OT: Buckle up! Tigers & White Sox tied for first with 8 games left.
Lot of Tiger fans and a lot of White Sox fans on Mgo. Who you got? Tigers or Sox.
Have to admit I had about given up on Tigers, but these pesky Sox won't let the Tigers fade away.
Preemptive strike: Yes I realize Tigers or White Sox would be buried in the AL East, but they ain't in the AL East. Somebody going to win this thing; Might as well be the Tigers.
Added bonus of watching Miguel Cabrera's fantastic run at a Triple Crown in the heat of the Division Race,
Caveat to stat geeks: Yes I know there are more accurate measurements of a player than Triple Crown Stats, but when you look at the players who have won Triple Crowns, combined with the scarcity of Triple Crowns, it would be a monumental accomplishment.
Ok. Here is remaining schedule for the contenders for the AL Central Championship: who wins this thing. My Mgo points are on the Tigers of course.
White Sox:
| SEPTEMBER | OPPONENT | TIME (ET) | CHW PITCHER | OPP. PITCHER |
| Wed, Sep 26 | vs | 8:10 PM | Santiago (3-1) | Masterson (11-15) |
| Cleveland | ||||
| Thu, Sep 27 | vs | 8:10 PM | Peavy (11-12) | Shields (15-9) |
| Tampa Bay | ||||
| Fri, Sep 28 | vs | 8:10 PM | Quintana (6-5) | Hellickson (9-10) |
| Tampa Bay | ||||
| Sat, Sep 29 | vs | 4:05 PM | Floyd (10-11) | Moore (10-11) |
| Tampa Bay | ||||
| Sun, Sep 30 | vs | 2:10 PM | Liriano (6-12) | Price (18-5) |
| Tampa Bay | ||||
| OCTOBER | OPPONENT | TIME (ET) | CHW PITCHER | OPP. PITCHER |
| Mon, Oct 1 | @ | 7:05 PM | Santiago (3-1) | Kluber (2-4) |
| Cleveland | ||||
| Tue, Oct 2 | @ | 7:05 PM | Peavy (11-12) | Masterson (11-15) |
| Cleveland | ||||
| Wed, Oct 3 | @ | 7:05 PM | ||
| Cleveland | ||||
Tigers:
| SEPTEMBER | OPPONENT | TIME (ET) | DET PITCHER | OPP. PITCHER |
| Wed, Sep 26 | vs | 7:05 PM | Porcello (9-12) | Guthrie (7-12) |
| Kansas City | ||||
| Thu, Sep 27 | vs | 1:05 PM | Fister (10-9) | Mendoza (8-9) |
| Kansas City | ||||
| Fri, Sep 28 | @ | 8:10 PM | Scherzer (16-7) | Diamond (12-8) |
| Minnesota | ||||
| Sat, Sep 29 | @ | 4:05 PM | Verlander (16-8) | Walters (2-4) |
| Minnesota | ||||
| Sun, Sep 30 | @ | 2:10 PM | Sanchez (9-13) | Hendriks (1-8) |
| Minnesota | ||||
| OCTOBER | OPPONENT | TIME (ET) | DET PITCHER | OPP. PITCHER |
| Mon, Oct 1 | @ | 8:10 PM | Porcello (9-12) | Chen (11-13) |
| Kansas City | ||||
| Tue, Oct 2 | @ | 8:10 PM | ||
| Kansas City | ||||
| Wed, Oct 3 | @ | 8:10 PM | ||
| Kansas City | ||||
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/det/detroit-tigers
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/chw/chicago-white-sox
September 26th, 2012 at 8:05 AM ^
Why isn't Chris Sale starting in the next 7 games?
September 26th, 2012 at 8:19 AM ^
As of this morning -
After planning to give the prized left-hander an extra day off, the Sox changed their minds and will keep him on four days' rest with an outing Saturday against the Rays.
September 26th, 2012 at 8:14 AM ^
I'm rooting for the Tigers but their thing this year is going out and losing a couple games right after they have tied the White Sox in the division. If they could finally get over the hump, I'd really appreciate it. But the way they have been playing this year, I fear the season will end with them one game behind.
September 26th, 2012 at 8:59 AM ^
I'm a Sox fan and I've been waiting for the Tigers to pass us for quite some time. I thought the post All Star break surge would result in them cruising to the division title. Of course, both teams have played shitty enough that I can now look forward to being "that close."
On the positive side, I was worried that the Sox would slip down in the division with a manager that had never managed a single game. I have been quite happy with their performance for most of the season.
September 26th, 2012 at 11:56 AM ^
I'm also a Tigers fan, but I feel like they are going to slip on what should be some easy games. The Tigers have the more favorable schedule, especially when looking at the starting pitcher match-ups for both teams, but the Tigers haven't had much urgency since the last tie during the series with the Sox. I think it comes down to which team get more fired up for the last eight games, and I don't think it will be the Tigers. I hope I'm wrong.
September 26th, 2012 at 12:20 PM ^
I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will come down to who plays better baseball for the last eight games. Pretty sure neither team will have a hard time getting fired up.
September 26th, 2012 at 8:38 AM ^
GO TIGS!
September 26th, 2012 at 8:42 AM ^
Simply based on the schedule, you'd have to say the Tigers have the edge. But then you look at the fact that we dropped 2 out of 3 against Minnesota at home last weekend and KC is always an annoying team to play, and that makes it too close to call. Obviously, I want the Tigers to win it, but I'm not making any predictions. That will make it easier to cope with if we don't win it. I hope.
September 26th, 2012 at 10:15 AM ^
Simply based on the schedule, you'd have to say the Tigers have the edge.
I'm not so sure about that. I created a chart that shows how the two teams have fared versus their remaining opponents over the season and over the last 6 games.
| TIGERS VS | W | L | LAST 6 |
| KANSAS CITY | 8 | 3 | 3-3 |
| MINNESOTA | 8 | 7 | 3-3 |
| TOTAL | 16 | 10 | 6-6 |
I would be nervous as a Tigers fan that they are only 0.500 versus those teams in recent history.
| WHITE SOX VS | W | L | LAST 6 |
| CLEVELAND | 9 | 5 | 5-1 |
| TAMPA BAY | 3 | 0 | 3-0 |
| TOTAL | 12 | 5 | 8-1 |
I'm nervous as a White Sox fan that they will split with the Rays at best and do the same versus the Indians. My guess is that the Sox go 0.500 to finish the season and miss the playoffs by a game.
September 26th, 2012 at 11:48 AM ^
I thought about this a little in a meeting after I read your post because it was also my thought that the Sox would split with the Rays in this upcoming series, then I built that into my own calculations:
- The Tigers are 8-3 agains the Royals (per your chart) and 8-7 agains the Twins. This corresponds to a 0.727 winning percentage agains the Royals, estimating a 4-1 performance in the final games against them. For the Twins, we have a 0.533 winning percentage, so if this is a predictive factor, this series is a bit of a toss up, but I rounded up to say we could go 2-1 here.
- Assuming the Sox split the Rays series (which is likely, based on matchups, I think), then that is 2-2 right there, which I combined with the 0.643 winning percentage against Cleveland, estimating a 3-1 performance against them.
Since both teams are 82-72 with eight games left, the estimate is a 6-2 performance for Detroit and a 5-3 performance for Chicago. Detroit would be up by a game.
Sort of QED. Hopefully, I am right, being a Tigers fan.
September 26th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^
I think it will probably go down exactly how you described it.
September 26th, 2012 at 8:57 AM ^
This is the start to the 2012 Detroit Tigers run to a world championship. Cabby for MVP, Scherzer for Cy Young. Nothing can stop us now.
September 26th, 2012 at 9:53 AM ^
WOO!! BRAVES CLINCHED A PLAYOFF SPOT! Still technically in it for the NL East, but unlikely. Washington does has a tougher slate to finish out the season (2 @ Philly, 3 @ St Louis, 3 vs. Philly) compared to the Braves (2 vs Miami, 3 vs Mets, 3 @ Pittsburgh), but the wild card is wrapped up.
As for ChiSox and Tigers, amazing how neither team is pulling away. They've both definitely had their struggles down the stretch. Based on recent performance and remaining schedules, it's maybe Tigers by a hair, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see a one-game playoff.
September 26th, 2012 at 4:25 PM ^
Yeah we're not gonna catch the Nats, although it'd be a nice little reversal of fortunes after last year's debacle. Assuming we can win the WC game (a big assumption I know), who'd you rather get in the NLDS, Nats or Reds?
September 26th, 2012 at 10:15 AM ^
What happens if they end up tied? Does the new wild card format change anything? (used to be a one game playoff to break ties)
September 26th, 2012 at 10:23 AM ^
I imagine they'll play a one game playoff if they end the regular season tied.
September 26th, 2012 at 10:31 AM ^
September 26th, 2012 at 10:48 AM ^
I don't think it works that way. Remember, the Tigers and Twins played a one-game playoff in 2009. I don't know who won the season series that year, but I don't think it was tied, since I believe teams play 19 games a year against intradivision teams.
September 26th, 2012 at 11:01 AM ^
September 26th, 2012 at 10:59 AM ^
win AL central
September 26th, 2012 at 11:29 AM ^
All the advanced stats sort of pale in comparison to the fact that nobody has won the triple crown since 1967. If Miggy pulls it off, he should win the MVP.
Unfortunately, i've just never gotten that "it" feeling from this Tigers club this year. Verlander says they play best with their backs against the wall, but it seems like that makeup game with Chicago and the Minnesota double header were backs against the wall kind of games.
So i'm hoping, i just don't like the feeling of traveling to KC and Minny with an offense that will put up 12 runs one day and then 1-3 in the next four games.
September 26th, 2012 at 11:47 AM ^
September 26th, 2012 at 12:23 PM ^
And to the players themselves, the triple crown stats are what matters. There's not that much prestige attached to winning the OPS title.
September 26th, 2012 at 1:18 PM ^
September 26th, 2012 at 1:42 PM ^
Can we go one baseball thread without re-re-re-hashing the validity of certain stats?
September 26th, 2012 at 1:57 PM ^
September 26th, 2012 at 2:01 PM ^
I think the point was more that, regardless of how valid advanced sabermetrics may be, it's the traditional stats that the players focus on.
September 26th, 2012 at 3:05 PM ^
Runs scored is a pretty major traditional statistic, and if Trout wins the MVP much of ther reason will be those and stolen bases. It was decided that for offensive production ranking that RBIs are more important than runs because you can score a run any time you get on base, be it HBP, a single/double/triple/HR, or a walk. Leadoff batters tend to score runs because they tend to be leadoff batters because they tend to be good at getting on base.
What's interesting about these "cute" triple crown stats is that baseball is a game where history can be relatively well compared to the present based on the traditional stats. 1967 was the last time someone led all three triple crown stats at the end of the year. Does that make Cabrerra the best player in the game? No, but it puts him in some rarified baseball air. The MVP isn't a statistical award in that it's not a simple formula. Cabrerra will win the MVP over Trout if he gets the triple crown because it's such a rare feat, and because like the name says, it's "most valuable" not "best".
Also, RBI's do have context. Look at Cabrerra's BA and OBP for it. A power hitter can have great RBI numbers and shite BA and OBP numbers. A great hitter will have high numbers in all three catagories and a really great hitter will hit a bunch of HRs to multiple fields.
September 26th, 2012 at 4:10 PM ^
Should we award the MVP based on the rarity of ones acheivement or the value of their play?
September 26th, 2012 at 4:27 PM ^
leading the league in BA, HR, and RBI makes one pretty damned valuable. Realistically, this year could go either to Cabrerra or Trout and there are very good arguments for both. But given that one is a rookie and the other (if he achieves it) will stack an achievement not done since '67 onto an already impressive resume tilts the decision in Cabrerra's favor.
A guy isn't going to win the MVP based on hitting for the cycle ten times in a season just because it's really rare. The triple crown isn't special because it's rare; it's rare because it's really hard to pull off. Even the juicers never managed it.
September 26th, 2012 at 4:47 PM ^
Just to clarify, you're saying that experience, and previous seasons (resume), two things that have no impact on a players value whatsoever, somehow play a role in who is the more valuable player?
As far as rarity of acheievements go, it's not hard to select random criteria and make anybodys acheievements, even bad ones, into something rare.
Trout is the first the player since Ty Cobb in 1907 to post an OPS+ over 165 as a 20 year old, that's far rarer than Cabrera being the 12th player to win the Triple Crown.
The rarity of achievements, the age and experience of the players, and past seasons have no impact whatsoever on the value those players provide.
Cabrera has a slight edge with the bat, and yes it is slight, while Trout has a large edge in baserunning, negating Cabreras excess value with the bat. They're pretty much even on the offensive side of the ball, and Trout plays GG defense while Cabrera plays below average. Trout has been more valuable as a player than Cabrera.
That said, I hope to see Cabrera win the triple crown, and would be pleased to see him win the MVP as well.
September 26th, 2012 at 12:35 PM ^
I'm going to say that the Tigers drop 6 out of their last 8 but win the pennant as the Sox lose 7 of their last 8.
September 26th, 2012 at 1:06 PM ^
September 26th, 2012 at 3:22 PM ^
I've had enough Indians depression to last me a life time. Sadly it's been a lifetime...
September 26th, 2012 at 3:25 PM ^
If Detroit doesn't gack away any of those games, I see them winning 6 of the next 8 (because they'll probably lose at least once against KC and Minny). I don't see Chicago being able to do any better, so hopefully this will end with the division title everyone expected.
September 26th, 2012 at 3:40 PM ^
If that happens then that means they go 11-5 since they lost to the Sox on the 17th and fell 3 games back, which is the record that most were predicting the Tigers would need to win the division.
I hope it happens, but I'll feel a lot better if Porcello wins tonight. They really need to finish off this homestand with a sweep of the Royals and put themselves in a position where they probably don't have to sweep either of their road series.