what are your conclusions here? Or you just felt like posting some stats?
Offense Efficiency Analysis: UM vs MSU
You can't count missed field goals as that schews the numbers in our favor.
I'm confused by the FG misses inclusion. Does "scoring" mean something different in Sweden?
sorry, I corrected it
Good deal. And good stats.
"scoring" totally means something different in sweden. if you know what i mean...*wink* *wink*
seriously though it means pretty much the same thing only without the sexual context.
...is pretty clear. Our offense is better than their offense. We score more touchdowns. We are not good at kicking field goals, but we are lucky, because Denard Robinson devours third down yardage like fat kids in red-white checked overalls eat burgers. That is to say...he eats third down yardage ferociously and he cannot be stopped.
god it's gonna be close isn't it
I contend that we want to encourage an up tempo game. We want to have as many possessions as possible during this game. We are averaging 12.4 drives per game at a 46% TD clip. That comes to 5 - 6 TDs. Lets say 38-40 points.
MSU averages 12.2 drives per game and converts only slightly higher than a third (34.4%). That would only be 3 TDs or only 21 points. Toss in 2-3 FG and they wind up with 27-30 points
That would make the final score 38-27 range upto a 40-30 the good guys.
Ultimately I feel this game will be decided by turnover margin. Hold onto the ball and reduce Sparty's number of possessions = win for us.
Well the old football theory is that the more time the physical teams is wearing down on you, the more succesful they become, in theory raising their scoring percentage. If we can give the defense a rest I'm all for it, because we don't have the depth to be rotating players.
MSU averages 12.2 drives per game and converts only slightly higher than a third (34.4%).
Against FBS opponents, MSU has had 49 drives (12.25 drives per game, as you say) but has scored on 22, a 44.9% success rate, averaging 2.65 PPD. Or are you counting touchdowns only?
At 12.2 possessions/game, that does only add up to 32.33 points, so Michigan would still win, 38-32.
....this game (like all of our games) will be about giving our offense as many opportunities to score as possible..............if we come out ahead on turnovers for the day, we probably win.
But your analysis leaves out an important consideration: relative defensive strength.
I am sceptical that Michigan's and MSU's defenses could be considered equivalent, so that the difference would come down only to offensive ability.
Michigan: 31.7% opponent success rate, 2.0 PPD
MSU: 24.2% opponent success rate, 1.5 PPD