OT Navigating the Zika panic
I literally have not posted on this site in 3 years and 41 weeks (though I read it daily). I know that Zika virus has been mentioned on this site previously, but with The Games starting in a couple of days, I wanted to share an article that I just published called "Navigating the Zika Panic." The hype about the virus and the Olympics has been filled with over-speculation and fear-mongering, some at the fault of "experts", but mostly by the media. Even some of the comments posted on this site were totally off base. Here are my assessments (from someone who actually studies the Zika virus epidemic and has spent 7+ years researching mosquito-borne viruses):
- Yes, the Zika virus epidemic is a major public health concern.
- There is a risk for athletes and visitors traveling to the Olympics to become infected with Zika virus, though it is astonishingly low (like 1:30,000 to 1000,000 people during the three weeks).
- While the individual risk to become infected with Zika virus is low, women who are pregnant or are expecting to become pregnant should not travel to any Zika virus endemic area (essentially, any non-zero risk for a developing fetus is too high). This includes men with pregnant partners, though we are not sure if sexual transmission of Zika virus can result in birth defects. This is justifiably why Harbaugh cancelled his camp in American Samoa.
- With only 5 to 80 visitors expected to become infected (based on some really good models), the impact of the Olympics to further spread Zika virus in minimal.
- There is currently no evidence that the Zika virus strain circulating in the Americas is more severe than any other strains circulating in Asia and Africa. The reason for the severe pathologies are likely the size of the epidemic - rare events require a large sample size.
If you would like to read more, here is the full article:
http://f1000research.com/articles/5-1914/v1
And the "CliffsNotes" version (an online interview):
http://blog.f1000research.com/2016/08/04/the-games-must-go-on-navigatin…
Go Blue!
Nathan D. Grubaugh, M.S., Ph.D.
Now how about something useful like navigating a herpes outbreak
They are removing water from their blood meal so they can take in more.
at Golden Corral
You make Peggy sad.
Yeah, I saw that. Trying to figure out what the hell that was.
+1 Informative
DAMMIT - beaten by mere seconds on the "more you know" gif
So here's a kitten instead....
+1 Kitten
+1 "+1 Kitten"
Yeah I bit.
I have seen the movie Outbreak wheretofor I have reason to believe that your "analysis" and "research" is no match for the mosquitoes.
Nor will it as it will be irrelevant in three weeks.
Actually, most of the article is not about the Olympics, but it may become irrelevant anyways as new info becomes available.
don't put too much stock into "opinion" and "peer review" in this case. We published it here instead of a big journal so that it would be open access and immediately available. This journal, F1000, only allows "Review" articles to be submitted by invitation. Instead, they told us to publish as an "opinion" as a work-around because they wanted it. Peer review for articles like these will not likely result in much change (not like they will suggest new experiments). So in my expert opinion, these are the facts.
They are a formidable opponent.
Double posting
What a great day on the board - we had a thread about Alize and now Zima gets brought up. What a horrible, horrible malt beverage. It was clear though, so I guess it has that going for it. Damn, I miss high school.
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You are correct. That is just my general caveat about the risks of Zika infection for pregnant women because the consequences can be so severe. Sitting in your home in the US (unless you are in South Florida), you essentially have a zero risk of Zika virus infection. Go to Brazil, and it is still really low, but why risk it?
If your wife were pregnant would you "reasonably and ethically" let her go to Rio?
I agree with the good Dr. - anything above zero for my wife is too much to warrant the trip.
Theoretically ever time you put your kids in a car it is the most dangerous thing you are ever letting them do.
The difference is, generally there is a reason for a pregnant woman or your kids to be in a car, and you can't live your life wrapped in bubble wrap, afraid of everything. But unless they are actually PARTICIPATING in the Olympics (or you work for a company and are forced to do business there), there is pretty much no reason for any American to be in Rio.
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By "shed" I am assuming that you mean "no longer infectious". We don't really know, it can be detected in the semem for 50+ days. I'd wait 2-3 months to be safe.
"We believe that the death toll may be in the hundreds of millions. Beaverton has only a population of about 8,000, Tom, so this would be quite devastating."
Any word on how the survivors in town are doing Mitch?
"We're not sure what exactly is going on inside of the town of Beaverton, Tom, but we're reporting that there's looting, raping and yes, even acts of cannibalism."
My god, you've actually seen people looting, raping and eating each other?!
"No, no we haven't actually seen it Tom, we're just reporting it."
What are your thoughts on the "outbreak" going on in Florida (Miami) and what are the risks there? Unlike in Brazil, it's actually summer there and seems to be some threatening articles out lately about travel.
Is the risk still very low if say, someone travels to and hangs around Wynwood (dining/entertainment district area where they found it) for a week?
I am actually trying to sequence Zika virus from the clinical cases in Florida to see if they really are locally aquired. If it is, then there could be a small outbreak (100-1000s) in Miami. The risk is very low for any one person over the span of a week. I'd go there and not be worried, but i would not send my pregenant wife.
See another post below. December should be okay but stick with the current CDC advisories. I have mostly agreed with them up to this point.
Disclaimer: I know nothing about this.
1. How do you reconcile your claims in 1 and 2? How can the Zika virus epidemic be considered a major public health concern if the infection rates are astonishingly low?
2. Was your rate of infection in #2 measured across the entire population or adjusted to account for those in which microcephaly and other horrible outcomes are possible? i.e. those that are pregnant, likely to become pregnant, or able to transmit the disease to someone who might become pregnant?
3. So you're saying that the strain of Zika in South America isn't worse than in Asia and Africa because South America has more people... than Asia?