OT: Pistons primed for success

Submitted by turtleboy on

 

I'm way too fired up for tomorrows 3:30 kickoff so I'm trying to distract myself with a look at the promising 2012-13 Pistons.
 
With a string of good draft picks, a solid defensive coach, and new ownership, the Pistons look to be in a good position for the playoffs and free agency in the near future.
Last years team performed very poorly offensively in the lockout shortened season, finishing with a near league worst 90.7 ppg, but the silver lining of the 2012 squad was the performance of the younger players, a deep and talented bench, and the teams defense ranking at the middle of the pack. The Pistons managed to hold opposing teams to a respectable 95.7 ppg, rating 14th out of 30 teams, and slightly above the likes of LA, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City. The solid defense was managed despite a revolving door at the power forward position. Jonas Jerebko, Jason Maxiell, and Ben Wallace took turns starting, and were key factors contributing to both the Pistons solid defensive efforts, and poor offensive performance. Maxiell averaged 6.7ppg starting, Jerebko around 9 points in under 23mpg, Wallace only 1.4ppg on the season.
 
Despite finishing so low offensively, only a mere 7 ppg seperated Detroits 28th place offense, and the top 10. If the Pistons had 5 solid starters averaging at least 12ppg last season instead of 4, and the benches 3pt% hadn't fallen off so sharply, they would've finished ahead of every Eastern Conference playoff team except Miami in total offense, every playoff team in the West except Dallas and the Clippers in total defence, and likely made the playoffs. Joe D has seemingly addressed that in the most recent draft, taking Center Andre Drummond in the first round. Still something of a raw prospect he looks to have the most upside of any of the 2012 draftees as one of the only true Center stars in recent years. He flashed his potential this preseason against Milwaukee shooting 9-13 for 19 pts with 10 rebounds and 2 blocks. Next against a Dwight-less Orlando he managed an impressive 4 blocks. Once he adjusts to the NBA game, and gets comfortable with his size, he has the potential to be a rookie of the year contender, and may very well be Detroits 5th player in 6 years to make the All Rookie team after Rodney Stuckey, Jonas Jerebko, Greg Monroe, and Brandon Knight. Rookies Kyle Singler, Kim English, and Khris Middleton are creating some buzz and could potentially vie for a spot on this years All Rookie team as well.
 
The other factor that shows promise for Detroits future is the recent signing of veteran Corey Maggette to a 1 year contract. He's easily an upgrade at SG replacing Ben Gordon for the year, but picking up his $10m contract also shows that the new owner is willing to spend some money on the team, and doesn't want to write years off rebuilding. Detroits 2012-13 salary runs 13th overall at $67 million dollars. Next year things get interesting money wise when a potential $32 million dollars will get freed up from peripheral players, and non-contributors like Maguette, Hamilton, Villanueva, Maxiell, and Bynums contracts ending. We'll still have a playoff potential team intact, and 11 players under contract, but with an incredibly low $25 million pricetag. If Toms Gores is fine with spending $67 million on the team, then imagine what $32 million can buy you in free agency. Even after resigning key Pistons out of their rookie contracts we should be able to make a great push for several players, and at least one max contract after this postseason.
 
Team, and player salary reference: http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm
 
It'll be fun to watch Brandon Knight develop as a sophomore PG, Greg Monroe moving to PF, and teaming with Andre Drummond in the frontcourt this year. They'll need a nickname because they're going to dominate the paint in the NBA. 

FatGuyLittleCoat

October 19th, 2012 at 5:12 PM ^

The Central division, I feel, is going to be very, very good in the future. The Bulls are the big name right now, but I foresee an extremely competitive division for a long time. The Pacers are only getting better. The Cavs and Pistons are young but very talented. The Bucks will be decent as well. I'm excited for the future of the Central division

mzdmv

October 19th, 2012 at 5:14 PM ^

Have we reached a consensus on how to root for players on your favorite team that went to a rival/hated school?

I just noticed that Kyle Singler is on the Pistons and since everyone hates Duke, how do you root for him? I guess it's a little easier since he's just a role player but when it's important players, what do you do?

This happened to me a few weeks ago when RGIII got knocked out of the Redskins game and Kirk Cousins came in. I had no idea how to react. I just couldn't root for the Skins and Cousins at the same time.

robbyt003

October 19th, 2012 at 5:36 PM ^

I don't think Drummond is going to start right away, if at all this season.  He will definitely play, but I see him coming off the bench initially.  

SFBlue

October 19th, 2012 at 5:42 PM ^

Brandon Knight may develop, but my view is that the Pistions look more like a lottery team than a playoff team at this point. 

I watched Maggette a lot when he was a Clipper and I lived in LA; he is not a guy that will fit a 'defense first' team mentality, and he is prone to taking bad shots.  Other than him, and perhaps Monroe, I don't see that Detroit has a consistent scoring threat.  Detroit's recent draft picks would have been great if the team had a core of All-Stars to build around (which at one point, not too long ago, it did); with the possible exception of Knight, which is stretch given the wealth of talent at his position, I do not see any recent picks developing into stars in the NBA.

That said, I hope I am wrong.  What I perhaps miss most about the middle years of the last decade was watching the Pistons play team ball deep into the playoffs. 

Sambojangles

October 19th, 2012 at 5:45 PM ^

I was never an NBA fan, but the Pistons runs from '04-'08 got me hooked, though I stopped caring when they got bad (trading Chauncey did it for me). If this team is as promising as you say, maybe I'll start watching them a little more closely, especially come playoff time.

The only thing I hate about the NBA is how star-focused it is. It seems like a complete team never stands much of a chance against a team with one (or two or three) big star. I guess I'm just bitter from all the playoff series of Dwayne Wade, Lebron, or the Boston Big 3 overpower the Pistons. That's what, IMO, separates the NCAA from the NBA.

TTUwolverine

October 19th, 2012 at 5:57 PM ^

But I won't lie, this is the most optimistic Pistons preview I've encountered in the last 5 seasons. I don't buy it, but that's because the last few seasons have made me cranky. Here's to proving me wrong.

JCV16

October 19th, 2012 at 6:05 PM ^

We have one good player, 2 guys with potential, and cap space in future years. Just like all other non contenders. No good FA will come here.

turtleboy

October 19th, 2012 at 7:06 PM ^

We got swept out of the playoffs before he came, too. The Pistons winning a Championship likely wasn't on anyones radar, even when the Pistons were playing in it they were huge underdogs. Appeal has something to do with Free Agency, but next year, and the year after, all the appeal destinations like LA, and Miami, Brooklyn, and New York are already full of big contracts. A team like Golden State is overloaded with contracts right now, and Atlanta is trending in the wrong direction. If we have success this season we might be able to offer a better postseason and much better money to someone like  Josh Smith, or Steph Curry.

turtleboy

October 19th, 2012 at 6:11 PM ^

I think Stucky and Jerebko will be career role players on a good team, or starters on an average  team. I think it'll be Drummond, Monroe, Knight as the future of the team, with the deep bench of role-players behind them. We need a piece or two to be contenders, but we have enough now to be a playoff team. We should definitely be able to eclipse the Hawks, the Magic, the Sixers, and maybe the Knicks this year. Even Boston will have a tough time staying competetive without Ray Allen, and their bench players like Davis departing, and teams like Brooklyn coming together.

I agree that Drummond might not start right away, and will have an adjustment period, but as soon as he's not a liability for fouling out he's a clear choice to start over Maxiell, or Jerebko, or Daye, or Singler, or Charlie V alongside Monroe.

cadmus2166

October 19th, 2012 at 6:28 PM ^

It just seems too optimistic to me at this point, given how bad the Pistons have been the past few seasons.  I'm guessing they will have far more success at attaining a lottery pick this season than making the playoffs.

turtleboy

October 19th, 2012 at 6:50 PM ^

There are alot of "ifs" involved in this thoery, no doubt, but last year was supposed to be much worse than it was. We basically played a season with 4 starters, 1 of them a rookie, 2 of them sophomores, and a new head coach, all without an offseason and preseason to practice with. Almost all of the success I envision them having is based on 2 things: young players improving, and the overall team improving. They don't need to improve in giant leaps, they just need to take small incrimental steps. A 5th starter and slightly better team play over last year can get the 6-7 ppg and slightly improved defense they need to surpass all the other Eastern Conference playoff teams that are taking steps in the wrong direction.

Tater

October 19th, 2012 at 6:37 PM ^

Once again, the Pistons need to sandbag.  They should spend the entire year devloping younger players.  They should also give all of the young guys a lot of playing time, and thus allow them to play themselves in or out of the Pistons' future plans.  

One more lottery pick and a couple of key free agents, combined with a solid, young core, could position the Pistons to have another "up" period for a few years.  Joe Dumars has taken a lot of heat, but he has also had a direct hand in every NBA Championship the Pistons have ever won.  

I wouldn't bet against him doing another great rebuilding job, similar to the one he did after the Grant Hill sign-and-trade.

BeileinBuddy

October 19th, 2012 at 6:47 PM ^

I agree with this. This year should be used to further develop Knight, Monroe, and Drummond. Drummond should be a starter. Play the rooks. It's better to be bad and young than to be bad and old.

We don't want playoffs because then our first round pick goes to Charlotte as part of the Gordon-Maggette trade. 

Magnum P.I.

October 19th, 2012 at 6:43 PM ^

Sadly, we have a bunch of okay players and no difference-makers. That's going to be par for the course in Detroit basketball for the foreseeable future, I'm afraid. We'll stumble into the playoffs once in a while on work ethic alone, but that's it. 

It needs to be acknowledged that the stars aligned for Joe D when he put that 2003-2008 team together. Struck gold on Rip, Chauncey, Prince, Ben Wallace (!), and Rasheed. The coincidence of that kind of luck will not happen again. 

We get excited about guys like Knight and Monroe, but you don't build teams around guys like that. They're third- or fourth-best players on good teams. 

GRBluefan

October 19th, 2012 at 6:49 PM ^

A very optimistic person. I like our direction, bug this team is far from good right now (though that could be irrelevant as far as getting an 8 seed in the east)

French West Indian

October 19th, 2012 at 7:14 PM ^

I'm excited about them and the east is looking pretty weak so I think they can win it.  But beating LA in the Finals is probably a bit of a reach this season.

Go Pistons!

gajensen

October 19th, 2012 at 7:18 PM ^

I'm optimistic.

Monroe could easily be in the discussion for second best center in the conference next season, behind Philly's Andrew Bynum.  Even if he never improves from here on out, 18/11 per 36 minutes is solid production out of the pivot.

Andre Drummond, honestly, reminds me so much of Greg Oden.  I don't know how Oden would have developed had he stayed healthy, but their physiques and athletic ability are eerily similar.  As Dumars said, if you look at Drummond as a piece of clay to be molded, we got the best piece of clay in the entire draft.

I don't think Monroe is in any way a PF, but there's something to be said about having two strong centers on the roster and on the floor at the same time.  It worked for the Spurs, it worked for several teams in the past, and I love that the Pistons aren't falling for the small-ball fad that is going around the league.

Knight may never be more than an average-to-borderline-top-10 starting point guard in a golden age for the position (seriously, Wall/Irving/Rondo/Deron Williams/Paul/Rubio/Rose/and more), but that's okay.  I just need him to not be a liability and complement his backcourt mates.  There was nobody from that draft that we passed on that I'd rather have than him.

Shooting guard isn't really a top heavy position league-wide anymore.  You have Kobe, Wade, and...?  Stuckey seems to be doing very well at SG and all of a sudden his passing goes from mediocre to a huge strength with the position switch.  There was a stretch to end last season where he was essentially a 20-5-5 guy, and that's not too bad considering not many teams are getting much more from their 2s.

I like Jerebko.  I like Singler. I hate Maxiell and I hate Daye.  SF and PF will have to be figured out as Tayshaun declines (even more) and Maxiell loses his job (please God), but we have four of our top five starters figured out and our 6th/7th men figured out.

mackbru

October 19th, 2012 at 8:06 PM ^

I think your optimism, while admirable, is excessive. The Pistons have a handful o solid young players. But there's really no top-tier talent, with the possible exception of Monroe. Drummond is still a few years away. This isn't a playoff team. And I don't think anyone in the league sees it differently.

gajensen

October 19th, 2012 at 8:37 PM ^

I'd put a humble sum of money on them making the playoffs.

Last season they started 4-20 and finished 21-21.  .500 basketball generally gives you a shot at the playoffs in the NBA.  

When you consider
a)the assumed growth that should come with experience from Monroe and Knight,
b) the benefits of switching Stuckey to a more natural role and him approaching his prime
c) the addition by subtraction of trading away an underachieving and unhappy and expensive Ben Gordon
d) We're replacing 33 year old Damien Wilkins and 38 year old Ben Wallace in the rotation with Kyle Singler and Slava Kravtsov/Andre Drummond, respectively,
e) finally some semblance of coaching stability with Lawrence Frank...

I'd say we're in decent shape if last season's finish carries over.

lilpenny1316

October 19th, 2012 at 11:23 PM ^

Big-time free agents aren't coming to Detroit, or more accurately, Auburn Hills.  They want to go where it's warm or there's a nightlife.  The only way for teams like Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota and Indiana to win are by building through the draft, trades and under the radar free agent signings.  The biggest free agent signing for the 04-08 Pistons was McDyess and they took a chance on him and his achy knees.

I don't know how good of a coach Frank is, but this is a young team with promise.  They just need to be smart with their free agent signings the next time they have a ton of cap space available.

M-Wolverine

October 19th, 2012 at 11:30 PM ^

Maggette wasn't signed for the money, he was part of the trade. And really only for cap reasons and the expiring contract. He hasn't been healthy in ages. Charlie V's contract isn't up in the off season; he has another year. Though he may get amnestied. Bottom teams are o bad tey have an outside shot at making the playoffs, but it wouldn't necessarily be good for the tem. They still haven't won the lottery, and they're still going to need to land a superstar. The League isn't going to let you win without one again. They're getting the parts to put a killer team around a star, but don't have one, and avent shown any ability to sign one (Raheed was a trade; when we had all the cash in the biggest free agent class ever we ended up with Gordon and Charlie. Yay.) And no, guys like Josh Smith and Steph Curry are not guys who make the Pistons a championship team. They're not guys you build a team around. They could be number two guys. The Pistons need a str or they're headed for NBA limbo always making the playoffs so they can't draft a star, but never having one to make the more than a second round exit.

bacon1431

October 20th, 2012 at 11:13 AM ^

If the Pistons succeed in the NBA, it'll be the same formula they used with the Ben Wallace-Billups-Rip-Sheed-Tay formula. Luckily, I really like the foundation they have right now. Knight has a great work ethic so I expect him to continue to develop. Monroe will be good for 16&10 every night and if Drummond can develop, he'll be a force on defense. Any offense he adds will be a bonus. There are still a few holes as Tay is not going to get any better and has been on his way down. Stuckey is not a starter in this league. He can be a very good 6th man. Can spell at the point and the 2 guard. Love Jerebko off the bench as well. This formula will require Joe Dumars to be real diligent in scouting and free agent signings. I don't know if they'll win an NBA championship with this group in the future, but I think they can be real exciting and win some playoff series in a few years.

michigan0101

October 20th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^

The detroit pistons are definitely primed for success. I really like the idea that coach Frank is approaching in the preseason by starting a different group every night. However, once Drummond becomes our starting center he should stay in the lineup. I really believe he has a lot of potential, maybe he wont drop jaws as a rookie but he definitely looks like he is headed in the right direction. Players really don't give it their all in the preseason but drummond is which is a good sign considering he had motor issues coming into the draft. I believe a lot of piston fans are over-hyping him but the sooner him and monroe are on the court together the better it is for the chemistry development.

As for this years expectations, I believe they should contend for the 8th final spot in the eastern conference. Unfortunately, the east became a lot deeper with teams like Washington adding okafor and ariza, milwakee gaining more experience with the newly added monte ellis, toronto finally bringing in valacaniunas and trading for kyle lowry.

As for the next off-season I think the pistons will have somewhat over 20mil in cap space to spend, some of the that money will go to greg monroe's extension. The remaining money can be used on a player like andre iguoudala and josh smith especially if none of the small forwards on our team can prove they can consistently play the 3 for 82 games. That being said, I think tayshaun will be traded at the trade deadline to relieve some cap space and a team that is in the contention spot would love to add someone like the veteran savy tayshaun prince.

GO BLUE