In 2008, we had a prediction of 6-6, turn out: 3-9
In 2009, we had a prediction of 7-5, turn out: 5-7
So it seems if we predict a 8-4, we get a 7-5. If you calculate those predictions, and the turn outs.
Well then I predict we go 12-0 so we can actually go 8-4.
Can I predict 15-1 as a modest vote?
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I never said it would happen. We have a way better team than '08 by far. But I was just basing this off the old posts. 7-5 is unlikely.
If anything, the previous two years might have tempered expectation and optimism. I would think a 7-5 or 8-4 season is likely.
We do have a way better team than 08. 7 wins is also way better than 3 wins.
When you consider the inexperience and lack of depth on defense, the huge questions in the kicking game, and a wide slew of unknowns on offense, I don't know how any observer of UM football over the past two years can say that 7-5 is "unlikely." It might be "uninspiring" or "unpleasant" but not "unlikely."
This. 7-5 is the most likely thing to happen, IME.
That's usually what I get when I assign probabilities to each game. I think 8-4 is more likely than 6-6, though.
The more I think about it the more I think we will go 7-5 with losses to OSU, Wisky, Iowa, PSU, and one of ND/MSU. I think 6-6 is possible too unfortunately (so is 8-4 though). @Indiana and Purdue won't be gimme's. I think next year is when we will finally turn the corner. I'd like to think I take my homerism out of it because I said 6-6 last year, missing the Purdue game.
but I really think that Purdue will be tougher than PSU this year. I just don't see PSU taking the kind of QB drop-off they'll have in stride, even with the running game and defense they have.
I agree with this... Marve >>>> Any QB Penn State puts on the field.
There is this other part of football called defense...
However, Purdue's defense showed potential last year, if only because they were able to completely shut down TP.
They had the worst rushing defense in the Big 10 last year, and a worse ppg than we did. OSU turned the ball over five times, three of which were fumbles, so I'm really not sold on the Boiler defense. They played inspired football, but it seemed more like an abnormality mixed with luck, than potential.
I'm not sold on Kevin Newsome being able to put points on the board yet.
They are replacing their whole secondary if I'm not mistaken. People are bullish on Marve based on what he did in spring practice, but he hasn't shown anything in games yet. His stats from 2 years ago at Miami look like Sheridan's from the same season.
His stats from 2 years ago weren't great, but they were a lot better than Sheridan's stats. IMO, he is a very talented qb who, if he has really overcome his maturity issues, will be a very good college qb. Your point about Purdue's defense is well taken tho. I didn't realize they were replacing everyone.
For comparison, Marve:
What would you predict as a conference record for Team A? Yet everyone has this team pegged as #2 in the league and most have this penciled in as a loss for Michigan, despite Team A having to play in A2 and only winning last year's match-up by 2 points. I'm sure most of you have guessed it by now, but Team A is the Hawkeyes.
I see clear-cut top teams in O-state and Wisconsin. After that it's a toss-up for 3rd with Iowa, M, MSU, NW, and PSU.
If we see these teams as evenly matched and hold serve at home in these matchups, and we assume that when any of these teams play O-state or Wisconsin they lose and Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue as wins, we get:
1/2: O-state/Wisconsin (8-0/7-1)
3: PSU (6-2)
4: NW (6-2) (loses tie-breaker w/PSU based on head-to-head PSU win)
5: Michigan (5-3)
6: Iowa (4-4)
7: MSU (3-5)
8-11: I don't care
Great analysis. My head starts to feel like it might explode when we talk about NW going 6-2 in the B10. This is mostly a reflection of the insanity of the situation, not a belief that it won't happen.
Steve Sharik welcoming the common sense.
and in 1997 Michigan was preseason #14...
Preseason rankings/predictions are terrible in hindsight becuase they're based on little fact and too much expert opinion. There's just too much we don't know about the teamespecially as of late, hense the predictions in '08 and '09 being off.
I'm predicting 17-0 and 2 National titles (13-0 Division 1, 4-0 in FCS Championship tournament). We're coming for you app state, don't think you could avoid the revenge tour...
EDIT: Just for completeness sake I went back and looked at 2005 and 2006 as well. 2005 was predicted as 10-1 (we know that wasn't right...) and 2006 was predicted as 10-2 (final record of 11-2, dead on without the bowl win).
If the M-'bama game had been announced two short years ago, the commotion would've been considerably smaller; 'bama was unranked in the preseason coaches' poll, and lightly regarded in the AP. They gained quite a bit of respect in the ensuing two years. I'm of the mindset that if there's a reason we can't do the exact same thing, preseason polls are not that reason.
For the record 10-2 was not dead on. We went 11-1 then lost the bowl to USC.
You are 100% correct, my apologies.
A bowl game i was forced to relive today on espnu. :(
double post move along nothing to see here folks
I remember before '06, when everyone was thinking we'd go 8-4 or 9-3 at best.
I think predictions for us this year are far more "educated" than they were for the last two.It's hard to know what to expect from freshman and first time starters...Especially when running the offense.
More posts from you please.
I'll assume you enjoy my profound insight...
Your profound what?......Oh yes. Very enlightening.
I remember after game 1 of the 08 season (in spite of the fact that we lost) I walked out of the stadium feeling like we would win 7 that year. In hindsight I could not grasp the concept that my beloved boys in blue would ever have a season with only 3 wins. Last year after watching the fall practices on BTN and how they were all wrapped up on TF I thought for sure that they were back (and thought so even more when we got to 4-0). Now that the reality (speaking only for myself here) that we can actually lose has set in I think the predictions should be closer.
Well let's see! 6 wins first year, 7 the second and 8 in the third. That's 21 wins over a three years span. We already have 8 so that means we will be 13-0 this year. I like that.
In a serious note, I actually think 8-4 or 9-3 is more realistic.
I'm not predicting anything, but anything less than 8 wins will be a disappointment for me.
Lloyd would have won 8 games in his sleep with this schedule and been criticized the whole time
but he too frequently won 8 games, on teams with a lot more future NFL players in the two-deep than this year's squad likely has.
This is such a painful experience but I would say right now that I trust RR more than Lloyd to consistently make BCS Bowls... and WIN
Can someone earmark this statement for Most Ridiculous Comment of 2010?
Rodriguez is 8-16 over two seasons and probably won't make a BCS bowl this season. Yeesh...
Hey man, Lloyd only has 1 National Title and a handful of Big Ten Titles! He was obviously a terrible coach......
No need to remember Lloyd's contributions, apparently. What consistently amazes me is that he pulled much of his success off with Mike DeBord as the OC...
I am still laughing (ruefully) about how Lloyd "too frequently won 8 games" every year. Yeah, that really sucked didn't it?
In 13 years, and only once finished outside either main poll's top 25 at the end of the season. Call whatever you want for the talent his teams had, that's damn impressive, and many of those seasons featured brutal schedules much harder than our current one. In summary, him winning 8 or fewer games less than a quarter of the time wasn't too frequent, especially when you keep in mind that his two eight win seasons he was 8-3 going into the bowl game. If you want you can give him the advantage of adding another baby seal game like teams get now so he could have had 9 wins or more his first 10 years though, then find something else to complain about happening "too frequently"
I understand, OP, that prediction was 6-6 and 7-5 in 08 and 09; however, I think you have to understand that it is impossible for me to even remotely consider Michigan under 500 in any prediction in any circumstances. I suspect this may be true for others socialized in a world where Michigan always came out of the OOC schedule 3 and 1 at worst for all of their formative years. I am hardwired to write down 9-3 at a *minimum* because of this...whether or not it makes rational sense.
What i think, is that we killed our own chances in about 4 games last season. It was interceptions from poor line play, and a true Frosh QB. It was missed routes, and blown plays. I do not see that happening this year, we will have improved line play. The QB's are a year wiser. The receivers routes looked a lot better in this years spring game, then last year. I know i may be being bold here, but i agree when people predict an 8-4 season. I believe we can achieve it, if we play clean and do not turn the ball over a lot. I can not speak for everyone, but i am really really excited for this season.
In all fairness, I think that the record of a RR-coached team in general is very hard to predict. We're talking about a coach who has regularly had very poor starts at his last two previous head coaching stops, followed by an incredible turnaround. And let's be honest -- how many games can we point to over the last two years that we potentially could have won if it weren't for one or two backbreaking plays (MSU last year / Illinois last year / Purdue two years ago / even PSU two years ago / etc)? This is a team that is on the cusp of success, and has been for two seasons.
IMO, we're all still drinking kool-aid. Maybe it is watered down a bit from the pure crystaline form we ingested the last two years, but still ...
There is still too much youth, and risk. Beyond depth, youth, and not quite the right talent issues in 2007 and 2008 (I'm being nice, not naive), we were unlucky going into the second half of the conference schedule. Adding to the risk: we supposedly have one of the toughest non-conference schedules, and I'd bet we're up there with our conference schedule as well. With a few injuries in the wrong places, we could be facing another "dead man walking" end to the season.
Now, if we get lucky in the injury department, and if Gibbons and Hagerup get 'er done in the kicking department, and if our stable of running backs delivers one or two breakout guys who can manage a full season without debillitating injuries, and finally if our young defense actually pulls it together and our opponents don't figure out the simplified scheme, then maybe we do put up 8 or 9, or maybe even with a bowl 10 wins. (Iowa, PSU, MSU, ND, Purdue all candidate wins in there.)
I know I'm excited, and I will be rooting like hell for this team to win, but they really need to show me they can put it together, and hold it together down the conference stretch.