OT-Lebron James returns to Cleveland
I just heard a report on TV that Lebron is returning to Cleveland. He made a statement to Sports Illustrated.
They probably have to give up Wiggins to get Love right?
People keep saying this, but I just don't get it. It's one thing if they start making trades and, but I have yet to see a convincing argument regarding why Cleveland's current "supporting cast" would be better than Miami's supporting cast. The only points that get brought up routinely are "youth" and "the future." Chris Bosh was better than anyone on Cleveland's roster last season and Dwayne Wade's numbers weren't actually that far off Kyrie Irving's numbers - Irving has been far from the top notch player many believe he has been. If Wiggins is good, you have an argument, but again, even if he turns out, it could be 3 years down the line before he's a good to great starter - and that's only if he turns out. In fact, if you just do raw win share numbers, Miami's roster last season (minus LeBron) would have won 5 more games than Cleveland's current roster.
On top of this, in case people forgot, LeBron will be 30 by next year's Playoffs. Not saying he is not or won't be good when that time arrives, but I think people need to realize that some of his best days may already be behind him and we may actually start to see some regression in the next few seasons. Again, not yet, but unless LeBron defies all aging trends, he probably will reach Kobe's level before some of this "youth" reaches its potential.
Dwayne Wade played in 54 games during the regular season last year, and played rested every time he touched the court. Even with that much rest, he was basically toast by the end of the Conference Finals. In the Finals, I, a 6 foot flat 28 year old who's 40 pounds over weight and last played competitive basketball in the 5th grade would have been better on defense than he was.
Statistically, if you remove Lebron, the 2007 Cavs had a better team than last year's Heat during the Finals and it wasn't going to get better.
Statisically, Dwayne Wade wasn't even the Heat's second best player last year (excluding LeBron), that was Chris Anderson, who had 6.0 win shares. If Anderson had been on Cleveland's roster, he would have also been second. Bosh had 1.3 more win shares than anybody on Cleveland's roster.
Wade only had 5.5, but he was also far more efficent than Irving. If you combine Miami and Cleveland's rosters from last season (exclude LeBron), Miami had 5 of the top 8 in win shares including #1 in Chris Bosh. Remember, this is all with a starter and the team's best player excluded. LeBron is going to help some other guy's numbers on Cleveland's team, but he's also going to decrease other totals because he's going to take up a ton of minutes.
Also, I do find it a bit funny you rip on a guy for playing "badly" in the NBA Finals. Irving has never even made the NBA Playoffs, despite the team being in a historically bad East. Plus, not sure how the 2007 Cavs are relevant. Miami's surrounding cast wasn't great, but my point here is that Cleveland's is actually worse.
Miami's surrounding cast wasn't great, but my point here is that Cleveland's is actually worse.
The numbers disagree with you.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebron-james-shouldnt-stay-in-miami…
So, what you're telling me is that 54 wins don't make a championship contender, but projections right now have Cleveland at ... 55 wins. 55 wins would be exactly 1 more win than Miami had last season. That also assumes Miami would not have done anything to get better, which I think we already saw was not true.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-cleveland-would-look-like-with-lebron-james-and-kevin-love/
Cleveland has so much to work with. Wiggins, Bennet and 2 first round draft picks. One of which should be quite good since Miami doesn't look to be very good next year.
(Read earlier comment). If Cleveland works out some trades to bring in different guys, then I completely withdraw my statement. My point is that the positive outlooks are based far more on potential than things we have seen on the court. My point above was that I think LeBron's window is shorter than many want to believe and that the way the team is right now, I don't think the situation is better or would have been better.
The Heat has exactly 3 players under contract. You can't say the Cavs have to stay as is and the Heat are allowed to improve. As I stated earlier, your original post is a giant contradiction. You can't say that LeBron is getting old and than try to point out Wade and Bosh as being great assets. Wade is 32 going 40.
LeBron's Window only grows by joining the Cavs. The youth of that team can eat up minutes. He goes from being one of the youngest contributing players on the team to one of the oldest contributing players on the team. That is a good thing.
You're not looking at this right. Going forward, Cleveland will be better than Miami. Lebron just traded in a super old team for a super young team with a lot of promising talent. He's going to go from playing with guys who need to watch their minutes to guys who can play 40 a night, no sweat. While initially he may have to carry the load, in the next 2-3 years, he'll be much better off than if he were hitched to two older stars like Wade and Bosh, who would be clogging up cap room well into their mid-thirties.
Meanwhile, even if they don't get Kevin Love, who in the East is better than Cleveland right now, especially if Bosh goes to Houston? The Bulls with an 80% Rose? New York? Brooklyn? The only team that might be is Indiana and after what we saw this year, I highly doubt it.
You're bringing up the same point I brought up before though. "Going forward" is one thing, but it's pure speculation. Generally, a team with a younger base of talent will be better in the long-term, but we can't guarantee that's true. We also don't know how long it would/will take for Cleveland to be better. Maybe it takes them 2 years to turn that talent to the next level. For all we know, LeBron has dropped off a good portion by then (he would be 32). On top of that, if this talent starts developing, all of this "cap space" is going to be gone before you know it, then you're right where Miami is now. This also assumes a pretty quick improvement curve.
The other side of this is that it assumes that Miami does nothing to get better and just sits stagnant. They just signed two free agents this offseason (both upgrades IMO) and who knows what they would have done if the Big 3 restructured deals. I think Napier's going to be a complete bust, but again, we can't say that for certain now. We've seen picks work out both ways, so we don't know. Plus, in 2-3 years, maybe Miami trades for someone else or does find a good Draft pick. My point here isn't that Cleveland shouldn't improve (they should), but it just assumes away any potential for Miami to improve and the current situation.
Finally, Cleveland should be the best team in the East. I don't deny that, but that wasn't Miami's problem. They only lost two Playoff series and they were both in the Finals. Last year, the Spurs completely destroyed them. Maybe that means it's time to shake things up, but I don't see how that changes his situation. Miami probably still wins the East if he comes back.
Contention engulfes yourmind, it seems. I see validity in your counterargument, but I would guess the original/overall point trying to be made here is that it was prudent of Lebron to return home for various reasons; some obviously more important to him than others.
Think you are completely right about that. Definitely more happening than just the stuff on the court. Just wanted to throw the other side of things out there.
First you point out that Bosh and Wade aren't that far off or are better than Irving. Then you post about how LeBron is 30 and his best days may be behind him.
If LeBron's best days are behind him, than Wade needs to retire last year. Your post answers your own question. Irving is only going to get better, especially with James on his team. Bosh and Wade are already on the decline. One would expect the gap between Wade and Irving to increase while Irving will probably surpass Bosh in WS this year.
Also you have to consider than Cleveland has much more room to work with and more pieces available to trade to improve their roster. Minnesota knows Love is not coming back. Wiggins is easily the best offer they could get. Now look at a team of Iving, James and Love.
If you really sit down and look at it, it wasn't even close.
How exactly is that a contradiction? I said that Bosh is better than anyone on Cleveland's team, said that both Anderson and Wade aren't far off from Irving, and then brought up LeBron's age. My point is that I believe he should want to be on the best team possible right now, not in 3 or 5 years, but now, when his chance to win it all is at its peak. Cleveland's roster (at best) is about where Miami's was last season, which was a long way from winning it, all considering how badly the Heat were demolished in the Finals. They weren't even the #1 seed in the East. I understand the argument that they can carry him more when he gets older, but that ignores his option to go to Cleveland in 2-3 years too.
Also, I would be amazed if Irving passes Bosh in win shares this year. He's 1.3 back, so he would have to show roughly 20% improvement from last season. With a boatload less possessions (28.2% usage - highest on Cavaliers) with the addition of LeBron, I just don't see that happening. His efficiency should improve, but he also rated #100 overall in win shares per 48, so that's not saying a ton. Maybe Bosh drops off some, but I think people have overvalued Irving a lot.
A final note, my original comment said that if they traded, we would be talking about something completely different. If that's the plan, ok, but with the current roster, I think Miami would have been the better situation.
Bosh isn't on the Miami roster at this point. Neither is Wade.
If you are going to sit and talk about what is likely to happen then you have to accept that Love is likely going to get traded to the Cavs. You should have known this before you posted. It came out yesterday that Cleveland all but had a deal in place to land Love if LeBron signed with them.
Again you can't make exceptions to make your argument better. The Heat currently have McRoberts, Granger, and Cole. LeBron isn't winning anything with those 3.
You keep saying that everyone is assuming the future. You have done the same assuming that Bosh and Wade were going to return to the Heat if LeBron did that.
at Dicks right now buying new ones
come out with a new album now. Cleveland is the city where we come from so run run run
East Ninety-nine-nine-nine-nine
Pretty sure one of them is in prison for quite a while yet.
Looks like fans will have to get back to the stores to get new jerseys
We'd have to get new ones anyways. He's #6 now.
Didn't the Heat just draft the college guy that James liked/wanted and sign a decent big man and Danny Granger? Riley's probably pissed although I'm sure he knew what was coming.
I don't think he knew it was coming. I think he assumed they would all come back and take a pay cut.
Also nobody knew that the market would blow up for these 2nd tier free agents.
how long til Manziel and Lebron are in the same club together with a photo all over TMZ?????
Tonight probably.
So THAT IS WHY Cleveland drafted Manziel!. It worked!!
and talking with him about the pitfalls of celebrity might be the best thing for Manziel
I don't think LBJ does many clubs these days, but I could be wrong.
Probably after the World Cup since Lebron is flying to Brazil today.
Cleveland is about to be the L.A. of the midwest, except with lots of Walmarts and stripmalls and fat people.
ESPN must be annoyed they have to reference SI breaking the story. While the suspense was fun, I'm more curious to see where all the other dominoes fall now. Congrats Cleveland
I guess Chris Broussard's two phones he's been carrying around didn't help any.
In a related story, a south Florida artist released this rendition of the seats at American Airlines Arena this coming season...
FWIW I just bought Cavs tickets. I had season tickets from 1993-2011. I just re-upped!
It's gon' break.
Yeah, well, I can buy Pistons tickets for $5 at the gate.
Hospitals in South Florida are overwhelmed with new patients today complaining of sprained ankles, broken legs, torn ACLs, and other leg injuries as thousands of people today chose to leap off the Miami Heat's bandwagon at once"
People in Ohio being happy is pretty much never a good thing. Seeing the reaction in Cleveland had he returned to Miami would'be been priceless. Oh well.
there would have been no reaction. Most of the people understood that Lebron had done nothing to string us along this time, and we were all in it at our own risk. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me sort of thing. now of course, there are always a few knuckleheads, but the majority of fans fell into the hysteria with their eyes wide open. The backlash would have bee no where near 2010.
Well we will never know now, but I'm going to disagree that there wouldn't have been much reaction.
I'm not a fan of Cleveland and was (am?) a bandwagon Lebron hater. If he went to another team outside of Miami or Cleveland, his legacy would have been that of a hired gun. Him "coming home" is an awesome way for him to secure his story, plus puts some SERIOUS egg on Dan Gilbert's face.
The prodigal son returns. Kinda cool.
LeBron was respected but he never received the " love." If he goes back to E.99 and wins a title he will be on the NBA Mt. Rushmore in my eyes. He still isn't clutch but I do have a bit more respect for him.
Sigh. Once again a famous athlete sets a terrible example for our youth. Voluntarily moving to Ohio?! What kind of example is that for the kids? I always hope to expect better from those our kids idolize.