OT: Kentucky or the Field?
Saw a poll on ESPN today, and 51% of people have Kentucky winning the National Title. I can't remember a time when there has been such a high consensus on this.
I am on the other side of this argument. I think the odds are significantly lower that Kentucky wins a title this year, even if we give kentucky great odds in each game, they still have a low chance at winning.
Chance of winning:
99% Round of 64
90% Round of 32
85% Sweet 16
75% Elite 8
70% Final 4
65% Championship Game
=25.8 % total odds of winning the title
Combine this, with the fact that Kentucky played relatively weak competition in the SEC, and struggled at times, and I think this team is vastly overhyped. Put another way, if Kentucky were in the ACC would there be any chance they walk out of that unscathed? Thoughts? What do you have?
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/poll/conversation/_/id/4748328
March 17th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
UGA is very good team and UVA is much better than last year. MSU lost Harris, Payne and Appling which is their main players. Valentine and Trice has stepped up their game, but they're more of a complimentary player than a star player.
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Virginia is back at full strength, and some players who wouldn't have got as much playing time while Anderson was out have some experience under their belt now. I don't think MSU got that easy of a draw by any means. MSU is sent packing in the first weekend. Raback it.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
Yeah, Ed Feng (Power Rank! MGoBlog Roundtable!) had an article up on Grantland today proposing a similar theory for winning your bracket pool. If you're in a 100-person pool and pick Kentucky to win you're going to have a hard time winning the pool even if Kentucky ends up winning. But if you go with a field team and they end up winning you're almost certainly getting some money.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
Kenpom gives them a 33.8% chance of winning it all, so you're not too far off what he thinks. Considering he "only" gives them a 97.9% chance of winning their first round game, I think he's a little pessimistic. I'd say they're a coin flip.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^
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March 17th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
Um, yeah. I think we all know that. That is common sense.
Didn't you just say, like 4 posts above this, that you're picking Kentucy to win?
EDIT: Guy I was responding to got deleted; my response now makes no sense.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
A few teams have taken them to the wire. You never know what will happen with a team that depends on underclassmen, even if they are all NBA talents.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^
While there are a lot of underclassmen, a good portion of those underclassmen played significant minutes on a team that lost in the NCAA final last year.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
Each game is conditional on winning the previous games. The guys at fivethirtyeight did an analysis and have them at 40.7% odds of winning the whole thing. That is pretty good for one team. Humans have a poor understanding of probability and randomness so having 51% of brackets with Kentucky as the winner doesn't surprise me. Personally I have Arizona.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ncaa-mens-tournament-forecast-the-p…
March 17th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
He did the calculation correctly. He just used more pessimistic odds for each game than 538.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
March 17th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
I like Arizona too if they can get out of their region. They were FAR more impressive vs UM than Villanova was. It wasn't close. They have size and length and play in the west so most people don't watch them.
I dont know if Gonzanga is legit but I would have loved to see them as the #2 in UK's region. They have a bevy of big men who can match UK in size at least.
I think UK will have 2-3 very close games. The questioon is how they execute in the end. Last year that had a Cinderella run with the Harrison shots at the end of multiple games. No guarantee those go in this year and they will have a few close games.
If you give me "the field" v UK I pick the field. And I agree to win a pool you have to pick against UK but also you have to pick a team to win it all that goes far. that is what is left out in these articles. Meaning if you pick "Northern Iowa" or "Duke" to win it all and they get knocked out in the sweet 16 it doesnt help you even if UK loses in the final 4. So yes you need to pick against UK but you also then need to pick a team that goes farther than UK to win a pool.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
is such a sleeper in this tourney. You covered so many teams in your post, and like a lot people, Wisconsin is not seriously in the discussion. I know Bo Ryan is evil personified but I think this year is the year the Badgers actually win the thing.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
I would have picked them, but having to play Arizona in LA is rough.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
Imho officiating would have a lot to do with Kentucky losing. Meaning this team just bullies opponents inside. So, unless we get a crew that is calling a tight game against a solid shooting opponent like Duke, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona and maybe a couple others, Kentucky is going to roll this tournament.
Kansas, being the next best team in that bracket is weak. They don't play consistent ball at all and do not have a player capable of taking over a game against Kentucky. If they make it at all.
ND doesn't have the size to stay with kentucky so they get rolled if they make it.
By bracket, Kentucky is automatically in the final 4, so imho it's a 2 game tournament for Kentucky.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
March 17th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
March 17th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
March 17th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
thats not true, you can be good enough to where at some point no amount of reasonable bad luck or other teams good luck is enough to overcome that talent disparity
March 17th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
be that good, but they are not.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
Kentucky is the safe bet. They may not win it all but it is highly probable they get at least to the final four.
I personally have Kentucky losing in the championship game. Kentucky was incredibly impressive early in the season and their blowouts of UNC and Kansas were remarkable, but when was the last time they've played a truly great team? December 27 vs Louisville. They've not been challenged in forever so I have no idea how they will respond to adversity. I think it is a good call to take a UVA or a Villanova or a Wisconsin or another truly great team over Kentucky in either the final four or the championship.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^
I'd take the field. I know Kentucky has been very, very good this year, but they have struggled at time. If they struggle just one again some of these top teams, they won't be there at the end.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:44 AM ^
Coaching matters in the tournament, and Calipari is and always will be an absolutely atrocious game coach. Hopefully that out weighs the ridiculous talent advantage he's got.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^
world makes you say that? Say what you will about Calipari from an ethical standpoint but to say he is a bad "game coach" is ridiculous.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
Kenpom has them as the #1 team and therefore they will win. All hail kenpom. This year my bracket predictions were based 100% off who had the better ranking per kenpom.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
March 17th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
I want anybody but Kentucky. Even Michigan State. Yes, that's right, even MSU.
I hate what Kentucky/Calipari represent, and the cynical one-and-done stain they are on college basketball.
When both you and your coach have already announced you are there for only one year, and everybody knows it, what do you do with your time that year when you are not practicing/playing basketball? Do you ever even see a classroom? What "program" are you in for one year that is not some kind of a sham? Do you even ever walk around the campus?
What connection does pretty much an entire team of one-and-done's have to the University?
It's a stain on Kentucky's reputation, history, and tradition. I can see a program like Cincinnati doing it, but it's not like Kentucky needs to do it. It's just and easy way out.
/rant. You can come back on my lawn.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
Oh come on. That is just crazy talk. What UK does has no direct impact on what UM does; MSU does, however. Just like OSU's winning the football title did nothing but bad for UM, MSU's winning a basketball title or even just getting to the Final Four will do nothing but harm for UM.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
Yes, agreed. But for me, it goes beyond just my parochial interest in Michigan. And that's pretty rare for me.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^
Having heard from friends at UK, I can assure you that (some) Kentucky players do attend classes. You are correct that the players who know they'll be drafted cruise through their Spring semester. Not to thread hijack, but is this really something Calipari contrived or just a problem with the 1-year rule? I also don't like the man, but he isn't the epitome of evil in basketball nor is Kentucky. If he wins a three or more titles at UK, he'll probably end up being rememberd in the same light as Wooden, who also took unsavory measures without dealing with the consequences.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
winning the NC in football did a lot for Michigan, and really every other BIG football team. In order for any BIG football team to be "good" again, a BIG team actually need to prove that one could be good. The conference was teetering on mid-major status as far as the rest of the country was concerned in terms of football. Ohio State winning that title, and specifically beating Alabama in the process was very big for the entire conference.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:43 PM ^
If we win some recruiting battles against USC, Texas, and Florida schools, I'll have to agree with this.
HARBAUGH!! and all, but we're not going to pull elite kids out of CA, TX, FL to come play in a dead conference. There does need to be some buzz about the B1G, and ironically for us, that has been provided by our two biggest rivals.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^
Stop, ijohnb. Just stop. You will never convince most M fans (the owner of this blog included) that OSU's national title last season did good things for Michigan. That was the absolute worst thing that could have happened. If M wants to be good again, they have to do it themselves and not ride the fucking coat tails of that cheating, shitty program in Ohio.
it was getting to the point where you could not have a big game within the BIG conferernce because it was "just the Big Ten" so how important could it really have been. Ohio State winning the national championship happenned at the best possible time it could have for us. We still landed one of the most coveted coaches in the country, just in time to get on board for the ride back to relevance. I was actively cheering for Ohio State to win it all speciifically for that purpose. You have tunnel vision in your hatred, which is understandable, but that did nothing but good things for this entire region of football.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^
I loathe calipari and the fanbase.
Out and out filth.
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March 17th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
What interaction have you had with UK fans? They are passionate about their team, but they are also fairly classly fans. This isn't Bama where people are killed because they root for Auburn. If that were the case, then Louisville would have joined another state a while ago. I understand the Cal and UK program hate/jealousy (from my UK friends' perspectives), but hating the fans?
March 17th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
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March 17th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Unless you're a Louisville, UNC, or Duke fan/graduated, I can't imagine what bad interactions you've had with Kentucky fans. They might be smug and passionate, but mean-spirited UK fans are uncommon, in my experience.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
I also earned my MBA from UK in '95. So there's that.
We have plenty of friends here, don't get me wrong. But when the topic of UK bball is on the front burner, something happens and all decorum and rational thought goes out the window.
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March 17th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
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March 17th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
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March 17th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
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March 17th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
It's too easy to run into a team that gets hot from 3.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
March 17th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
I watched the endings of most of Kentucky's close calls this year. They had a home overtime escape against Ole Miss 89-86.
They went to OT in their next game, A&M missed a close shot that would have sent it to double OT.
LSU had the final shot against them trailing by 2 and they chose to go for the win instead of OT, their 3 point attempt rimmed off.
They had 4 other single digit wins against meh competition but you never got the sense they were going to lose.
They have had their escapes but I don't get the sense that they're going to trip up in the tournament. Don't they have three players who are 7 feet? I dread the thought of Calipari winning it all because he's a massive tool. It's the only silver lining of Michigan not being in the tournament this year...knowing Kentucky is just going all the way regardless. The title will be vacated in several years because....you know....Calipari. But in the meantime, get used to seeing many happy shots of Ashley Judd.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^
I heard on espn that kentucky would be the 3rd tallest team in the nba, and they used a starting 5 earlier in the season that would be the tallest in the nba with both harrisons, poythress, towns, and cauley-stein. I'm taking kentucky over the field