One Mission Accomplished, One in Progress, and One Halfway there.
Before the season I broke it down into 3 separate four game acts:
Expected wins:
UMass, BG, IU and IU
Expected losses:
Iowa, PSU, UW, OSU
Coin flips:
UConn (W), ND (W), MSU and Purdue.
Our program came into the season with three realistic missions:
1. Play well enough for RR to keep his job so he can continue building his program.
Status: Mission virtually accomplished. Yes, there is a lot of season to go, but the expected number for RR to keep his job by evidencing "improvement" as Brandon put it (even though he didn't specify a wins total) was 6-6 and a bowl birth. UM now only needs 4 wins to accomplish this, and should be eminently achievable with the 4 expected win games and two other coin flips ahead, not to mention the chance to knock off a weaker PSU or surprise Iowa.
2. Stay relatively healthy and continue to gain experience for this incredibly young team.
Status: In progress. So far so good on the health front, and let's hope Gibbons, Cam Gordon and Denard and the rest of our young team continue to grow from their mistakes. Gibbons was, uh, nervous, Cam's angles on those two ND bombs were painful, and Denard made some obvious mistakes as well with his arm. For all the flash and yardage, we still only put up 28 points after winning the turn over battle 3-0... Also, it's painfully obvious our overall defense is not very good. Our lack of pass rush appears an obvious indication G Rob is shedding help up front to protect the secondary. But our young and gritty D has gotten the job done against two formidable foes, and can only continue to get better, especially with the two cupcake games ahead in preparation for Big10 play.
3. Shoot for the stars relative to the last two years and go 8-4 or 9-3.
Status: Half way there. 6-6 is virtually assured by simply beating the four opponents listed above we should easily beat. 7-5 requires simply winning 1 of 6 other games - 4 expected loss games and 2 coin flips (MSU/Purdue). That also seems expected and achievable. Yet after the first two seasons under RR, especially with the losses of Warren and Graham and Woolfolk this year, most conservative UM fans like myself projected 7-5 (as Brian also did), but of course, secretly hoped for the miracle that would be 8-4 or even 9-3 in this, still a rebuilding year.
8-4 will require us to probably run the table on MSU and Purdue. Purdue seems eminently winnable, but MSU is a good team, made better by having a mirthless coach who sacrifices weeks and wins in advance of the UM game to get his team ready for the only game he apparently cares about.
9-3? Run the table on our flips and squeak a win out of either PSU or Iowa. Wisconsin with it's experience and OSU just don't seem achievable this year, but one can only dream...
Amazing start to our season. We've won the first 2 of the 4 most important games. MSU is the next one. GO BLUE!!!
September 12th, 2010 at 10:22 PM ^
2 games hath we played. Halfway to 8? methinks your math is poopy
September 12th, 2010 at 10:34 PM ^
I feel like purdue should be in the expected win category after they got pummled by ND. Also, I think Penn State should be in the coin flip area. They ahve not looked great to date.
September 12th, 2010 at 10:40 PM ^
I said it in July...and August...and today. This team, at freaking minimum, goes 8 and 4. The defense, it is not great but the offense kills people...it will do enough to win eight games and we can recruit some damn strong defensive help.
I have seen Purdue, Sparty and Penn State and they do not scare me. Let's not forget, it's not like Iowa has looked scarily impressive this year either.
Eight and Four or Brian gets my MgoPoints. Raback that.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:18 AM ^
This offense didn't look like it could "kill" anybody but itself. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. As many "experts" have pointed out, the columns and opinions from last year at this same time that declared Michigan Football "back" could simply be dusted off and republished.
We still have to prove ourselves in the B10 season. Let's not forget, too, that this is a very young team, and it will almost certainly drop a game (or two) that should have been a "gimme". I'm not taking anything for granted at this point. Last year taught me that.
September 12th, 2010 at 10:40 PM ^
You think the two games is enough for him to keep his job?
I hope you're right because he has some things in place, but that may be a tad optimistic so early in the season.
Some of those "easy wins" have been difficult games in the past, but time will tell.
September 12th, 2010 at 10:57 PM ^
Let's let go of the pessimism and look at this realistically, which is exactly what the OP did. Illinios, Indiana, BG, and UMass will get run off the field if the same team shows up for those games that did for the previous two, that 6-6 at worst. We'll be atleast two touchdown favorites vs purdue, that's 7-5. That leaves tough games vs MSU, Iowa, and Wisconson all at home; after watching the 3 of them I'm unimpressed and feel like 1 for 3 is highly likely and wouldn't be shocked to take 2/3. This already has us in the 8-9 win range, with a road game against a freshman qb at penn st and The Game. This team can make a serious run at 9-10 wins, i think it may be time to start drinking the kool-aid.
September 12th, 2010 at 10:43 PM ^
One at a time, fellas. One game at a time.
September 12th, 2010 at 11:28 PM ^
...some like to count their chickens before they hatch. Nothing is for certain until the game is over and UM has more points than the other team..
September 12th, 2010 at 10:51 PM ^
...came into the season with the following missions:
- Compete for the Big Ten championship.
- Play in one of the Big Ten's January bowl games.
- Get better every week.
End of list.
If I were AD I would make my evaluation on RR using the following:
- Coach gets five years unless the wheels come completely off.
- Is the team getting better each year?
- Does the team improve over the course of the season?
- Does the team not get rattled on the road?
- How does the team do against the Big Ten?
- Is the team's record at home stellar?
So far:
- Coach is getting five years.
- Yes
- No
- No, though signs are starting to point to yes after the ND win
- Very poorly
- No
Of course, Coach Rod still has 10 or 11 games and two more seasons to spruce up the portfolio.
September 12th, 2010 at 10:58 PM ^
On the idea that the concerns on the team (special teams, defense, options besides Denard) will only get better as the season goes on. That theory didn't work out too well last year.
One game at a time.
September 12th, 2010 at 11:04 PM ^
That doesn't seem like a very relaxing proposition.
September 12th, 2010 at 11:17 PM ^
there weakest point on offense should be the passing game with freshman QB, our run defense should hold its own against their run game, and our offense should score on all defenses (OSU defense looked pretty stout against Miami). That is the only game I consider a loss. Everything else with Denard healthy is winnable/coing flip IMO
September 12th, 2010 at 11:45 PM ^
I've got a lot of friends from Badger Nation and they are about ready to concede right now.
Unfortunately we still have to play that game, but there's a chance we might just win the damn thing.
September 12th, 2010 at 11:52 PM ^
...us much? Jeez.
September 13th, 2010 at 12:24 AM ^
I know we're all quick to want to forecast how many wins we may end up with, but I'm just happy to take it a week at a time knowing that I've got a good feeling about our team coming out on the field next Saturday...
The way I look at it is that we've got 2 more games in the non conference season and then it's time for us to win the games that really matter, in the Big 10
That being said, we've got a guy who has the ability to keep us competitive and relevant in every game we play this year, so I think we will be much more prepared for the conference season this year than last
September 13th, 2010 at 12:31 AM ^
I agree with the one game at a time sentiment. As somebody mentioned in another thread UMass isn't Baby Seal U. But if we're doing predictions...
UMass-W
Bowling Green-W
Indiana-W
Michigan State-W
Iowa-L
Penn State-L
Illinois-W
Purdue-W
Wisconsin-L
Ohio State-L
Anything better than that is a fantastic, fantastic year. Anything worse than 6-6 is a catastrophe on par with 3-9 in 2008.
This team is good.
EDIT: Yes, I managed to contradict myself twice in the same post. How? Magic.
September 13th, 2010 at 12:50 AM ^
But I am leaning toward PSU being a win because they won't be able to exploit Michigan's secondary with their own rather mediocre QB rotation.
Basically, though, this team can beat anyone on its schedule. That isn't to say that they will beat everyone, but they are capable of beating anyone if they play their best game. I refuse to compare this year to last year for reasons that I have already mentioned in other posts, so I am not expecting the collapse that so many think is still possible.
I think this is the year of the true "Rodruguez leap."
September 13th, 2010 at 12:54 AM ^
NOOOOOOOOOOO
September 13th, 2010 at 5:25 AM ^
OK, I know UM beat them in 2008, but Wisconsin comes out EVERY freaking year looking like this against the early season crap they play.
They then proceed to go 9-3 and win a bowl game. It might be time to acknowledge Wisconsin as a team that can NOT ever be counted as a WIN until the game is over.
Couple of points: Notre Dame will probably not win more than 5 games this year. Crist looks a bit fragile, and if teams can somehow find a way to cover the lumbering Rudolph and prevent him from being open all day and scoring 95 yard td's, ND is in trouble.
Michigan had a great game and won, but it was tougher than it should have been, and GOURD FORBID UM should ever need a field goal to win a close game this season. We were shut out (for severel reasons, I know, and of course the refs were out to get us) for most of the second half--is that not at least a bit concerning?
Denard: Ok. Heisman awarded. One hundred BILLION yards of total offense. HOWEVA--when we run into a team that stops him--and we will--who will take up the slack? I know we're all "Pat White!" and shit, but Pat White had Steve Slaton.
In light of all the above, I'd have to agree this team should go 8-4 this season. But I think we can see that, as happened on Saturday, the defense WILL have to come up big for sometimes long stretches during games. Let's not forget that.
September 13th, 2010 at 6:12 AM ^
I cannot figure out why people continue counting some of these games as gimme wins. Nothing is guaranteed, or even written in pencil. All it's gonna take is a bad injury to a key player (DRob, Martin, Mouton, Molk) and we're gonna be f*#(@d. Stop calling teams like BG and Illinois and Indiana as "wins." As we see more and more every year, good teams occasionally lose to bad ones, and I know this is really just speculation, but to overlook these teams is PRECISELY what they want us to do. They know, on paper, there is a very small chance they can win, but their odds increase dramatically if the other team overlooks them.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:37 AM ^
UM needs to work out the Defensive kinks in the next two weeks. Hopefully UM can have it in hand by the second half and they can put some young guys on O and figure out a nice balance on D so they can rush more than three guys on passing downs. I know this is a Derp post but here's were UM can get some good development going if they can take care of business.