It is the richest deal for a pitcher in MLB history at $30.7M per year. Kershaw can opt out after five years.
Good for him. I hope he stays healthy and everyone gets their money's worth.
Prediction: within two years they'll desperately want to unload this contract.
Kershaw has 4 full seasons left before he turns 30. The last three years he's won the Cy Young, finished 2nd to lucky-ass knuckleballer RA Dickey, and won the Cy Young again. He's had an ERA under 3.00 the last five years in a row (basically every full season in the majors).
With no injuries and no lack of physical tools (this isn't a small guy overthrowing), there really isn't a safer bet to pay big bucks to.
It seems safe. But watch - a year from now he'll have Tommy John surgery or something equally scary.
It's the Law of Giant MLB Contracts. Above a certain threshold (somewhere in the $20M/season range), these deals backfire with crazy regularity.
Eh, John Danks was healthy and had been solid (obviously nowhere near as good as Kershaw) and the Sox gave him a 5 year, 65 million extension, and he had shoulder surgery a month or two into the season after he signed that extension. Past injuries can be a decent indicator of future injuries (i.e., the injury-prone guy) but pitchers just have their arms go boom sometimes.
But by that logic, you would never give anybody more than a year or two on his contract, at which point you have zero chance to getting/keeping guys like Kershaw. This particular deal is way more likely to work out than most.
A little OT but can I ask why you say RA Dickey was lucky to win the Cy Young Award? Yes, Kershaw had an excellent season in 2012 and certainly a reasonable case could be made to vote for Kershaw over RA. But RA Dickey had some amazing statistics including an xFIP 3.27, 4.26 K/BB ratio, 69% strike percentage, and a really impressive 82% quality starts.
But rather, Dickey was just lucky to have that good of a year out of the blue. A 37 year old knuckleballer riding the wind to that kind fo season isn't a particularly replicable event, as evidenced by the rest of the guy's career.
He's 25 and shows no signs of slowing down. I LOVE Verlander and say this is at worst an equal if not better contract from an ownership and team perspective than his.
Unless the Tigers are willing to shell out that kind of money for a pitcher, I think they will trade Max Scherzer...it makes no sense for them to lose him for nothing in free agency next year.
No way. He won't bring full return value with teams knowing he will be a free agent and the Tigers go from World Series contenders with Max to likely not be make the playoffs without him. Unless they got a major league ready #2 starter in return, which they won't.
They would still make the playoffs.
His deal last year is 180 to upwards of 210 if he hits his incentives
Max has a baseline now and should be looking for at least 25k per year.
25k per hour
More like 25k per out with 25k more per strikeout...
Straight performance based like that? The number would have to be much more than 25K, but there's something to be said for rewarding performance only. Of course it couldn't work because of injuries and managers taking pitchers out, but it's an intriguing thought..
Ricky Williams and Master P disagree.
If you think about it, Kershaw makes $30 million a year, he starts 32ish games a year, pitches for maybe 3 hours a start on the high end, which would be around $300,000 per hour.
If Scherzer made $30m, that woudl be a cool $125,000 per strikeout (240 in 2013).
That amount of money in hard to wrap your head around.
Heard on the radio it comes to about 1 million a start.
in his 5 full years, he is 31 games over .500, which is very good. that's about 6 games over .500 per year. if the avg starter makes $10M, the Dodgers are paying him an add'l $20M for those 6 wins. seems a bit steep to me.
At 80 pitches a game, on average, dude is making $12,500 everytime the ball leaves his hand!
Certainly be a reference point for max, but in no way does his track record compare to kershaw's. Clayton has been the best pitcher in the nl every year for at least the last three, and possibly four. Ax has one dominant season and a bunch of inconsistency outside of it.
I get that you SHOULd pay based on future expectations, but if max tried to argue he was comparable to kershaw I would respectively disagree. More risk, and less reward, I would argue. Kershaw at his best is better Han max at his.
I would think Scherzer would get closer to what Greinke got than what Kershaw did.
Still think Tigers should've gone with trading Scherzer over Fister. Long term wise, Fister will be better and have a slower decline. I'm no expert but I've read a lot of articles saying Max's throwing motion is volatile
... And say that no professional athlete is *worth* that kind of money. Kind of depressing to think about how much these guys are getting paid to play a sport who's entire point to get people like us to spend money to watch them.
That being said - I hope my son can be good enough to get a plush MLB contract. Of course, with 162 games MLB players "earn" their pay more than any of the other sports (pitchers excluded).
he plays every 5th day. wow!
Hey, it's nothing compared to what the owners are raking in for the "work" they do.
Athletes make progressively more, owners make progressively more and it's all offset by higher ticket prices. More and more the NFL is pricing average people out (I live in Dallas so it's always sold out and always expensive, maybe it's different in Detroit?). I've been to exactly 1 Cowboys game and that was a pre-season "game" and the tickets were free. I've actually been to more UM events at Jerry World ('Bama in football and Florida in basketball) than I have Cowboys games.
Same thing goes for baseball - I've got a friend who works for them and I can get half price tickets anytime I want and when you combine the parking and all of that it's still more expensive than going out for a really nice dinner.
The fans pay higher prices but what about the non-fans who pay for the stadiums?
*Not going political just making a statement as someone paying for several stadiums of teams I don't care to see.
The Dodgers are still moving full steam ahead to get Tanaka from Japan too....who has the same agent as Kershaw and Greinke. They are throwing crazy money out there (although I thought Kershaw would cost 300 mill.). I hope he stays heathy and has another post season...I am still hesitant of signing pitchers to huge contracts...Kevin Brown still stings to this day.
Matt Stafford's brother is a good pitcher. Worth $87687698? Not so sure about that.
Jesus H. What does someone do with all that money?
Have a good time, all the time!
Ask congress, they're gonna spend half of it, lol
He's worth the money for a team like L.A., but he'll be back on the market in 5 years at 30 with another massive contract waiting for him.
When I was 25, I made $30,000. That was back in '85 so with inflation (umm, carry the 2...) Nope. Not even close.
made a very reasonable contract for a pitcher who is 25 and already got Cy Young and appears to be getting better and better every year. The good thing about his contract is he'll be able to pitch through his prime which will maximize his value. Good deal by the Dodgers and Kershaw all around.
Great deal for him. It's absurd how handsomely baseball players get paid but hey if a team is offerin'...
price per ticket just went up 10- $30/each. I'm tired of rising salaries because it always ends up meaning rising ticket prices. Who the hell needs $30/million a year to PLAY baseball??? Salaries are getting downright insane.
He won't opt out unless he thinks he can do better than $30M/yr, and if he thinks that then either baseball as a whole is awash in even more money than they have today (in which case the Dodgers got an advance discount), and/or he's been healthy and great for the first five years (in which the Dodgers may end up having underpaid him).
That said, he's a better bet than most, but no pitcher is a good bet. They get hurt and/or lose effectiveness much more than position players. I am surprised that teams seem to favor 30M/yrX7 versus 35M/yrX4 or something similar ... The shorter the deal, the better your information and the lower your risk.