Offseason Speculation: What is Gardner's Ceiling?

All Big-10 qb that is in the heisman talks but still outside the top 10 in the heisman race at the end.

RGIII and Colin K made Devin a lot of money this past year. He fits the mold of the evolving QB in the Nfl. Good for him.

If you look at what Michigan QBs have done in recent years during their junior seasons (I am looking at DG as a junior, I realize he might not be), there is good reason for optimism:

Elvis Grbac (1991): 165/254 (65.0%) 2,085 yds 25 TD 6 INT 161.7 Eff

Todd Collins (1993): 189/296 (63.9%) 2,509 yds 17 TD 7 INT 149.3 Eff

Tom Brady (1998): 214/350 (61.1%) 2,636 yds 15 TD 12 INT 131.7 Eff

Drew Henson (2000): 131/217 (60.4%) 1,852 yds 16 TD 4 INT 152.7 Eff

John Navarre (2002): 248/448 (55.4%) 2,905 yds 21 TD 7 INT 122.2 Eff

Chad Henne (2006) 203/328 (61.9%) 2,508 yds 22 TD 8 INT 143.4 Eff

Denard Robinson (2011) 142/258 (55%) 2,173 yds 20 TD 15 INT 139.7 Eff, 1,173 rushing yds, 16 rushing TD

Extrapolate his 5 games to a full season and you get 30 TDs, 13 INT, 4000 yds, and 19 rush TDs. Probably safe to assume the Rush TDs cut to half. INTs should drop a bit. Yardage as well. Pass TDs seem reasonable given how he lit up weak competition.

I would say 32 TDs, 9 INTs, 3500 yds, and 11 Rush TDs. Also, 1 TD reception from Shane Morris on a trick play against OSU.

Yeah he looked pretty good at qb last year. Hopefully he improves this year and gets the redshirt and starts again next year.

But I think he also looked pretty damn good at wr last year too. If he had a decent passing qb throwing to him (I love Denard and all but we know he wasn't the greatest passer) I think he could've been our top guy. Pretty good size speed strength and agility.

A team could take him as a qb but use him as a wr (safety net) if it doesn't work out.

I think Gardner has a ceiling of being a 1st round pick and Heisman winner. For this season, I think All-BIG QB is more realistic.

I don't think half the people commenting in this thread know the meaning of the word "ceiling."

And with that he can pass Braxton Miller for 1st team all B1G. Anything beyond that for this season is gravy.

I want to say top 15 draft pick, but I have been burned by expecting big improvement from the last few Michigan QB's.

I love Denard but even as a senior he was still making a lot of the errors he made two years before that like not throwing the ball away, or not taking off when he should, and showed little improvement in accuracy.

Forcier didn't learn to let some plays die and throw the ball away either. Sometimes you got amazing plays and a lot of other times needless interceptions. Did not go away the next year when he was a backup.

Chad Henne I thought would be one of the greatest college QBs of all time based on his freshman year along with the expected incremental improvement he would make in the next 3 years and while he was great we never saw as much improvement as might be expected.

Hard as it is, I'm trying to keep expectations very low in my mind and expect that he will be exactly the same player we last saw on the field in the bowl game. Makes it more exciting when I'm wrong (hopes).

2nd team all big 10 is the most realistic. Braxton Miller will be the pre-season Big 10 player of the year. The ability to stay healthy will be part of it as well.

The upside of most young quarterbacks that were highly recruited to good teams is winning the heisman and national championship game. There isn't a lot of information content in that statement though, so I think discussing median expectations is more interesting. For Gardner I think this is all B1G either 1st or 2nd team

The ceiling is extremely high.  He has the size, the arm and is an amazing athlete.  That is a really good starting point for a QB.  He has one year as a starter and a full off season to get ready.  There is no reason to believe he couldn't be a very high draft pick some day going strictly on tangibles.  That being said, playing QB and being a combine warrior are two different things.  I'm hoping he gets 2 more years because I think we are going to rip people up next year and the year after.  I think we may need a little help at WR but the O-line recruiting is getting me really excited for Michigan football.

His ceiling is incredibly high, certainly first round draft choice. Heisman is a lot about luck or having a good sob story for the press. Ceiling is also not the same as what we might expect.

I expect really good things, and great things depend on making a few relatively minor improvements as well as decisions outside of his control. Some of his passes last year were a little late, not being a QB coach, i assume that he's still thinking rather than knowing and acting instinctually.

If Michigan can establish a running game and at least one of the receivers steps up, then Devin will likely be making a lot of national media sit up and take notice. I don't have a lot of worries about what Borges wants to do. Looking at what Hoke/Borges did at SDSU suggests that with my above caveats, we're likely to see a prolific and exciting offense. Devin looks like he can run a passing game, including the vertical stretching Borges likes. Devin can both keep a play alive and burn a defense with his legs (and he showed the decision making chops last year to checkdown to his legs or throw it away when necessary). If the coaches feel that Bellomy can be the 2nd string guy, then i think we're also likely to see a little bit of QB designed runs for Devin. Not like Robinson QB running, but using them to keep the defense honest.

Get that redshirt, letting the rest of the team develop around him, and, yes, we might be talking Heisman finalist and very high NFL pick.

You forgot All SEC after All American

Although after his NFL career, he'll be able to afford something like

Granted, it was only four games, so this is not a huge sample, but an average game for Devin Gardner consisted of 14 completions in 23 attempts, 2 passing TDs, one interception and 251 yards per game. Further, we should factor in an average of 9 rushing attempts which, although for very few yards (19), result in at least 1 rushing TD per game from Devin as well.

If he can continue to develop at QB and if he could continue a similar pace at least for much of the season, he would certainly be in the Heisman discussion, although I would be less certain about him necessarily winning it with such numbers (he probably would need to repeat the 314 passing yards of the Iowa game a few times, I would think). This would definitely improve with the continued evolution of the running game and some solid receiving yards being amassed. The ceiling definitely puts him in this territory, I would say. I could see All Big Ten and a decent draft position with a good 2013 campaign definitely though.

sh*t. Just a lot of very canny split-second thinking in evidence there. I was sad at the way things ended for Denard, but Nebraska had its silver lining. 

I would settle for a solid QB who leads the team to ten regular season victories this year, and beats what is going to once again be the "unstoppable juggernaut" when they come to the Big House in November.

Anything else is a bonus.

I think he'll be much improved this year simply from an improved WR corps. He's already got great chemistry with Gallon and Dileo, and I think one of Darboh/Chesson/freshman will give him a nice third option that helps keep the defense playing honest on the others (and possibly open up better matchups for Funchess).

In my mind, the play of the WR corps will be his make-or-break, and I think it'll fall on the "make" side of that.

The Ceiling? Vince Young (the college not the NFL version).

Devin and will be right up there with the best in the B1G next year. 

Some people are making realistic predictions, some people are actually talking about a true ceiling.

As a realistic prediction, I think Devin is second team All-B1G behind Miller.  Taylor Martinez is his only competition, and I believe DG is the better player, and will prove that will a full off-season.  Also, I think Michigan will have a better record, and that will dampen the Martinez hype.

But a ceiling?  Well, he has the talent to be a Heisman winner, so I guess have to call that his ceiling.  I don't believe that will happen, but that's what the word means.  And since I NEVER say anything without evidence...

• DG's 2012 passer rating was 161.66.  That would have made him the 8th highest QB in the NCAA, and is behind only six teams: 'Bama, Georgia, SJSU, Clemson, and WVU...and ahead of Baylor and Oregon, and far ahead of Johnny Manziel's 155.32.
• His 2.2 passing TDs per game extrapolates to 28.6 for the season.  That would have made him #19 in passing TDs in 2012.
• His Yards/Att was 9.7 (!!!) which would have made him #2, behind only Aaron Murray.
• He would have thrown for 3,169.4 yards (extrapolation), making him #29 in the country
• 18.2 rushing TDs would have made him #5 on that list for QBs

He accomplished all that without practicing at QB in the off-season, without a full playback, in an offense that had been designed around a running QB, with an awful interior O-line and almost no threat of a running game.  And he did in five games that featured teams ranked 23, 29, 33, 34, and 75 (Iowa-DERP!) in opposing passer rating--not the pushovers some people suggest.

So it's clear he has the talent to be a Heisman contender--especially in 2014--but my prediction for 2013 is second team All-B1G, and I believe he will be drafted in the 2nd round.

Who knows. Throw a dart at your list. My prediction is he will be 2nd team all Big Ten. His Heisman chances would be helped if one of the young receivers steps up. As mentioned above, his yards per attempt is fantastic and most experts will tell you that's an important indicator of a good qb.

What is his ceiling? Probably drywall. possibly in an off-white (?).

Now there is a big difference between ceiling (potential) and predictions, before people start getting all crazy.

Ceiling - I think he has the physical tools and the ability to be a top 15 pick, all-B1G, all-american. He is 6'4'' 210lbs, with an NFL arm. He is a long strider who can will be able to outrun most defenders. His accuracy is off at times, but overall I think he has good accuracy. He has the ability to throw on the run, and has great pocket presence. Not to Denard bash, but those are all things that he couldnt do. His decison making is progressing, he sometimes forces throws, but overall is good enough for the college level. I think the progression of his descion making is what will determine his draft status. He reminds me of Vince Young, lets hope he can copy his college succuss, but translate to the NFL alot better.

Prediction - I think he will continue where he left off last season. He will keep putting up good stats and winning games. If he stays healthy, there isnt a game next year were not capable of winning. I would be dissapointed if we were worse than 10-2. He will improve, but I dont predict him to hit his cieling. I think if he didnt improve, he was good enough to be a 3rd-4th round pick. But by the time he enters the draft I expect him to have improved enough to be a 1st-2nd round pick.

Seriously

About a week ago when I was drunk at 2 in the morning I bet $2.50 on Gardner for the Heisman at 40/1.  So that is now my expectation.  Anything less is unacceptable. 

Part of Gardner's ceiling is dependent on how well the weapons around him play.

Henne, Navarre, Henson, and Brady all had NFL-caliber recievers to throw to. Walker, Terrell, Edwards, Breaston, Manningham, Arrington, Avant, etc.

I know Gallon plays bigger than he is but you have to have guys who can stretch the field on a consistent basis. Michigan needs some of its younger players to fill those shoes so Gallon doesn't have to be the vertical guy while Dileo is the underneath guy.

On the bright side, the other thing that the beforementioned QB's had was a beast of a RB to work the playaction pass like Thomas, Perry, Hart, etc. I think Michigan has a guy in Green and also in Smith who can fill that role.

I believe that Gardner has the ability to be an All-American. But the realist in me believes that he'll top out at All-Big 10.

Probably some sort of tiled drop ceiling.

Ceiling implies the highest I see possible, so I would say Heisman winner is a very remote possibilty.  If I am interpretaing ceiling as more along the lines of, "reasonable but optimistic" I would say All-American MAYBE heisman finalist.  With that said I think he has an All-BIG season this year.