Ohio State by the Numbers
Penn State did a very good job of being almost exactly what we thought they were by the numbers outlined last week. MSU, Indiana, Maryland, rutgers very much fell in line as well - the two exceptions this Big 10 season were Northwestern which underachieved defensively and Minnesota which overachieved on offense vs what the numbers would tell us.
Let's hope OSU underachieves on both sides of the ball after we take a 10 pt lead early and all those NFL prospects worry about keeping their health for the draft.
Let's see what OSU is good at (top 30ish nationally) and not so good (80th or worse) using NCAA stats.
By the way FEI advanced stats show UM and OSU offensive and defensive units as almost completely identical.
Things OSU is Good At
Natl rank | Value | ||
Offense | |||
Completion % | 30 | 63.1% | |
Rushing Offense | 14 | 230.4 | |
Sacks allowed / game | 33 | 1.45 | |
Defense | |||
3rd down conversion % | 25 | 33.1% | |
Defensive TDs | 4 | 4 | |
Passing yds Allowed | 5 | 164.3 | |
Red zone Defense | 23 | 76.0% | |
Rushing Defense | 30 | 133.7 | |
Scoring Defense | 2 | 14.1 | |
Sacks / game | 14 | 2.9 | |
Total Defense | 8 | 298 | |
Misc / Special Teams | |||
Blocked kicks | 15 | 3 | |
Kickoff return defense | 5 | 16.2 | |
Kickoffs returns | 32 | 23.4 | |
Net punting | 9 | 40.8 | |
Punt return defense | 18 | 3.5 | |
Punt returns | 26 | 12.3 |
Remember that high flying offense that was young and peaking in late 2014 and could only get better in 2015 with almost everyone returning and was going to rip thru college football and set records with a bevy of NFL players?
Not so much.
If you had given me this list of strengths on (virtual) paper and asked me to discuss the 2015 OSU team I would reply "a typical Tressel team - great on special teams and defense, and will run it down your throat all day." Uhhh....
OSU's offense is among national leaders in a whopping 3 things. This despite playing a bevy of nondescript defenses. Based on OSU's SOS their NCAA stats on offense should be thru the roof while their advanced stats suffer a bit as they are adjusted for quality of competition... but nope. Even in the more forgiving NCAA stats the only place we find them is completion %, rushing offense, and sacks allowed. (Editor's note - if you only watched last week's game, yes OSU does throw the ball more than 6x a game so that completion % is not based on only 42 throws all year as you'd surmise). UM happens to be good at rush defense - it would be better with a Glasgow (sigh) [hello Mone?] but theoretically OSU's strength is UM's strength. Stalemate we hope.
Meanwhile OSU's D is pretty good - scoring D and total D is among the nation's best. That said, they they have faced a bevy of nondescript offenses. MSU and Indiana's were the only 2 legit offenses outside of maybe Western (?) they played this year. And they faced both with injured QBs!! (Sudfeld went out late, and Cook never played). Hmmm
What was shocking about that game last week was Sparty's OL dominating the LOS vs OSU DL. Coming into the year MSU was supposed to have a very good OL but injuries had surpressed that - they were finally healthy and it showed. But still one did not expect "that" - OSU's DL looked hapless for long stretches. Unfortunately UM's OL is not of that pedigree so we will have our normal issues running on OSU - expect Peppers, end arounds and the same short passes t the flat we used on PSU as substitutes for runs. OSU also appears to have a very good pass D ... and they pressure the passer. Granted Nassib was out the whole game and Jake did get hit hard a few times but coaches seemed to find ways to offset pressure vs PSU, and our OL while poor in run blocking usually does a solid job in pass protect. So maybe not such a huge advantage for OSU there. But hey lets stop with the false starts ok UM OL?
After weeks of looking at awful opponent special teams I was a bit taken aback when perusing OSU's. Finally a Big 10 team that actually has some damn good units. UM has not faced an equal in this department almost the entire year. UM has used short fields to score many many TDs this year, so that might not be the advantage we are used to this week. And our recently suspect coverage teams need to be at top alert.
Things OSU is Not so Good At
Natl rank | Value | ||
Offense | |||
3rd down conversion % | 82 | 37.6% | |
Passing Offense | 100 | 193.7 | |
Red zone Offense | 95 | 79.5% | |
Fumbles lost | 81 | 9 | |
Defense | |||
Misc / Special Teams | |||
TOP | 83 | 28:52 |
OSU's passing offense is suspect. That should have been apparent last week when OSU's coaches didn't trust it. A survey of 11Warrios the past few days shows OSU struggling very much with the things Jake struggled with the first 60% of the season - the downfield pass. OSU also stinks in the red zone which is in direct contrast to UM. So hopefully we hold them to FGs down there. This has become a tired bit but like PSU, OSU fumbles the ball quite a bit - but UM's D does not like creating fumbles. We are dead last in the nation at 1 fumble recovered. And have been stuck there for months.
OSU's D does not suck at anything.
The one way this version of OSU varies from Tresselball is TOP. An advantage UM might be able to exploit.... if it can get any damn running game going.
============
Overall maybe none of this matters on Saturday ...."throw out all the numbers!" ...but if it does matter there are definitely areas to exploit and UM's D might have a way more favorable matchup than many assume - if we can stop Elliott from becoming Jordan Howard.
November 25th, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^
and win The Game. Fail to protect Jake Rudock and it will be a long day. Our defense should be able to hold them to FG's and our offense has the skill (Butt, Darboh, Chesson, Peppers) to move the ball and execute better in the red zone than OSU.
November 25th, 2015 at 3:23 PM ^
if our gameplan is once more, "Play to the Opponents Defensive Stregths"
UGH.
November 25th, 2015 at 3:19 PM ^
Like 2013, I hope we surprise them on offense. With peppers, we can run almost a completely different looking offense and get them reeling early. Then hold tight on D late.
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November 25th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
Absolutely. I am confident Harbaugh has kept plenty under his sleeve to break tendencies. We've been diverse this year and OSU has to be worried about the possibility of mysterious use of peppers.
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November 25th, 2015 at 3:21 PM ^
24-14 UM
November 25th, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^
Here's the TeamRankings comparison for the discussion:
Offense | Ohio St. | Michigan |
Yards/Play | 6.2 | 5.5 |
Points/Play | 0.502 | 0.458 |
Rush Play % | 61.09% | 54.33% |
Pass Play % | 38.91% | 45.67% |
Completion % | 62.95% | 63.20% |
3D Conv % | 37.59% | 43.59% |
RZ Scoring % | 79.55% | 93.48% |
Defense | Ohio St. | Michigan |
Opp Yards/Play | 4.2 | 4 |
Opp Points/Play | 0.196 | 0.226 |
Opp Completion % | 49.08% | 47.51% |
Opp 3D Conv % | 33.15% | 23.23% |
Opp RZ Scoring % | 76.00% | 84.00% |
November 25th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^
They're GREAT at completion percentage. Just ask MSU. When Ohio State runs the ball on 85 consecutive plays, then attempt one single forward pass per game, they complete that one pass roughly 63% of the time! Lol
November 25th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^
Thanks Alum! I really appreciate your contribution to this site! Contain Elliot and we will win unless some crazy statistical breaking things occur.
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November 25th, 2015 at 6:47 PM ^
The outlier here is special teams for me. We have played with a short field on many occassions this year. Including our game against MSU. In addition, we have given up some pretty big plays the last few games on special teams. 1. We really need to shore up giving up the big play on special teams. 2. Stop Elliott as mentioned. 3. Protect Rudock and I think we get the W.
November 26th, 2015 at 4:31 AM ^
Great Post! I've been waiting for some brutally honest predictions. I've been biting my nails all week trying to breakdown this matchup, and looking at these numbers helps to give clarity...
1.OSU defense is pretty good, but they struggle in pass coverage from what I've seen (Bubridge WR) just like we did, but Jordan Lewis played a hell of alot better than OSU's secondary as a whole.
2. After watching the MSU game last week, and hearing the Elliot interview. He was right they were gashing MSU early in the run game, but went away to give Barrett touches. For some reason I feel Meyer will feed Elliot ALL game. We gotta stop them early and often. Our Secondary all around is better than OSU's in terms of playing physical from what I've seen this season. We gotta force them to throw the ball more.
3. We have more weapons on the ground and through the air also. Rudock has improved his skills over the last couple of weeks, and if our OL keeps him protected long enough he can make the passes necessary to put points on the board. Our RBs need to wake up also, Smith, Johnson, and Green are due for big game. Hit em right in the mouth, and there is no better place to do so than at home.
As I stated before, I may be the only nervous fan on this board right now. Oh well, let's give them hell come Saturday..
GO BLUE!!!