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http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/2/?s=3468
I always take great interest in watching the evolution of lines over the course of a week. Looks like this one has started out pretty high. Michigan -10.5 and -11.5 from the only two data points at 6ish on Sunday night.
Anyone who has been watching closely has seen this team get better on D since q 3 of the Bama game. MSU will not put up points on us. Our offense will also not fall for the ol' okey doke 3 years in a row. And last but not least we are at home.
this team is hungry. 28-10 Michigan.
You're too modest. 35-9
You're too conventional. Michigan 36 State 8.
Gimme the points. I believe it'll be a close game.
I disagree. I want a beat down of such epic proportiona that will shut up the state fans for at least next 365 days. But that's just me. They've had their fun with us the last four years, I want my turn.
Basically equal to the sagarin PREDICTOR ranking difference between Michigan and MSU.
Have the line listed at -11.5.
Michigan covered the last two weeks by an average of 26 points. I'd be cool with that again.
To God's ear. It's probably blasphemous to pray for such an outcome, but after enduring the last four years of Sparty trash talk, it might be worth the risk.
I would love seeing Michigan win by 37.5. Freaky shit right there.
...it doesn't exist. Their D is still good, but NOT as dominant as last year (maybe b/c their offense can't put drives together).
Jake Ryan LIVES in the MSU backfield. Denard gets his 100+ rushing which has been elusive aganst MSU so far. M fans will see a LOT of Mr. Rawls.
UM easily, 27 - 13.
You mean he's not real?
I mean, of course he's real.
Well, we thought their OL was horrible last year too, then we wound up not getting to Cousins much.
I was going to ask my Sparty daughter to make a bet before last year's game, but decided not to because I still had questions about Michigan. This year, I'm not going to even broach the subject because she's probably too smart to take the bet, or if she does accept it, I'd feel guilty for taking advantage of her. I expect us to win by at least 12 points.
I'll make the bet with her then, have no problem taking advantage of her :)
Sorry, I just couldn't resist lol
She's 12 man. The bet was to help with dishes.
Ugh... Now my reply goes from being just tasteless to creepy.
I apologize, had I known ahead of time.. I never would have made the comment. :(
You need to put on your thinking cap dude. His name ends with MSUDad. Theoretically that means his daughter went to MSU or is going there. Makes it a little less messed up, but still we rightfully frown on those kinds of comments here
She's an adult--already graduated from MSU and quite capable of defending herself, so given that I led with a perfect setup line, I don't consider it a big deal. A bit tasteless, yes; creepy, no. This is one of the things I like about this blog, though. A tasteless remark gets negged, people chatise the poster, and everyone moves on. Thank you for the apology, but in this case not really necessary.
Thank you for being the guy who doesn't take a stupid message board comment too seriously.
Naturally...you live in Columbus
This is probably the creepiest thing I have ever read on MGoBlog.
Good lord the people on this board can be Puritans.
I observed that a comment about gladly taking advantage of another poster's daughter was creepy. I don't want to pile on sice the two people in question sorted it out, but I don't think that observation is too far off, especially considering that's all I said. Nobody (me included) said anything bad needed to happen to the guy who posted it or even said it shouldn't have been posted.
What the fuck is wrong with you?
Daughter is probably still like 83
I am still nervous about this game. I will say that I think Cousins and some of the other seniors helped them overcome mediocre play calling last season. MSU doesn't seem to have anyone leading the team this year. We will see how good the D really is this week.
Their O is shaky.
Our O > their O.
Our D is probably = their D.
We're at home.
Sparty goin' down.
The Michigan state defense is overrated, yes they're dirty, which makes them look good but they are horrid when you compare them to any actual defense.
The D is good, but they're going to become average once Gholston and Dennard leave after this year.
False. No one is saying MSU's defense is why they're struggling. It's a very solid unit. However, from everything I've read since yesterday, the general consensus among the media is that we easily have the best defense in the B1G (whether that really means anything on a national level is a whole nother story).
State won't score a touchdown. I'll wager that with anyone.
I'll take that bet
I don't know man, we held Dame to one TD in South Bend. And their offense is MUCH better than MSU. Bell might break a big one, but I think that's the only way, unless we go complete derp and never guard Burbridge, and never get to Maxwell.
I want to believe we'll shut them down but I also thought we'd perform better each of the last 4 times out. I'll believe that we hold them without a TD when the clock says 0:00
that we won't be playing in a trash tornado.
Seems like a few of you guys r a bit over confident...Kinda reminds me of the ND week where everyone was talking about how Denard would put up super numbers and we would win..... I'm hoping for a win this week but I'm a lil nervous about the game...
Put some pants on nancy
C'mon now, Damefan, it's time to give up the charade.
Yeah, who does this guy think he is?
That has been a negative for UM. How will he perform versus the same defense this time? The ND game does not give me much confidence.
I think UM can contain Bell, but in rivalry games you never know. UM has to come to play.
It isn't the same defense as last year or the year before. Their D is good, but nowhere near what it was the last couple years.
I want to take the over on six personal fouls
So far, they have 41 total penalties for 422 yards, so they average about 6 penalties of all types per game for 70 yards or so as it is. Factor in the fact that they are playing us and, yeah, that might be a good bet.
As for the line for the game, now that we best MSU in passing defense, passing efficiency, rushing offense, scoring offense, sacks, tackles for loss and are just below them in total defense, -10.5 as a line sounds pretty realistic, even though another half of me says they try to play the game of their lives and it is close to a touchdown margin. I could see a TD and some change though if they can't improve on the Iowa performance.
I think it will probably be around 17-6, but I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on that. If it drops to around 7 maybe I'd be in.
I think we struggle on offense against an MSU team playing their equivalent of the B1G championship game but we still prevail with strong D and just enough O: 17-6 the good guys.
EDIT: Honestly didn't read the above post prior to my own post.
But their defense playing like the BCC, then we'll shell them for over 30.
What was the line at the start of the season? You'd be sitting pretty with an M(+3) line right about now.
The line in the summer was Michigan -6
38-0. Booking it.
If we come to play, we'll win by two scores or more. And if you don't come to play against a rival that has beaten you four in a row, or you think you can skate through, you don't deserve to win.
This is MSU's whole season right here. UM will win, but it'll be close, count on it.
Mr. "Discipline" will fake a punt, a FG, a heart attack just to beat Michigan. Not saying Hoke wouldnt do that either but MSU will pull out all the stops.
This game will be close. MSU's entire season rides on this game, even if they were undefeated. They will prepare for this game like its their Super Bowl. Michigan will win, but it'll be closer than we'd like it to be.
Still, I'd kill for a 35-7 beatdown, and Little Brother chants to start mid-third quarter.
I am just now recalling what it feels like to have a reliable defense during weeks of rivalry games. It feels good. It feels very good.
Michigan- 27 MSU- 13
take the points in a heartbeat. However, Illinois is dreadfully bad at football, that game meant absolutely nothing and was not a defensive or offensive challenge and perhaps has raised expectations a bit too much.
Throw in a meh Wisconsin dismantling Purdue and its pretty obvious Michigan has not been tested at all in the BIG.
OTOH, I think Michigan is making the same steady progress they made a year ago, if anything they've shown its not easy to move the ball on them when you aren't stacked like Alabama or running an option offense no one else runs. If Michigan runs the ball Saturday they'll in with ease, if its a struggle to run like last year against Staee this will come right down the final 5 or 10 minutes.
I think we sneak this one out. Take the points
but mark my words...Wisconsin is finding their identity and hitting stride. They're better than you think, therefore the Purdue team we stomped on the road wasn't as bad as they seem right now.
Our D is also finding it's stride, and that is why we'll dismantle MSU by two TDs.
Michigan State lost to a way overrated Ohio State team, a bad Iowa squad, and almost lost to Indiana in the last three weeks.
I really don't see us losing to them in the Big House under Hoke.
UM wins 24-6
A lot of MSU fans are saying they will give their backup Connor a chance if Maxwell falters early. I think we'll win no problem, but he's supposed to be pretty mobile. Nothing we couldn't catch, but it will affect their gameplan in ways our practice might not prpare for.
I think we'll win handidly, and beat the spread, but I'm not sure about a blowout. Their D is not bad. Not great, but not bad. The RB's will have to help out a little more than they did vs Ill and Purdue.
yea Cook, the kid MSU players tweeted about that was better than denard? Ya i saw what that scrub could do when they brought him in for a read option and he got smashed for a 4 yard loss..
He looked like henne trying to scramble
State will play cover 0, if Denard hits passes we win if he doesn't we lose same as last year.
My concern is our D line can't get off blocks. You have to get off blocks to keep Bell from getting upfield.
keeps MSU's OL off our LBs, we'll be fine. Don't you read the UFRs? :)
Seriously though, last year we played Sparty in what, Mattison's sixth game at UM? Our D got better and better as the year went on. I still think if we played MSU at year end, we might have won.
This year we had to adjust to some key personnel losses, but finding our way again. Our LB play is way better than it was when we played MSU last year, IMO.
We WILL win this game by ten or more. I'm sticking with 27-13.
Have you seen MSU's O line?
The key to this game is Borges. I don't want to see him go all crazy again and try to do exotic stuff that doesn't work before reverting back to running the ball. If we run from the start and take what the defense gives us we'll have the thing wrapped up in the first half. If not, well, things could get really interesting.
Is that MSU didn't give us the run last year. The Defense destroyed Molk. Denard will have to throw to open the run.
Forget 8 man fronts. Actually, we may not even see a 9 man front. We may face the first ever 11-man front. They are simply not going to give up the run until we complete 3-4 passes in a row. Figures to look a lot like VaTech with press coverage the whole way. Going to be a tough road, hombres.
Key stat for me is pass attempts, under 20 and we win by 20. Over 20 and its a close game. Pretty vague but whatever.
My brother and I are coming to our first Michigan game too see them take down stare and we could not be more excited. What are the hotel choices in Ann Arbor.
Dantonio has had Denard's number for two years running now.
UM: 17 MSU: 6
If we stop him on the early down and force Maxwell to throw and play the screen well, they will be in for a long day. If we don't limit Bell and he breaks any long runs, they will score a TD.
My guess is we play better than last year, but the game will be close. If Denard stays healthy and we control the lines, UM wins 27-13. If we can contain Bell, it could be a long day. I still say we win solidly, but not a total domination. This rivalry is on again so many of the numbers are meaningless.
If our Oline gives Denard room to step into throws and stop the blitzes we winn this game. If he is rushed hard all day, it might be tough. I don't see MSU winning, but it will be a fight because of the hatred.
By several hundred points
I'd settle for 119-0.
"The game was played in two halves of 20 minutes and 18 minutes. Demonstrating the understatement of the "Point-a-Minute" name given to the team, the Wolverines scored 119 points in 38 minutes of play, an average of 3.1 points per minute."
a double digit number in a rivalry game? The people in Vegas are just giving money away, kind of like favoring Purdue over Wisconsin last week.
Five of the last seven games in this series have been decided by 14 points or more.
You can tell how Vegas just gives money away by the fact that all casinos are located in shacks made of recycled sheet metal and driftwood.
I think it could be a higher margin, because of the UM defense and the MSU offense. However, this is a rivalry game and Dantonio is one of the few coaches, that have been able to mostly contain Denard.
Does it really matter what the line is? As long as the correct team comes out on top, who cares?
