OT - Tour de France stage 17

Submitted by jmblue on

Let's launch this one in advance this time.  Profile of today's course:

 

Interesting stage, with its huge descent.  It reminds me somewhat of stage 13 (the one to Lourdes, won by Hushovd), but the climb isn't quite as difficult.  Contador threw down the gauntlet yesterday; will there be more attacks from the contenders today or will they keep in reserve for the monster stages to come?

MMB 82

July 20th, 2011 at 1:55 AM ^

I don't see where the big GC riders will be able to get any significant time on each other. Too big a decent after the Cat 1, and the final Cat 2 is not enough to sustain an attack.

Placentasaurus

July 20th, 2011 at 2:09 AM ^

but the finish here is pretty similar to stage 16 where contador took a minute out of Andy Schleck. I dont see any reason why he won't try it again and see what happens, he needs time on the next three stages, and any chance to weaken his opponents he should take. The Schlecks as well as voeckler looked vulnerable, and it would be unwise not to press the attack and give them a day to "recover" if you can call that stage map recovery. 

Azulio

July 20th, 2011 at 6:20 AM ^

Yes, I would think you'll see some action from the contenders on the final climb, maybe the margins will be a little bigger this time since it's a much tougher stage...it won't be for the stage victory though, last classic breakaway stage. Hopefully someone other than thor will win.

Firstbase

July 20th, 2011 at 7:44 AM ^

...looked very strong yesterday and sent a strong message to Contador that he may, in fact, be in better form. Can he sustain it? I think so. I don't see Contador winning this year, or Schleck for that matter.

 

IronDMK

July 20th, 2011 at 8:55 AM ^

on the final descent... maybe even after the Cat 1 and into the Cat 2 and subsequent descent.  There are some chances for seconds here and there.  But that is obviously important and I could see it happening.  85km left on my watch...

MileHighWolverine

July 20th, 2011 at 9:35 AM ^

I see Contador or Cadel making a move on the last climb leading into the long descent since both Andy and Frank repeatedly admitted yesterday how much they hate descending - and this course in particular.

It looks like it could be an opportunity to pick another 30-60 secs and both AC and CE need to put time to TV and Frandy. 

For a great daily recap I would strongly suggest checking out the Blazing Saddles Blog from across the pond: http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blog/blazin-saddles/

 

KinesiologyNerd

July 20th, 2011 at 9:44 AM ^

Fun fact: this is the second time Contador will have been over Sestriere in a Grand Tour this year. The first time was the Giro D'italia stage 20. Contador finished with a group GC riders, and ahead of some other GC guys. Foreshadowing? I hope so!

jmblue

July 20th, 2011 at 2:00 PM ^

He lost time on all the GC contenders, including Evans (which really hurts him).   Voeckler's aggressive tendencies cost him today.   He could have stayed with the other contenders and kept his lead, but he wanted to squeeze out a few more seconds over Evans.  Oh well.  He's fun to watch regardless.

d.

July 20th, 2011 at 11:02 AM ^

As much as a despise him, Contador made a great move attempting to lose Evans and the Schlecks.  HOWEVA the camera crew made an error by not showing them chase him down and catching right at the line which I loved.  I have to imagine, those guys took some risks on the descent.

Too bad Voeckler ran off the road on the descent, that certainly contributed to him losing time.

BlueintheLou

July 20th, 2011 at 11:59 AM ^

That descent was really tough to follow. Bad camera switches. You never knew how close that group was to AC and SS until the last 400 meters. With all the trees you couldn't see who was who. Seemed like a dangerous descent, but the Cadel crew managed to shut down a good attack by AC. Now, we get to the fun part. Galibier. 22.1KM at 4.5%. It is time.

BlueHenBlue

July 20th, 2011 at 12:26 PM ^

I would hate to see Evans win - he's been wheelsucking this entire time. Contador is starting to light it up and show he has what it takes to be 3X champ.

If TV could have kept up on the descent, I wonder if that would have helped AC/SS gain time on the Schlecks and Evans?

IronDMK

July 20th, 2011 at 12:58 PM ^

He's in a position which has him ahead of the other major contendors.  So attacking them at this point doesn't make a lot of sense.  He's answering the attacks which is necessary.  But he's probably got them in the Time Trial at the end... so in theory he could hold the same gap going into the last day and have a great shot at coming out on top.  The tour isn't about who attacks most, it's about who can last the longest.  Besides, Cadel DID attack on the descent just the other day.  And I'm sure he will make an attack or two tomorrow and/or Friday.  It's going to be awesome tomorrow.  Also, Contador already is a 3x champ.

Firstbase

July 20th, 2011 at 2:26 PM ^

I'd like to see either Evans or Voeckler win it this year. Voeckler sure looked shaky on the descent today... supposedly a strong area for him. The way it's playing out this year, the stage 20 TT may determine the winner. I see 4 or 5 riders within a minute or so of the lead at that point. 

Could be dramatic.

jmblue

July 20th, 2011 at 2:49 PM ^

I'm pulling for Voeckler to somehow finish in yellow, but I think the pressure's starting to get to him.  He acknowledged losing concentration on the final descent and it cost him.  He's a battler though, and I think he might keep the jersey one more stage.    Alpe d'Huez will probably be a bridge too far.

jmblue

July 20th, 2011 at 5:19 PM ^

I didn't realize how close Frank Schleck was to Evans in the new GC.  (Evans is 1'18" behind, F. Schleck is 1'22".)  No one's really talking about him to win, but if Voeckler and Evans crack in the next two days, which is not unthinkable, he could be in prime position.  Even if he's not a great time trialist, if he doesn't lose any time to Contador, his brother or Sanchez in the Alps, he could get by.