OT: Mike & Mike: Make 1 out of 10 half court shots for $20M or 2 years in jail

Submitted by amaizenblue402 on

I was listening to Mike & Mike on my way to work this morning (if you don't like Mike & Mike, you can stop reading).  They were throwing out hypothetically that if you were given 10 half court shots and all you had to do was make 1 for $20 million but if you miss them all you go to jail for 2 years, would you do it?  I think I would have to try this.  Thoughts?

EDIT:  I didn't hear how long you would have to practice, but lets just say this is a one-time chance and you would have to do this spur of the moment if you wanted a shot at it.

EDIT2:  myrtlebeachmaizenblue informed us that they said it's a white collar jail, no risk of harm with conjugal visits.  Also, that is $20 million net, taxes paid for you.

 

hailtothevictors08

March 3rd, 2015 at 10:08 AM ^

These odds seem very low. Even as just a guy who played in high school and helps coach youth teams, unguarded which I would assume I would be,  I can almost always make a half courter given 5 to 10 shots. And 20 million is life changing money. 

However, 2 years is a significant portion of your life. We are not guaranteed any amount of time on earth and giving up two years seems such a great risk. Yes, without a family, I could just get an online degree and workout, but I still don't think that it would be worth it.

Really, the question is, what do you value more: two of your prime years in your 20s or a chance to make $20 million. 

It is a really tough call especially because I think I would probably make it, but in the end, I already enjoy my life. I am not risking 2 years of it. 

GoWings2008

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:32 AM ^

but I'll play along because I heard the bit as I was driving to work.

No Effing Way would I do that.  2 yrs?  Over a bet like that? Nuh uh.  The loss isn't just the $2M, its losing the ability to make what you make now and the 2 yrs.  I'm not THAT good of a shot.

JHendo

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^

You would be set for life financially, but it wouldn't be a guaranteed improvement in other aspects of your life.  Whereas missing all the shots and winding up in jail for 2 years would ruin you financially, as well have the potential to destroy your relationships, living situations, future jobs/social connections, ability to interact with others appropriately, etc...  The pros in no way exceed the cons here.  I love money, but I would not do this.

Magnus

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:39 AM ^

Give me 20 shots, and I might do it. But not 10. I'm happy enough with my life right now that I don't need the $20 million enough to risk two years of jail time.

MGOTyrone

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:40 AM ^

Anyone who says they would take that bet is only saying that because it's not a real possibility. If you were actually facing 2 years in prison with hardened criminals, losing your job, your home, that time with family, friends, etc. there are 0 people not currently already rock bottom who would actually take that bet.

BJNavarre

March 3rd, 2015 at 10:13 AM ^

I don't think you have to be THAT rock bottom. If you were a good long range shooter in HS, your percentage from half court is probably around 10-15%. Lets say 10%. The probability of missing all 10 shots would be .9^10 = 34.8%. That gives you an expected earnings of $6.97M. 

Now let's look at expect losses. So, you lose all earnings for 2 years, and then lets make the assumption that your income will lag behind your current expected income by 50% once out of prison. If you make $80k, you lose $160k right off the bat, and then $40k annually for 25 years (let's ignore things like wage growth and ROI to keep things simpler).  ($160k + ($40k *25)) * 0.348 = -$403k 

Now your expected earnings are down to $6.57M - math wiz's let me know if I'm way off base. Other factors are difficult to quantify: what (negative) value do you put on prison time, how much damage do you expect it will do to your relations, how risk adverse are you, how much do you value the flexibility that having $20M dropped on you will give you? The prison time is pretty huge, but would it outweigh the expected $6.5M?

I think people do these calculations instinctively, and there are a lot of decent basketball players with a meh career/life that would take that bet. 

saveferris

March 3rd, 2015 at 5:23 PM ^

Especially if you're starting out cold, with no preparation as the OP suggests in his first edit.  It could take you 2, 3, maybe even 4 shots just to determine the best motion and hopefully get the your range dialed in.  Bottom line, without preparation, you have pretty much 0% chance of maknig that shot based on any kind of skill, you're just heaving up a prayer.

JamieH

March 3rd, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^

Being a good shooter is irrelevant.  Half-court shots are outside of ANYONE's natural shooting range.  You are chucking up prayers from half-court.  You can certainly practice that specific shot, but it is completely unrelated to your regular shot.  You aren't going to sit there at half-court and put up regular jumpers. 

xtramelanin

March 3rd, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^

a standard mgocriminal who is looking at doing time anyway?  it'd be like a free ticket in that case.   so for the 'institutionally' experienced amongst us, the answer would be a resounding, 'why the heck not?!, and 'give me that ball!'

Bando Calrissian

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:42 AM ^

Do I think I could make 1 of 10 right now with nothing riding on it? I think I could reasonably say I'd come close, if not actually do it.

With 2 years of jail riding on it? No way that ball is getting anywhere near the hoop.

CompleteLunacy

March 3rd, 2015 at 11:44 AM ^

Because I imagine the individual odds of hitting the shot drop precipitously after, say, your fifth failed attempt. Personally, if i already had missed 7 shots I would give it about a 0.001% chance id hit one of the next three. I mean, think about it. You might be thinking of $20M the first few shots. But if you missed 9 already? Ain't no chance in hell you're thinking about the money.

gustave ferbert

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:45 AM ^

Interesting.  

People would gladly do it if the consequences weren't so great.  Which demonstrates an aversion toward loss as opposed to risk.  Because if given 10 chances, the odds of making one are theoretically pretty good given the payoff. 

west2

March 3rd, 2015 at 9:07 AM ^

generally looking online it looks like the odds are around 50-1 for an average Joe taking the half court shot.   Actually reasonable odds considering the half ice shot in a 4"  slot is something like 5000-1.    I am with most of you, don't know if I would risk my liberty for a 50-1 shot.  Pressure would be on too, cameras, people wanting you to miss.  

TrueBlue2003

March 3rd, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^

$20 million basically means you almost never have to waste time doing anything you don't want to do again.  No more mowing the lawn, no more doing your taxes, no more working a job you don't like, no more taking anything but the quickest, most direct, transportation methods. Money can buy tons of time.  That's why this is a tough question and the answer for most people is probably highly dependent on how much time they currently waste doing things they don't like to do. I love my job and my life so no way I'd do it, but I do realize I'm fortunate that way. 

myrtlebeachmai…

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:54 AM ^

Just that fact that your freedom is taken. Even allowed for conjugal visits... Lol. There was a younger day when I probably would have. I've made that shot.... But it has been a WHILE.

And, did say 20 mil NET, taxes paid for you...

HAIL2VICTORZ

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:53 AM ^

$20 mil-after taxes?

Sons of Anarchy jail time or Marty Kahn I have to work in the garden jail time?

Not enough $ and too few shots (even for a decent athlete).

All comes down to combined family income (20 years of replacement income for most of us I imagine) and if you have children.

No amount of $ takes me away from my family