I wonder if a 1st place team 15 games in has ever looked gloomier.
One way to look at it is they have played awful and are still in first place. So if they start playing to their ability and maybe they can keep it up.
If they can keep matches way, way far away from their bullpen...
This bullpen is like McGyver. They can make a bomb out of wheat toast and chewing gum.
and the Tigers aren't bottom 5 in relief pitching.
Finding quality relief pitchers are hard.
But it's easier if you have enough talent in the farm system to keep looking for a good combination, thats been a problem for the Tigers for a long time and I don't see how it gets better anytime soon.
I hope not, but a three game sweep vs. another (now) ~.500 team is no bueno.
I'll be back in Michigan over 4th July week and planning on three games with friends while I'm there. I hope they are at least still hanging on to 1st place then.
I think a large portion of their victories have been comebacks. Not sure how sustainable that is. Pitching is an issue, and these older guys won't be healthy all year.
Cleveland is the class of the division.
Of course a large portion of their losses have been comebacks by the other team, which... well, that's not encouraging either.
This was an atrocious series. Defense was horrible, guys aren't hitting, bullpen is terrible (though they just called up Jimenez and Hardy, which should help). Getting JD back will be huge, and VMart really needs to start hitting.
With all their problems something somewhat overlooked is Franky is pretty much done. Usually closer gets a ton of attention but there are so many fires right now he almost seems relatively reliable. Its a huge problem.
Yeah he looks terrible. Hard for a closer to be successful with a high 80s fastball, even harder when he doesn't have pinpoint control to make up for it. Much like Joe Nathan before him, K-Rod appears to be done.
Vmart looks done, bat speed is obsolete and he doesnt have a single XBH in the cleanup spot. They need JD back in the worst way possible.
Baseball needs a new stat. Like how when a guy gets a hit but we call it an error, when Victor hits a double but only makes it to first we need to call it a walker.
A guy can surprise us, but at some point a guy who is old and beaten up isn't just slumping a bit; he's in decline. With this roster it is kind of inevitable, and every time Miggy has a bad week I have to remember that at some point the "bad weeks" are going to be a regular thing.
I mean, they had to resign him after that season he had a couple of years ago, but this can't be a surprise to anybody.
I think Zimmerman is the biggest concern. He also looks like toast. His velo is way down and his control sucks. That could be a really horrible contract when all said and done and possibly the anchor the brings this season crashing to the bottom
Who are in full rebuild mode...
Anyone see this all-timer last night?
Brad Ausmus said someone in the stands yelled "I got it!" twice when the Tigers dropped balls in the outfield.
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) April 20, 2017
when the home team struggles to sell any more than a couple thousand tickets for most weekday home games. One loudmouth fan can easily be heard above the deafening silence in such a tomb.
Tropicana Field is a pathetic excuse for a MLB baseball park---it makes Minnesota's old home, the Metrodome, look like a baseball shrine.
............borrow from football: the fielder should yell out "fire" if he's gonna catch or "poison" keeping others away.
Did they fall for the hidden ball trick too?
The title of the thread looks like the beginnings of a mathematical equation. Advanced stats! We can do this. The relevant equation looks like this:
(x * y)b = z
Where x = something like, oh, the current winning ratio expressed as a fraction; y = perhaps the estimated winning percentage or WAR or whatever based upon the team's hitting and starting pitching using some fancy advanced statistics or what have you; and z = the probability of the team making the postseason.
b is the value of the team's bullpen. b = 0. Do the math.
It's basically a 5 way tie for first...Crazy thing so far this year is that the parity is pretty incredible. Usually, there are a few teams dominating already with 1 or 2 losses. Every team in the league has at least 5 losses already (Baltimore is only one with 4)!
May make for a very interesting season. The Tigers would dominate if they could only play 7 inning games...Bullpen is horrible.
Tigers are technically in first, but they're also only 1 game out of last place and have an abysmal minus 21 run differential after only 15 games. So to the OP's question, I agree that's it's tough to recall a gloomier outlook for a first place team at this point.
There are exactly two arms that are reasonably reliable in the bullpen. Both are named Wilson. When Ausmus gets on the phone and asks for anybody else, he might as well be ordering pizza.
It is almost humorous to see how he will screw up a potential save. Hope Jimenez (sp?) develops quickly.
They are going down with K-rod. He was good at one point in his career. The Tigers are great at picking up dudes who are on the backside of their careers and hoping like hell that they still have something left. The problem is, is that they rarely do.
I've always had a problem with the idea that only a "closer" can pitch the last inning. Especially with the Tigers. Just put a guy out there who can get outs. At this point it's all anybody wants to see.
Was cautiously optimistic they would take 2 of 3 from TB. But that series was just so brutal. Glad to know bullpen changes were made. I kind of can't believe they are where they are with so many big sticks not hitting and the bullpen not named Wilson being a trainwreck.
Frankie says, "Relax!"...promptly blows save. This team just doesn't have any bullpen options, and Zimmerman looks to be done. I don't see them finishing above .500, though I'm really surprised Toronto is sucking so bad.
The White Sox and the Twins are horrific, probably losing 90+ each. The Royals are going to blow things up at the deadline in July. The Tigers will probably finish above .500. That might mean 82-80, but above .500 nonetheless. However, their bullpen issues guarantee that theyh won't be much above .500, either.
I'm no expert, but hasn't Zim been a real disappointment?
I don't think they should have thrown the asked-for money at Scherzer, but he at least has continued to perform. Not clear to me that it would make a difference for the Tigers, but still...
I wouldn't be surprised in the least to hear that Zimmerman is still injured. Here's the scary part of his contract: we signed him the split second BEFORE the pitching market went nanners that winter.
I would not have paid Scherzer the contract he wanted, either, even in hindsight. Pitch for 7 years and get paid for 14 or 15 years due to salary deferrment? Get out of here.
For me it's worth recognizing that, some rough starts aside, it seems like the organization has done a nice job compiling young starters. Verlander's resurgence helps too, of course. And there are some pieces in the order that are still good; just a lot of holes, and JD looks good to bolt this winter, too. Tough job to rebuild an entire outfield.
That was DD, not Al Avila. So far Al Avila has signed zimmermann, pelfry, and mark lowe. he also sent down one of our only good arms after a 1-2-3 inning for a guy that promptly gave up 4 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning.
traded our top catalyst in Maybin for nothing. signed upton to a terrible deal. Avila is in way over his head.
Don't forget he brought back Al Avila.
We hadit good with DD and Old man Ilitch for 10 years. Might be a lot longer than that before Tiger fans are happy again.
Fair enough, wasn't really defending the front office so much as appreciating that we had some young arms as a salve for not paying huge amounts of money for Scherzer.
Was K-Rod an Avila guy too?
Agreed on Scherzer. They were already laboring under the huge contracts to Cabrera, Verlander, Sanchez (at the time it wasn't ludicrous, like now), V-Mart, and were (are) still paying off a portion of Prince Fielder's bloated deal. They made a $144 million offer to Max, and he said no. At some point, you've got to cut bait.
The problem is and continues to be the bullpen. Sadly I think they aretwo arms away from being really good. Unfortunately, those arms are no where in the system.
Ausmus contract year. He's finally going to lose it. The team is paper thin and any injuries hurt more. JD Upton Iglesias, geez thats 1/3 of the lineup
The reason the OF defense so bad.. Lets see, coverted IF, rookie, rookie.
I'm most worried about Vmart, He looks cooked.
K-Rod should now be called Blow-Rod.
It's 1984 all over again. They won the World Series on my 16th birthday that year :)
Uhhh yeah it's still early. But a -21 run differential is not a good sign.
They'll finish worse off than the Brewers, book it. The bad news is, Milwaukee's rebuilding with young talent, Detroit isn't.
Lol no they won't.
The bright side is that the starting rotation has a lot of upside with the young guys. Jacoby jones, McCann, and Castellanos are other bright spots with a good amount of ability. It's a matter of building a better farm system that produces position players that are worth a damn and finding relievers that can do their job.
Didn't even see that botched double play that lost the game the other day. Ugh.
This last series with Tampa was awful. Does Martinez's bat really make up for his terrible base running? Someone hit a ball to right that was guaranteed to get anyone else to 3rd, and he just strolled in to 2nd. Frustrating 3 games, though nothing was more frustrating then the play to end game 2. Ugh. That being said, I still love the Tigers.
haven't played particularly well so far, and will probably start putting it together soon
Some of this is just bad luck, some is the residue of design (e.g. we have a lot of guys on huge contracts because we were willing to pay later for their good years then, and it's later now), and some is due to desperate/bad choices (e.g. signing pitchers to long-term big-money deals).
Avila the Elder hasn't impressed me, but it's not like he started with a strong young roster either, and our departed owner was pushing for a title and willing to throw money at players, so we made decisions out of desperation; we shouldn't be surprised when they fail.
The bottom line is that we spent a ton of money to extend our window for a Series and that strategy has pretty much played itself out. We were fortunate that Verlander bounced back and that Cabrera is aging gracefully, but at some point all of VMart/Kinsler/Verlander/Cabrera/Sanchez/Zimmerman will be millstones on our roster.