LordGrantham

August 31st, 2014 at 3:24 PM ^

I wouldn't touch that MSU line with a ten foot pole, but if I had to, I would go Oregon -11.   MSU will finally play an offense that can punish them for playing every guy within 5 yards of the LOS.

Joined: 01/01/2014

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1464

August 31st, 2014 at 5:47 PM ^

You, intrepid message board poster, should probably learn how Vegas sets it's lines before you get snarky with other people.  I'd hate for you to look foolish while chastizing other people.

Joined: 06/21/2010

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stephenrjking

August 31st, 2014 at 3:49 PM ^

Not sure about this. If the Kelly-Helfrich era Ducks have a weakness, it is that their offense can struggle when they face a team that brutalizes the point of attack. Physical defensive fronts can overwhelm the nimble guys on Oregon's OL, and that grinds the train to a halt. See, for example, the BCS Championship against Nick Fairley, and LSU's hatchet job on their running game the next season. Marriotta is a better passer than Darron Thomas was, but MSU is exactly the kind of defense that Oregon struggles against. It will be an interesting matchup.

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I Like Burgers

August 31st, 2014 at 4:28 PM ^

Yeah Stanford is the go to example here.  Two years in a row they've upset Oregon playing the same kind of physical grind it out style State uses.  It'll be an interesting game to see if State still has it defensively, or if Oregon has finally found a way to adapt to that kind of physical defense.

All that said, I'd stay far away from an 11 point line.  Feels like it'll be like a 4pt difference or 3 TD difference kind of game.  If Oregon cracks the defensively code, State won't be able to stop them or keep up with them.

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I Like Burgers

August 31st, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^

This is the one that no one is really talking about.  Given Wisconsin's choke job against LSU, this game is pretty much the Big Ten's one and only shot at the playoff.  If State wins, the Big Ten is in great shape to grab a slot.  If they lose, its more likely than not that they will be the power five conference left out of the playoffs.

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M-Dog

August 31st, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^

Yes, it's a classic "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you" case.

At least one Power 5 champion is going to be left out.   It won't be the SEC.  Because ESPN.  It won't be FSU if they win the ACC because of last year.  

There is a three-way fight between the B1G, Pac12, and Big12 to not be the one left out when the music stops.  We are already behind the 8 ball with the Wiscy choke.  Especially because they did it in such "Big Ten" fashion - one-dimensional running game, not enough athletes at WR and CB to keep up.

The Sparty game is the B1G's last great hope to make a statement . . . that if you are leaving a conference out, go look elsewhere.

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

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LordGrantham

August 31st, 2014 at 4:54 PM ^

Yeah it's a definite possibility, which is why I would never bet on this game.  

That said, I think the media narrative that Oregon struggles with "physical" defenses is way overblown. LSU had 4 NFL players on their D line that year. Nobody ran against them.  In the NGC, Auburn got torched through the air after selling out to stop the run and gave up 450 yards of offense. Oregon is also 2-2 in their last 4 against Stanford.  Even against OSU in 2009 they managed 5.4 YPC.  Playing a defensive front less talented than all of these teams, The Ducks should be able to put up points, especially against an MSU team that doesn't have the OL to play ball control.

 

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Bigku22

August 31st, 2014 at 3:19 PM ^

I will probably tease the lines up to +12 and +17.5. Oregon notoriously struggles with physical defenses (Stanford) and I think Sparty can score of their D. UM I like to win outright but I under no circumstances see us losing by 2 touchdowns.

Joined: 05/23/2013

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Nick

August 31st, 2014 at 4:51 PM ^

Unless, youre teasing across both 3 and 7, its usually not worth it.   

Teaser sides have to each hit about 72% or more to be profitable.  .72 X .72 = .5184, which should be around break even point if standard vig.

If you think plus 11 is a good bet, take that. But moving from 11 to 17 or 17.5 doesnt shift your probability of winning that leg of the bet by enough to be worth it.

In general, I would only tease in lower scoring games with spreads in single digits.

just my opinion, though. Have fun betting a safe amount.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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Bigku22

August 31st, 2014 at 5:25 PM ^

Teasers for me are usually based on how appropriately I feel the line is placed. In this case I believe UM and MSU are getting 1-3 more points than what the matchup suggest. Teasing the lines then puts me 7-10 points more than the matchup suggest, which allows room for more random variance in the game (for example turnover margin) I tend to place larger wagers on safer bet teasers, while looking for money line values for lower wagers. Just my personal strategy.

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Perkis-Size Me

August 31st, 2014 at 3:24 PM ^

MSU +11? Yeesh I don't know about that. A lot of people are putting stock in how similar Stanford and MSU are, which may be true, but I just don't think that MSU will win that comfortably, even if they do win. Mariota will really test MSU's secondary, which will undoubtedly take a step back after last year.

For ND, I'll take Michigan, but the under. Has this series done anything lately to prove that one team is going to win comfortably over the other? No. Expect chaos, mayhem, and utter insanity for this last one, like always.

Joined: 11/30/2011

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Engin77

August 31st, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^

have not been kind to the favorites in the UM - ND series, if memory serves.

No big deal to be an underdog in South Bend.

That noise canyon in Eugene is a different story. 

Joined: 07/02/2008

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LSAClassOf2000

August 31st, 2014 at 3:30 PM ^

Team Rankings' model is a bit more aggressive when it comes to the point differential as they give Michigan a 23.6% win probability (based on 2013 statistics, mind you) and a likely score based on simulations of 30-20.

The link to the comparative stats that they use, also 2013 stats, is here - LINK. 
 

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UMxWolverines

August 31st, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^

I would like MSU much more if they were playing at home, but Eugene is a different story. That being said, I would not be surprised if they won. Their defense will be able to stop Oregon like physical defense always do. Just matter of how much. 

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