OT: Le Tour Stage 5 - summit finish

Submitted by stephenrjking on

Yesterday Peter Sagan, the best rider in the world by some margin, was thrown out of the race for crashing Mark Cavendish into the wall, a decision that is a subject of intense controversy. (I think the result/points penalty he initially received was fine, but kicking him out is ridiculous). No Sagan means a lot of the stages are a lot less interesting, and I was concerned that the entire race may wind up a boring parade with Sky locking down control of the GC on Planche des Belle Filles today.

Not so fast. Fabiu Aru attacked the Sky train and it actually worked--Chris Froome lost his lieutenants in quick succession and was forced to chase alone. Aru stayed away, gaining 20 seconds plus some bonus time. Dan Martin, known for his finishing kick, also managed to clip Froome at the line. Top contender Richie Porte was unable to get past Froome but did stay close, while Nairo Quintana was dropped and ceded 16 seconds to Froome before bonuses.

That leaves Froome with the yellow jersey (leader/teammate Geraint Thomas did his train duty and lost 40 seconds) but Froome looking at least a bit vulnerable. On a climb that usually only yields modest separation, it was Fabiu Aru doing the talking.

It's still Froome's race to lose, but it's suddenly interesting.

Everyone Murders

July 5th, 2017 at 12:00 PM ^

I saw the video, and support the decision to toss Sagan.  He intentionally wiped Cavendish out, and his "apology" rings hollow.

I'm not sure that this opens the overall race up that much, but the Green Jersey competition is now officially wide-open.

 

stephenrjking

July 5th, 2017 at 12:16 PM ^

Sagan' post race comments were fine. The elbow was, IMO, an instinctive flick rather than an attempt at violence, and in any case Cav had already begun to lose his balance. But it makes for a bad-looking picture (you know, the one leading every article about the incident), and perhaps that makes it easier for the jury to justify. Jostling happens in sprints all the time. I don't think it was worth the consequence they rendered. (Sagan was never a threat for overall win, so that part of the contest isn't affected).

reshp1

July 5th, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^

The most damning overhead shot is obsured by trees at a pivotal moment. Looking at the front on shot, you can see Cav make contact first and as you said already starting to lean into the barrier. The elbow was a justified reaction to contact, as bad as it looks. The only other issue is if Sagan deviated from his line recklessly and again, there's scant evidence of this. He's already swinging that way in response to what's going in front of him before Cav tries to thread the gap to the barriers. Cav himself was not upset about that part. If anyone should have been punished for deviating from their line, it was the stage winner Demare. UCI/ASO tossed Sagan based on the consequences of his actions, not the actions themselves.

Everyone Murders

July 5th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^

Whether it was "jostling" or something more is a matter of opinion, I suppose.  I saw Sagan doing something different than swimming through there.

But it also matters, a lot, that the push was into a fixed wall during an all-out sprint.  What I saw was Sagan wrecking Cavendish purposely.  I base that on the video, not on the "bad-looking picture"*.  It was a bad decision by Sagan, and a very dangerous one given the proximity of the wall for Cavendish (giving Cavendish no space to recover).  Again, no problem with him being dismissed even though I'm not a Sagan hater.

*Which looks bad for a reason, IMO.

EDIT - Here's the video:

jmdblue

July 5th, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^

The most important point of view is the first few frames of the overhead view after they emerge from the trees. It looks to me like Cav is intentionally entering a very thin seam and is already leaning into Sagan to create additional space. That is at least as dangerous as Sagan's reaction. I'd also suggest the history of the two riders' styles would favor Sagan in terms of safe practices.

chrisu

July 6th, 2017 at 7:03 AM ^

and the crash was discussed ad nauseum. The prevailing opinions from the Peloton seem to be it was all pretty benign and they all wish Cav a speedy recovery. For my own $.02, it looked like Cav tried to squeeze into too tight of a space and Sagan was defending his space moreso than trying to eliminate a rival. The race is less interesting with those two not on the start. For Sagan, if the jury felt compelled to send a message, I think the right play would have been to dock him 80 points and leave him in. Knowing Sagan, he would still somehow pull off the Green Jersey which would be remarkable. The jury would have sent their message, and Le Tour would have been better for it. 

Crash aside, great ride by Aru yesterday. It will be interesting to see if he and his team can keep him in good position for the next two weeks. The way he looked yesteray, he appears worthy of a podium finish. 

jmdblue

July 5th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^

Cav started leaning into Sagan as he advanced into the too small gap available to him and tried to create space. He's been doing it for years, in many cases resulting in his competitors' hitting the deck. Yes, Sagan's elbow did come up, but the race disqualification is a horrible decision. Most of the peloton (outside of Dimension Data) appear to agree with me as does all of the quite smart NBCSN commentariat. Why did the judgement come down this way? To open the Green Jersey for Arnaud perhaps? Also, I like Cav, but my Gawd what a drama queen.

MGoBlue24

July 5th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^

A few veteran sprinters have said this is what it's like in the scrum, and a greater number have said any punishment here outside of a single race penalty is unneccesarily severe. The commissaires have definitely set a precedent - the rest of the tour will be interesting.

SpaceTiger1984

July 5th, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^

There was no intent to wipe out Cav, at the most Sagan veered off of his line to hold off Cav.  Cav tried to force himself through.  When I saw it live I thought it looked like it was purposeful, but after watching several replays for different angles the elbow flick was a reaction to Cav's bike coming into Sagan's and knocking off his balance.  In 20+ years of watching the tour and other events, I have seen much worse without a race DQ.  Sagan should have been relagated for the Stage but no DQ.  The only reason I can see is because of the exent of the injuries to Cav.

MediaNegotiabl…

July 5th, 2017 at 12:04 PM ^

Appreciate the thread, and definitely happy people are discussing Le Tour on the board, but in the future it would be apprecaited if you could keep the title more general for those of us that are on tape delay and watch at night.  Something like, "Le Tour - Stage 5" should still be sufficiently informative, but would keep it from being a spoiler for anyone that hasn't watched yet.

Also, I thought the one point that everyone seems to be missing from the craziness yesterday is that Cav was on the back wheel of Demare, the eventual stage winner.  If there was no room for Cavendish, how come Demare got through?  I think that if Sagan hadn't thrown the elbow Cav would've blown by everyone and won the Stage.

maize-blue

July 5th, 2017 at 12:08 PM ^

I'm cool with Sagan being thrown out. He stuck his elbow out and blocked Cavendish into a wall and thus breaking his shoulder in the crash. He caused the crash, let him sit it out.

Dylan

July 5th, 2017 at 12:08 PM ^

Just watched the video.  Suprised that doesn't happen at the end of every stage -- how the hell else do you move up when you are packed like sardines without bumbing each other?

reshp1

July 5th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^

IMO, Sky made a tactical error and let Aru go more so than Aru was able to pry time away. I doubt he'll pull that move off again now that he's going to be carefully marked.

stephenrjking

July 5th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^

I'm not sure. Sky's usual tactic is to let guys attack, up the train tempo, and grind them back. We've seen dozens of attacks dissolve that way, and I fully expected them to ratchet their way back up to Aru as well. But Aru had too much and was able to maintain his gap at the higher pace, forcing the Sky helpers to melt away and Froome to chase on his own. Aru just plain looked fantastic. Not to say that he'll be able to do this again, but when was the last time Sky needed to chase someone down and couldn't?

reshp1

July 5th, 2017 at 1:44 PM ^

They usually only do that for the 2nd tier guys, which I think they assumed Aru was. The primary rivals they usually cover or at least lift up the tempo. They didn't react at all when Aru went up the road. That could be because they were at their limit already, but usually that's not how they ride tempo. Sad thing about this year's course is we won't really know for sure until probably stage 18. All the other mountain stages have 20k+ of down hill before the finish.

stephenrjking

July 5th, 2017 at 2:05 PM ^

Given the speed at which the lieutenants were dispatched after Aru's attack, my conclusion is that Sky was willing but unable to track him down.

And Aru has won a Vuelta. He didn't have a huge deficit. He's a terrific climber. <cough>heracesforAstana<cough>. He's not a guy Sky can afford to let go. 

If the race is still in question going into Stage 18 I think everybody will be happy with that. And while the downhill portions take the bit out of some of the mountains, it does make the time bonuses interesting. If Dan Martin can keep this form up he could be a real threat.

Blue4U

July 5th, 2017 at 4:42 PM ^

While I understand your point, until Aru can be consistant and hang around further into the race, I'll give my nod to Froome.  There still are 2 tough summit stages left along with 3 or so hard mountain stages and an ITT on the last day before Paris.  I look for Froome to have the race in hand before then, considering he doesn't crash or have bad luck.  If Aru is within striking distance in the mid to late teen stages, he might have a chance.

I've actually been surprised by Contador's performance.  He doesn't have too many years left and I think he's on the other side of his prime.  

 

chrisu

July 6th, 2017 at 7:15 AM ^

He is definitely on his own descent, and I was surprised he didn't crack yesterday. Quintana is becoming something of a fallacy to me. He is always purported to be a terrific climber and the chief threat to Froome, yet in all the big ascents he seems to be spat out the back of the lead group when there is an attack - unless he is doing the attacking in which case he usually gets caught and passed. In any event, I feel like this tour is set up better for an aging Contador than Quintana and seems ripe for a young star to emerge. I think Aru will establish himself in this tour as a rider that could supplant Froome.

jmdblue

July 5th, 2017 at 1:49 PM ^

But maybe last year's strategy of riders from multiple teams making close-to-coordinated attacks may work better this year. Can some combination of Aru, Porte, Martin, and Nairo get Froome to crack badly in an upcoming stage? Doubt it , but maybe.

tdcarl

July 5th, 2017 at 12:30 PM ^

If you watch the video, Sagan's elbow never actually touches Cav. That aside, it was definitely a dick move to pinch Cav into the barrier, but Cav should have known he wasn't getting through. Cav actually initiated the contact with Sagan. At the end of the day Sagan should have gotten relegated for not holding his line, but kicking him out is too much. On that note Demare made a very aggressive move across the wheel of Bouhanni, but that's gotten totally swept under the rug. Probably just a coincidence that the commissaries aren't going to punish a Frenchman on a French team....

CC_MFan

July 5th, 2017 at 7:11 PM ^

However,
 

If that is the case then how do they punish Sagan at all?  Cavendish came from behind and put his head and shoulders on Sagan's back lost balance and crashed.  To me it looked like Sagan's elbow was more of a reaction to the contact and not a purposeful move.  Also, how could Sagan know that Cavendish was even there in the first place in order to block since he was ahead.  I have seen Cavendish use his upper body in a similar fashion and crashed a guy. I don't believe a penalty was warranted.

MGoBlue24

July 6th, 2017 at 7:06 AM ^

for through-the-race aerodynamics - down to 40mm width. Those elbows will be there. 40mph+ top end speeds on straight flat finishes will be there too. I don't offer any perfect answers, only amazement that there aren't more crashes.

Sons of Louis Elbel

July 6th, 2017 at 8:49 PM ^

Cav leaned into someone (in this case Sagan), as he always does, and whined about it afterward, as he always does. Not Sagan's fault.

Pretty disappointed in the Tour so far. They put in less climbing and time trailing in an effort to keep things close, but it also means a lot of less than exciting stages. 3 summit finishes just isn't enough.