OT - Tour de France thoughts
Today the Tour de France rolls over a series of 7 sets of cobbles, all of which (I think) are part of the Paris-Roubaix race (the most important Spring Classic). 9 sets of cobbles were scheduled, but it's raining today and the last time Paris-Roubaix ran in the rain it was mayhem so they've reduced the danger somewhat.
Chris Froome went down hard yesterday. Although his team pulled him back to the peloton and he didn't lose time, he is damaged and his status as favorite to win the GC is in huge question.
The race begins today in earnest and, whatever we think of these super-skinny-vampires-on-bikes, their unbelievable courage, skill and stamina will be on display today. If you've ever wanted to check it out now/tonight is the time. NBCSN live right now or primetime at 8 eastern. Cheers.
I lost some interest in the tour this year when Cavendish went down. I'm still going to watch, but I think my interest will increase when they hit the mountains.
Don't like to see anyone get hurt, but I was tired of seeing Cavendish and his cocky antics at the line each year -- I won't mind seeing a race with others more involved in the sprints. I read in the press that his crash likely means he'll never wear the yellow jersey.
It's also disappointing to see Contador among the favorites, as from Puerto to his stripped Tour title, the guy does not inspire. Not sad to see him lose so much time today.
But it was an exciting day and I'm more interested this year than I have been in several years.
...has abandoned after another crash. My quarter says it may be Contador's tour to lose.
but let's not be spoilers... as for Contador, who knows what he actually has after the doping problems. I like Nabali or maybe even Van Garderen.
If you want to avoid spoilers, the thread discussing the current stage is probably the first place to not click on.
I normally find the flat stages boring but this is amazing. What a miserable and terrifying day to be racing a bike. I feel bad for those guys caught up in the carnage. I enjoy watching this type of racing much more than waiting for the sprint finish at the end of a normal stage. These guys are warriors.
This should be a thrilling stage to watch. For those thinking "hey, I've ridden down a bricked street before, it's not that big of a deal", a photo of a typical cobbled stage (just add rain and a ton of riders, plus spectators crowding the scene):
most of us can't achieve across a flat for more than a few seconds, let alone for hours including in the cobbles.
As you know, but some that don't follow the sport may not, this is following four consecutive days of racing a total of 441 miles (with 97 miles more in today's stage), on bikes with incredibly thin tires, aggressive frame geometries (i.e., the bikes are squirrely as can be), with physical contact between the riders - especially in the peloton, and dodgy visibility depending on how the weather goes.
The cobblestones are a fantastic addition for the fans, but can be expected to take a toll on the riders that belies a description of this as a "flat 97 mile stage". I won't be surprised if there's a fairly high body count after today's stage, at least for nagging injuries, with possibly a couple more riders quitting the Tour due to injury. If I was a rider in the Tour, I'd be pissed about this stage. As a fan, it's fascinating.
Wider rim and tire combinations have been show to be more aerodynamic and better rolling. in addition to having better puncture resistance they tend to be the set up of choice for more pros
The pros definitely use wider rims/tires on cobblestones, they do in Paris-Roubaix so they undoubtedly did today. But 'wide' doesn't mean Schwinn cruiser wide.
"Wider" is relative though. Guys are going away from the 21mm and going the other way to 25mm but you generally won't see anything above that on normal stages. For the cobbles, they'll go up to ~30mm max, but still mostly in the 28mm range. The lower pressures and wider tires tend to "squirm" a little bit more in turns and may have contributed to some of the crashing in the corners
for anyone who isn't near a TV and wants to see updates online:
The thing is winning grand tours have become so formulaic. You need a great climber that can do a decent TT. Other than that, they just sit behind their teammates snug as a bug for 90% of the tour.
The cobbles throw that script out the window. How often do you seen GC guys dirtied and isolated prying open gaps on their own over their rivals individually at the end of a flat stage? Cobbles do introduce an element of luck, but it also forces GC guys bring more to the table than just amazing power:weight ratio and a TT position tuned with hours and hours in a wind tunnel. They now have to be strong, tough riders that can handle a bike and think on their feet.
Also, the story of the day wasn't so much the cobbles as the weather. GC guys getting knocked out on wet roads is nothing new.
The cobbles are scarier than shit, but in this case, even with the rain, only 1 guy was forced to abandon and that was before the cobbles. Granted it was Froome, but his tour was in doubt already from the previous day's crash.
Quick question... I thought it odd that Astana was able to put 3 guys in front, none of whom appeared to be gret classics riders. First thought was PEDs, but that makes no sense on a flat stage on cobbles where skill is paramount. Next thought is gear. I wonder whether Astana just had their bikes set up better for the conditions? Wiggins and Froome in '12 riding away from the competion in the mountains with their oblong chain rings may be a recent example of this.
Lieuwe Westra is a pretty strong rider. I'm not sure if he's done well in cobbles before, but he's got some good results and stage wins. He's a time trialist, which tends to carry over well to cobbles since it's more about having a lot of power and being a bigger rider that doesn't get bounced as badly.
Fuglsang is maybe a little more of a surprise, but also a somewhat larger, stronger rider.Edit, he has a mountain biking background, so at least he brings the bike handing aspect.
I think today was more about fighting to stay at the front and to not let gaps develop. It seemed like most teams managed to stay together until the very end, but many had to wait for their GC men who for one reason or another fell behind a gap.
...astonishing and gutsy ride by Nibali.
Yep. Love to see the GC guys make a gutsy move like that. It paid off handsomely.
I'm a huge cyclocross fan so I'm pretty pumped by the result and the way it unfolded.
Me too. I was hoping to see Stybar in this tour, thought he would have shown something on the cobbles. Boom looks good, another former CX World Champion.
Sorry Froome went down, and who'd have thought the Shark would thrive on the cobbles? Team Astana rode a fantastic race, it really shows you how important the team aspect of the race is in the TDF.
This has been an unbelievable first week so far. I couldn't believe how much the peleton split up in the English stages, and now today . . . this is nuts. Not the best conditions to ride in, but it's made for compelling viewing.
Bummer for Froome. 
Team Sky looks like they made a big mistake now by leaving Wiggins at home, and I really wish Nairo Quintana was at the Tour this year because I can't remember a more wide open race. He would have suffered badly today but would have been fun to watch in the mountains.
It seems Quintana is destined to win tour(s), but this year's attempt at both the Giro and Vuelta would be pretty impressive. He's halfway home.
I think Wiggo should have been there just as an extra helper for Froome. Realistically though for SKY, once Froome went out, I really don't think having WIggins makes that much difference for them as another GC option. The went from pole position to hoping for a top 10 or top 5 either way.
...what little Richie Porte can put together now that he is relieved of his role as super domestique. He's a strong climber and not slouch at TT - I wouldn't expect him to win but I think he has top 5 potential.
2013 Ritchie Porte had a great chance to podium, but he's been pretty spotty this year. He seems to always have one bad day in the mountains, usually the first day. Hopefully being relieved of domestique duty will save him some energy and help him avoid that this year now that he's "the guy."
They did 100 miles in 3:18, at a average of ~29mph, despite the rain and cobbles. That's insane, faster than they rode the last couple flat stages. Some mega risks were taken trying to get positioning for the cobbles, which led to all the carnage in the corners.
Absolutely amazing ride for Astana and Nibali. They definitely seem like the strongest team right now. Even with several riders going down in crashes, they still managed to keep a guy or two with Nibali until the end.
Nibali has done absolutely nothing all year, but his track record says if he's found his form just in time for the tour, he can be very dangerous. I still think Contador is the guy to beat now that Froome is out, but he lost two and a half minutes today and his team has looked in total disarray thus far. It should be an epic battle in the mountains and will probably come down to the final TT on stage 21.
Lars Boom had a great ride too, kept at the front and stayed out of trouble before finding a natural alliance with the Astana boys (Astana wanted time, Boom wanted the stage) to work together with to gap Sagan and Cancellara off.
American Andrew Talansky had a decent day, staying out of trouble for the most part and gaining time on a lot of rivals, although losing some time to others. If not for a moment of inattention and a crash on a corner on the cobbles, he would have been right at the front to the end I think. Still, he's in great position for a top 5.
As much as it pains me to see a Tour favorite crash out and some of the other carnage out on the road today, I have to say, that stage is an instant classic.
My strong suspicion is, like the Schleks (whom I tend to like) he's mostly a product of PEDs (the overall effects of which seem to be diminishing for a variety of reasons). I think it's a three man race now between Nibali, Van Garderen (great team), and Kwaitkowski who should be able to run a great TT on stage 20. I don't think Talansky is quite ready for the tdf podium, but he has a great future.
Contador looked great in the Dauphine though. Even when he wasn't at his best last year, he was right there before getting dropped on the last couple climbs. I'm not going to take a guess at whether PEDs were responsible for his past wins, but he is still just a naturally gifted climber and can still put in a good TT. Getting dropped in the last 5km today wasn't a good sign and his team has looked terrible, but I think his tour campaign won't start in earnest until we get to Stage 10.
I think that might be overstating things - the current version of Contador (presumably less doped-up) is still a excellent, top 5-level guy. He's just not the world-destroyer he was when he was doping. He finished fourth in the Tour last year and two of the riders who finished ahead of him are now out. The lost time today hurts him, but I think he's still going to try some bold moves in the mountains and they might pan out.
I envision we will see repeated attacks at Nibali from BMC, Omega and Garmin in support of their GC riders starting in Stage 10.... Sky was able to repel the attacks of Nibali and Evans two years ago and Quintana last year with ease. I think this year will be different for the leader. I think the two who have the teams to put Nibali under big pressure this year are Van Garderen and Kwiatkowski. I suspect Contador will match attacks he thinks will stick, but otherwise hold back and hope Nibali cracks. I look forward to finding out.
Just finished watching the stage. Wow, just wild. I feel for Froome but I have to admit that it adds drama having him and Wiggins out of the mix. Really exciting Tour so far.
...your cynicism goes across all sports. It would be pretty irrational if you believed that doping was rife only in those with the strictest, most sophisticated and expensive controls, while a sport with plenthy of incentives to cheat and virtually no meaningful testing (and thus no positives), is totally clean.
Just as an example: imagine an amateur/college sport, where testing is done with advance notice, is wildly underfunded, and regimes are designed to look for easy to find recreational drugs rather than harder to detect PEDs that are nonetheless known to be in wide use... Imagine that sport is one in which player size, strength and speed have made huge increases over the last decade that can't be attributed to just changes in training or nutrition.
I'm not trying to criticize that hypothetical sport, but just test your statement. Would that really be better?