OT: My NBA free agency predictions
The LA Clippers win the LeBron sweepstakes. They despite what Bulls homers like that blogger frankthewank think, the Clips are the best fit for LeBron. With LeBron in the fold the Clips could potentially have the best starting 5 in the league. The Bulls have a nice piece with Rose but that's not enough and nothing near what LA has to offer.
PG Baron Davis
SG Eric Gordon
SF LeBron
PF Blake Griffin
C Chris Kaman
The Heat keep Wade in south beach and should be able to reel in Chris Bosh as well.
The Knicks, despite what New Yorkers and ESPN think. Nobody around the rest of the country (including most big name FAs) gives a rat's ass about the Knicks. But D'antonio (no not the one at the farm school in East Lansing. The other guy with the stache, note: if this comment is over your head please do not respond. Thank You!) should be able to reel in a couple of familiar faces that love playing in that run n gun offense of his. They land Amare and Joe Johnson.
The Bulls are left holding the bag here, They end up settling for Carlos Boozer or Jermaine O'neal. Whichever one they decide to overpay.
The Mavs are able to keep Dirk
The Cavs sign T-Mac or Haslem or something.
As for the rest of the Free Agents that are left. Who Cares?
Not a particularly "in-the-loop" NBA fan because I'm from DC and...well.... our best player likes to get into gun fights during halftime. Although hopefully Wall is the real deal and actually helps the franchise unlike our last #1 pick Kwame Brown. However, if you already assume the Heat resign Wade and reel in Chris Bosh, why exactly are they not a better fit for Lebron? As I understand it they actually have enough cap room for all 3 of those guys now with some recent dumpings and I fail to see how the starting 5 you just named would be a better group than Bosh, Wade, Lebron, and whoever the other 2 would be (Chalmers?...O'Neal?)
Alot of this is based off recent news reports. The Clippers got invited to the LeBron party late. That should tell you something. Also it sounds like Wade is done trying to convince LeBron to come there. And Bosh to the Heat in a sign n trade deal sounds like it's picking up steam.
Since you can only really name 3 out of the 5 for Miami it's safe to say that the Clippers hypothetical starting 5 would be better.
They only have 3 players currently signed on their roster. If you're gonna parade around here like you know what's going on atleast pay attention.
That's his point. If you add Wade, LeBron and Bosh to those nobodiessigned right now (minus Beasley) it'd be a three man starting five with some JV players thrown in. No need to be such a dick
I disagree completely. I think Bosh and Wade along with 2 marginal talents like Chalmers and Jermaine O'Neal are significantly better than a past-his-prime Baron Davis, an unproven Blake Griffin, and two players who are good but not great in Gordon and Kaman.
LeBron still has 4 years college eligibility. Maybe he'll go back and try to win a title that way...
Haha! Your Avatar is incredible. Almost laughed out loud at my desk.
you are thinking of. As far as I know, Dantonio does not coach in the NBA.
Damn you, In Rod. But any guy who gets confused about coaches probably doesn't know what's really going on. FWIW, I say LeBron ends up with New Jersey/Brooklyn. They've got a new Russian gazillionaire owner, a pretty good point guard in Jamir Nelson and a real post talent in Lopez.
I think the PG you are thinking of is Devin Harris. As far as I know:
1. Jameer Nelson
2. PG on the Orlando Magic
You've never seen/heard someone call Mark Dantonio either D'antoni or D'antonio? Hell I do it almost everytime I mention his name. It's kind of a dig to act as if you don't know his name and treat him like he's nobody.
Hahaha, I don't know the correct spelling of your coach's name and get him confused with an NBA coach! ZING YOUR PROGRAM IS WORTHLESS.
Seriously now, how does that make anybody but you look bad?
zinger is lost on me. I don't see how that would be any better than some WVU hick telling me "Good luck with Dick Fraud".
You also noticed I used the D' infront of the antonio right? I know the difference. Just adding a little humor to it. Mike D'antoni, Mark Dantonio can get easily mixed up. It also pisses some Sparty fans off when you don't say their coach's name correctly.
Kind of like your Notre "Lame" thing in your sig. You get it?
I can't see LeBron going to the Clippers with all the negativity that constantly surrounds their dipshit owner, Donald Sterling.
I dont know why anyone who can choose who to play for would play for someone with such shady/racist business practices as sterling.
Or why you would willingly go to be Second Banana in a city with such an established 1-2 dynamic in Basketball
My Predictions:
LeBron - Chicago (2nd - Nets, 3rd - Knicks, 4th - Heat, 5th - Clippers)
Wade - Miami (lock)
Bosh - Miami (2nd - Chicago)
Amare - New York (2nd - Chicago)
Joe Johnson - Atlanta (2nd - New York, 3rd - Chicago)
Carlos Boozer will head to Miami if Bosh doesn't go there. If that doesn't work, he might head to Chicago - or any place that will pay him max money (Nyets).
David Lee will end up back in NYC if Amare passes - and if not - he could really go anywhere. Same with Rudy Gay.
(FYI I love it that the TWolves are chasing Gay when they drafted a ton of SF's, and Lee - when they have Jefferson and Love. Also, potential for the Gay-Love era in Minny is intense.)
Boozer will get a max deal. Boozer is a top rate #3 guy.
He sure as hell can't be a #1 option that max money is for.
Utah didn't go very far with Boozer as the #2 with Deron Williams.Although that may be more of the team after those 2 than him not being able to be a good #2.
He'll probably make #2 money, but no way in hell he gets max.
Let's do the math here (based on an article found here: http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-freeagency-100629/cap-room…):
Teams that can offer 2 max contracts: Knicks, Heat (assuming Wade is not a done deal)
Teams that can offer 1 max contract: Nets, Bulls, Clippers, Dallas (with Dirk opting out), Atlanta
That's 9 max contracts out there at a minimum. There could be more if teams shift money around (e.g., Bulls trade Deng, some team currently with 0 max contracts available makes a move).
Now, the guaranteed max guys (4):
Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Dirk
The "probably not worth the max, but could get it anyway" group (3):
Joe Johnson, Amare, Boozer
The third group (4):
Pierce, David Lee, Rudy Gay, Ray Allen
So, knowing that NBA GM's typically have a terrible track record when it comes to contracts (insert "player x's expiring contract" here in trade talks), you're going to tell me that the top 7 guys (including the "shouldn't get max money but will" players of Amare, Johnson, and Boozer) aren't going to all get max money when there are 7 teams and 9 spots available?
Supply and demand, man. Boozer will get paid.
Excellent work, and your logic is dead on.
If the Knicks screw this up in a "Joe Johnson max and DLee" kind of way, I'm officially declaring myself a free agent. 10 years of watching terrible basketball is enough.
Thank you.
If I were a Knicks fan like you, I'd pray that Joe Johnson takes the money from Atlanta. And I think he will (they can offer him an extra year / more money, and he's already proven that he will take money over wins - he moved from PHX to ATL a few years back).
Except PHI didn't want to resign him because they didn't want to pay him what he deserved because they were over the salary cap already, so they low balled him, ensuring that he would never sign there. It was the Suns' fault that they don't have JJ, not JJ's.
Boozer will get paid, but suggesting Ray Allen will sniff a max contract is ridiculous. He's 35, there's no way any NBA team can think he's going to be productive for more than a couple more years...
I never said Ray Allen, PP, etc. would get a max contract.
I was just showing the talent pool of FA's (ESPN's Chad Ford has them ranked - it's pretty similar to his). Clearly, no way Ray Allen gets the max, but a guy like Boozer most certainly can (and probably will).
Ray Allen should not be on that list, he's pretty much destined for the MLE on a contender.
I just don't see Boozer as being a Pippen to someones Jordan. I can see him as a Lamar Odom (very gifted #3 player that does alot for his team but can't be someone that carries them)
You're probably right that GMs are going to overpay him, I just don't think he's max contract worthy and should probably be in your third group. /shrug
Lebron to Chicago
Bosh Wade in Miami
Dirk to the Mavs
Joe Johnson and Amare to the Knicks to reunite with D'antoniweiss
There is absolutely NO WAY Lebron would actually get in the same building as Donald Sterling. Personally I think Lebron is Greg Norman. More talent than anyone, but he's so focused on everything besides basketball that he'll be a career underachiever. Norman should have won 20 majors and he won 2.
Read as: "We are such a pathetic organization that we're honored to sit down and have lunch with a guy who wouldn't play for us in a million years."
The Knicks owner is a completely incompetent fool, but at least he's not a racist. LeBron would be insane to go play for a franchise that makes the Knicks look like the Celtics.
of this Lebron free agency stuff. As soon as he got knocked out of the playoffs espn.com had an entire page dedicated to him, with a countdown to free agency. Complety unnecessary. We're gonna start hearing the Brett Favre stories too. GAH. I hate it.
As you can probably tell from even the activity on this board, aside from the World Cup - the sports world is not exactly booming with stories right now.
And, this is a pretty big deal for the NBA. It's not just Lebron - it's Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Dirk, JJohnson, Amare, Boozer, Gay, etc. The best free agent pool in the NBA since I can remember.
Also, the Favre thing has happened each of the past years. It's tired and old. The "Summer of Lebron" is a one time only thing.
Yet, as the ESPN SportsCenter introduction to their free agency show proves, reporters have been asking Lebron questions about his free agency since at least 2008. So at some point it gets tiring and old even if its a "one-time-only" event.
It's a huge deal for the NBA, with all those free agents moving around and stuff, but ESPN insists on riding the Lebron band wagon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/feature/index?page=LeBron-Tracker). A Lebron Tracker? Really ESPN? If they were a true sports network, then talk about all the free agents the same amount, or a little more evenly, and don't concentrate on what will get you the most ratings or hits on their site.
It seems that everyone is forgetting the fact that there is a good chance Lebron stays in Cleveland. They have a good owner who will (at some point) bring in talent to surround Lebron. I think he is too attached to the worst state ever to leave.
As for the rest:
Wade/Bosh: Miami
Joe Johnson: Atlanta
Amare: Knicks
Boozer: Bulls
Dirk: Dallas
that LBJ isn't coming back to Cleveland. They don't have much cap space and the talent surrounding him isn't as good as the potential suitors like the Bulls or the Nets(granted that they were the worst team in the NBA but they have good young talent like Lopez). Plus Izzo decided to come back which tells me all I need to know.
Joe Johnson is reportedly close to accepting a max-offer deal to stay with the Hawks
Listen, when you can sign a key player from a team that was swept from the playoffs by an aggregate of 101 points and quit on its coach, especially to a max deal when nobody else would come close to that money, you have to do it.
I will eat my face if LeBron signs with Donald Sterling. It will never happen.
That being said...
Chicago - LBJ and Bosh
Miami - Boozer, Wade and Joe Johnson
NY - J.J. Redick and Amare (They will panic about being shut out of the FA market and offer him a max deal)
Dallas - Dirk
... the bulls traded hinrich it gave them 30 million in cap space, that means the bulls can offer lebron derrick rose, noah, and another big time free agent like bosh. same thing with miami, they can do the same thing. now why would he go to the clippers? davis/gordan/griffin/kamen are role players not stars, and their not better than gibson/williams/west/varejao/jamison, he will go back to cleveland before he goes to LA
He could end up being pretty awesome. I agree about the others. Baron Davis was a star but he is past his prime.
... posted it twice, sorry guys
takes less money and signs with the Pistons
The Clippers with that lineup wouldn't even have the best starting 5 in LA.
Fisher, Bryant, Artest or Odoms, Gasol, Bynum are better.
The ownership and the fact you have to compete with the Lakers make the Clippers a poor choice in my opinion. I think Miami, Chicago, Cleveland or New Jersey/Brooklyn make more sense.
Totally agree with the OP. Clippers would be perfect for LeBron. I think it'd be awesome to have 2 competitive LA teams.
LeBron and a power forward to the Bulls. Bosh is the 1st option, Boozer the 2nd, and David Lee the 3rd. Maybe Amare.
LeBron's 2nd most likely move is probably the Nets/Nyets.
Wade stays put. If Bosh doesn't go to the Bulls, he joins Wade with the Heat. If Bosh sticks with the Bulls, Boozer becomes the target for the Heat.
Joe Johnson is definitely staying put with that $119MM just offered that nobody can match. So that kills the Johnson-Stoudemire to the Knicks deal. I think NY Knicks are still the first choice for Soudemire either way.
David Lee and Rudy Gay are a couple nice wildcards out there. Also, Paul Pierce just declined his player option and is in the mix. I don't think he leaves Boston though.
Lebron to the Clips? You need to step away from the bong. Sure he is going to meet with the, FA's typically will meet with any team interested in them if for nothing else than leverage against the teams they would like to sign with.
making the decision between a $119M contract and a say $90 M contract. How do you even notice the difference? Once you get to a point where you have so much money, isn't there some threshold where more money no longer makes you happy and you just want to be content, love people and live life? The marginal utility of money just goes downhill.
At least, that's how it seems it would be to my regular civilian-eyes.
That said....
- if I were LeBron, I'd go to New York, since I would Lebron and LeBron is a showman. There are no brighter lights
- if I were Amare or Joe Johnson, I'd also go New York, given D'Antoni's style and the other star coming
- if I were DWade, I'd have a tough, tough choice between Miami and hometown Chicago
- if I were Bosh or Boozer, I'd try to join DWade or LeBron, wherever that would be
The argument you make about money makes sense in theory, but in practice it will NEVER work.
On an NBA level:
1) Guys with nine figure pay days have gone broke (see: Latrell Sprewell, Antoine Walker, Allen Iverson, etc.) - so just by NBA standards - $100M is not enough to say you are financially set for the rest of your life (it is sad, I know, but it happens)
2) Related to #1 - these guys have large "families" with tons of people asking for money and investments in business ideas (I'd say about 50% of 'star' athletes have some sort of investment in a restaurant or bar somewhere).
3) Beyond the family piece - these guys have an entourage they have to support (even if it is just an agent, a manager, an accountant, and a PR guy - that's still food they are putting on the table for business-related friends).
And then you could look at the entire macro environment and quickly come to the conclusion that people just don't turn down more money. Does Warren Buffett stop doing due diligence on companies he is purchasing just because he already has a ton of cash? No. Does Steve Jobs quit Apple when he's got some serious health issues? No.