OT - Quality of Big 10 Football as Expressed by Round 1 of Draft
I realize the sample size (1 round of 1 year of a draft) is tiny but reviewing the 1st round of last night's draft is pretty damning for Big 10 football. The degradation of play overall has been pretty obvious on the football field lately even correcting for Michigan's fall under the RR era - i.e. last year Ohio barely squeaked by Indiana and the average Purdue Illinois Iowa Minnesota game has become a scary thing to watch.
We can talk about depth all we want but in terms of top end impact NFL players it was a very dour night, especially considering this draft is generally considered weak and the Big 10 could still now show up. There was a grand total of 1 Big 10 player drafted - a lineman from Wisconsin second to last in the round. That was matched by the MAC. And whatever conference Houston is in. Michigan has its own shutout streak of 1st rounders but there was nothing out there from the Ohios, Penn Staters, Nebraskas et al. To put in perspective an average (underachieving?) Florida State team had 3 players alone drafted, North Carolina 2.
Some comparison
SEC - 12 players
PAC 10 - 4 players
BIG 12 - 3 players
ACC - 6 players
The data suggests that the B1G has the best Centers.
Thanks a lot, Lewan.
Seeing how many OTs went last night, does that make Lewan's decision to stay smarter? Or does it make it look worse? Next year he will probably have a lot less competition, but there will also be fewer teams that need an OT.
There will always be teams falling over themselves for elite left tackles, especially as this league becomes ever-increasingly based on having an elite franchise quarterback. If he has the kind of year I think he can easily have, I'd say he's a top 5, possibly top 3 pick. At that point, with the rookie salary cap, the differences aren't all that huge.
Yea and this is also one of the worst draft classes in recent memory.
There are no sure-fire QB prospects...
Not a single RB taken in the first round...
One WR taken in the top-25... and he is 5'8"
This draft class just kind of sucked. That is why every team who isn't a garbage franchise traded down to get picks next year or more picks later in the draft.
If you traded up in this draft and didnt get one of the two tackles, you're an idiot.
If you didn't draft one of the two tackles you were fucked. Simple as that.
So they were good sports and threw the pick away for good measure.
On a player who has played football for two years and has nine total starts, but who had a great workout and is now loved by everyone. That sounds familiar. Considering that they lost both ends, why not go with more of a known commodity like Mingo?
Mingo is 30 lbs lighter and an inch shorter. They might both be pass rushers, but I don't think you can consider them for the same roles.
People love the hype around Mingo, but he's a lightweight for a DE and while he's tall enough, he's not a giant by any means. He strikes me a good deal like Brandon Graham, who has been a disappointment in the pros. And as others have noted, I'd rather bet on a great athlete with limited tape than a guy with a bunch of starts but a lower ceiling. This pick might not work out, but at that position you could entertain any number of equally-questionable options (Mingo, Millner, Ansah).
I would have a hard time respecting your defense in calling SF a garbage franchise.
That's a bit of an overstatement. There aren't any elite game-changers, but this is one of the deeper drafts ever.
Apparently there have been no B1G players taking in the top 10 the last 5 years. So the last 2 top 10 draft picks from the B1G were Jake Long and Vernon Gholston from 2008. And Michigan should help break the streak again with Lewan next year.
April 27th, 2013 at 12:27 PM ^
wow didnt realize that.
Brent Yarina posted the breakdown of the Big Ten in last year's draft (HERE) at its conclusion. The link also contains a breakdown by school and position, but round-by-round, it was:
1st round - 4
2nd round - 7
3rd round - 3
4th round - 5
5th round - 6
6th round - 7
7th round - 9
That makes for a total of 41 players from the Big Ten last year, with 73% of them being drafted in the 4th round or later. In 2011, only 29 players from the Big Ten were drafted, and if anyone can find the distribution, please post it so there is more data (many of the links I found seem to be dead) It will be interesting to see what the dirstribution is this year regardless of the number.
I thought the BIG10 was young this past season. Should be a lot of people getting drafted next year or the year after?
But I understand your point.
If you look at recruiting, the SEC is getting much more of the better talent than is the B1G. Once you move past Michigan and Ohio, there is a very sharp falloff in the level of talent the other B1G schools are bringing on board.
So based on how last night played out, where would have Lewan gone? I'm horribly biased and not well educated on some of the guys, but as good as Fisher is I would have to think that Lewan matches him skill for skill and played a much more difficult schedule during his career.
Would Lewan have gone #1? It seems like he would have been top 7 for sure. The Lions probably draft an OT instead of yet another DE (and one who started 9 games for a mediocre BYU team his entire career).
But there is a similar article over at sbnation. It talks in more of conference footprints, and also goes a little bit into the history, or lack there of, of the Big Ten being shut out in the first round.
All in all, pretty weak showing this year...
April 27th, 2013 at 12:31 PM ^
Nope didnt see the article but am reading it now. Just was an independent thought after seeing the MAC get a player drafted and thinking "where the hell is the Big 10 this year"? Obviously Lewan would have been a top 10 pick if not top 5 but that would have been a grand total of 2. For a "power conference". I didnt see many go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds either.
From 2000-2009, Michigan produced 8 1st rounders, PSU 10, and OSU 16 (!). So, those 3 schools alone were averaging over 3 first rounders a year.
With Michigan and OSU getting their act together, the Big Ten should be much more competitive in the coming years.
And I'm not sure it means much, if anything.
We're probably all in general agreement that the 1997 Michigan team was pretty good and that it wasn't a terrible year for the conference as a whole.
Here's the first round of the 1998 draft, by conference. Ties are broken by the position of the first player picked.
- SEC 10 (Peyton Manning, Fred Taylor, Takeo Spikes, Robert Edwards, Terry Fair, Mo Collins, Alan Faneca, Victor Riley, John Avery, Marcus Nash)
- ACC 7 (Andre Wadsworth, Greg Ellis, Tra Thomas, Keith Brooking, Anthony Simmons, Brian Simmons, Vonnie Holliday)
- Big 12 3 (Grant Wistrom, Jason Peter, R. W. McQuarters)
- Big East 3 (Duane Starks, Tebucky Jones, Donovin Darius)
- Pac Ten 2 (Ryan Leaf, Shaun Williams)
- Big Ten 2 (Charles Woodson, Curtis Enis)
- WAC 2 (Kyle Turley, Kevin Dyson)
- MAC 1 (Randy Moss)
Anyone here think the ACC, top to bottom, was the second best conference in the country? Or that Syracuse was a top-three team?
Odd thing about North Carolina--they had three first rounders that year, but what turned out to be their best NFL player went undrafted. Here's what SI's draft preview had to say about Jeff Saturday:
"Somewhat an overachiever....undersized...has trouble matching up with power NTs that can overwhelm him."
-----
You can do this for just about any season. I'm looking at the 1973 draft now and Purdue had the most first rounders. Good players, too--two pro bowlers and Daryl Stingley. They went 6-5. In 1974 the draft was dominated by Tenessee State--two top-4 picks and 5 of the first 42.
Meh. Last year we had 4 B1G in the first round, and look how "bad" our conference was this year. One draft is such an outlier and not statistically significant. Everyone is way over-reacting.
and most of the good players were juniors/underclassmen. Short from purdue and hankins from OSU were projected as 1st rounders before the combine and senior bowls, so was Lewan but he came back to school. there was a lot of movement over players projected draft spots this year, look at moore from texas a&m he was projected top 5 for some reason now is maybe at the end of the 2nd round.
Between our recruiting and OSU's recruiting, this will change soon enough. It's embarassing, but the circumstances which plagued us and them (and PSU) were pretty unprecedented. Wisconsin and Iowa will have their share of linemen go in the first round every couple of years.
thing. Is kind of a statement about the level of play right now in the conference. I believe this shows you need Michigan to become dominant again for the conference to be considered elite again. Sorry little brother and Illinois - your run of moderate success has to end - it is for the good of the conference.
April 26th, 2013 at 10:01 PM ^
April 26th, 2013 at 10:12 PM ^
/s
It's a down year. It happens. The conference has struggled recruiting elite kids, but I also wonder how much draft position matters compared to actual performance on the field. I mean, the best rookies last year were a kid from Wisconsin (and yes, I know that he played at NC State) in Wilson, a kid born in Japan and from a backwaters-ish program (Baylor) in Griffin III, and a LB from BC who was born in Ohio in Kuechly. Suh was from Portland and played at Nebraska. If anything, Texas has been producing a fair share of elite talent, along with Florida. I think the SEC's recruiting has taken an uptick, and there are some location-specific advantages, but I've always held that part of the upswing in rankings is due to inflation by scouting services focusing in the area. I mean, there is talent in the South, but the disparity at times feels forced.
April 26th, 2013 at 10:06 PM ^
Im shocked that Bell went so early...even earlier than Monte Ball. Denard should have been chosen by now.
April 26th, 2013 at 10:36 PM ^
Not surprising, but 32 SEC players were taken through the first 97 picks. Including nearly all of LSU's defense, of course.
April 26th, 2013 at 11:15 PM ^
You have no idea how many of these guys are going to flame out. For years all the pundits have been pointing out how the SEC dominates the first couple rounds of the draft, yet when you look at starters in the NFL the SEC does anything but dominate. So lets wait and see how these guys work out in the NFL before judging.