OT: Are things wrongs with the Red Wings?

Submitted by Seth on

 

META OT NOTE: There is nothing in this post about Michigan except that Michigan is the state where the Red Wings happen to play; if you think this is an abuse of my blogging powers let me know in the comments so that I may summarily smite you. Brian has his soccer, me and Ace, we're Wingnuts. Deal.

So I was screwing around with a Wings stats database to try to string some thoughts together about the losing (oh the damn losing) which mercifully ended this weekend. Since it became a blog-like substance, I figured I'd throw it up here for the rest of the hometown fans of Blue who share a secret love affair with Red.

The burning question in Hockeytown this year is if the early losing streak was a blip or symptomatic of something very wrong. The easy answer is to say Detroit's not scoring enough. This is true:

 
Goals (Shoot-out goals excised):
In wins: 3.83 per game
In losses: 1.00 per game
Average: 2.42 per game
Last year's avg: 3.13 per game

Scoring is significantly down from last year. But is this from a lack of effort, e.g. are they not getting enough shots off?
 
Shots:
In wins: 39.83 per game
In losses: 33 per game
Average: 36.42
Last year's avg: 33.62 per game
 
Nope. There's a not insubstantial but not really that big differential in shot totals between the good games and the bad. They're getting more shots off than last year, which in this small sample size basically means they're getting off the same number of shots as last year. However it could be the quality of the shots are down? 
 
Shooting %-age (again, shoot-out goals don't count)
In wins: 9.62%
In losses: 3.03%
Average: 6.64%
Last year's avg: 9.32% (12.34% in wins, 5.46% in losses)
 
Yo! Last year the Wings had an equally large disparity between their accuracy when winning  and losing. In fact, most teams do, as a team playing with a lead tends to put more defenders in shooting lanes and trade a measure of puck possession for low-percentage shots.
 
However the overall shooting percentage tells a big story. The Red Wings are dead last in the NHL in shooting percentage. This is a "pucks aren't going in" problem of high magnitude; Detroit's scoring a third less often when they get the puck on net; in just the nights the Wings won they're scoring at the average clip from last year. This is what's broken; either they're taking worse shots or they're getting turned away by good goalies or they've just been really unlucky.
 
Is it personnel, as Mooney suggested?
  • Brian Rafalski, 2010-'11: 4 goals in 106 shots = 3.8%
  • Ian White, 2011-'12: 2 goals in 36 shots = 5.6%

Not there, unless it's in Raffi's passing.

  • Modano/Draper combined 2010-'11: 10 goals in 136 shots = 7.35%
  • Cory Emmerton 2011-'12: 1 goal in 11 shots = 9.10%

Not there.

Player Goals SOG 2011 ShP 2010 ShP Diff
Henrik Zetterberg 3 50 6.00% 7.80% -1.80%
Pavel Datsyuk 2 42 4.80% 16.80% -12.00%
Danny Cleary 1 36 2.80% 13.50% -10.70%
Nicklas Lidstrom 5 34 14.70% 9.10% +5.60%
Johan Franzen 5 26 19.20% 11.30% +7.90%
Valtteri Filppula 2 24 8.30% 13.90% -5.60%
Darren Helm 1 23 4.30% 6.80% -2.50%
Justin Abdelkader 1 22 4.50% 5.40% -0.90%
Niklas Kronwall 2 22 9.10% 8.40% +0.70%
Todd Bertuzzi 1 17 5.90% 11.60% -5.70%
Jonathan Ericsson 0 16 0.00% 3.40% -3.40%
Tomas Holmstrom 1 16 6.30% 14.40% -8.10%
Brad Stuart 0 15 0.00% 3.70% -3.70%
Jiri Hudler 2 12 16.70% 9.50% +7.20%
Drew Miller 0 12 0.00% 11.80% -11.80%
Patrick Eaves 0 11 0.00% 12.00% -12.00%
Jakub Kindl 0 11 0.00% 3.20% -3.20%

There. It's not Zetterberg, although the dropoff in his accuracy since January last year is noted. Datsyuk and Cleary and Filpulla are way, way down, Holmstrom isn't getting the deflections like he's used to, and Eaves and Miller, Detroit's garbage goal guys can't get a puck in. Among Detroit's top shooters only Lidstrom, who had an uncharacteristically bad year last year, and Franzen, whose 2010-'11 season was slowed by his injury and creaky comeback, are doing better.

It could be their shots just aren't going in, and it could be that Ian White is passing to the bolded guys instead of Brian Rafalski. That it has affected the top scoring line (Datsyuk's) and the checkers the most suggests it might be Rafalski's passing that's missing. Extrapolating his season numbers from last year Raffi would have 8.38 assists and be a +2; White so far has 4 assists but is a +4.

One way to get a lot of good looks is to get them on the power play. Maybe Detroit's just getting fewer 5-on-4 and 5-on-3 opportunities?
 
Power play opportunities:
In wins: 4.67 per game
In losses: 3.50 per game
Average: 4.08 per game
Last year's avg: 3.67 per game
 
Sum PIM Disparity (Opp penalty mins minus DET's)
In wins: +36 (+6.00 per game)
In losses: -20 (-3.33 per game
Average: +16 (+1.33 per game)
Last year's avg: +23 (+0.28 per game)
 
Not at all. That one Minnesota game that caused city-wide cranial pyrotechnics last week nonwithstanding, the stripes in their usual early-season, setting-the-tone way are giving the chumps, dicks, wusses, douchebags, assholes, pricks, cheaters, bitches, whores, sluts, and cocksuckers plenty of time to think about what they've done.
 
I expect the penalty disparity will normalize eventually; however right now there's a huge difference in PIMS between the wins and the losses. In their wins they've had way more powerplay opportunities than the competition, and it's slightly less pronounced but still a big number the other way for the losses. Small sample size and all, but who's taking penalties are having an abnormal effect.
 
Last year Detroit actually averaged more of a power play advantage in their losses (+0.37 per game) as in their wins (+0.21 per game).  This seems strange but remember that the Wings every year are one of the most disciplined teams in the league, leading to very low overall PIM totals compared to other teams -- it's said, anecdotally, that the only team that takes fewer penalties than Detroit is the team that's currently playing Detroit. The corrollary to this is the NHL's tendency to penalize the team with the lead has an abnormally large effect on the low-total Wings.
 
It's not a fluke that the Red Wings are hovering around .500 with a 2.40 GFA and 2.40 GAA. And it's certainly an offense problem because that 2.40 GAA is the 9th best in the NHL right now. But they're getting off plenty of shots. If Detroit was scoring at the same percentage as last year that's a 3.39 goals-per-game, or one more goal per game than they're getting now. It's either the shot quality has diminished or just lots of really bad luck early on.
 
So, culprits? 
 
Knowing Holmstrom as we do, the large number of "shots" for him suggest they're getting set up and making deflections. The problem is those shots are not going in, especially for Cleary, Datsyuk, and the 2nd Generation Grind Line. Get those guys going and this is among the top 6 teams in the NHL. Considering how fluky those numbers above look, I'd guess this happens.

yeahrice

November 7th, 2011 at 4:39 PM ^

Maybe I'm being a homer, but I think the shots just are not going in for the Wings right now. As you found in your analysis, the shots are being fired, the quality of the shots are about average for what they should be, but they are not resulting in goals. I think the Wings will be fine. It seems that the team is just waiting for the goals to come and in one of Lidstrom's post game interviews last week I got the feeling that this is the prevailing mood on team. But what do I know, I'm just a fan.

JClay

November 7th, 2011 at 4:44 PM ^

I can't believe its Rafalski. His play had fallen off SO MUCH and White is no shlump. Their defense looks incredible. I really just think they hit a 5 game slump there, and since we're 12 games into the season, it looks like a huge deal when over the course of the year its a small sample size.

Also, we have something like 6 million in cap space going into the trade deadline. If something is wrong, we can go pick up someone up, in theory. I'm not panicing when it comes to the Wings until at least January.

(META: The occasional Red Wings topic should definitely be allowed. Brian's thoughts aside, the Red Wings have ten times the interest on MGoBlog as MLS or EPL. It's Hockeytown, fergodsake.)

turtleboy

November 7th, 2011 at 6:54 PM ^

Rafalski, through injuries, had managed to put up a career high average this last year, 44 assists in only 63 games. 2008-09 was the most productive year of his entire career as well. His production was very much at his peak, but he was having trouble playing through so much joint pain every game.

mgobleu

November 7th, 2011 at 9:52 PM ^

Granted, I don't like why they've got the cap space, but I'm gonna be like a kid on Christmas coming up to the trade deadline if they haven't made a move before then.

Hockey is a weird ass sport, man. Not only that, but the Wings are a weird ass team. Some of the best players in the game, but also some of the streakiest. If we're in late December and haven't seen Pavel, Hank and the mule get hot a time or two, then I'll wonder if something's up.

On the topic of the Wings, I got the chance to meet Dan Cleary this summer. Couldn't have been more cool. Class guy.

James Burrill Angell

November 7th, 2011 at 4:46 PM ^

I appreciate all the statistical analysis but its pretty simple to me. The Wings are getting kind of old and haven't been developing the super young prospects that would fill in and be stars in the making while they did a year or two on the second or third lines since Datsyuk and Zetterberg came up. Its not really their fault. When you have prolonged success you don't get the top ten draft picks who are more likely to be those stars. Look at the teams on top now. For the most part they all spent a few years in the cellar, collected some very high draft picks that turned into stars three years later. The '09 Blackhawks are a perfect example.

KevbosLastingLessons

November 7th, 2011 at 7:46 PM ^

Well, a Datsyuk or Zetterberg only come around so often. I think Emmerton, Mursak, Tatar, and Nyquist have ability. And a lot of people believe Detroit had a couple steals this past draft. And don't worry about the blueline. Expect a trade deadline deal. (Bogosian...) Or they might go all out for Shea Weber next year. Hoo doggy. 

JClay

November 7th, 2011 at 4:55 PM ^

Aside from Lidstrom, the reigning Norris trophy winner, who are these old Red Wings, particularly amongst the forwards? Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Franzen are all <32, I think. Fillpula and Hudler are probably our next two best forwards and they're under 30. Our team has its lowest average age in seasons.

redhousewolverine

November 7th, 2011 at 5:55 PM ^

Yes, the theme is overrated and being in Chicago I get to hear it all the time, especially considering Hawks fans think they are running the Central even though we won it last year (then they go to the we won the Cup most recently to which I say we won it two years before you and were in the game the year before but they don't care). Nonetheless, Datsyuk is 33 and Franzen and Zetterberg are about 32. Cleary is 33 and Holmstrom is quite older. Bertuzzi is older and getting slower every year. Lidstrom isn't exactly what he used to be and is still great, particularly on the offensive side, but gets less time against the other teams best forwards then he used to. Are younger players really aren't that impressive. Hudler is incredibly overrated and although is playing better this year, still tends to be a liability on the  defensive side of the ice. Filps is good, but not great. We lack the developing elite talent (Datsyuk and Zetterberg) like they were when they won in 2002. We are getting older, but it isn't why we are losing.

teldar

November 7th, 2011 at 5:52 PM ^

I think part of it is that the quality youngsters are not coming up because their spots area being held by miller and eaves. It's time to lose some of the less skilled and bring others up. Kinda goes for holmstrom too.
Cicarelli was booted for Homer and McCarty. The wings have been less willing to give younger players a chance in the last 8 years. I think once upon a time tatar and nyquist would have already been with the wings.

redhousewolverine

November 7th, 2011 at 6:09 PM ^

There is some weight to the age aspect, but that is not completely it. Also, if your are equating top 10 draft picks to allstars like Zetterberg and Datysuk, you are making an incorrect comparison as both of them were drafted in the 7th and 6th rounds respectively. It is true our younger players are not elite talents, which is where the age thing kicks in as our elite players are all in their 30's.

I think the forgotten reason is that we are breaking in two new assistants also. The moving on of MacLean is huge as he was a good coach. Also, I haven't been able to watch as many of the games as I have a terrible cable program, but I have heard Datsyuk and Zettertits have been turning the puck over a lot more this year. Turnovers kill offensive momentum, especially from your two top players.

Additionally, I don't think it is necessarily Rafalski' absence, as he was becoming a liability on the defensive side of the puck and his offense had clearly lost luster. Yes, he moved the puck well out of our zone, but he did a poor job moving hte puck when it came to the neutral zone, particularly on the power play. Watching the PP we had in game 7 agains the Sharks last year with 4 minutes left was painful and Rafalski's turning the puck over only winded Zetterberg and Datsyuk, which resulted in them not being able to play the last play.

I think part of it might just be a bit of a slump, which the wings have done each of the last couple regular seasons at some point or another. I guess it is better to get it over with now (hopefully).

JeepinBen

November 7th, 2011 at 5:01 PM ^

Full Disclosure: Hawks Fan. Born in Chicago, went to Chicago Stadium. Respect the hell out of the Wings/consider you a great, quality rival, no real hate. Maybe only gameday hate

The wings have been an AMAZING franchise in terms of consistency in the last decade. You never rebuilt, you reloaded. In the 90s when your top players got old, you drafted gems. You had Yzerman and Co, and as they aged you drafted great young players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Your 3rd line eventually became your 1st line as your 1st liners got old. But the last few "retooling" periods you missed. Your young players aren't stars anymore. It doesn't take a ton, but when you miss on 2-3 drafts in a row, you're screwed. Look at the Colts, they're a good NFL analog. Maybe not nearly as many championships, but the consistency is similar (10+ wins how many times in a row?) When Marvin Harrison got old, Wayne moved up to the #1, and they drafted receivers who could step up. But they missed on their last few drafts. Donald Brown? etc.

The Wings haven't fallen nearly as bad as the Colts. The Wings are still Good to Very Good, but you're not going to be elite for another couple of draft cycles.

- just my opinion, no research involved. I'm a hockey nut too, so don't go hating just because I love the Blackhawks. And don't call me fair-weather either. I loved them in 1995 when I went to one of the final games at the Chicago Stadium. We sucked in 1995. And most of the last 20 years. We hit a few good drafts (Kane, Toews, Sharp) and now we're flying high. We'll see if we can keep it up with the Cap.

w2j2

November 7th, 2011 at 4:52 PM ^

And my theory is that the deaths of Brad McCollum and Ruslan Salei stopped the Wings in their tracks.

I think they are still grieving the loss of their friends, and are having trouble focusing enough intensity at hitting a piece of rubber into a net.

Seth

November 7th, 2011 at 5:02 PM ^

More like I read the last f-ing thing blaming Zetterberg I could stand then tried to prove or disprove all sorts of prevailing theories. It's not just that shooting percentage is down, it's that shooting percentage is basically down in a vacuum. Everything else is clicking along except some guys aren't making shots.

JimLahey

November 7th, 2011 at 5:07 PM ^

I think that is very interesting analysis. Having said that, I think it is just a simple case of the puck  not going in. I always say "sometimes she goes, sometimes she doesn't." It's the way she goes, and right now she isn't goin for the Wings. IMO they will break out of this slump because they have too much talent and experience not to. The bounces will start going their way.

My 0.02 on the long-term quality of the Wings is that they will probably come back down to earth in the next few years. How can they not? You can't stay elite forever, especially when you don't get high draft picks. They have managed to do it for this long because they picked up Zetterberg and Datsyuk in the late rounds, which was both great scouting and great luck. That is not likely to happen again. Their under 25 players and prospects are kind of "meh" but that is to be expected when you never get high draft picks.

 

Vivz

November 7th, 2011 at 5:33 PM ^

has been a lack of clutch goals, and a seeming high number of one loss goals/ot collapses. Not sure how accurate that is but thats just my epinion when watching randomly.  I'm still not that worried because the team will make the playoffs, and has been "old" for ages. If we're struggling at the ASB i might change my mind.

 

How is goalscoring across the league? Is it up/down or about the same? Or is this an isolated problem for the wings?

E.L. blue fan

November 7th, 2011 at 5:50 PM ^

the wings are more than fine. First, look at the division. We are 6 points out but have 2 games in hand.

We are younger than we have been in years, we have incredible depth in the organization (Smith and Nyquist who are all in GR could both be NHL players right now and don't forget that Mursak was suppose to be the big addition to the team from the farm this year and he hasn't played yet due to injury), and we have 5.6 million dollars in cap space for Holland to make a move at the deadline (top 6 winger please and thank you). We will once again coast into the playoffs. 

I do find it interesting how much Filpulla's shooting percentage has dropped this year, Babcock has been on him for years about shooting the puck more and this year (at least early on) he seemed to be doing that. As the year goes on I think one of two things happens here, either the puck starts going in for him and we have another dynamic two way forward to compliment Zetterberg and Datsyuk or else he goes back to being mostly a defensive specialist and picking his spots offensively, either way that shooting percentage will go up. 

the_dude

November 7th, 2011 at 11:25 PM ^

One thing with Filppula is Babcock was planing to play him on the wing alongside Zetterberg this season. That was what happened when the Wings were 5-0 and he got off to a good start. During the losing streak Zetterberg was moved over to Datsyuk's line and everyone struggled. In the Anaheim game Babcock put Filppula, Zetterberg and Franzen on the same line once again and they had a strong game. 

Filppula: 1a, +3

Franzen: 1g, 2a, +3

Zetterberg: 1g, +3

That's been Detroit's best line thus far.

BeileinBuddy

November 7th, 2011 at 6:16 PM ^

I also notice that a very small percentage of our shots from the point actually get on net. I've been raging at how many shots we've had blocked already this season. The puck is more likely to hit a defender's leg than the net, post, goalie, or Homer's deflecting stick.

Like watching 2003 vs. Anaheim on repeat.

MIdocHI

November 7th, 2011 at 6:18 PM ^

I have the Center Ice package and watch most of the games.  From my perspective, the team appears listless.  Most of these guys are not rah-rah guys anyway, starting from Lidstrom, the captain, and going down.  While they prefer to lead by example, it helps to have someone with a fiery temprament to rally the troops.  I think the intangibles, not the stats are the reason the Wings are in a bit of a slump.

There are a lot of factors to explain the listlessness.  Despite many of these players being young in years, they have played a lot of hockey.  Going deep in the playoffs every year will do that.  It must be difficult to get up for an October or November game with the Blue Jackets/Wilds/dregs of the NHL when you are used to playing high stakes games in May and June.

Also, as the saying goes- familiarity breeds contempt.  Complacency would probably be a better word for the Wings.  Babcock brought in a couple of new, different coaches to try to shake things up.  They have had the same team for years and some of the players take their roles for granted.  We need some new blood, let Nyquist, Emmerton, Brunstrom play.  Obtain some hungry veterans via trade.  The 1994-95 was a record-setting year, but we traded like 6 players from that team during the season of 1996-97, the year we ended the cup drought.  Shanahan and others were key to winning that cup even though our regular season record was worse.

The Wings will make the playoffs, but I think they can be a true contender by using that cap space, trading/obtaining a few players, and letting the youngsters play.

littlebrownjug

November 7th, 2011 at 6:29 PM ^

Jarncrock (spelling?), Pukinnen, Nyquist, Tatar and Jurco all look like potential top 6 players, and they have some nice 3rd and 4th line guys in the system. I particularly like Joakim Anderson, who looks like he will be a really good 3rd or 4th line center. Holland and Nill restocked the roster with some defensive talent, and this is where we need to focus for the next couple of drafts (young, puck movers are important).

The beauty of the Red Wings development system is that these guys can grow at their own pace, and when they do get called up, they can be ready to roll. We will bring in a top-6 forward at the deadline, and I like the competition on the back end. Erickson, Commodore, Kindl and Smith should have to fight for playing time, and it will help us down the road. Personally, I hope that Smith and Kindl emerge, because Erickson just hasn't lived up to his billing.

turtleboy

November 7th, 2011 at 6:59 PM ^

They're leading, or near the top of the NHL in shots per game, they just  haven't had good finishes to find the back of the net. Splitting up Z and Datsyuk like they did will probably help get Franzen and Cleary going, though. TBO even though them being an "old" team raised eyebrows about their chances I think we ablsolutely should have gone after Jagr.

soupsnake

November 7th, 2011 at 7:10 PM ^

Bertuzzi and Hudler are both out for the next game while Brunnstrom and Eaves are in. I think the extra boost of energy will really help the Wings out.

We're getting plenty of shots on net, just need to get some puck luck.

blue95

November 7th, 2011 at 7:16 PM ^

To put it very precisely and simply:

Lots of low % shots = few goals.

If you want to do the proper analysis, which I've thought of but don't know if the data is there and don't really have the free time, plot out shot location per game for the last 3-4 years.

Just watching the games I can see we are getting all our shots from the boards, from the point and from at or behind the goal line.  Consistently, game in and out.  Those shots don't score.  End of story.

If you don't take shots from inside the dots and take the puck to the net, you don't score.  Simple.

teldar

November 7th, 2011 at 7:19 PM ^

From what I saw they didn't do it. No pressure on the goalie. All the shots were from 90 feet out with nobody in front of the net.
Also, neutral zone play was terribly disjointed with 1 - 2 playersr bringing to puck up the ice then taking shots just across the line.

bluewings

November 7th, 2011 at 8:16 PM ^

Agree with lots of what is said.  I feel like we have been playing well all season, the six losses came hard but we still looked likea good team.  We had quite a bit more opportunities to score against the Flames then they did on us.  A quick turnover in our zone and they capatalized on it.  We need to keep shooting and not let our gaurd down for a quick score in our zone.  I also think Zetty and Datsyuk are not the young guys they once were but still in prime age/ability to win and hope we win a Cup soon.  Ill be at the game tomorrow.  Go Wings!

the_dude

November 7th, 2011 at 11:16 PM ^

Good points, the losses were pretty much 1 goal losses with the exception of Calgary and maybe one other game where the opponent scored an empty-netter. The Wings were competitive, they just were snakebitten.

stillMichigan

November 7th, 2011 at 9:15 PM ^

I'm actually happy that goals against are down this year. Sure, we have looked flat at times during the winless sreak, but we have also gotten so many bad breaks that tend to even out over the season.  Defense has been stable which is huge and also necessary if we plan on more that just a Division title.

I'm also encouraged that the last streaks of this magnitude (which obviously is over) happened in '02 and '08 and they were longer and we raised the Cup both years. There is no way I doubt my Wings.

RONick

November 7th, 2011 at 10:20 PM ^

Lots of good points already spelled out, so I will spare my analysis.  Main theme though = low sample size.  The Wings are still a very good team and will be in it until the end.  Babcock is a great coach and will have these guys rolling into the playoffs.

the_dude

November 7th, 2011 at 11:08 PM ^

Wow, that's a lot of data there. Thanks for taking the time to put it together. Mike Babcock is a guy who has very particular expectations and tells it like it is without much coachspeak. What he said prior to the win on Saturday was that the Wings are doing everything they need in order to be successful. They did start the year 5-0. He said they should keep doing what they've been doing - ie, grossly outshoot the opponent and put shots on net from areas where you're more likely to score (inside the circles). 

So he seemed to think they just were not getting the bounces and he told the team not to panic and to keep doing what they've been doing. They did dominate the Ducks but Anaheim is a on a brutal road trip right now and they're not the imposing team they were back when they had Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer.

The biggest improvement by far has been their team defense, they are amongst the league leaders in fewest shots on goal allowed and Jimmy Howard has gotten off to a fine start. Ty Conklin had a terrible outing against the Caps and it remains to be seen if he'll be any better than he was in St. Louis.

Detroit does need another top 6 forward and they have a decent amount of cap space. So there's a chance they make a big trade along the lines of acquiring Chris Chelios way back when or Brendan Shanahan. More recent low-key trades have involved Brad Stuart and Todd Bertuzzi. If Detroit can get one really solid top 6 guy they will be in very good shape IMO.