OT So why on earth would the Tigers consider trading Porcello?
Tigers are looking to pick up a quality starter for the stretch run. One unsubstantiated rumor has Colorado wanting both Jacob Turner and Porcello for Ubaldo Jimenez. http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2011/07/detroit_tigers_links_tigers_st.html
Porcello has shown no signs of arm problems in his Major League career and was maybe the best Tiger pitcher down the stretch in his rookie season, pitching well while the Tigers collapsed. Add to that he is just 22 years old and is in the midst of his third Major League season.
I would reluctantly give up Turner and a prospect or 2 for Jimenez, but I don't include Porcello.
Maybe some of you advance metrics mavens can give your opinion, yea or nay, on whether you would consider packaging Porcello for Jimenez or someone else, but I don't go for that, no can do.
Porcello meanwhile is cruising towards his 5th straight win with another solid outing.
It will be interesting to see what Dombrowski does in the next two days, after receiving a virtual ultimatum from Illitch
According to Rosenthal, the Tigers don't want to move anybody thats currently with the team.
I am all for the Tigers trading for a top of the line starter (Jiminez, Shields, Guthrie) but for PROSPECTS and draft picks. We need 4 quality pitchers to win this division. SO why would you trade your #3 starter? Jiminez might win 2-3 more games than Porcello this year but is 2-3 wins really going to be the diference that wins us the division (I think not IMO).
For the Tigers to win the division and have any chance to win a playoff series you need the following rotation 1. Verlander 2. "Player to be traded for" (See Above) 3. Max Scherzer 4. Porcello 5. Ride a hot arm (Below, Penny, Toledo arm)
you can't trade draft picks in mlb.
Jimenez is a considerably better pitcher at this point.
Jimenez's strike out rate is a very impressive 8.56, while Porcello's is only 5.25. This is huge, since a pitcher can't much control much of what happens if the batter makes contact. Striking batters out is the best way to ensure that the batter will get out. Basically, the higher the K/9, the better. Jimenez is leagues better than Porcello there. Also, Porcello is unlikely to improve much as a strikeout pitcher.
Jimenez is also a (slightly) better groundball pitcher. Since groundballs can't be homeruns, this is a good thing.
Porcello's one claim to being better is a lower walk rate, but frankly it doesn't make up for his lack of strikeouts.
A good way to compare the two is Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP. It gives an ERA-based number for how the pitcher actually has pitched, ignoring things the pitcher can't control, like bad fielding or bad luck. Ubaldo's FIP this season is 3.48, and has been around there for 4 years running now. Porcello's is 4.02. It's not bad, but Ubaldo is a much better pitcher at the moment.
Whether that's worth the four year age difference is tough to say. Porcello should be a serviceable to good pitcher for a long time. Ubaldo should be a good to very good pitcher for a little less long. Personally, I'd take Ubaldo, especially if the Tigers are just trying to win this year.
Hope that helps.
The problem w/ trading Scherzer or Porcello is that it really doesn't solve anything this season. Right now we have three dependable starters (Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello), a meh starter (Penny), and a black hole in the fifth spot (Coke, Oliver, Furbush, Below - heck, with Leyland being obsessed with having a lefty in the rotation, you might as well see what Mike Maroth or Justin Thompson are up to these days).
If you include Porcell/Scherzer in a deal we still have three dependable starters (verlander, porcello/scherzer, and Jimenez), a meh starter, and a black hole in the 5th spot. The only way I'd trade for Jimenez is if we were to only give up prospects and meh position players. But I don't think that will get the deal done. I'd be more than happy with Fister or Kuroda if they can get it done.
Fair point. Totally agree.
Great point. Jiminez is not going to be a major upgrade over Scherzer/Porcello, so you are maybe going to get a slight WAR improvement at that position, but certainly not enough to justify giving up that much. Turner I'm fine with getting rid of if it nabs a good player, and I'd throw in Martinez (?), the 3rd basemen who's been receiving some buzz.
But I heard the team is looking hard at Doug Pfister, which would be a nice upgrade at the 4th/5th spot without having to give up much.
Please give some context for FIP, or maybe I should just look it up myself. But what is considered Tremendous FIP, what is average and where do Jimenez and Porcello rank?
is on the exact same scale as ERA. It's just ERA with luck and defense taken out (ERA calculated solely based on walks, strikeouts and home runs)
On the face of it FIP is not a very compelling stat for me. It is hard for me to take seriously the assumption that balls put in play are of equal rate regardless of pitcher. I guess I would like to know batting average against pitchers minus strikeouts and see what it looks like. I have to think a guy like Verlander is going to get more outs on balls put in play vs. a pitcher of less ability, making the FIP stat questionable for me from the onset.
saying that pitchers do not control what happens to balls put into the field of play to anything more than a very, very, very marginal degree. Justin Verlander's career BABIP is .284. Rick Porcello's is .297. Brad Penny's is .300. It's just not a major factor at all. Pitchers are good if they strike people out, don't walk people, or keep the ball on the ground. Pretty much everything else is just a myth.
Roy Halladay: .292.
Cliff Lee: .296
Felix Hernandez: .295
Zach Greinke: .308
Joe Blanton: .299
Mike Maroth: .303
Phil Coke: .289
Why did you have to add the part about keeping the ball on the ground? Seems to me pitching to induce grounders is somewhat in the pitchers control, thus negating the veracity of FIP
doesn't turn into an extra base hit as often. Ground ball pitchers will have the same BABIP as fly ball pitchers, but those hits will do less damage. No one pretends FIP is perfect. But it's far better than ERA, which rewards a pitcher for pitching in front of an awesome defense or for having awesome luck.
Actually, ground balls are hits more often than fly balls, so a ground ball pitcher will typically have a somewhat higher BABIP on average (although it still falls in the range you usually see for all pitchers) all things being equal, but those pitchers also don't give up the number of HRs since they give up fewer fly balls, and will likely end up with more GIDPs as well on average.
trade draft picks in baseball.
Dont worry Porcello nor Max Scherzer arent going anywheres. the deal will be Jacob Turner, Nick Castellenos, Andy Oliver, and Casper Wells plus a few just toss ins.
That would be the worst trade since America got Manhattan and the Indians got $1.00.
Jacob Turner needs to be the centerpiece in the trade, plus he isnt going to be a #1 starter. Andy Oliver hasnt been that good, so he is expenable. Nick Castellenos will be replaced by Francisco martinez who is more developed and is gaining power, but could switch places with nick in the trade. As for Casper Wells there is no place for him on the tigers but he could be a decent starter on another team so he is also expenable
Well, those four, plus the additional three you implied, for a grand total of seven young players in your system, for a guy who had one amazing half year, has blown dick since, and looks like he is about to break his own forearm every time he is about to release the baseball...yeah, smart move, way to think it through. We gave up TWO and got miguel cabrera. in addition, Detroit's farm system is shite. Its a barren wasteland, and your suggestion is to go strip mining. I mean, I wouldnt do it, was basically my point.
Here is a perfect encapsulation regarding why you do not do it. Church...
arent quite close to jimenez talent level wise.
for a shot at the present doesn't actually work out that often.
And Ubaldo has lost like 5 mph off his fastball this year, so he's not without risk.
the guy is a tremendous athlete and if anything was wrong physically they wouldve accepted our trade. it will be an interesting 24 hours to say the least
in interesting times."
I don't relish the thought of seeing another Tiger prospect (Turner) traded to watch him become an all star or multi time all star with another team ( Smoltz or Jurrjens for example). If the Tigers hadn't traded Jair we may not be having this discussion right now. I understand you have to give quality to get quality but don't destroy the farm while doing it. What makes you think that Turner won't be a number 1 starter? He's got an upper 90's fastball a great curve and is working in a changeup. He's listed as the Tigers top prospect and one of the best in all of the minor leagues. He's got everything you want in an Ace, I'm sure he won't be better than Verlander but why not have a Number 1 starter and a 1a to go along with Scherzer, Porcello and Free agent/ young guy to be found later. I'd like to see them get a lesser arm now and keep Turner, and trade Smyly or Oliver instead.
yeah it was a bad trade but not at the time. smoltz had an almost 6 era and doyle came in and went 9-0 with a sub 2 era.
In the Rentaria deal, he would have gone to Florida in the Cabrera/Willis blockbuster along with the other guys that didn't pan out in the big leagues. You're going to lose all stars eventually in trades, but your also going to get star players for scrubs with no futures. Prospect trades are a craps shoot.
I thought it was $24.
It has been said that the Tigers don't want to add to the team by subtracting from the players currently on the team. Porcello isn't going anywhere
Because they can't get shit for Brad Penny
It's been a long time since you could get something for a Penny.
Cabrera scoring on that short pop up to right brought back memories of Gibby tagging up from third on Rusty Kuntz' short pop up in the 84 World Series. I think it must be a good omen of some sort.
Still the greatest sports name of all time.
In a game that was well out of hand, Schlereth looked like a different pitcher than a couple weeks ago. He seemed to keep the ball down which among control have been his biggest problems. Let's hope he can get in a groove and be a servicable lefty in the pen.
Word is turner got the call and is headed up to the bigs. Possible deal on the verge. No idea for who..
So Turner wouldn't be involved then.
Where did you hear this from, btw?
All over twitter and mlbtraderumprs.com. He is not with Erie and may not be with the tigers either. Lots of late night uncertainty
If Turner was suddenly called up, he may very much be involved. I think that, during the week of the trade deadline, teams definitely showcase players who are otherwise not ready and managers are asked to be complicit by making game decisions they might not have even last week.
who's now tearing it up in Atlanta. Why not trade Porcello so he can do the same elsewhere?
Stuck on stupid.
Yes, and what happened to all the pitchers we sent to Florida for Cabrera and Willis? Most of them are on the side of a milk carton somewhere, and Andrew Miller has been sent elsewhere twice since that trade. The only one Florida still has is Burke Badenhop.
Isn't he lost somewhere in the Red Sox organization?
I think he's actually been with the big-league club at some point if he's not currently.
So here is the "report" that Turner will start today vs. the Angels....http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2011/07/report_tigers_are_calling…