OT: Kentucky Derby

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May 6th, 2011 at 12:03 PM
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MAgoBLUE
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OT: Kentucky Derby

Tomorrow is the first Saturday of May which means it's time for the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby.  Triple Crown season is one of my favorite portions of the sports calandar.  I've attended The Preakness (pure madness) and the Belmont Stakes (classy) and one day hope to attend the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

There are some great names in this year's field.  Stay Thirsty, Pants on Fire (Tressel's Horse?), Master of Hounds, and Mucho Macho Man to name a few.

Nick Zito's horse Dialed In is the current favorite at +300.  Uncle Mo was next in line but has been scratched as of this morning.  The experts seem to think it's a wide open race.  Current odds can be found here:

http://www.kentuckyderby.info/kentuckyderby-odds.php

The weather is calling for a chance of thunderstorms all afternoon.  It could be a muddy track:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=Louisv...

Covers.com is a gambling advice web site that I use frequently.  They are attacking the Derby from a number of different angles on the front page of the site.  They give you the top 5 long shot bets here:

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=232725

Do any MGoBloggers bet the ponies?  Has anyone attended a Triple Crown race?  Any thoughts on the field for tomorrow?  Enjoy and good luck to everyone.

 

 

"fumbles the snap, takes off. . ."

(9/5/09)

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May 6th, 2011 at 12:34 PM | Love Horse racing. (Score:1)
wolverine1987
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Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 2928

I grew up in L.A., and my Dad used to take me to Santa Anita quite a lot, so I have a love for the sport and wish it was bigger in the U.S. as it once was (it once was the #2 sport in the country). I do bet on the big races, but the sport is wonderful on it's own.

"Everyone gets dumped Gabe. Let me give you some advice: a little coverup on your Adams Apple will make it appear smaller. Which will make you appear less like a transvestite." 

May 6th, 2011 at 12:50 PM | Stay Thirsty, my friends. (Score:1)
pinkfloyd2000
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Joined: 01/27/2009
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The rooting choice is obvious.

 

http://poliology.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/adtrack-dos-equisx-large.jpg

Obviously you're not a golfer.
May 6th, 2011 at 12:52 PM | Nice! (Score:1)
BrewCityBlue
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Hadn't even thought of that, embarrassingly enough.... now i HAVE to lay a couple bucks on him!

HAIL.

"Where's the threat? Oh, it's right here, and it's devouring us alive." -Ace<

May 6th, 2011 at 12:51 PM | Absolutely LOVE the Triple Crown (Score:2 Informative)
BrewCityBlue
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races, as well as all horse racing. To be honest though, i only bet the Triple Crown. I just don't have time/money to do the whole season. Sometimes the breeder's cup as well.

I think you mean Uncle Mo that was the 2nd favorite and was scratched this morning.

Mucho Macho Man is about 5th or 6th horse at 12-1 last i saw. (mabe it was 10-1, i get them confused in such a large field)

I had Super Saver last year.

I LOVED Archarcharch and Nehro this year, but they both got bad draws. Archarcharch might be able to deal with the 1 slot because he's a closer anyways and won't need to try and squeeze up on the rail with the lead early.

Nehro will have a potential tough time with that outside draw but i still like him in this race. He's show a propensity to close well in the 1 1/8 mile races, and he showed me he still had more to give at the wire: a trait to always look for when none of these 3 yr olds have raced at 1 1/4 miles yet.

I also like Twinspired. He opened at 30-1 and i see a ton of value there. Got a good draw, has a good jockey. Hasn't done well on dirt, which is a concern, but this is a year where a longshot can win it. No dominant favorite(s) and i like his and Stay Thirsty's/Pants On Fire's chances in what is the most wide-open field i can remember in quite some time.

Not trying to disrespect Dialed In - a deserving favorite at 4-1. Just that favorites only win the derby 35% of the time anyways, and i've seen favorites that were MUCH better horses than him not win it.

Man, i'm fired up!!!!

HAIL.

"Where's the threat? Oh, it's right here, and it's devouring us alive." -Ace<

May 6th, 2011 at 1:05 PM | You're right it was Uncle Mo (Score:2)
MAgoBLUE
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You're right it was Uncle Mo that was scratched.  I just changed it.

Also, thanks for the analysis.  Although I love horse racing I generally have no idea what I'm doing.

 

 

"fumbles the snap, takes off. . ."

(9/5/09)

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May 6th, 2011 at 1:20 PM | The only way I see (Score:1)
MaizeRAGE in FLA
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The only way I see Archarcharch losing is if he gets logjammed in the traffic. I also agree with you 100% about Dialed In.. Solid horse just not a decided champion. 

Somewhat disappointing to see Uncle Mo leave the field but he just wasn't the same horse that ran away in the 2 year old field.

"Every fan wants to win, and the most vocal ones demand to win. No problem. Just don't be a hypocrite and hope to reap the benefits without any risk."

May 7th, 2011 at 6:21 PM | Nehro ran out of track in his (Score:1)
BrownJuggernaut
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Nehro ran out of track in his last couple races. I think the extra 1/8 of a mile will do him good, which is why he is my pick to win the Derby.

Avatar is a reference to this. Go Blue!

May 6th, 2011 at 12:53 PM | As my name states, I live in (Score:1)
MGoLouisville
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As my name states, I live in Louisville and have thus been to the Kentucky Derby a few times over the years. I have never had the opportunity to visit The Preakness or the Belmont Stakes but would like to in the future. Judging from the Classy/Pure Madness analogy, Derby is a mixture of both. The infield is pure drunken madness while the stands are generally what you see on TV with visitors sporting their Sunday best. I for one have tasted both sides and prefer the stands, then again being 28 will do that to you. If you want to party, infield is your choice. I would recommend coming a few days early as we have the Pegasus Parade on Thursday and Oaks on Friday.

Beware the Mint Julep. Worst. Drink. Ever.

I'm going to treat you all the same. Like dogs. - Bo

May 6th, 2011 at 12:54 PM | Yeah...agreed on the MJs. (Score:1)
pinkfloyd2000
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I like ONE, repeat ONE, Mint Julep. Call it tradition, call it whatever...but I kinda enjoy ONE Mint Julep. But that's it. I can't imagine the crushing hangover/sickness that would result from drinking those damn things all day long. Sickeningly sweet...

Side note: I'm a little pissed that the pre-Derby races this year are on Versus rather than ESPN.

Obviously you're not a golfer.
May 6th, 2011 at 1:09 PM | I hear you on that. When (Score:1)
MGoLouisville
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I hear you on that. When attending I usually buy one Mint Julep for the souvenir glass. I don't understand the desire for Mint flavored Whiskey.

I'm going to treat you all the same. Like dogs. - Bo

May 6th, 2011 at 1:17 PM | Love those glasses... (Score:1)
pinkfloyd2000
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Our family has at least one set of Derby glasses every year since, oh...1974 (the year I was born). I really like them but wow...are those things paper thin, or what?

Obviously you're not a golfer.
May 6th, 2011 at 1:23 PM | I went to The Preakness in (Score:2)
MAgoBLUE
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I went to The Preakness in 2007 and it was crazy.  It's BYOB and anything goes.  I saw high school aged kids walking around the infield bombed.  They line all the port-a-pottys up and kids "run the gauntlet" on top of them while getting pelted with beer cans:

The Belmont was much more reserved.  They don't sell tickets for the infield and it seemed like there were a lot of rich NYC socialites there.  It was an awsome experience all the same though.  When they came around the last turn the excitment in the stands was palpable.  You can't really duplicate that feeling in any other sport.

Traveling to Louisville for the Derby is a dream of mine.  I'd love to do all 3 races in the same year.

 

 

"fumbles the snap, takes off. . ."

(9/5/09)

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May 6th, 2011 at 2:22 PM | Preakness (Score:1)
ak47
Joined: 05/05/2011
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Haha i grew up about 2 minutes from pimlico race course and its a crazy atmosphere, its not for everyone but I love it happens.  My friends always have a party every year where we just walk around the neighberhood collecting beers all the drunk people left behind and have a party that night, we generally easily clear 200 beers without paying a dime, good times.

May 6th, 2011 at 2:35 PM | You probably got a few of my (Score:2)
MAgoBLUE
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You probably got a few of my beers in 2007.  We were having a really hard time finding a cab after the race and decided to ditch our cooler and lawn chairs on the side of the road cause we were sick of carrying them.

 

 

"fumbles the snap, takes off. . ."

(9/5/09)

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May 6th, 2011 at 12:53 PM | i always got the impression (Score:1)
bluetell
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i always got the impression that the only people who cared about horse racing were gamblers and middle-to-old aged white people who wear sundresses and big floppy hats

Rudy watches inspirational movies about Shawn Hunwick

 

May 6th, 2011 at 3:19 PM | Don't forget about (Score:1)
NomadicBlue
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the horse steroid dealers - aka horse vets.  The Derby is where they can unveil each year's latest steroid coctail. 

Journal Entry - Day 782 of living amongst inbreds - Actually heard this today, "I don't see what the big deal is.  All he was doin' was protectin' the players. What's wrong with that?" 

May 6th, 2011 at 1:14 PM | I live here in Louisville Ky (Score:2)
MWW6T7
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I live here in Louisville Ky and have been to the Oaks and Derby many times. If you have never been I would highly recommend attending at least once. The atmosphere is amazing and the whole city gets behind the event. The schools even close on Friday because there is such a large amount of teachers calling in to go to the track and they can't find enough subs. As for the Derby, I really like Archarcharch even though he drew the 1 spot. I also like Summer Soiree today in the Oaks and might throw Daisy Devine in with a couple others on an exotic bet as a long shot. So far today at the Oaks, the jockey Julian Leparoux has been on fire, winnin 3 of the first 4 and coming in second in the other. He has a lot of mounts this weekend so keep an eye on him.

"Tequila on the reg, chicks on the reg, fashions on the reg.  Living the life most men can only dream of" - Kenny Powers

May 6th, 2011 at 1:32 PM | Thanks for the tip on Julian (Score:2)
MAgoBLUE
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Thanks for the tip on Julian Leparoux.  I'll definitely take that into consideration.

It sounds like an awesome weekend for the whole city.

 

 

"fumbles the snap, takes off. . ."

(9/5/09)

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May 6th, 2011 at 2:41 PM | HMMM... (Score:1)
BrewCityBlue
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interesting that Julian Leparoux is on the derby favorite, Dialed In...

HAIL.

"Where's the threat? Oh, it's right here, and it's devouring us alive." -Ace<

May 6th, 2011 at 1:16 PM | ArchArchArch should be the (Score:2 Informative)
MaizeRAGE in FLA
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ArchArchArch should be the clear favorite with the year he had but I wouldn't be surprised if Shackleford took the whole deal either. From what I've read outside of ArchArchArch he's had the best week of training and looks to push.

"Every fan wants to win, and the most vocal ones demand to win. No problem. Just don't be a hypocrite and hope to reap the benefits without any risk."

May 6th, 2011 at 1:23 PM | I've never followed horse (Score:1)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 28961

I've never followed horse racing, but I like how there's this huge, all-day buildup for an event that you can miss entirely if you go to the bathroom at the wrong moment.  

May 6th, 2011 at 1:26 PM | I was waiting for someone to (Score:0)
May 6th, 2011 at 1:42 PM | I too live in Louisville and (Score:1)
ACarter1_UM
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I too live in Louisville and will be going to the race tomorrow.  It really is a special event and is something you should go to once in your life. My pick is Shackleford and if the track is off, I am going with Soldat.

May 6th, 2011 at 1:47 PM | Been to 1 Derby, 4 (Score:1)
tommya14
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 69

Been to 1 Derby, 4 Preaknesses, and 2 Belmonts.  I did a Triple Crown myself as I attended all 3 races in 2004.  That was the year Smarty Jones almost won the Triple Crown.  The crowd at the Belmont went from extremely loud around the last turn with Smarty Jones leading to silence as he lost.  It was like the Hail Mary game with Colorado where people were just shocked.  Plan to attend another Derby just can't this year.

May 6th, 2011 at 4:42 PM | I agree. I would love to be (Score:4 Informative)
MWW6T7
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I agree. I would love to be able to do a survey on purchases of them. I would bet the majority of them that are sold are to out of town visitors. More of a novelty drink. Everyone I know here in town says they are the most disgusting thing ever made.

"Tequila on the reg, chicks on the reg, fashions on the reg.  Living the life most men can only dream of" - Kenny Powers

May 6th, 2011 at 1:57 PM | Compelling case from Slate (Score:1)
ThWard
Joined: 07/10/2008
MGoPoints: 2627

Root for horses without their manhood in tact:

http://www.slate.com/id/2293126/ 

May 6th, 2011 at 1:58 PM | I went last year and has a (Score:2)
icefins26
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I went last year and has a blast, even though we got like 4 inches of rain.  It's an unbelievable experience that everyone has to enjoy once.

Without further ado, my top three horses:

1.)  Archarcharch

2.)  Nehro

3.)  Shackleford

May 6th, 2011 at 2:23 PM | Calvin Borel (Score:2 Funny)
mgoviking5
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I don't typically lose the Kentucky Derby, but when I do, I pound Dos Esquis  in the locker room.

Hail To the Victors...In Ohio

May 6th, 2011 at 11:54 PM | I've been to several Kentucky Derby's. (Score:1)
M-Dog
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It's something you have to do at least once in your life.

We would party all day in the infield.  We would bet on each of the races before the actual Derby (there were nine races, the KY Derby was the eighth race).  We would not actually see the races because we were too busy partying, so we would just check who won/placed/showed after the race to see if we won any money. 

However, for the Derby itself we would drop everything and try to see the race.  We would start out at the first corner and watch them come down the home stretch and around the first corner.  Then we would quickly fight our way through the crowds to the finish line. 

The trick was to watch the horses come down the home stretch and then when everyone's attention was on the horses, climb up the infield fence so that we had a view of them finishing from about 20 feet in the air.  It was very very cool.

 

M'Dog

May 7th, 2011 at 3:12 PM | Got my bets in!!! (Score:1)
BrewCityBlue
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It's not incredibly smart to spread money all over the derby.

Usually i would just have a horse to win, maybe a longshot if i like their chances, maybe do a $2 exacta or trifecta just for fun.

But, it's the derby, and I went a little, er... a lot crazy. It is so wide open this year i had a tough time throwing some of these horses out...

Took Nehro, Archarcharch, Mucho Macho Man to WIN

Dialed In, Twinspired, Soldat ACROSS THE BOARD

Wife picked 2 hourses for a $2 exacta: Nehro + Twinspired

Daugther picked 3 horses for a $2 trifecta: Midnight Interlude + Nehro + Comma to the Top (Wow, i hope this one hits!)

Nehro is the horse that affects the most of my tickets, so i suppose he's my main rooting interest.

Warning: this is not a smart way to win money when horse betting. However, it can be quite fun, and i can still win something if i hit multiple tickets. My goal is just to enjoy it and break even, and hope like hell my daughter's trifecta hits.

Happy Derby Day to all.

 

 

HAIL.

"Where's the threat? Oh, it's right here, and it's devouring us alive." -Ace<

May 7th, 2011 at 6:46 PM | Disappointing to see that (Score:1)
MaizeRAGE in FLA
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Disappointing to see that happen to Archarcharch.. That horse can fly and probably would have finished within the top 3.

"Every fan wants to win, and the most vocal ones demand to win. No problem. Just don't be a hypocrite and hope to reap the benefits without any risk."

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