I doubt putting Don Kelly in front of Miggy in the order would really help Don Kelly get on-base more. Maybe a tiiiiiny bit, but the difference is negligable.
OT: AL MVP Race - Cabrera/Trout
Are you sure it's negligible? Do they keep track of a guy's batting average in different positions in the lineup?
but there's little to be learned by it considering the sample size issues involved.
Well, thank god we can actually watch the games and not just rely on statistics.
(Coming from a math guy)
stats like wOBA, wRC+, OBP (unless you're batting in front of the pitcher), WAR etc. are virtually entirely team independent.
Also, there's no evidence that lineup protection exists, so the guy batting in front of Cabrerea won't get better pitches.
Studies have shown that who bats in front of/behind somebody, doesn't really have much of an impact, the difference, if any, is negligible, other than in extreme cases.
Just like wins for a pitcher, too dependent upon the other players on the team. If no one gets on base before you, you can't have more RBI than you have HRs.
This I can agree with, now if they made an award for the most consistent hitter in the past 3 years then I would bet Miguel would be a shoe-in for the award. He's had a great stretch to only be outdone by a different player every year, while consistently putting up MVP numbers during that time. I just hope some snarky writers don't look at Cabrera when deciding HOF voting and see that he doesn't have an MVP to go with his numbers.
Cabrera is heating up right now and all the national media is picking up on it and starting to give him his due. I've got a feeling he gets it, not only for the amazing season he is having, but also for being so consistently awesome for so long without getting an MVP. My gut says he finishes first in HR and RBI's and closes the gap on batting average.
He wins, no question. Some of the counting stats may start to get closer, as by the end of the year the percentage of games Cabrera has played compared to Trout will shrink (except for RBI's, and that is easily and justifiably explained away by saying Trout is a lead-off hitter.) Ad to it the defense, which you simply can't compare, and the story, and it should be a runaway vote. Trout's having an all-time great season.
Yeah, I'm with the general consensus here: I'm a big Cabrera homer, but I think Trout has been the better all-around player this year. If you only only look at offensive production, I think there's a better argument there for Cabrera, but MVP shouldn't just be about offensive production. It should be about the player's contributions as a whole. Due to that, Trout has the edge, assuming he maintains his numbers the rest of the way.
While it smarts a little to say that, I'd still much rather see Cabrera holding a World Series trophy than an MVP trophy, and he probably has a better shot at that than Trout. So at least he has that going for him.
One other thing working against Cabrera is the league leading number of double plays he's hit into. Cabrera is probably the most feared/respected hitter in baseball right now, but Trout is having a fantastic all around year.
Still time for MIggy to make up some ground, or for Trout to fall off though. Would love to see Cabrera win it.
Eh, that's more a testament to his lack of speed than anything else. Why would that hurt him for MVP consideration?
And I see what you're saying about Cabrera needing to make up ground, but really, there's nothing more he can do. He's having an insane year, Trout has just been more insaner in almost every way. (Yes, I know I just said more insaner.)
it also limits the amount of times you can go from 1st to 3rd on a base hit, ect.
Trout now, but I predict Cabby wins it...why?
1. Trout needs to keep these stats up for the rest of the year. That will be difficult since he is a rookie. I have never heard of a rookie with no rookie year slump. BUT, he is different. Cabrera has a more established history of getting better as the season plays on and is consistent.
2. It is impressive to think that Cabrera put up those stats without an offense in Detroit for 1/3 of this season. Now that they are hitting, I expect him to be a stat machine.
3. Finally, speed and defense (two things that make Trout stand out, aren't weighed heavily during the MVP voting. HR, RBIs, and BA are the holy trinity. THat and some bball writers will not vote for a rookie for MVP.
It won't be difficult because he's a rookie.
It will be difficult because he's in the midst of a historic season, a Willie Mays at his best type of season.
It's difficult for any player to put up that type of season, whether they are a rookie or a HOFer in his prime.
And any writer who doesn't vote for Trout solely because he's a rookie, or even lets that factor into his decision, should immediately lose his right to vote.
Well yeah, but being a rookie makes it harder still, since he hasn't been through the 162-game grind before.
If the Angels struggle and don't make the playoffs then don't expect Trout to win it over Miggy. This is part of the reason Kemp didn't win it last year and why Miguel didn't win it back in 2010. There is over a month and a half of games left so still plenty of time left to pad the stats.
bothered by the idea that a team has to make the playoffs for a player to win the MVP. If you have created the most value in your league, you're the MVP. Making the playoffs is a team deal. If Miguel Cabrera had the same season he's having now but on the Astros, he wouldn't magically be less valuable.
It's troubling but it's happened consistently over the years. Baseball writers of America are truly ridiculous people, just look at Gold Glove winners last year, what a freaking joke.
The writers don't vote for the GG.
But yes, the BBWAA is largely a joke.
They should just reward the most valuable player in each league. That or rename the award to MVPOAPT.
actually still pay attention to RBI's? What a useless stat. Anyways, I'm a huge Cabrera guy, but this race isn't even close. It's Trout in a landslide right now. Trout has a higher wOBA (advanced version of OPS that more properly weights the events of each plate appearance), gains a little advantage on the bases, plays much better defense at a more premium position, and as a result, has a higher WAR by a pretty large margin. Keep in mind, WAR is a counting stat, meaning games played can affect it. Despite starting out in AAA, Trout is still way ahead of everyone.
I would even argue that Robinson Cano is just as much in any A.L MVP race as Miguel is. Heck, I'd argue the Tigers have another position player just as valuable to the team as Miggy.
I'd say Jackson is right up there with Cabrera for team MVP.
If not for his DL stint, I'd say he'd clearly be the team MVP.
This season, Trout has gotten on base more, hit for both power and average at a better rate than Cabrera, stolen 36 bases through early August, and played great defense at a difficult position. Trout is clearly more deserving and I say this as a Tigers fan.
Trout is probably going to get MVP and the only knock I can have against him is he will play around 20 less games than Cabby. Trout is this year's MVP but Miguel Cabrera is the best player in baseball. If that makes sense.
Miggy is lucky Trout didn't play those extra games or he'd be even further ahead. And yes, your last statement does make sense. However, even that might be debatable considering Trout was the #1 prospect in the game. It's doubtful that his season is a fluke.
I agree and in the end, it probably won't be a huge deal. 20 Games is not all that much for a hitter. However, I do think it might come into play for the Cy Young Award as Jered Weaver and Chris Sale will probably end up pitching between 30-40 less innings than Verlander, Felix and David Price - which is a big deal IMO
the amount of useage you get out of a player is definately a huge part of value. There are other pitchers who pitch just as well as Verlander, but he pitches so much more than them that it makes him so much more valueable than them.
Other than his .400 BABIP, none of Trouts numbers are unsustainable.
His LD% is high right now, but a LD% around 25% is sustainable, though Trout will need to do it a few more season before you can expect him to continue at that rate.
His IFH% is also high, but again, can reasonably be sustained.
Same goes for his HR/RB%, around 20% is very possible to sustain.
I don't see him being a 185 wRC+ guy going forward, but he very well could be a consistent 170 range wRC+ guy with great baserunning and fielding at a premium position.
Barring injury, he'll be a top 5 talent for a long time.
Any time I see chatter comparing Trout to Ty Cobb, or anyone in their first couple seasons to any legend, I remember Mark Pryor.
Mark Pryor was the, "can't-miss HOF'er" who had various nagging injuries and breakdowns to not last long in the show in the grand scheme of things.
Trout has great potential and may well deserve MVP this year. All the same I will wait before assuming anything about the heights of his career.
Anyone think that because Verlander won the MVP last year, it may hurt Cabrera's chances? I don't think any voters would use that as their sole reason, but if they are torn, they may think "o, well they have the reining MVP on their team, Trout is probably more important to the Angels."
uses that as a voting criteria, I'd want to see them have their right to vote for the award taken away.
Also, any voters that might swing to Trout will likely feel the same about Pujols.
I say this as a lifelong Tigers fan, if I were able to vote for the MVP right now, I would have to go with Mike Trout, and the reason, in a nutshell, is that Trout seem like the next five tool player to me. For example, whereas a fair number of offensive stats which are in the neighborhood of each other (but not all - see the OP's post, of course), the stolen bases sometimes get overlooked as a statistic in overall run production by an individual, I think. Trout outmatches Cabrera by a slight margin here (to date, of course), I think. Defensively, Trout has a better fielding percentage than Cabrera by about .2, and even though they play different positions, Trout seems more consistent to me.
Of course, there is a sizeable chunk of the season yet to play. I would certainly love to see Cabrera get be the AL MVP in the end, of course.
and it's not close.
Trout: .346/.409/.601 (1.010 OPS), .442 wOBA, 36 steals in 39 attempts, 195 wRC+, 7.8 UZR (defense, at a very important defensive position), 6.9 Wins Above Replacement.
Cabrera: .326/.386/.586 (972 OPS), .410 wOBA, 160 wRC+, -5.0 UZR (at a less important position), 4.8 Wins Above Replacement.
The only thing Cabrera leads in is HR, but his slugging is lower.
RBI is a meaningless stat, and the fact that he has fewer strikeouts and more walks hasn't translated into a higher OBP He has more total bases and doubles, in part, because he's played 20 more games. But WAR is a counting stat and says Trout has been worth more than 2 wins more than Cabrera, even counting the reduced playing time.
as far as walks go, Trout is at 9.1 percent of PA's this year to Miggy's 8.9 percent. On the flip side, Cabera strikes out significantly less.
The voters also love cumulative stats, which was a big reason why Morneau won the award in 2006. Looking at advanced metrics, it's clearly Trout, but voters don't, so Cabrera's still very much in it, although Trout still has a slight advantage due to his SB number and position.
WAR is a couting stat, meaning it takes into account games played already. Not sure where that 7.1 WAR over a full season came from, as Trout is on pace to shatter it.
Not that WAR is the end-all, but its likely not going to be that close.
If Trout keeps up his pace, he will win because he is more "valuable" than Cabrera. However, I think his numbers will drop as teams go into overdrive for playoff contention. If you ask me, I would bet on one of the greatest hitters of this generation sustaining his numbers over a rookie.
Conclusion: If Trout can keep going strong, he wins. Realistically, Cabrera wins.
Trout is a completely sick, unbelievable mix of speed and power. I get that he can get on base and steal bases. Lots of guys can do that. But guys with most of the numbers he has don't hit that many home runs. Cabrera is insanely good and has been crazy productive during this stretch, but Trout seems like he's once-in-a-lifetime. He's Ty Cobb good.
Barring a collapse by Trout, he's gonna win this in a landslide. Too good of a story for him not to win.
Anyone have any idea why Cabby's walks have been so far down this year? 108 last year, only 48 this year. He is going to be down considerably.
There's still about 50 games to go, so he can close the gap on that a little bit. But I think the main reason is that he now has Prince Fielder batting behind to protect him.
Because this one guy who is huge named Prince Fielder is behind him.
The guys in PTI were talking about this yesterday. Tony said that voters could think about giving Trout the Rookie of the Year and giving Miguel the MVP. Any thoughts about that?
Since Trout is guaranteed ROTY, this entire conversation is about that exact scenario.