Odds of starting in secondary
I am quite satisfied with how the recruiting class turned out, especially with how it addressed the depth and talent issues in the secondary. At a minimum we will see one new starter in the secondary next season and we will probably see 2-3. (Woolfolk is a lock. Kovacs, Williams, and Floyd all could start or could be on the bench.)
So now we have a slew of players who could make their first start in one of the secondary positions. What do people think the odds are for each of these guys to be the first person to make their first start?
I probably should have someone like jamiemac do this since they are far more qualified, but I'll give it a shot:
-- Turner = 3/2
-- Christian = 3/1
-- Dorsey = 3/1
-- Emilien = 6/1
-- Avery = 8/1
-- Robinson = 10/1
-- Johnson = 30/1
-- Talbott = 50/1
-- Vinopal = 100/1
My gut feeling is that Woolfolk is the starting SS. I think Vlad, Kovacs, and Williams will start out on equal footing for the starting FS spot with Johnson and Robinson getting a look as the season goes on. At corner I think it will be an open competition between Turner, Christian, Avery, Talbott, Dorsey, and Floyd with the best two getting the start. (my money on Turner and Floyd for game #1)
Wow.....they may be young, but isn't it nice to actually talk about a two-deep in the secondary? Hell, this is a three-deep!
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:13 PM ^
Richrod said they will start Dorsey at corner, with him playing safety later in his career. I'd say Woolfolk at FS with a Christian/Dorsey rotation across from Turner sounds pretty good. Thoughts?
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:26 PM ^
A little nit-picky, but Woolfolk will play SS. I think the FS will be Vlad, MW, MRob or Kovacs, in that order. Throw Carvin in there too. The FS is a lot easier position to play as a freshman than the SS in our defense, and Mike Williams and Kovacs didn't look too bad last year in run support, it was the deep safety that usually got burned.
I agree with you that Turner gets one corner and Christian and Dorsey fight it out for the other one, but I don't think it will be a rotation. One guy will win the job and get the bulk of the PT.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:06 AM ^
I was just about to say Magnus is going to get on him/her for FS comment but you beat him to it.
The thought of Magnus getting pissed trying to explain to the community the difference between the FS and SS always makes me laugh.
February 4th, 2010 at 9:40 AM ^
When RR said that they'll "start" Dorsey at corner, he just meant that that's the position he will play first, instead of safety. It doesn't mean that he'll actually be a starter. There's a chance that he could start, but from what I've heard, he's a little raw. Especially b/c of the fact that he played safety in high school. Keep in mind that the secondary consists of the hardest positions to play in football. I can pretty much all but guarantee you that Floyd will start at corner opposite of Turner. He has a start or two under his belt and a lot of actual playing time. That is FAR, FAR, FAR more valuable than just raw athletic talent when it comes to playing in the secondary. And Turner himself has at least had a year in the system to learn it and work on his fundamentals. Dorsey and Christian both will get their chance to start this year, but it's not going to happen immediately. If either does, in fact, start, it will be much later on in the year. Don't you worry though. If you're itching to see our new recruits in action, Floyd and Turner can't be on the field ALL the time. Both Christian and Dorsey will see plenty of immediate playing time, b/c there's just no one else. And who knows, any of our other CB recruits could surprise and show more early promise than either Christian or Dorsey. This, of course, is all based on the assumption that Woolfolk stays at safety. If the coaches decide to move him back to corner, all bets are off.
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:20 PM ^
Personally, I'd swap Vlad and Demar, but I've always had a soft spot for the Impaler.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:02 PM ^
I think the FS race is wide-open among Vlad, Williams, and Kovacs, so I'd give Vlad 3/1 odds. I'd also lower Demar's odds of opening the season a the starter to around 4/1 or 5/1. I'm confident that Turner will fill one of the corner spots. IMO, the favorites at the other corner spot are either Floyd, or Woolfolk if he doesn't play SS. I'd put Demar and Cullen in the next group.
February 4th, 2010 at 9:46 AM ^
Vlad is a beast, athletically. Supposedly, he would've been a 5-star if not for his injury his senior year. And even though he didn't get to play his senior year, he remained a very high four star. Vlad was our Dorsey last year. As I mentioned above, the secondary is one of the hardest places to play in football. Freshmen usually don't just come in and start right away. It's very rare. To think that Dorsey will be better than Vlad coming out of the gate is just ludicrous. I suppose there's a chance, but it's exceedingly slim. Vlad is expected to be a mainstay at safety in the future. That Vlad didn't get any real playing time last year at safety is just more of a testament to how hard it is to play in the secondary as a true freshman.
February 4th, 2010 at 11:05 AM ^
I think he was saying switch the odds of Dorsey and Vlad starting, not put Dorsey as the starting FS. The OP gave higher odds of Dorsey starting than Vlad, and I think that is a little suspect. I think this post was saying the odds would be better that Vlad started than that of Dorsey starting. Just my take on it, but that is what I got from his post.
February 4th, 2010 at 11:29 AM ^
I think you're right. I misunderstood. The odds in the OP are definitely off in regards to Dorsey and Vlad.
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:30 PM ^
While the only prediction I'll make about next year is that our secondary will be better (which might not be good, since they pretty bad last year), I can't help but think that we're in for a great future of pass defenses.
We seem to have a great pipeline of corners and safeties. Looking forward to the next few years.
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:34 PM ^
"We seem to have a great pipeline of corners and safeties"
Hallelujah!
February 4th, 2010 at 12:20 AM ^
Not to nitpick, since you are currently on my top ten of coolest people of 2010, for your Dorsey prediction, which by the way, I then used to get into a back-and-forth debate with a Florida State fan, who thought "his source" was correct, but that's nor here nor there...
Anyway, but you did just say...
We seem to have a great pipeline of corners and safeties.
And I understand the pipeline of corners, especially to the NFL, though who are these safeties you speak of? I ask, because that's the one position I have always thought Michigan never recruited well. Even Brian, when asked for a quick YMRMFSPA on Demar Dorsey, he said there hasn't been one, which is a good sign for the future, though a strong indicator that we really haven't had great safety play over the years. I'm just saying...
Thoughts?
February 4th, 2010 at 8:11 AM ^
I believe he meant we are developing a good pipeline of corners and safeties now.
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:53 PM ^
this class is all the competition that these guys will have. There will be a mad scramble for playmakers in the backfield of the defense (and the offense for that matter), and the best will flash in practice. We are bound to find 4-6 guys that can make plays on the ball in the air, and I would like to see our secondary morph into a turnover creating unit. Just being able to stop a team on third and long would go a long way for this defense. Great class, Go BLUE!!!
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:02 PM ^
But I get the impression (albeit from recruiting articles and highlight clips) that Cullen is the most "polished" of our secondary recruits, whereas Dorsey looks more like a guy with a lot of raw talent who will need some time in the system before he is ready to get on the field. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cullen win a starting job as a freshman, maybe even out of fall camp.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:13 PM ^
I think they both end up starting. They are way too talented compare to what we have to work with right now. I think Turner's going to start at a corner spot and Woolfork at a Safety spot. Personally, I think Cullen will find his way on the other side of Turner and Dorsey will find himself at the other safety position. I know Rich said Dorsey was going to start at a corner spot but he will find himself at safety by the end of the year, he's just too talented and we don't have much safety depth. The season probably won't start this way but I think this is how it will end, with these four starting.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:23 PM ^
I hate to be the guy but it's Woolfolk.
February 4th, 2010 at 1:20 AM ^
when the game is on Big Ten Network.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:18 PM ^
Dorsey will probably only see special teams and mop up duty this Fall. He is an enormous physical talent, but he doesn't have the mental part of the game down yet. And Safety is a spot where you really, really want guys who know where they are supposed to be.
I think our started in the Fall are Turner and one of Floyd or Christian at Corner, Woolfolk at Strong(Deep) Safety and either Vlad or Kovacs at Free Safety.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:25 PM ^
Thats probably why RR said he is starting out at corner. Dorsey is too great a talent to not play, especially given our shaky (at best) secondary.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:30 PM ^
Well, even if Dorsey starts out at CB, he still might only see special teams and mop-up duty. He's a great physical talent, but he is still a freshman, and if Turner and Cullen are the two best CB's, Dorsey won't get a lot of PT. He's too young to get much time at SS.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:42 PM ^
Did you see our safety play last year? Too young to play SS does not apply when our safeties were as pedestrian as they were last year.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:50 PM ^
Yes, I did see our safety play last year, and I agree it was dismal. Part of this is because after boo boo left, we didn't have another decent corner and we needed to move TW to CB. The main reason I think Dorsey won't play SS is because Woolfolk will get nearly all the snaps there.
CB is a position where being very athletic can be enough with decent coverage skills. SS (our deep safety) is a much more cranial position. Obviously, being supremely athletic helps, but isn't enough. I like the idea of Dorsey moving to the SS as a soph once Woolfolk leaves, but not this year.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:18 PM ^
When I saw the thread title I immediately thought of MY odds of starting in the secondary this coming fall.
Nov '09 - four to one
Feb '10 - kazillion to one
Nice NSD haul.
Go Blue!
February 4th, 2010 at 12:01 AM ^
It will be
CB-Turner
CB-Dorsey
S-Woolfolk
S-Kovacs
With Cullen playing nickel. I hope we don't need Mike Williams to even sniff the field and who knows, Vlad might surprise. I also thing M-Rob will be moved to LB to play Stevie Brown's position, possibly even being the starter there next year.
February 4th, 2010 at 12:08 AM ^
I agree with that for the most part, but you could realistically switch Cullen and Dorsey's roles there (Cullen at CB and Dorsey at Nickel).
I just don't think Kovacs will start now that we have competition at FS. Vlad, MRob and Carvin all have much more size and athleticism than Kovacs, and one of them will get the mental part to make it happen (my money is on Vlad).
February 4th, 2010 at 5:57 AM ^
Really? You think Robinson's going to be the starter as a true freshman at a position in which he wasn't even recruited to play?
And we didn't use a nickel back all last year. Like, not once. That's the point of having two safeties, two cornerbacks, and the highly athletic SAM position. You're practically in a nickel the entire time.
February 4th, 2010 at 11:34 AM ^
I know there's been a lot of speculation that many recruits have been offered a chance at it (Furman, for example). But who do we think is the leading candidate today?
February 4th, 2010 at 12:06 PM ^
Slightly educated guess: Brandin Hawthorne.
February 4th, 2010 at 12:22 AM ^
CB - Turner
CB - Christian
S - Dorsey
S - Woolfolk
Bring in Kovacs, Vlad, and M-Rob for situational play in the secondary. Bring in Floyd to cover bigger receivers in nickel package. Sure Dorsey is young and inexperienced. But he could get fooled, run the wrong way, stop and think, and still get closer to the play than all of our safeties from last year (save Woolfolk).
February 4th, 2010 at 11:10 AM ^
but speed makes up for a lot of mistakes.
February 4th, 2010 at 6:00 AM ^
The problem I have with Dorsey playing safety is that he tackles like a cornerback. He's not a guy who will come up and stick a ball carrier. He's the type of guy who runs up and then dives to take out your knees. That's one reason that they're probably going to start him off at corner. That tackling might come eventually, but it probably won't come as a freshman, and the best way to hide that tackling deficiency is to put him at cornerback.
February 4th, 2010 at 8:16 AM ^
We'll have to see what happens during the practices, one or two of the freshmen might be ready for college football then again maybe none of them will be ready.
February 4th, 2010 at 9:56 AM ^
re: your all-but-guarantee that Floyd starts
There's a possibility that you're correct, of course, but keep in mind that the coaches basically did everything they could to keep Floyd off the field last year. He got burned in the first game of the year, and instead of keeping Woolfolk at safety to cover his mistakes, they replaced Floyd with Woolfolk and played MIKE WILLIAMS and JORDAN KOVACS instead of Floyd.
To put it in different terms, the coaches preferred to have a RS frosh walk-on (Kovacs) and the bane of every 2009 Michigan fan's existence (Mike Williams) on the field at perhaps the most important position instead of playing Floyd.
If Kovacs and Williams are better than Floyd, then there's a very good possibility that Dorsey and/or Christian is, too.
February 4th, 2010 at 10:28 AM ^
I am surprised that Thomas Gordon was left off of everyones lists. There was some high praise reported from the coaches regarding Gordon during last season. I also believe that he redshirted, giving him 4 more good years. I think he needs to be considered over the true freshmen and right there with Vlad just due to being in the program for a year and going through another spring this year.
February 4th, 2010 at 10:56 AM ^
I think a big reason people have been excluding Gordon is because he plays the same safety spot that Woolfolk does, and a lot of us feel that he is the most sure to start.
February 4th, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^
Thomas Gordon redshirted last year and couldn't earn playing time over Kovacs, Williams, or Woolfolk. He's another safety on the roster, sure, but I doubt he's in serious contention to start.
February 4th, 2010 at 11:41 AM ^
Obviously these guys have to gradumatate high school, but when will these recruits show up on campus?
February 4th, 2010 at 12:26 PM ^
The only two SAMs scheduled to be on the roster are Brandin Hawthorne and Josh Furman. Some posters have said that Mike Jones has moved to ILB, although I find it hard to believe that they would remove Jones from such a thin position. Regardless, I'd have to guess that Hawthorne (who enrolled early and redshirted last year) will beat out Furman (who won't show up until this summer).