Odds of Space Rock Hitting Ohio Stadium

Submitted by Doctor Wolverine on

Obviously we are all hoping that the outcome of the OSU vs MSU game today will be an asteroid strike.  I am finding myself vicerally opposed to cheering for OSU to win, so that got me wondering if we could calculate the odds for the space rock thing actually happening.  For the sake of argument, lets accept that a well placed meteorite could potentially get the job done.  We know that, on average, only one small asteroid per year hits earth, but another 500 meteorites hit our planet each year.  We also know that the square footage of earth is 5,490,000,000,000,000, compared against the square footage of Ohio Stadium at 624,001.  Given these stats, we can calculate the odds of a space rock hitting Ohio Stadium in a given year at 8,799,143,095.  However, we need it to happen during the span of this 210 minute game.  There are 525,600 minutes in a year, which means that there is a 1 in 22,022,999,000,000 chance that this could happen!  Cue the Dumb and Dumber gifs.  Space Coyote, any additional thoughts on my calculations?

DrewGOBLUE

November 21st, 2015 at 4:51 PM ^

Funny that a commercial a minute ago was for the Pixar movie where they say "what if the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs missed?"

Hopefully there's a much smaller one on course to hit Ohio Stadium within 210 minutes that also doesn't miss.

xtramelanin

November 21st, 2015 at 4:55 PM ^

send me your money.   odds are, i don't know, a million to one.  there is one catch though, minimum bet is also $1MM.  

BornInA2

November 21st, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^

I can't bring myself to hope that either of these teams wins. I despise them both. I despise both coaches. The meteor strike odds to seem (ahem) astronomically low, but still somewhat higher than a targeting call for a hit on Rudock this year.

How about a frostbite inducing blizzard?

Jon06

November 21st, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^

But I realized, while trying to cheer for OSU, that I don't care who wins. We beat MSU. (Shut up with your circus-dependent facts.) If we beat OSU, too, then as far as I'm concerned we won the B1G. This has already been a great year. The Game matters again. The Game matters enough. That's true even if we have to watch MSU lose to Iowa in Indy.

MaizeNBlueTexan

November 21st, 2015 at 5:04 PM ^

Your calculations aren't bad at all.

This is what I could find.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/10/18/asteroid-earth-2032/30077…

The BEST chance of ANY asteroid hitting the Earth is in 2032 and it's a 1 in 63k chance.

The chance that it hits a specific point on the Earth on a specific day? Oh boy. That must be an astronomical number.

/shows himself out.

Edit: "Any asteroid" should read as "A catestrophic asteroid". My B.

turtleboy

November 21st, 2015 at 5:07 PM ^

After actually watching the first half of this game, I'm liking very much our odds of winning next Saturday. I just hope by some miracle the buckeyes don't derp out a loss in the second half, or drop too fast in the rankings before we beat them.

Maizen

November 21st, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^

If you aren't rooting for OSU right now you are a god damn idiot. I want to play in Indy.

It doesn't make you more of a fan rooting for "an asteroid" or "msu to lose", it makes you a fool who takes this rivalry way too seriously.

Unfiltered Manball

November 21st, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^

Ohio Stadium this afternoon will probably not happen.

But I bet with a fly-over on our return flight from Penn State we could jettison the human waste over their game- 

not that anyone there would even notice...

 

 

mgoblue78

November 21st, 2015 at 5:26 PM ^

All you need to do is pull for PSU to beat MSU next week.

If that is less distasteful.

It is for me.

But asteroid works too.

Or how about a virulent debilitating illness to infect everyone in the horseshoe this afternoon.

Just sayin'