OT: New poll numbers: U-M vs. Sparty support, Fab Five, Chris Webber
I’ve periodically posted numbers from robo-pollster Public Policy Polling on Michigan athletics. They released some new figures on Friday that I wanted to share.
First, more Michiganders – 39 percent – said they were Michigan fans, versus 26 percent who said they considered themselves more fans of Sparty. Thirty-five percent expressed no opinion. For context from past PPP polls:
Q: Do you consider yourself to be more of a Michigan or Michigan State fan?
- Michigan 39
- Michigan State 26
- Not sure 35
- Michigan 41
- Michigan State 31
- Not sure 28
- Michigan 37
- Michigan State 31
- Not a fan of either school 32 (*differently worded question/response options)
If the numbers in the most recent poll are accurate, and not an outlier, they would seem to suggest slight erosion in support for Sparty.
The most recent poll also tested numbers on Michigan basketball history, particularly the Fab Five.
Twenty-three percent of Michigan adults said they had a positive opinion of the Fab Five as a whole, versus 12 percent who had an unfavorable opinion. Sixty-four percent were unsure.
But as U-M weighs whether to formally re-associate itself with the Fab Five on May 8, Chris Webber, the player who arguably suffers from the most strained relationship with the university, faces more mixed opinion.
Fourteen percent of Michiganders said they had a favorable impression of Webber, versus 15 percent who had a negative impression of him. Seventy-one percent were unsure.
Lastly, as baseball season approaches, the poll also tested support for the Tigers in the state. Sixty-eight percent of Michigan’s adults consider themselves fans of the Tigers, versus 17 percent who aren’t and 15 percent who are unsure.
The poll was conducted through automated telephone interviews – which are considered by most news organizations to be inferior to live response phone interviews – from March 2-4. PPP says the poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.
Did we win?
What I'd be curious to know is along these lines:
"Do you generally consider yourself more of a Michigan or Michigan State fan?"
If they answer neither/unsure, I'd be interested in a follow up question like
"If you were required to pick an affiliation with Michigan or Michigan State, which would you choose?"
I am always amazed by how many people respond "not sure" or "undecided". I am convinced that if the poll question was "Do you think the sky is blue or green", 23% would say "not sure".
Come on people, have an opinion.
that they choose the only slot available when they do not feel strongly allied with one or the other of two alternatives given? They could be ND fans, or not care about sports, or a million other things that have nothing to do with lacking opinions. This actually gives you a third insight--x% of people are not wrapped up in the rivalry.
Believe it or not, the sky over Ann Arbor was green once. On July 16, 1980, a squall line went over the Ann Arbor/Detroit area. Winds were over 100 mph. The rain was sideways, as were most unsecured objects.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stories/1980derecho.php
In other words, there isn't always a definitive answer to "is the sky blue or green?"
of Gridley, Illinois once. The sky around it was green.
Thanks for posting this, BlueinDC. I also follow PPP and they always include some unorthodox questions along with the standard political fare.
One possible caveat to these numbers: I believe that PPP just tacks on the sports queries to the end of its normal questioning, which means that they've already applied a registered voter screen. If the number of undecided/indifferent fans seems abnormally high, remember that this is not a poll of the Michigan population, it's a poll of registered voters who are willing to stay on the phone and answer a slew of political questions from a machine.
Still very interesting numbers, but good to read them in context.
Going back a little further, at the end of RR's tenure the Michigan and MSU figures were equal, IIRC.
The breakdown by age group is interesting:
18-29 - 61% Michigan, 6% Michigan State, 33% Not Sure
30-45 - 36% Michigan, 25% Michigan State, 39% Not Sure
It's similar for 46 to 65, then it is a dead heat between the two schools once you get to 65 and older. Fab Five favorability increases some with each age group until you hit the oldest group, and it is lowest with the youngest group. It seems like an overwhelming majority in each group answer "not sure" regarding Webber too.
That 18-29 breakdown can't be correct, can it? How could we have ten times as many fans in that age group?
Look at us. How could it be wrong?
The crosstabs in a poll like this might not have a high enough number of respondents to be statistically significant.
Pollsters tend to get very small samples of younger voters.
I'm smack in the middle of that demo and I know nobody that has a land line. I would not at all be surprised to see very unreliable stats for any poll that involves calling people.
I have performed many polls and surveys on this board as well as professionally. Pollsters typically have two agendas: 1) push their opinion (political) and 2) garner support (ie ratings, followers) by trying to convince people that they (pollster, company etc) know what they are doing and are experts.
Now, the most reliable and well known pollsters (USA Today, CNN, Time, Pew Research, Fox News) dont have agendas but these are the exception and not the rule.
The sampling method is very critical with polls. Remember Dewey defeats Truman? In Statistics Class we had to disect the 1946 Presidential Election. The Chicago newspaper performed a telephone poll and their sampling showed that Republican Dewey won by a significant margin so the newspaper ran with the story thinking that the margin of victory was too great and would overcome sampling error.
The reason was simple. In 1946 mostly wealthy people could afford house, land-line phones. Wealthy people are dominately Republican. So the conclusion is that people with land line phones are Republican.
The same logic applies here. Most younger (under 30) people do not have land-line phones. So if a poll is conducted using traditional land-line phones then the sampling will be skewed toward older people. Now pollsters will try to ask for the age of the respondant and try to balance this out. However this method is NOT a true "Random Sample". This is why there is no poll that is perfect.
Easy... UNIFORMZ
David Brandon.
...or maybe their fans just wear Sparty shirts all the time so it appears they have a big army.
They have have almost twice as many students on campus, so I'm surprised their numbers as so low.
I created fake accounts and voted multiple times for Michigan.
Boom, Denarded.
for me to conclude that "support for Sparty is waining". It could be sampling error. More information is needed: sample size, randomness of the respondants, method of sampling, etc.
However, if multiple polls are taken over time in a repeated method, the higher the confidence. Are the recent values a trend or are they measurement error? Where on the Bell Curve does each data point lie? This is actually a fun and interesting science.