OT: MJD open to trade

Submitted by turtleboy on

Jauguars running back and 2011 NFL rushing champion Maurice Jones-Drew has been holding out in Jacksonville for mega millions this offseason and the teams new majority owner has been playing hardball in return. He's made public statements diminishing MJD's importance for the franchise, and stating that time is running out time for a deal to be struck. MJD in return has stated he would be open to a move to a team that "wants him" and I wondered what the odds are of the Lions being able to make a (hypothetic) successful trade package for him, and what players might (again hypothetically) move.

It's difficult to predict how many players Detroit will sign from it's preseason roster, but as things stand Detroit has so many offensive weapons that management was openly criticized for taking more in this years NFL draft. Jacksonville also has been suffering from a lack of offense even with MJD, finishing the 2011 season ranked 28th in ppg. As it stands we have 1st round RB Jahvid Best, high 2nd round RB Mikel Leshoure, RB Jerome Harrison, RB Kevin Smith, RB Keiland Williams, and return specialist RB Stefon Logan all with NFL experience in uniform. Detroit could make an offer even more attractive with some of our abundance of receiving depth. In addition to Megatron we currently have first choice WR Nate Burleson, high 2nd round pick WR Titus Young, WR Maurice Stovall, and 3 former Jacksonville WR's, in addition to rookie WR Ryan Broyles. Detroit also has 3 productive receiving TE's with 1st round pick Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Scheffler, and Will Heller.

Detroit has at least 7 legitimate receiving threats besides the top WR in the universe, and additionally has 4 versatile pass catching RB's on our roster. Would a move for MJD be a good move for Detroit? What players would make a  fair, or attractive trade for him?

I think Detroit could move a lot of it's top talent for MJD and not really miss a step offensively. We've already been playing without Best and Leshoure, and even though I'm a fan of all of our receiving threats, once we have a healthy run game established again a few of them could be redundant and fighting for playing time. 

Thoughts?

His Dudeness

August 22nd, 2012 at 10:59 AM ^

We need a OL that is designed to run block before we can have a great RB. There are a ton of decent RBs in the league who look horrible because they have no OL. Unless you are Barry (and MJD is no Barry, obvs) you really have little chance to be successful behind a sub-par OL. There is no reason for the Lions to stop what they're doing to spend big bucks (or players) on a "big time" RB unless they can get him on the cheap. I just don't think the Lions are set up to accomadate a big time RB right now.

JohnnyBlue

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:02 AM ^

if a trade happened it Jacksonville would be lucky to get a 3rd round pick. RBs in the NFL rarely deserve a Big second contract. after 4 or 5 years in the league there on the backside of there career. Jacksonville knows this and that's why they are playing hardball

Schembo

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:03 AM ^

He would be a huge weapon for us. I think MJD has at least 3 good years left in him.  That would put his career at 10 seasons when runningbacks start declining drastically in production.  I would trade Leshoure, Broyles and a draft pick or possibly Delmas.  I wouldn't be big on trading Delmas but he does have an injury history.

Phil Brickma

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:23 AM ^

Football is different than other sports. Trades often seem one-sided talentwise. In this case, Jacksonville would be dumping a giant headache and - essentially - a salary dump by not having to resign MJD. IF they make a trade, it wouldn't be for more than a pair of high- to mid-round picks. No team would have to give up a solid starter, let alone three.

JohnnyBlue

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:14 AM ^

Only way this would make sense is that the lions were a Running back away from a legit super bowl run....unfortuonally we need 2 corners and a safety more than we need a rb

turtleboy

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:21 AM ^

We might already have one of those corners, which could put us a step ahead of Green Bays porous secondary, and New Englands last place defense. Of all the teams in the NFL Detroit  needs rushing offense most of all, and the most productive back might move, and might move cheap (or at least cheaper than Ray Rice and Forte)

turtleboy

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:56 AM ^

Lol, yeah. Cheap isn't the right word. He's certainly not holding out in Jacksonville to move cheap, but it could also be just because he's tired of being beaten up, leading the league in carries, and seeing no money and no wins for it. We might be able to pick him up for some money, and the hope of wins. 

CRex

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:44 AM ^

I see no reason to tie up the cap space on MJD.  Even if we could trade for him cheaply, you still have to pay him to get him to show up at camp.  Between LeShoure and Williams the running back situation is fine as it stands.  Once Best can get off the puplist it will look better. I'd much rather see cap money going into the offensive line and secondary.  With Stafford and our WRs we're already in a good spot to be a pass first team.  If we can get an awesome RB cheap, that's nifty, but we can survive with a midrange running gaming.  Plus MJD is just too old to be worth it.  You can get more bang for your buck by grabbing a younger player and getting more career carries out of him. 

Edit:

Also consider the longevity of linemen like John Runyan, Jon Jansen, Steve Hutchinson, etc.  It's much better to get a good line that opens the kind of holes and then just plug and play your running backs.  You can take a Round 2 or Round 3 running back and make him look like a 1st ballot Hall of Famer with a good line and scheme.  If we're going to move players and cap space, go for the top flight young tackles and guards.  

1201SouthMain

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:27 AM ^

Just my opinion of course, but last things Lions need is a top DOLLAR running back in a long term deal.  Sucking up the cap they could spend on positions that need legit upgrades.  MJD is a great back but Lions don't need a great back ..... not at that price.

It would be a big mistake and one thing I have to say about Lions current management is that they don't seem to make big mistakes.  I'd be surprised if they went after MJD unless the price tag isn't what I'm expecting it would be.

 

Phil Brickma

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:27 AM ^

Personally, I don't think MJD is worth a trade. The high-priced contract would be more of a detriment than what the Lions would lose in the trade. Really, they are missing one RB right now (Best). Leshoure and K. Smith are healthy and could have decent seasons. They also have, IMO, decent depth in K. Williams and J. Bell if necessary.

The Lions can win without a running game. Their biggest issue isn't even the secondary, it's health. The Lions NEED their DL to stay healthy this year. KVB already is nursing a knee and cannot afford for guys like Fairley and their depth pieces (Sammie HIll) to miss time. If the DL can't get adequate pass rush like what happened in the second half last year, their secondary is toast, regardless of talent.

Delmas' injury cant be understated, too. He needs to be out there. His communication and leadership is vital to that unit.

Jeff M

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:33 AM ^

Not even thinking of the draft picks and players they'd give up, or the return on value in the latter part of the contract we'd have to give MJD, the cap cost might be prohibitve.

The Lions are already heavily invested in Stafford, Johnson, and Suh. Adding MJD takes away a lot of flexibility. Detroit only has ~4 million in cap space right now, so they would have to trade or release someone to make the MJD extension happen. In terms of cuts, if Best still isn't cleared soon and it looks like he'll never be, they might just cut him. There wouldn't be room for both Best and MJD in any case. They would have to do more than that, though.

Since Jacksonville seems cost conscious, they're unlikely to take back any significant contract unless it's a blue chip player. If Jax really likes Avril, he could make sense -- they've been looking to bolster their pass rush a lot recently and Detroit seems unlikely to re-sign him.

But even if they get under the cap for this year, there are likely extensions for Delmas, Levy and Durant during this season/next year. Detroit also has to think about re-signing Cherilus, Houston, Corey Williams and Avril in the offseason, though some of those might not happen anyway. Overall, it seems unlikely.

Still, the thought of MJD on this team without giving up too many significant pieces is tantalizing. He's a good pass-catching threat as well, which would give Detroit another huge dimension in addition to keeping teams more honest against the run.

 

turtleboy

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:45 AM ^

You're right, they might not resign Wiliams if Fairley has a productive season. MJD would take the place of both Best and Leshoure in terms of carries and production, so putting them, and a WR or TE contract and Avril up might make the deal work if they plan on resigning Avril, or not. Not really sure that they will resign Cherilus either. OLine is one of the highest dollar FA moves teams make so they'd either keep him, or draft a replacement at this point.

WMUgoblue

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:34 AM ^

The NFL is a passing league, there is no way I want the Lions to mortgage future defensive draft picks for a 27 year old RB with lots of miles on his tires. LeShoure and Smith just have to be competent, the Lions offense is already good enough.

O Fo Sho

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:40 AM ^

fall into the defensive backfield.  Our offense is fine and will produce.  MJD is a great player, but he is not the difference between our Lions and the Superbowl.  I would not make that trade.

Tater

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^

MJD?  Puh-leeze.  MJD needs to show up, man up, and shut up.  If he can't do that, I don't want him on any team I cheer for.  People like him always cost you more in the locker room than they produce on the field.

O Fo Sho

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:46 AM ^

I know where you are coming from, but I don't think MJD is a bad apple.  A RB's shelf life is short.  He's been taking a huge pounding the last three years for a team that has no shot at success.  This is a league that can cut guys at anytime for little or no reason since their typical contracts aren't guaranteed.  I can't blame the guy for wanting to be compensated on the level he is producing at.  He's the only player that will put butts in seats in J'ville.

turtleboy

August 22nd, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^

You raised two really good points. He's a good apple, and Detroit has a few bad apples, and RBs dont get a lot of guaranteed money. They could sign him to a larger contract in Detroit, with only a limited amount guaranteed up front.

blacknblue

August 22nd, 2012 at 11:45 AM ^

There's a reason he's not playing now and I'm guessing it's because he wants more money than he's worth. That's not going to change because he changed cities.

JohnnyBlue

August 22nd, 2012 at 12:20 PM ^

If we make the deal I'm sure Mayhew will get value, that man knows how to write a contract. If mjd got something like 5 year 25 million with the first 3 guaranteed, with performance bonuses on place to double that salery I would be completely fine with it.

mgowill

August 22nd, 2012 at 3:45 PM ^

 

Selecting the past eight Super Bowl Champions and comparing some of the stats for rushing shows some interesting trends.  From 2004 to 2007, the team who won the Super Bowl had a running back rush for over a thousand yards,  From 2008 to present, the team who won the Super Bowl did not have a running back that broke 800 yards.

I added the Team Passing and Team Rushing for the season rankings as more food for thought.  I'm going to go back further than the last 8 winners just for my own fun.

Source -

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

 

2011 NY Giants - Ahmad Bradshaw (659), Brandon Jacobs (571)

Team Passing 5th, Team Rushing 32nd

2010 Green Bay Packers - Brandon Jackson (703)

Team Passing 5th, Team Rushing 24th

2009 New Orleans Saints – Pierre Thomas (793), Mike Bell (654)

Team Passing 4th, Team Rushing 6th

2008 Pittsburgh Steelers – Willie Parker (791), Mewelde Moore (588)

Team Passing 17th, Team Rushing 23rd

2007 NY Giants – Brandon Jacobs (1,009), Derrick Ward (602)

Team Passing 21st, Team Rushing 4th

2006 Indianapolis Colts – Joseph Addai (1,081), Dominic Rhodes (641)

Team Passing 2nd, Team Rushing 18th

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers – Willie Parker (1,202)

Team Passing 24th, Team Rushing 5th

2004 New England Patriots – Corey Dillon (1,635)

Team Passing 11th, Team Rushing 7th

The_Doc

August 22nd, 2012 at 6:53 PM ^

I think that it's hard to sign a RB to a long-term deal when he's 27, but what depth can the Jags lean back on if they trade MJD or don't offer him a deal? MJD is the face of the franchise and a huge help to the already abysmal offense run by Blaine Gabbert.  The Jags must try to resign him, they're quickly approaching 0-16 Lions territory.