OT: AL MVP Race - Cabrera/Trout

Cabrera is heating up right now and all the national media is picking up on it and starting to give him his due.  I've got a feeling he gets it, not only for the amazing season he is having, but also for being so consistently awesome for so long without getting an MVP.  My gut says he finishes first in HR and RBI's and closes the gap on batting average.

He wins, no question.  Some of the counting stats may start to get closer, as by the end of the year the percentage of games Cabrera has played compared to Trout will shrink (except for RBI's, and that is easily and justifiably explained away by saying Trout is a lead-off hitter.)  Ad to it the defense, which you simply can't compare, and the story, and it should be a runaway vote.  Trout's having an all-time great season.

If you weighted RBIs / HRs / Rs / AVG / SBs the same and those were the only categories you used - Trout (15.6 rating - 1st overall) would come out significantly ahead of Cabrera (12.3 rating - 4th overall).  And that is for the ENTIRE season, not an average.  

So clearly the answer is Trout.  If you want to think about it some more, just look at the OPS stuff.  I am sure if given 18 more games, Trout could make up the "gaps" that exist between his stats and Miggy's.  

Yeah, I'm with the general consensus here: I'm a big Cabrera homer, but I think Trout has been the better all-around player this year. If you only only look at offensive production, I think there's a better argument there for Cabrera, but MVP shouldn't just be about offensive production. It should be about the player's contributions as a whole. Due to that, Trout has the edge, assuming he maintains his numbers the rest of the way.

While it smarts a little to say that, I'd still much rather see Cabrera holding a World Series trophy than an MVP trophy, and he probably has a better shot at that than Trout. So at least he has that going for him.

One other thing working against Cabrera is the league leading number of double plays he's hit into.  Cabrera is probably the most feared/respected hitter in baseball right now, but Trout is having a fantastic all around year.

Still time for MIggy to make up some ground, or for Trout to fall off though.  Would love to see Cabrera win it.

Trout now, but I predict Cabby wins it...why?

1. Trout needs to keep these stats up for the rest of the year. That will be difficult since he is a rookie. I have never heard of a rookie with no rookie year slump. BUT, he is different. Cabrera has a more established history of getting better as the season plays on and is consistent.

2. It is impressive to think that Cabrera put up those stats without an offense in Detroit for 1/3 of this season. Now that they are hitting, I expect him to be a stat machine. 

3. Finally, speed and defense (two things that make Trout stand out, aren't weighed heavily during the MVP voting. HR, RBIs, and BA are the holy trinity. THat and some bball writers will not vote for a rookie for MVP.

If the Angels struggle and don't make the playoffs then don't expect Trout to win it over Miggy. This is part of the reason Kemp didn't win it last year and why Miguel didn't win it back in 2010. There is over a month and a half of games left so still plenty of time left to pad the stats.

actually still pay attention to RBI's? What a useless stat. Anyways, I'm a huge Cabrera guy, but this race isn't even close. It's Trout in a landslide right now. Trout has a higher wOBA (advanced version of OPS that more properly weights the events of each plate appearance), gains a little advantage on the bases, plays much better defense at a more premium position, and as a result, has a higher WAR by a pretty large margin. Keep in mind, WAR is a counting stat, meaning games played can affect it. Despite starting out in AAA, Trout is still way ahead of everyone.

I would even argue that Robinson Cano is just as much in any A.L MVP race as Miguel is. Heck, I'd argue the Tigers have another position player just as valuable to the team as Miggy.

This season, Trout has gotten on base more, hit for both power and average at a better rate than Cabrera, stolen 36 bases through early August, and played great defense at a difficult position. Trout is clearly more deserving and I say this as a Tigers fan.

Trout is probably going to get MVP and the only knock I can have against him is he will play around 20 less games than Cabby. Trout is this year's MVP but Miguel Cabrera is the best player in baseball. If that makes sense.

Anyone think that because Verlander won the MVP last year, it may hurt Cabrera's chances? I don't think any voters would use that as their sole reason, but if they are torn, they may think "o, well they have the reining MVP on their team, Trout is probably more important to the Angels."

I say  this as a lifelong Tigers fan, if I were able to vote for the MVP right now, I would have to go with Mike Trout, and the reason, in a nutshell,  is that Trout seem like the next five tool player to me. For example, whereas a fair number of offensive stats which are in the neighborhood of each other (but not all - see the OP's post, of course), the stolen bases sometimes get overlooked as a statistic in overall run production by an individual, I think. Trout outmatches Cabrera by a slight margin here (to date, of course), I think. Defensively, Trout has a better fielding percentage than Cabrera by about .2, and even though they play different positions, Trout seems more consistent to me.

Of course, there is a sizeable chunk of the season yet to play. I would certainly love to see Cabrera get be the AL MVP in the end, of  course. 

and it's not close.

Trout: .346/.409/.601 (1.010 OPS), .442 wOBA, 36 steals in 39 attempts, 195 wRC+, 7.8 UZR (defense, at a very important defensive position), 6.9 Wins Above Replacement.

Cabrera: .326/.386/.586 (972 OPS), .410 wOBA, 160 wRC+, -5.0 UZR (at a less important position), 4.8 Wins Above Replacement.

The only thing Cabrera leads in is HR, but his slugging is lower.  

The voters also love cumulative stats, which was a big reason why Morneau won the award in 2006. Looking at advanced metrics, it's clearly Trout, but voters don't, so Cabrera's still very much in it, although Trout still has a slight advantage due to his SB number and position.

Trout's having a better season in rate stats/ per game, but the Angels have played as many games as the Tigers (techinically one more at the moment) and Miguel has been there for everyone of them.  Trout has not.  He missed 23 Angel games so far.

The WAR gap is 2.1 wins over a full season (7.1 vs 4.9), but Cabrera has played in 22 more games.  The WAR stat says Cabrera only added 1 extra win to the tiger total in that span, but that takes a significant slice off the WAR gap...and that's if you're going to be slavishly devoted to that one stat (any reasonable Tiger fan knows that if they played Inge or Kelly in those early season games the Tigers would have lost several more games.)

Given that the defensive WAR is not a very reliable number (nor are any other defensive stats), I'd put more focus on the offensive WAR, where the gap is much smaller - 1.3.  Now you see that the 22 games difference makes the applied WAR value very negligible.

We're talking about a statistical measure of 1 win over the course of a full season?  A measure that any reasonable person agrees has pretty significant flaws??  I think in that situation there's a good chance that you start looking at non-statistical considerations (like the fact that Cabrera changed positions for Fielder and hits at the heart of the order, like the fact that Dirks and Jackson have benefited from hitting above him, and the universal respect for his offensive ability.)

I think Cabrera's going to win it and I don't think I'm being a homer in saying that it's fair if he does.