-1-0=6 pts, but Serbia beat Germany head-to-head, which means SER would be first and GER would be 2nd, and the U.S would get Germany. If GER > GHA, SER = AUS, then Germany is first with 6 points, and both GHA and SER are 1-1-1=4 pts, but Ghana would advance (and play the US) because they beat Serbia head-to-head (regardless of goal differential). Am I wrong about this?
EDIT: nevermind. That comes after goal differential. My bad.
I am hoping for Ghana (Australia would be awesome but that's not likely). I don't think we do well against Eastern Europeans teams. But I think Serbia is more liekly.
It must be cold out there!!!! This just made my work day more tolerable. Thank you!
fake, real, real.
but all real good.
Idk if i want to face Ghana theyre a good team. The ideal situation would be for ghana to win and australia to win too. that way we face a beatable australia team.
a German win would mean they win the group and we are guaranteed to not face them. There may be better outcomes for us, but this is the most likely one that lets us avoid das Germans.
Even if these are slightly off (which I gather from reading the comments), I was clueless to most of this information, and I assume a whole lot of the mgoblog readers are in the same boat. So thanks a lot for taking the time to do this.
Any thoughts on how we will do moving forward? Not a huge soccer fan, so just curious what our expectations are.
Germany wins 3-1
Serbia wins 2-1
We get Serbia!
Here's a link to see how the bracket is set up. Well set for us to make a run to the semis where likely opponents would be Brazil or Portugal or Netherlands.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/bracket?cc=5901&ver=us
A Germany win or a Serbia win.
this scenario is looking likely:
GER > GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Ghana (unless the amount GHA loses by and the amount AUS wins by total 5 goals or more).
Can Aus score and Germany both score another goal?
If not it looks like we have Ghana. Who do people prefer between Ghana and Serbia?
Ghana is definitely the tougher team.
So we want Serbia to get one more goal and for Germany to win. Not sure how the goal differential would shake out though.
Wow... Serbia almost tied it up but it was offsides.