That is according to Phil Steele's 2010 preview magazine.
In the last 8 seasons, teams who finished the season with 4 net close wins (UM currently has 4 wins by a TD or less and 0 losses by a TD or less) had a worse record the following season 78% of the time (28 out of 36 teams), 11% finished with the same record (4 of 36) and only 11% (4 of 36) finished with a better record the next season.
Pretty sobering stastic, isn't it?
(Cue the "So you're saying there's a chance ?!?!?" clips)