this may be of some local interest
OT: $1 billion offered for a perfect March Madness bracket
I'm offering a billion to anyone who can successfully hit the Mega Millions and be struck by lightning at the same time. The door prize will be your own spot in an Alanis Morrisette song.
You oughta know!
My prediction is that someone wins.
"Bergen estimated in 2012 that someone who knows college basketball, that is, someone who understands that 1-seed teams never lose to 16-seed teams, for example, has about a 1-in-128-billion shot at picking all of the games correctly."
I think they'll be all right.
Bookofodds has it significantly lower than that - I believe somewhere in the range of 1 in 40 billion for an educated entrant. Sure, it's a longshot, but I have a feeling someone will do it.
EDIT: Entries will be limited to one per household. Nevermind.
How are they going to check that there is only one entry from each household?
They won't. But if you win they'll investigate. And if you submitted more than 1, they'll probably only honor the first one.
I would honor none of them
Scientists estimate that approximately 20 billion humans have been born in the entire history of the species, which means the odds of collecting on this is one in twice the number of people who have ever existed.
I'm comfortable saying that nobody collects on this....ever.
It's brilliant. They buy insurance anyway for these types of schemes.
Wonder what the actuaries think?
I don't even know why they bother with the insurance--if I'm the quicken CEO, I think I'm okay with taking my chances that if someone picks the perfect bracket, the company goes under. There's a greater chance the company headquarters are struck by a meteor.
Quicken is a tens of billion dollar company. They won't go bankrupt on a billion dollar payout. Hit their bottom line, yes, but not bankrupt. The massive amount of business being driven to them will pay for this in the long term, so there's no risk to them.
Oh, and I hate Dan GIlbert and his thug army of lawyers. That's all.
The payment options are $25 million per year for 40 years or one lump sum of $500 million. That means they can surely afford those hits.
I dont see why an insurer would take on this obligation. There's no way it can diversify against the potential loss. Im not an insurance guy though.
it into the tournament? I mean that drives fan interest all seaason long, bracketology and daily Kenppom ratings, and all of that, you could use that information, but you'd still have to get all the selections right. You cutoff the entries before the final selection weekend. You have to get all the conference tourney results correct and the at large choices.
The tournament teams are selected by a committee though, which opens the real possibility of bribery, collusion, intimidation, and other such activities.
Unlike the games, which are played, coached by, and officiated by robots.
You're correct. There is no difference at all between the selection process and outcome of the actual games played.
So, for the sake of argument, let's just take 9 quintillion and then assume that I start filling out brackets at 4 PM EDT today and do not cease until an hour before the tip of the first play-in game. That only means I have to fill out 1.9011 trillion or so individual brackets per second between now and then. Best start making copies of bracket sheets.
In all seriousness though, it would be awesome to win this thing as it is so improbable.
Part of me thinks about the sheer number of participants in yearly brackets and realizes that these games have outcomes that are not coin flips, and that many people play multiple brackets. So eventually... but no. It'll never happen.
I actually know who will win each game. I went to the future and came back with the winners of all the games. The only thing is I'm not a resident of the US, so I can't play. But if someone wants to split it 50-50 with me I will divulge my findings. Any takers?
Too bad that will literally never happen.
I wonder if they'll award $650 million for only getting it 65% correct, because that's how I usually do.
Wow, says they're paying out $100,000 to each of the top 20 places. I wonder how much Quicken is thinking they'll make off this marketing when they don't mind giving away $2M.
EDIT: Seems that $100,000 must be used towards financing a house, makes sense now.
Impossible or improbable?
most certainly has NOT happened in the past 10 years or 1000 years.
If there's that much money being generated by men's college basketball then even I have to start thinking players deserve a slice of the pie.
It costs small fraction of $1 billion to insure such an unlikely event like this. I am guessing this is costing Quicken mid six figures.
If it comes to be that someone is 62 of 62 heading into the final game -- or 60 of 60 going into F4 weekend -- then Quicken probably negotiates a settlement. Like guarantee the guy $250M instead of taking a flier on the $1B. Most of us would take that deal. So its not only the impossible odds of someone going perfect -- its also got to be aomeone so stupid they will let it all ride.
be the insurer negotiating the settlement not Quicken.
Or you hedge your bet and make more gaurenteed money than they probably would want to settle for.
Watch this be the year we get a 16-over-1 upset and everyone loses the first day.
of the players on that team might be sitting pretty, though.
We'll be having a little* tailgate party if I get the billion, by the way.
*Relative to a guaranteed $25m salary, that is.
I'd take the lumpsum $500m and walk.
I am going to be rich!
are all playing for second place.
one-in-50 billion-odds is...there is that one.
and i'm feelin' purrrty lucky.
after we win. But, then, The Knowledge already knew that.
We need to just find a way to enter a bracket for every single possible outcome. Get the MgoBoard bots on this now.
My idea so obviously I get 50%. Everyone else can split the remainder evenly.
Obviously MI wins it all. So that cuts down some on the number of possible combinations.
Battle of the Bots - UNLEASH!!
What happens when there are 9 billion unique entries?
there has to be a limit to the number of unique entires. Hell, *I* could write a code that runs thru that algorithm
1 per household. They will only check if you win.
If I win, I'm giving it all to this blog, but only if I get mod powers.
but I'll walk away from modding and give you my password for only 1/10th of the prize.
It's one entry per household. There goes the whole bot idea. Not unless anyone here knows how I can hijack a few trillion IP addresses to submit a bracket.
but it will cost you.
Rules say they are only accepting 10,000,000 entries.
This is genius. It even made the national news broadcasts. You promise a billion dollars for something that will never happen and you get free blanket-coverage publicity nationwide.
So I, M-Dog of MGoBlog, will pledge a trillion dollars to whomever picks a perfect NCAA bracket and a perfect NIT bracket.
Alert the media.
I accept. If I do win, you just screwed yourself over for the rest of your life!
I accept as well. I will give you my completed brackets no less than one day after the NCAA title game.
Glad he's gone !!
... has Michigan State losing to Weber State in the first round. Just sayin'. You might want to keep that in mind.
and a time machine when you need one. Damn.
Like the lotto, this sort of proposition doesn't pay off at the actual odds.
Consider - a tourney of two teams takes 1 game to decide the champion. 4 teams, takes 3 games (two semis and one final). Extending that reasoning, a 8 teams tourney takes 7 games. A 64 team field will take 63 games. If one were just to pick the winner at random (that is giving each team equal chance to win each game regardless of opponent, location, round) that means there is 1 in 2 raised to the power equal to the number of games. So the odds in the two team tourney is 1 in 2, in a 4 team tourney, 1 in 8 (2 to the 3rd power), and in the 64 game tourney, 1 in 2 to the 63rd power or a 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,780,000.
The odds go down to 1 something X 10^13 if you start taking into account that no 16 team has lost to a 1 team and the 2 team wins 95% of the time, etc. The only real 50/50 shot is the 8-9 games. But when I calculated that, I assumed 50/50 in the rest of the tournament and I know that's not right, so it's probably somewhere in the order of 10^12 or so. That's still a longshot though.
Now parlay that...
is if they subtracted like $50 million from the $1 billion for every loss. Best bracket wins. So you could still end up with like $600 million with eight losses. Now THAT would be something to talk about.
They should force Bill Gates to become your slave if you also get all of the scores right.