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OT: U.S. Opponent for 2nd Round Scenarios

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June 23rd, 2010 at 12:49 PM
#1
Brady2Terrell
Brady2Terrell's picture
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 241
OT: U.S. Opponent for 2nd Round Scenarios

USA!!  With a win over Algeria today, the U.S. is through to the 2nd round, and won their pool for the first time since 1930 (that's right, kids, the Hoover Administration).  Our 2nd round opponent for Saturday's 2:30pm matchup will be the 2nd place team in Group D, which will depend on the outcome of this afternoon's games.  IF:

GER > GHA, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia (unless Serbia scores 3 more goals than Germany).

GER > GHA, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays either Ghana or Serbia, depending on the goal differential of the GER/GHA game.

GER > GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Ghana (unless the amount GHA loses by and the amount AUS wins by total 5 goals or more).

GER = GHA, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Ghana.

GER = GHA, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays Germany (unless Serbia scores 3 more goals than Germany).

GER = GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Germany (unless the amount Australia wins by totals 7 goals or more).

GHA > GER, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia.

GHA > GER, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia.

GHA > GER, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Australia.

Assuming all teams are equal, the U.S. has roughly a 38.9% chance of playing Serbia, a 27.8% chance of playing Ghana,  a 22.2% chance of playing Germany and an 11.1% chance of playing Australia (barring huge goal differential swings this afternoon).

A U.S. win in the 2nd round would mean facing the winner of Uraguay and Mexico South Korea for the right to the Semifinals, a truly wonderful draw for Team USA.

Don't Tread On Us!!!

Hail to the Victors.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 12:55 PM | Uruguay is playing South (Score:1)
redwings8831
Joined: 03/05/2009
MGoPoints: 1016

Uruguay is playing South Africa, not Mexico.

If you can't get into college go to State.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 12:56 PM | Nope. South Korea. (Score:1)
MaizeSombrero
MaizeSombrero's picture
Joined: 07/19/2008
MGoPoints: 1938

Nope. South Korea.

I'm a cucumber.  | Twitter

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:42 PM | Yeah. Screwed that up. (Score:1)
redwings8831
Joined: 03/05/2009
MGoPoints: 1016

Honest mistake above. Sorry.

If you can't get into college go to State.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 12:56 PM | You beat me, but I was more (Score:1)
Colt McBaby Jesus
Colt McBaby Jesus's picture
Joined: 01/08/2009
MGoPoints: 1200

You beat me, but I was more factually correct.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:02 PM | South Korea? (Score:1)
mrguy
Joined: 02/24/2009
MGoPoints: 10

South Africa is done, i think you meant South Korea.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 12:55 PM | The US would get the winner (Score:1)
Colt McBaby Jesus
Colt McBaby Jesus's picture
Joined: 01/08/2009
MGoPoints: 1200

The US would get the winner of Uruguay and South Korea, not Mexico.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 12:55 PM | It's winner of Uruguay and (Score:1)
Yinka Double Dare
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1905

It's winner of Uruguay and South Korea, not Mexico.  Mexico gets a rematch of their 2006 round of 16 loss to Argentina, followed by the winner of England/winner of D.  BRUTAL path to the semis for Mexico.

Our round of 16 opponent is almost certainly going to be better than the quarterfinal opponent should the US advance.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:02 PM | I disagree (Score:1)
mfan_in_ohio
Joined: 01/26/2009
MGoPoints: 1904

Uruguay is a solid team.  They have a great shot to reach the semis or even the finals.  I think they're as good or better than all the teams in Group D except for Germany.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 PM | Who do you want to see? (Score:1)
mfan_in_ohio
Joined: 01/26/2009
MGoPoints: 1904

I think the U.S. can beat all of those teams, but I would  be really worried about Germany and Klose against our center backs.  I'd rather see Ghana or Australia, but Australia isn't going to happen.  Ghana without Essien is beatable, and did not look all that strong against Australia.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:00 PM | I think given those scenarios (Score:1)
Yinka Double Dare
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1905

I think given those scenarios that it is unlikely that we end up playing Germany.  And thank God for that.

Serbia has six guys playing on yellow cards.  Depending on how chippy their match gets (or how much of a lunatic the ref is), they could have quite a few guys suspended for the next match should they move on.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:44 PM | Bookings reset after the (Score:1)
Big Boutros
Big Boutros's picture
Joined: 07/08/2008
MGoPoints: 8004

Bookings reset after the group stage

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June 23rd, 2010 at 2:38 PM | Right, but bookings today to (Score:1)
Yinka Double Dare
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1905

Right, but bookings today to any of those six mean they're suspended for the next match.  Which could well be against the US.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 2:39 PM | yes (Score:1)
dbalrod
dbalrod's picture
Joined: 02/22/2009
MGoPoints: 78

but if a player receives his second yellow card in the third group match, he is suspended for the the first game of the second round.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 2:54 PM | Germany and Serbia both (Score:1)
BoiseBlue
BoiseBlue's picture
Joined: 10/22/2009
MGoPoints: 315

Germany and Serbia both winning is far from unlikely

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June 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 PM | My brain hurts reading that. (Score:1)
TG7782
Joined: 11/12/2009
MGoPoints: 834

My brain hurts reading that.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:01 PM | as of yesterday (Score:1)
zlionsfan
zlionsfan's picture
Joined: 10/31/2008
MGoPoints: 624

Nate Silver had second place in Group D broken down like this:

50% Serbia
29% Ghana
15% Germany

which would leave 6% for Australia. (I think he truncated rather than rounded, because the odds in the table that he's been updating don't quite match the knockout round graphic.)

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:19 PM | Yes, these probabilities are (Score:1)
David
Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 143

Yes, these probabilities are much better than copping out by saying "all teams are equal."

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:07 PM | I thought first tiebreaker... (Score:1)
AKWolverine
Joined: 10/02/2009
MGoPoints: 61

...was head-to-head.  If GER > GHA, SER > AUS, then both Serbia and Germany are 2-1-0=6 pts, but Serbia beat Germany head-to-head, which means SER would be first and GER would be 2nd, and the U.S would get Germany. If GER > GHA, SER = AUS, then Germany is first with 6 points, and both GHA and SER are 1-1-1=4 pts, but Ghana would advance (and play the US) because they beat Serbia head-to-head (regardless of goal differential).  Am I wrong about this?

 

EDIT: nevermind.  That comes after goal differential.  My bad.

"Go sell some medicine, bitches!"

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:07 PM | second round opponent (Score:1)
mrguy
Joined: 02/24/2009
MGoPoints: 10

I am hoping for Ghana (Australia would be awesome but that's not likely). I don't think we do well against Eastern Europeans teams. But I think Serbia is more liekly.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:13 PM | We are all Germany fans for the rest of the day! (Score:1)
NomadicBlue
NomadicBlue's picture
Joined: 05/07/2010
MGoPoints: 3694

Journal Entry - Day 782 of living amongst inbreds - Actually heard this today, "I don't see what the big deal is.  All he was doin' was protectin' the players. What's wrong with that?" 

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:16 PM | Wow (Score:1)
palazzola123
palazzola123's picture
Joined: 01/20/2010
MGoPoints: 1857

It must be cold out there!!!!  This just made my work day more tolerable.  Thank you!

“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft; on the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them.  Keep believing.” Bo

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:29 PM | and the results are in... (Score:1)
pee on freep
pee on freep's picture
Joined: 02/26/2010
MGoPoints: -1789

fake, real, real.

but all real good.

“My advice to defensive players:Take the shortest route to the ball and arrive in a bad humor.” Bowden Wyatt

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:38 PM | Idk if i want to face Ghana (Score:1)
Adrian
Adrian's picture
Joined: 08/12/2009
MGoPoints: 1788

Idk if i want to face Ghana theyre a good team. The ideal situation would be for ghana to win and australia to win too. that way we face a beatable australia team.

Hail Yes

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June 23rd, 2010 at 3:12 PM | yes, but (Score:1)
NomadicBlue
NomadicBlue's picture
Joined: 05/07/2010
MGoPoints: 3694

a German win would mean they win the group and we are guaranteed to not face them.  There may be better outcomes for us, but this is the most likely one that lets us avoid das Germans. 

Journal Entry - Day 782 of living amongst inbreds - Actually heard this today, "I don't see what the big deal is.  All he was doin' was protectin' the players. What's wrong with that?" 

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:17 PM | Even if these are slightly (Score:1)
mgopat
mgopat's picture
Joined: 04/23/2009
MGoPoints: 116

Even if these are slightly off (which I gather from reading the comments), I was clueless to most of this information, and I assume a whole lot of the mgoblog readers are in the same boat. So thanks a lot for taking the time to do this.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:20 PM | To all you footballers out there... (Score:1)
palazzola123
palazzola123's picture
Joined: 01/20/2010
MGoPoints: 1857

Any thoughts on how we will do moving forward?  Not a huge soccer fan, so just curious what our expectations are.

“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft; on the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them.  Keep believing.” Bo

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:33 PM | Germany wins 3-1 Serbia (Score:1)
NomadicBlue
NomadicBlue's picture
Joined: 05/07/2010
MGoPoints: 3694

Germany wins 3-1

Serbia wins 2-1

We get Serbia!

Here's a link to see how the bracket is set up.  Well set for us to make a run to the semis where likely opponents would be Brazil or Portugal or Netherlands. 

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/bracket?cc=5901&ver=us

Journal Entry - Day 782 of living amongst inbreds - Actually heard this today, "I don't see what the big deal is.  All he was doin' was protectin' the players. What's wrong with that?" 

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June 23rd, 2010 at 1:31 PM | I'd be quite happy with either (Score:1)
stankoniaks
stankoniaks's picture
Joined: 02/04/2009
MGoPoints: 1728

A Germany win or a Serbia win.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:03 PM | as of 75 mins in (Score:1)
BiaBiakabutuka21
BiaBiakabutuka21's picture
Joined: 05/21/2009
MGoPoints: 987

this scenario is looking likely:

GER > GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Ghana (unless the amount GHA loses by and the amount AUS wins by total 5 goals or more).

 

Can Aus score and Germany both score another goal?

If not it looks like we have Ghana.  Who do people prefer between Ghana and Serbia?

 

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:07 PM | Ghana is definitely the (Score:1)
BillyShears
BillyShears's picture
Joined: 05/27/2009
MGoPoints: 2178

Ghana is definitely the tougher team.

Fucking magnets, how do they work?

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:11 PM | Thanks (Score:1)
BiaBiakabutuka21
BiaBiakabutuka21's picture
Joined: 05/21/2009
MGoPoints: 987

So we want Serbia to get one more goal and for Germany to win.  Not sure how the goal differential would shake out though.

Wow... Serbia almost tied it up but it was offsides.

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