Yea I know, tomorrow is game day and the season has started, but this is ridiculous. I understand they got beat by OK st 84-0, but is this team really that bad that they will lose by over 70 points again?
"Without a doubt," said Mike Colbert, vice president of risk management for Las Vegas-based Cantor Gaming, "this is the biggest line I've put up in 10 years doing this."
Someone needs to calculate
5 first downs
5 first downs
Rough Estimates
Here is some very rough figuring for that:
Savannah State managed all of 8 first downs in 34:13 of possession last week on their way to scoring zero points. It's not a perfect calculation by any means, but assuming for the moment FSU could score at the same blinding pace as Oklahoma State, then Savannah St. either needs to find a way to keep the ball about six additional minutes (or FSU slows down the offense and keeps it for about the same amount of time) or a way to keep them to approximately 27 first downs (again, assuming FSU scores at the more or less the same rate - the Cowboys had 33 first downs). Alterantively, Savannah St. would need to get 2-3 more first downs in this scenario. Going with the same assumption, for kicks, it would mean holding FSU to 5-10 on third down conversions (compare to 7-10 for Oklahoma State).
All figures are approximate, of course.
"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."
Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3
I wonder if they're gambling
I wonder if they're gambling against themselves to bring in more money?
Touchdown Michigan!
I'll take Florida State. I
I'll take Florida State. I think Savannah State has 4 true freshmen on the OL (or something close).
No way they
cover that, nor will they try. If they had any inclination to run the score up they certainly will not now. If you are a gambler, take Savannah St. That is easy money.
That's 18 points a quarter to
That's 18 points a quarter to cover. FSU will constantly playing offense because Savannah State has no offense themselves (as well as FSU having a top-tier defense). I'm not so sure that Savannah's D will be able to stop FSU's third stringers. Savannah State is one of the worst teams in FCS (as in D-1AA).
+70.5?
Why would anyone take FSU? They won't even try to win by that margin, and will call off the dogs even if their third string OL is making room for their sixth RB to rush for numbers like that.
Go Blue!
Isn't that what happened last
Isn't that what happened last week?
Touchdown Michigan!
Who is SSU going to put in
Who is SSU going to put in when they're down 45-0? They have ZERO depth at every single position. They would get routed by Grand Valley, let alone Florida State.
Don't get me wrong...
I think FSU could do it easily, I just don't think they're going to try. I guess we'll see after tomorrow, if the score hits 71-0, 74-3 or 78-7.
Go Blue!
I definitely get it - 70.5 is
I definitely get it - 70.5 is insane but it's not that far fetched.
Think of it this way: When
Think of it this way: When we played Delaware St. 3 years ago, we basically had our 3rd string in halfway through the 2nd quarter with the score 42-0. We still finished the game with 63, and they couldn't stop us even when we tried running the clock out. And we finished the game with the ball (just barely) on their side of the field. Our 5-7 team put up 63 points and had there been a couple more minutes left, possibly 70. #16/#18 Okie St. just beat them 84-0, so I think a 70.5 spread is pretty realistic for #6 FSU (even though rankings don't mean much this early in the season).
I wouldn't touch this game either way though...
How many shady bookies have
How many shady bookies have reached out to Seminole players for chance at the easiest money evah?
You know this is the first
You know this is the first time I'm going to say it, but if I needed the money I can imagine that I could be bought it I played for FSU. Who cares if you win by 70 or 80, after all.
"I just hope Tressel doesn't fire me"
-Gordon Gee
Are you insinuating that
FSU has young men of questionable morals and ethics... Blasphemy.
And this is why a lot of
And this is why a lot of places won't put up lines for FBS vs. FCS games...
I hope they have some
I hope they have some ambulances standing by at that game. And at the Alabama - Western Kentucky game.
Not that I hate Western
Not that I hate Western Kentucky, but I really want Bama to blow them up like 84-0. If it is say 41-14, I will cry...again.
Semper Fidelis
I hope Bama loses to them
To hell with Bama... effin jerks.
Why is there a line for this
Why is there a line for this game but no line for the VT-Austin Pea game? Also, am I less of a fan if I took Air Force to beat the spread?
I'm no betting expert but I
I'm no betting expert but I think I heard one time that Michigan is one of the worst teams in college football at covering. I think your bet is probably safe. Tough to bet on a team other than Michigan but at least you're not betting on them losing!
Disgruntled former moderator. I got a lot of problems with you people!
I would totally buy that. I
I would totally buy that. I actually wondered if Mathlete or anyone else on this blog had ever done an analysis of Michigan's percentage at covering, compared to other teams.
I'm pretty sure this has been
I'm pretty sure this has been mentioned here on MGoBlog... I think it may have been jamiemac.
Touchdown Michigan!
I actually haven't seen any
I actually haven't seen any of the other "bigger" betting services willing to establish a line on this (FSU) game... not sure who this Cantor cat is, but I think his booking service is about to get slammed.
Only if you don't parlay it
Only if you don't parlay it with a Michigan victory. If you do, then all is forgiven and you can win some extra money.
The Michigan Difference. Oh yea, it is real.
On one hand Florida State is
On one hand Florida State is going to try really hard to not run up the score, but on the other hand I watched some of that Savannah State Okie State game and they really really suck.
Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
- Vince Lombardi
Savannah St. is one of the
Savannah St. is one of the worst teams in FCS, going 17-88-0 since 2000. Looks like they had only one win last season. This isn't even a good FCS team...
Semper Fidelis
The question becomes this -
The question becomes this - can the 2nd and 3rd string FSU players be stopped by SS 1st stringers? I guess we'll see.
I think the real question is
Why is Savannah State playing 2 top 15 BCS schools back to back in the first place? And we worry about players getting hurt? They should just march them all into a pirahna tank, what's the difference?
About a million bucks.
About a million bucks.
Touchdown Michigan!
I'd really like to bet on
I'd really like to bet on this game.
Tenim un nom el sap tothom. Barca, Barca, BAAARCA!
Savannah State lost to
Savannah State lost to Bethune Cookman by 56 last year and to Southeastern Louisiana by 57. They are one of the worst teams in all of football. No way I would ever bet on them.
Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
- Vince Lombardi
Yes, Savannah State IS that
Yes, Savannah State IS that bad. They're a bottom dwelling FCS team that FSU had to schedule late because West Virginia backed out. They had 139 yards against Oklahoma State and FSU's defense is lightyears ahead of Okie State's D. FSU's third stringers will still be better than Savannah State (we'll see if their starters even get a full half in or not). They need to score 18 points a quarter to beat the spread, that's not a whole lot when you're constantly playing offense the whole game because the opposing team doesn't have one...
I think the line on the
I think the line on the Savannah St/OSU game last week was 67.5, and OkSt still covered that pretty easily.
EDIT: Also worth noting that despite losing 84-0, Savannah St did win the all-important time of possession battle.
Last week, Oklahoma State
Last week, Oklahoma State scored on its first five possessions to take a 35-0 lead late in the first quarter, needing no more than 90 seconds on any of the scoring drives. The 1st string was out after like 3 series and the 2nd stringers were out shortly after that. They ran the ball 42 times for 400 yards. It sounds like short of taking a knee, they almost couldn't not score (not sure if that double negative works there).
Take Savannah State and tease
Take Savannah State and tease it 7 points. You still have 9 TDs and a hook, and a little more bang for your buck. FSU won't run it up.
Athens, GA
teasing a spread that high
is the dumbest thing you can do
Teasing across 3 and 7 (say from -8.5 down to -2.5) improves the chance of covering by around 20%.
Teasing from say +70.5 to +77.5 improves the chance of covering my maaaybe 5%. Not worth the $.
Oh and teasing college football in general is retarded as well. Too much variance.
Teasing NFL, in certain situations, is profitable though.
Wait. Everyone is expecting
Wait. Everyone is expecting Florida frickin State to do the decent thing and NOT run up a score?
I'm in the 7th dimension of bizarro world.
that savannah state ad has
that savannah state ad has got to be feeling pretty crappy right now. this is beyond humiliating for that team.
It's been a lot. Its been a roller coaster that for some reason seemed like it would never get good. But you know what? We kept fighting. It's like that old saying goes, "Those Who Stay Will Be Champions." -David Molk
Yeah, what kind of AD gets
Yeah, what kind of AD gets his team embarrassed on a national level simply for a quick, easy pay day?
Ouch.
Ouch.
Hail.
You win the internet today.
You win the internet today.
Do you have any background
Do you have any background into how this game came about? FSU was scheduled to play WVU this weekend. WVU bailed for the Big XII and thus FSU had to scramble. Savannah State was free and they linked up to play this game.
If the phone rings, another school calls and says hey come play us on date X, we'll give you enough cash to run a bunch of non-revenue sports for the entire year - you don't turn that down.
according to Wikipedia
savannah states all-time record is 725-2-29 (.978). also have 254 consensus all americans..lol
"I think Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to believe him. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Michigan jerseys is a good start."
Oklahoma State beat Savannah
Oklahoma State beat Savannah State 84-0 because they had dedicated the game to their defensive coordinator, who was in the hospital. Oklahoma State refused to call off the dogs even after building a huge lead because they were trying to notch a shutout in his honor. That won't be the case when FSU plays Savannah State.
If FSU only wins by 60 points
If FSU only wins by 60 points that will be such an upset
I can see it now:
UPSET ALERT
I can see it now:
UPSET ALERT scrolling along the bottom of the screen, Florida State up 60-0 with two minutes left
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing” - Bo Schembechler
I am 100% confident I could
I am 100% confident I could QB for FSU that game and still win. I'm also the guy that tells people, "I could of made that throw" when Denard goes all - well, Denard on us.
Professor X is our defensive coordinator.
You should of
You should of
Someone needs to calculate about how many first downs they need to get while chewing up the max amount of clock to only lose 70-0. It can't be that many.
Ballsy move on Vegas' part.