OT - Tigers Game & Baserunning

Submitted by Va Azul on

Last night while leading 4-3 with runners at first and third, Miguel Cabrera got picked off first base. Russell Branyan, the Seattle first basemen, proceeded to chase Cabrera towards second, eventually making the throw. Ryan Raburn, the runner on third, then broke for home. The shortstop, fielded the throw and relayed home in an attempt to catch the runner from third. Raburn was safe at home, and Cabrera proceeded to second with a successful double steal.

My question for any of the baseball fans on this board, is there any chance that this was a set play? With how horrendous the Tigers baserunning has been, specifically Cabreras, its hard for me to imagine that it was. But First & Third plays are not unheard of:

Our favorite athletic director, Skip Bertman, used the "LSU steal" to great effect in the College World Series. With a left-hander on the mound and runners on first and third, the runner on first is directed to steal on the pitchers first movement. The runner on third is directed to steal home immediately following the runner on first's movement. The natural inclination for the pitcher is to make the throw to first, or if flustered, balk by not following through on his motion to either the plate or first.

A first and third steal can have a double steal option, with the runner on third "reading" the catcher's throw and the middle infield's positioning. On this type of play, the batter can square to bunt, putting extra pressure on the defense. The third basemen must respect the bunt, which allows the runner on third to follow him down the line increasing his secondary lead. It also, depending on the defensive responsiblities, forces the second basemen to cover first, leaving the shortsop to cover the bag at second. A right-handed shortstop will have a more difficult pivot to throw home.

These types of plays are not so prevalent at the major league level, where the arms and moreso the releases are incredible. But after an 0-16 RISP on Sunday, any chance this was an attempt to get an insurance run? Raburn's not that great of a baserunner, and his reaction to the play was perfect. Your thoughts?

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Braylons Butte…

August 19th, 2009 at 6:59 PM ^

At work and not gonna find the link, but Leyland said Cabrera was caught "napping" and it was highly fortunate that Raburn was able to take advantage with a heads-up, but risky play.

Joined: 11/30/2008

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maizevanblue

August 19th, 2009 at 7:04 PM ^

With two outs in the eighth, I don't think you take that chance to try such a high risk play, especially since the baserunning has been bad. However, don't forget the great baserunning play that Raburn made when he tagged to third on Huff's fly ball, making it all possible.

Joined: 02/28/2009

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Va Azul

August 19th, 2009 at 7:24 PM ^

I think we all agree that it wasn't a set-play, and apparently Leyland confirmed it. But I disagree about the two outs. You only really ever call that play with two outs, when an out can't score the run. Even in the straight steal scenarios, the runner is generally instructed to stop before second, to avoid a potential tag. In a sense, the whole play is designed to be a "sacrifice" with two-outs, with the potential upside of a succesful double-steal

Joined: 09/13/2008

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maizevanblue

August 19th, 2009 at 8:12 PM ^

I understand your argument, but I still believe that play to be best with 1 out. In that case, if they play fails and the runner is thrown out at home, you still get a runner in scoring position with two down. Whereas with two outs, the inning would be over. Also, if the runner is tagged out at 2nd, and the runner on third has no chance to score, he still is at third, again with the inning continuing. Since the chance that play actually works is very low (especially in the Majors), with two outs you run a high chance of running yourself out of the inning. Instead, you allow your batter to make something happen.

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willywill9

August 19th, 2009 at 11:44 PM ^

I see your point, but at the same time if the guy is out at 2B/1B, and there are two outs with a runner on 3rd, a sac fly/sac bunt doesn't do anything for you. On the flip side, with one out, you let the hitter hit, he has more ways to bring in that run. If he doesn't drive in the run and makes an unproductive out, there is still one out left. Might as well risk it to get the guy home if your guy isn't a good contact hitter. In general, I'm not a fan of this play unless I'm a little league coach.

Joined: 09/22/2008

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maizevanblue

August 20th, 2009 at 8:21 AM ^

You are right, there are too many different scenarios to think about with this play. Speed of the baserunners, instincts of baserunners, ability of the hitter to put the ball in play (w/o hitting into a DP w/ one out), the quality of catcher and middle infielders on defense. Not to mention the inning, score, and number of outs. I agree that this play should remain in LL. You make good points, and this discussion obviously shows why there are so many different coaching strategies out there.

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