Ohio newspaper says 18% chance Michigan beats Ohio
"Chances to beat Ohio State: 18 percent. When we originally planned this schedule breakdown out, we gave the Wolverines the best chance of beating Ohio State. You know now it's been flipped. Michigan State was 20 percent, the Wolverines are just behind at 18."
Source: Cleveland.com 8/6/2015
http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/2015/08/can_michigan_beat_ohio_state_1.html
Is it billboard material when the odds come from a Cleveland-based publication? Also, and without trying to cast too dark a shadow over the fast approaching football season, does anyone think those odds aren't fair? I mean, Go Blue and all that, we didn't just roll over for the OSU game the last few years, but 18-20% odds seems pretty legit to this M fan.
The odds seem pretty fair to this fan as well. I was sort of surprised that this site would even entertain the notion that their guys could lose...they are major boosters of that program.
Billboard material? No but helps fill the REALLY SLOW TIME in August.
Camp hasn't started. We haven't seen anyone play yet. Though I would likely give you better odds. For all of Hoke's faults he did get his guys ready for The Game and they put everything out there for it. I don't expect less from Harbaugh. And I've felt Urban has called those games a bit tighter, but that may be me.
August 6th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^
I would share that sentiment if it weren't for the fact that Brady Hoke went 11-2 with RR's far inferior talent to what Harbaugh has left from Brady's amaizing recruiting. I don't know why people are so cautious to optimism with our current staff and situation. Stanford had much less in the talent pool and that was before turning them from a bottom feeder into a national powerhouse. That was also before Jim had any experience in the NFL. Sorry, I might sound like a homer, but I tend to believe we have a MUCH better chance at beating OSU than most. Even Hoke played them close and now we have them at home.
August 6th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
Because regardless of overall talent and the massive upgrade to the coaching staff Michigan still has a few glaring question marks going into the season. It's not at all homersim to have optimism. However, it is also very fair to only give M an 18% chance to beat an OSU team that just won the national title and has an embarassment of riches at nearly every position on the field.
I would also lend to my posit that UM's learning curve is far less curvaceous from Hoke to Harbaugh than from RR to Hoke. And yet he still won 11. 18 percent is ridiculous in my book. Sorry, no disrespect meant but there are way more variables to be optimistic about that not. One of those that fall into the "not" catagory is the "glaring" QB conundrum being that Harbaugh is a QB guy. Morris and/or Rudock are better than we're giving them credit for. So is/will be, the O-line. Bank it.
Hoke's 11 win season (as described on the front page by Brian) was about as lucky as they get and he caught the worst OSU team in about a half a century. If Michigan wins 11 under Harbaugh this year it will probably be a whole lot more earned than was Hoke's.
I do hope you're right though, but I think most are tempering their expectations.
Cleveland can't or won't support an NHL team therefore anything they say means nothing.
HaZAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!! They know about this...
Seems reasonable. If it weren't a rivalry game, I'd place the odds even lower.
I'd say that 18% is a little high.
For a a 16 point underdog
source: http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2015/6/26/8853237/2015-ohio-state-betting-lines-virginia-tech-michigan-state
the site below says the win likelihood should be 15%
source:http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/29/1003957/chance-of-a-football-team-winning
The Golden Nugget lines include:
• Ohio State (-16) at Virginia Tech
• Penn State at Ohio State (-19)
• Michigan State at Ohio State (-14)
• Ohio State (-16) at Michigan
The Win Likelihood Versus Point-Spread Function:
Chance to Win Spread 100 41 95 21.5 90 16.5 85 16 80 14 75 13 70 6.5 65 5.5 60 5 55 2
Of course, I don't believe that point spread will be anywhere near realized with Harbaugh!. The spread was 17 in 1969. I predict 24-12 Michigan.
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I think he was just asking 'what overused Dumb and Dumber thing?'
August 6th, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^
Insider joke . . . from yesterday.
But the OP had it right -- "cue" is correct in this context:
Que Cue the "day after" mocking of my faux pas yesterday.
18% of the time, we win all the time.
I didn't know Cleveland.com hired Nate Silver.
So this percentage is just arbitrarily assigned?
73.6% of all statistics are made up. Trust me, I'm a random guy on the internet.
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HAHA, nice.
Oh...ESPN, you silly folks you.
August 6th, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^
August 6th, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^
We learn this trick early on in financial analysis. If you take a wild-ass guess and assign it a probability like High / Medium / Low, nobody will believe you.
But if you run it through a spreadsheet algorithm and assign it a probability % with a couple of decimal places . . . it's science.
"Our ROI cutoff is 9.5%. Your analysis says that the return will be 9.5321%, so it's definitely a Go. JP, authorize $10 million for Project Wild-Ass-Guess."
August 6th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
Ah yes, please see my tag line for my opinion of statistics.
I don't know man, I'd put it at 50%. We either win or lose. Not like we're going to play this specific game 100 times to see how often we win.